TdF 2017
DeVlaeminck
Posts: 9,108
No Nibali by the looks of it, more likely to ride Vuelta. Any more favourites confirmed their plans yet - Porte and Froome looking to be there, Quintana too - Aru? Dumoulin? Is Valverde a co-leader or a super domestique and if the latter has anyone told him ?
Quintana 13/2 with some bookies - despite the route looking reasonably favourable. The Galibier stage looks like a beast and of Quintana can get away anywhere it's at altitude on a steep winding climb like that side of the Galibier but once on the Lauteret the road is fairly wide and maybe a chance for any gap to be reduced?
The next day a finish on top of the Izoard, again if you like high altitude this should suit. I've never been up the Izoard but I'm assuming Movistar's tactics are going to be keep within range of Froome and try and win the race on these two stages.
Quintana 13/2 with some bookies - despite the route looking reasonably favourable. The Galibier stage looks like a beast and of Quintana can get away anywhere it's at altitude on a steep winding climb like that side of the Galibier but once on the Lauteret the road is fairly wide and maybe a chance for any gap to be reduced?
The next day a finish on top of the Izoard, again if you like high altitude this should suit. I've never been up the Izoard but I'm assuming Movistar's tactics are going to be keep within range of Froome and try and win the race on these two stages.
[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
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Cant see the Galibier stage being the decider - everyone will keep their powder dry til the last few km and then it'll come back together on the descent.
As you say - the next day with a mountain top finish - that will be more interesting. Last climb of the tour.
And then we have the TT on the Saturday. Hang on - its like the Giro part deux !0 -
Some profiles here
http://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/racin ... ute-192041
Unimpressed by the 100km stage.0 -
I'm probably the last on this but just noticed La Course is being run on the Izoard this year, presumably the same stage ?[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]0
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Appears to be quite a few sprinter stages. Cav would have been looking to close in on the record if he hadn't been ill.0
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Mad_Malx wrote:Appears to be quite a few sprinter stages. Cav would have been looking to close in on the record if he hadn't been ill.
(The above was, of course, a comical remark on the number of pan flat stages. I'm aware the math doesn't add up).Team My Man 2018: David gaudu, Pierre Latour, Romain Bardet, Thibaut pinot, Alexandre Geniez, Florian Senechal, Warren Barguil, Benoit Cosnefroy0 -
I assume Bardet and Chaves will be riding, since they are down for the Critérium du Dauphiné0
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The_Boy wrote:Mad_Malx wrote:Appears to be quite a few sprinter stages. Cav would have been looking to close in on the record if he hadn't been ill.
(The above was, of course, a comical remark on the number of pan flat stages. I'm aware the math doesn't add up).
How about Gaviria? It's quite the dilemma for QSF, even though Kittel is assumed to have seniority in the team for now, if that arrangement was to remain for next year, then you can bet Gaviria would be off.0 -
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Keep pressing quote instead of edit.
Keeps my post count up though.0 -
Mad_Malx wrote:The_Boy wrote:Mad_Malx wrote:Appears to be quite a few sprinter stages. Cav would have been looking to close in on the record if he hadn't been ill.
(The above was, of course, a comical remark on the number of pan flat stages. I'm aware the math doesn't add up).
I said he would be looking, not that he would necessarily win any....
But with so many as you note, there are bound to be days when different riders get chances.
Edited to convey my meaning better.0 -
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9 sprint stages and just 4 proper mountain stages, plus a couple of faux mountain jobs.
Not exactly the race I would pick to start televising from cover to cover.
Probably will end a bit of a diamond studded turd."Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.0 -
Maybe Sagan wins yellow.PTP Champion 2019, 2022 & 20230
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Suppose I should get the PTP started soonish.
I'm away the whole first week so I won't be able to do as good a job as Rich did for the Giro!
My money's on Froome FWIW.0 -
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Stage 3 - Alejandro Valverde
... oh sorry this isn't actually the PTP thread yet ;-)
Rule No.10 // It never gets easier, you just go faster0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:Basically we need Froome to bail fairly early, else it's gonna be a looong 3 weeks.Twitter: @RichN950
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Rick Chasey wrote:Basically we need Froome to bail fairly early, else it's gonna be a looong 3 weeks.
Exactly what I thought Rick.
I don't think Contador will be capable of doing much in GC terms but I'm looking forward to seeing someone ride with a bit of panache again. He and Valverde are always entertaining at least, the polar opposite of Quintana!0 -
RichN95 wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:Basically we need Froome to bail fairly early, else it's gonna be a looong 3 weeks.
Porte can make it look like a competition.
How many TTs has Porte beaten Froome on?0 -
Some odds below. There are probably better available for each individual rider, but it gives some insight into the order of the favourites
Should be interesting as Froome hasn't shown much form this year, Porte has never shown GT form (except 5th place one year), Quintana has just ridden the Giro, everyone thinks Contador is too old and Valverde can't ride at altitude. Bardet anyone?
Chris Froome 10/11
Richie Porte 4/1
Nairo Quintana 9/2
Alberto Contador 10/1
Alejandro Valverde 14/1
Romain Bardet 18/1
Johan Esteban Chaves 25/1
Fabio Aru 33/1
Ilnur Zakarin 50/1
Simon Yates 50/1
Vincenzo Nibali 50/1
Thibaut Pinot 50/1
Geraint Thomas 66/1
Louis Meintjes 100/1
Miguel Angel Lopez 100/1
Bauke Mollema 100/1
Rafal Majka 100/1
Steven Kruijswijk 150/10 -
Rick Chasey wrote:How many TTs has Porte beaten Froome on?
Porte's big advantage is that he's not intimidated by Froome. He knows exactly how they match up to each other.Twitter: @RichN950 -
RichN95 wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:How many TTs has Porte beaten Froome on?
Porte's big advantage is that he's not intimidated by Froome. He knows exactly how they match up to each other.
Doesn't he know that he can't beat him then?0 -
Looks like a perfect route to just watch the last 30 minutes of most stages. There will no doubt be a few crashes in the first week, but other than that it could be rather dull. If someone was the victim of a crash or lost a couple of minutes in crosswinds there aren't many opportunities to get the time back in the mountains.0
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Surprised Chaves odds are better than Nibali, Aru and Pinot. I know two of them have just ridden the Giro but still.
As much as some don't seem to like Orica I do think tactically they are very good and all seem to buy in to the common goal. A podium for Chaves would be great.0 -
Take Froome out of the equation and my money would be on Quintana even with a giro in his legs. I just think the Galibier and Izoard stages late on give him a chance to leapfrog some of the other challengers.
Porte has a question mark over his consistency, Contador his age and Aru if he rides his fitness whereas Quintana seems to be fairly consistent.[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]0 -
Is this Tour deliberately TT light to reduce Frome's advantage?0
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Not sure I agree with the sentiments regarding the short(er) stages, I think they make for better racing.
Whenever they have a mega 250km-stage with 5000m of climbing, all the GC-contenders crap themselves and trundle around as though it's a sportive because they're (rightfully) scared of losing bucket-loads of time. On a short, punchy stage everyone is all-guns-blazing because they're all on fresh legs and want to steal the stage and/or a few seconds.
The 100km stage in particular looks like it's designed for a breakaway though; the organisers have to put in something for the non-GC teams to fight for.0