snap general election?

bendertherobot

bompington wrote:

Here's a hypothetical suggestion: what would happen if the roles were reversed and Corbyn managed to persuade his Shinner pals to take their seats and prop up a minority Labour government?

For the most part, I'd guess, we'd just see mirror image reactions. But I'm sure there would be subtle differences: for example I bet we'd be hearing no end of how bold and refreshing it was for him to be reaching out like this - how many people are saying the same about May and the DUP?

Well, here's a hypothetical answer. If he got that lot to pledge allegiance to the Queen, then he'd get absolutely the best deal from the EU

briantrumpet

Blimey, even Gove is admitting it wasn't a great result for the Tories: "It’s also the case that we need to recognise that we as Conservatives were not returned with a majority." So at least he can be ruled out as being Stevo's alter ego.

Maybe this closer: https://www.facebook.com/BBCPolitics/vi ... nref=story

pblakeney

briantrumpet wrote:

Blimey, even Gove is admitting it wasn't a great result for the Tories: "It’s also the case that we need to recognise that we as Conservatives were not returned with a majority." So at least he can be ruled out as being Stevo's alter ego.

Maybe this closer: https://www.facebook.com/BBCPolitics/vi ... nref=story

I quite like that you had Gove as Stevo's alter ego and not vice versa.

bendertherobot

bendertherobot wrote:

bompington wrote:

Here's a hypothetical suggestion: what would happen if the roles were reversed and Corbyn managed to persuade his Shinner pals to take their seats and prop up a minority Labour government?

For the most part, I'd guess, we'd just see mirror image reactions. But I'm sure there would be subtle differences: for example I bet we'd be hearing no end of how bold and refreshing it was for him to be reaching out like this - how many people are saying the same about May and the DUP?

Well, here's a hypothetical answer. If he got that lot to pledge allegiance to the Queen, then he'd get absolutely the best deal from the EU

I have to say, mea culpa, I hadn't realised that Sinn Fein have, it is claimed, flown over to take up their offices, if not seats.

meanredspider

bendertherobot wrote:

bendertherobot wrote:

bompington wrote:

Here's a hypothetical suggestion: what would happen if the roles were reversed and Corbyn managed to persuade his Shinner pals to take their seats and prop up a minority Labour government?

For the most part, I'd guess, we'd just see mirror image reactions. But I'm sure there would be subtle differences: for example I bet we'd be hearing no end of how bold and refreshing it was for him to be reaching out like this - how many people are saying the same about May and the DUP?

Well, here's a hypothetical answer. If he got that lot to pledge allegiance to the Queen, then he'd get absolutely the best deal from the EU

I have to say, mea culpa, I hadn't realised that Sinn Fein have, it is claimed, flown over to take up their offices, if not seats.

Have they not had offices before? I feel sure they have. They just don't take their seats saying that it would be hypocritical to argue that Westminster should be involved in Ireland whilst themselves being involved with the UK.

rick_chasey

Tory supporters bash labour supporters for campaigning to end austerity and boost public spending.

Tory announce on front of the times they plan to end austerity and boost public spending.

graeme_s-2

bendertherobot wrote:

I have to say, mea culpa, I hadn't realised that Sinn Fein have, it is claimed, flown over to take up their offices, if not seats.

They've had/used Westminster offices for over 15 years
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/1707761.stm

bendertherobot

Graeme_S wrote:

bendertherobot wrote:

I have to say, mea culpa, I hadn't realised that Sinn Fein have, it is claimed, flown over to take up their offices, if not seats.

They've had/used Westminster offices for over 15 years
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/1707761.stm

Yes. When typing I confess I'd thought of adding in (if not seats). I don't think it's unusual, but the spin and timing might be indicative of something more. I still hold onto hell freezing over as being more likely though.

bendertherobot

Rick Chasey wrote:

Tory supporters bash labour supporters for campaigning to end austerity and boost public spending.

Tory announce on front of the times they plan to end austerity and boost public spending.

Magic

Money

Tree

ben@31

FocusZing wrote:

That's what success and winning looks like.

Which ones are the DUP who holds the potential Government to ransom or no deal.

Is that a dead animal Theresa May is wearing?

FocusZing

If you look carefully in the fireplace...

ben@31

I wondered where Jeremy Hunt disappeared to. ""For some reason"" the slayer of our NHS mysteriously disappeared and kept quiet during the election campaigning.

http://metro.co.uk/2017/06/11/a-bbc-new ... v-6701815/

bendertherobot

ben@31 wrote:

I wondered where Jeremy Hunt disappeared to. ""For some reason"" the slayer of our NHS mysteriously disappeared and kept quiet during the election campaigning.

http://metro.co.uk/2017/06/11/a-bbc-new ... v-6701815/

Read that first comment thread through.

dinyull

bendertherobot wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Tory supporters bash labour supporters for campaigning to end austerity and boost public spending.

Tory announce on front of the times they plan to end austerity and boost public spending.

Magic

Money

Tree

https://twitter.com/tristandross/status/870234555697029120?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sbtv.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fpolitical-news%2Fsomeones-mashed-skeptas-shutdown-clip-artist-taxi-driver-blasting-tories%2F

surrey_commuter

Rick Chasey wrote:

Tory supporters bash labour supporters for campaigning to end austerity and boost public spending.

