TdF 2017

DeVlaeminck
DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,107
edited June 2017 in Pro race
No Nibali by the looks of it, more likely to ride Vuelta. Any more favourites confirmed their plans yet - Porte and Froome looking to be there, Quintana too - Aru? Dumoulin? Is Valverde a co-leader or a super domestique and if the latter has anyone told him ?

Quintana 13/2 with some bookies - despite the route looking reasonably favourable. The Galibier stage looks like a beast and of Quintana can get away anywhere it's at altitude on a steep winding climb like that side of the Galibier but once on the Lauteret the road is fairly wide and maybe a chance for any gap to be reduced?
The next day a finish on top of the Izoard, again if you like high altitude this should suit. I've never been up the Izoard but I'm assuming Movistar's tactics are going to be keep within range of Froome and try and win the race on these two stages.
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Comments

  • fenix
    fenix Posts: 5,437
    Cant see the Galibier stage being the decider - everyone will keep their powder dry til the last few km and then it'll come back together on the descent.

    As you say - the next day with a mountain top finish - that will be more interesting. Last climb of the tour.

    And then we have the TT on the Saturday. Hang on - its like the Giro part deux !
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,939
    Some profiles here

    http://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/racin ... ute-192041

    Unimpressed by the 100km stage.
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,107
    I'm probably the last on this but just noticed La Course is being run on the Izoard this year, presumably the same stage ?
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,702
    DeV - even for fatsos like me the Izoard (from Briancon, so not the way they re doing it) is a lovely climb.

    S17 is a cyclo tourists wet dream too
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • Mad_Malx
    Mad_Malx Posts: 5,183
    Appears to be quite a few sprinter stages. Cav would have been looking to close in on the record if he hadn't been ill.
  • The_Boy
    The_Boy Posts: 3,099
    Mad_Malx wrote:
    Appears to be quite a few sprinter stages. Cav would have been looking to close in on the record if he hadn't been ill.
    So many, in fact, that it will be Kittel closing in on the record instead.

    (The above was, of course, a comical remark on the number of pan flat stages. I'm aware the math doesn't add up).
    Team My Man 2018: David gaudu, Pierre Latour, Romain Bardet, Thibaut pinot, Alexandre Geniez, Florian Senechal, Warren Barguil, Benoit Cosnefroy
  • RonB
    RonB Posts: 3,984
    I assume Bardet and Chaves will be riding, since they are down for the Critérium du Dauphiné
  • bluemoonday
    bluemoonday Posts: 3
    The_Boy wrote:
    Mad_Malx wrote:
    Appears to be quite a few sprinter stages. Cav would have been looking to close in on the record if he hadn't been ill.
    So many, in fact, that it will be Kittel closing in on the record instead.

    (The above was, of course, a comical remark on the number of pan flat stages. I'm aware the math doesn't add up).

    How about Gaviria? It's quite the dilemma for QSF, even though Kittel is assumed to have seniority in the team for now, if that arrangement was to remain for next year, then you can bet Gaviria would be off.
  • Mad_Malx
    Mad_Malx Posts: 5,183
    edited May 2017
    Delete
    Keep pressing quote instead of edit.
    Keeps my post count up though.
  • Mad_Malx
    Mad_Malx Posts: 5,183
    Mad_Malx wrote:
    The_Boy wrote:
    Mad_Malx wrote:
    Appears to be quite a few sprinter stages. Cav would have been looking to close in on the record if he hadn't been ill.
    So many, in fact, that it will be Kittel closing in on the record instead.

    (The above was, of course, a comical remark on the number of pan flat stages. I'm aware the math doesn't add up).

    I said he would be looking, not that he would necessarily win any....
    But with so many as you note, there are bound to be days when different riders get chances.

    Edited to convey my meaning better.
  • Mad_Malx
    Mad_Malx Posts: 5,183
    Delete
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,730
    9 sprint stages and just 4 proper mountain stages, plus a couple of faux mountain jobs.
    Not exactly the race I would pick to start televising from cover to cover.
    Probably will end a bit of a diamond studded turd.
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • m.r.m.
    m.r.m. Posts: 3,475
    Maybe Sagan wins yellow. :lol::mrgreen:
    PTP Champion 2019, 2022 & 2023
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,438
    Suppose I should get the PTP started soonish.

    I'm away the whole first week so I won't be able to do as good a job as Rich did for the Giro!

    My money's on Froome FWIW.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,257
    The full maps and profiles are now available

    Stage 5 looks like a typical Sky pre-planned destruction stage.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    Basically we need Froome to bail fairly early, else it's gonna be a looong 3 weeks.
    _
  • ContrelaMontre
    ContrelaMontre Posts: 3,027
    Stage 3 - Alejandro Valverde

    ... oh sorry this isn't actually the PTP thread yet ;-)
    Rule No.10 // It never gets easier, you just go faster
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,257
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Basically we need Froome to bail fairly early, else it's gonna be a looong 3 weeks.
    Laugh if you will, but I genuinely believe Richie Porte can really trouble him.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • craigus89
    craigus89 Posts: 887
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Basically we need Froome to bail fairly early, else it's gonna be a looong 3 weeks.

    Exactly what I thought Rick.

    I don't think Contador will be capable of doing much in GC terms but I'm looking forward to seeing someone ride with a bit of panache again. He and Valverde are always entertaining at least, the polar opposite of Quintana!
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    RichN95 wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Basically we need Froome to bail fairly early, else it's gonna be a looong 3 weeks.
    Laugh if you will, but I genuinely believe Richie Porte can really trouble him.

    Porte can make it look like a competition.

    How many TTs has Porte beaten Froome on?
    _
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,939
    Some odds below. There are probably better available for each individual rider, but it gives some insight into the order of the favourites

    Should be interesting as Froome hasn't shown much form this year, Porte has never shown GT form (except 5th place one year), Quintana has just ridden the Giro, everyone thinks Contador is too old and Valverde can't ride at altitude. Bardet anyone?

    Chris Froome 10/11
    Richie Porte 4/1
    Nairo Quintana 9/2
    Alberto Contador 10/1
    Alejandro Valverde 14/1
    Romain Bardet 18/1
    Johan Esteban Chaves 25/1
    Fabio Aru 33/1
    Ilnur Zakarin 50/1
    Simon Yates 50/1
    Vincenzo Nibali 50/1
    Thibaut Pinot 50/1
    Geraint Thomas 66/1
    Louis Meintjes 100/1
    Miguel Angel Lopez 100/1
    Bauke Mollema 100/1
    Rafal Majka 100/1
    Steven Kruijswijk 150/1
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,257
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    How many TTs has Porte beaten Froome on?
    Probably not many, but he's close enough that Froome can't bank on time gains.
    Porte's big advantage is that he's not intimidated by Froome. He knows exactly how they match up to each other.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,939
    RichN95 wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    How many TTs has Porte beaten Froome on?
    Probably not many, but he's close enough that Froome can't bank on time gains.
    Porte's big advantage is that he's not intimidated by Froome. He knows exactly how they match up to each other.

    Doesn't he know that he can't beat him then?
  • squired
    squired Posts: 1,153
    Looks like a perfect route to just watch the last 30 minutes of most stages. There will no doubt be a few crashes in the first week, but other than that it could be rather dull. If someone was the victim of a crash or lost a couple of minutes in crosswinds there aren't many opportunities to get the time back in the mountains.
  • craigus89
    craigus89 Posts: 887
    Surprised Chaves odds are better than Nibali, Aru and Pinot. I know two of them have just ridden the Giro but still.

    As much as some don't seem to like Orica I do think tactically they are very good and all seem to buy in to the common goal. A podium for Chaves would be great.
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,107
    Take Froome out of the equation and my money would be on Quintana even with a giro in his legs. I just think the Galibier and Izoard stages late on give him a chance to leapfrog some of the other challengers.

    Porte has a question mark over his consistency, Contador his age and Aru if he rides his fitness whereas Quintana seems to be fairly consistent.
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,257
    Craigus89 wrote:
    Surprised Chaves odds are better than Nibali, Aru and Pinot. I know two of them have just ridden the Giro but still.
    Nibali says he's likely to skip the Tour.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • Mad_Malx
    Mad_Malx Posts: 5,183
    Is this Tour deliberately TT light to reduce Frome's advantage?
  • gsk82
    gsk82 Posts: 3,606
    Mad_Malx wrote:
    Is this Tour deliberately TT light to reduce Frome's advantage?

    It's been deliberately TT light since Froome won his first to try to stop him dominating.
    "Unfortunately these days a lot of people don’t understand the real quality of a bike" Ernesto Colnago
  • buckmulligan
    buckmulligan Posts: 1,031
    Not sure I agree with the sentiments regarding the short(er) stages, I think they make for better racing.

    Whenever they have a mega 250km-stage with 5000m of climbing, all the GC-contenders crap themselves and trundle around as though it's a sportive because they're (rightfully) scared of losing bucket-loads of time. On a short, punchy stage everyone is all-guns-blazing because they're all on fresh legs and want to steal the stage and/or a few seconds.

    The 100km stage in particular looks like it's designed for a breakaway though; the organisers have to put in something for the non-GC teams to fight for.

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