Tory announce on front of the times they plan to end austerity and boost public spending.

amazing that we went from clearing deficit by end of Parliament, to the end of the next parliament to the end of the next Parliament to oh it does not really matter and we will live with a perpetual deficit. They should listen to John Snow then they would realise that Winter's coming

Jez mon

Surrey Commuter wrote:

effectively you are denying the existence of economics

I hate to admit it. This is sort of an area where I think Gove has a clumsy point, and to an extent Coopster.

As I said further up the page, all models are wrong, but some are wrong usefully. As an engineering analyst, this isn't an uncomfortable concept for me. I'm happy that technically, the FEA and CFD models that were used when my plane was being built are, technically, wrong.

Economists can't predict the events that really make differences to the markets (the global financial crises, what happens when new tech emerges). So by their nature, the long term economic models are "wrong".

Of course, we need to temper that with the fact that we can make basic predictions. Making trade harder will reduce trade, and this is bad. We also need to bear in mind that we can never possibly know what the "true" effects of Brexit were. The economy might collapse/boom in 5 years. Had we stayed in, that still might of happened, annoyingly we can't possibly know!

rick_chasey

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Tory supporters bash labour supporters for campaigning to end austerity and boost public spending.

Tory announce on front of the times they plan to end austerity and boost public spending.

amazing that we went from clearing deficit by end of Parliament, to the end of the next parliament to the end of the next Parliament to oh it does not really matter and we will live with a perpetual deficit. They should listen to John Snow then they would realise that Winter's coming

What a party.

briantrumpet

Jez mon wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

effectively you are denying the existence of economics

I hate to admit it. This is sort of an area where I think Gove has a clumsy point, and to an extent Coopster.

As I said further up the page, all models are wrong, but some are wrong usefully. As an engineering analyst, this isn't an uncomfortable concept for me. I'm happy that technically, the FEA and CFD models that were used when my plane was being built are, technically, wrong.

Economists can't predict the events that really make differences to the markets (the global financial crises, what happens when new tech emerges). So by their nature, the long term economic models are "wrong".

Of course, we need to temper that with the fact that we can make basic predictions. Making trade harder will reduce trade, and this is bad. We also need to bear in mind that we can never possibly know what the "true" effects of Brexit were. The economy might collapse/boom in 5 years. Had we stayed in, that still might of happened, annoyingly we can't possibly know!

Of course the biggest variable in economics is humans making what they might claim to be rational judgements but who are being driven by emotions which are in turn affected by perceptions of what others are doing & thinking. The question is whether we have systems & economic environments in which those emotion-driven choices can sink the whole economy.

Jez mon

Rick Chasey wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Tory supporters bash labour supporters for campaigning to end austerity and boost public spending.

Tory announce on front of the times they plan to end austerity and boost public spending.

amazing that we went from clearing deficit by end of Parliament, to the end of the next parliament to the end of the next Parliament to oh it does not really matter and we will live with a perpetual deficit. They should listen to John Snow then they would realise that Winter's coming

What a party.

With this at least we can find economists who are in favour of either course of action. With Brexit, the economic outlook is universally panned...

ben@31

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Tory supporters bash labour supporters for campaigning to end austerity and boost public spending.

Tory announce on front of the times they plan to end austerity and boost public spending.

amazing that we went from clearing deficit by end of Parliament, to the end of the next parliament to the end of the next Parliament to oh it does not really matter and we will live with a perpetual deficit. They should listen to John Snow then they would realise that Winter's coming

Clearing such a debt is impossible. As we are borrowing money to meet interest payments. We would need to get rid of fiat currency and sell solid real items, but we do not have enough trees or oil or widgets to sell that would raise the required amount.
Besides the whole banking system works on debt, that is how they make a profit... Print some imaginary money out of thin air, loan more money than you actually have to customers and hope they pay it back with interest.

surrey_commuter

Jez mon wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

effectively you are denying the existence of economics

I hate to admit it. This is sort of an area where I think Gove has a clumsy point, and to an extent Coopster.

As I said further up the page, all models are wrong, but some are wrong usefully. As an engineering analyst, this isn't an uncomfortable concept for me. I'm happy that technically, the FEA and CFD models that were used when my plane was being built are, technically, wrong.

Economists can't predict the events that really make differences to the markets (the global financial crises, what happens when new tech emerges). So by their nature, the long term economic models are "wrong".

Of course, we need to temper that with the fact that we can make basic predictions. Making trade harder will reduce trade, and this is bad. We also need to bear in mind that we can never possibly know what the "true" effects of Brexit were. The economy might collapse/boom in 5 years. Had we stayed in, that still might of happened, annoyingly we can't possibly know!

I feel we are agreeing and disagreeing.
Would you trust a forecast that said what the price for oil would be in 5 years time?
Would you trust a forecast of the impact on the UK economy of an increase in oil prices to $100 a barrel? it may not be bang on (due to so many variables) but it will tell you the broad picture.

Now ask an economist what the impact of Brexit will be and he will look at the known variables
Cutting yourself from your major export market - exports down
Sterling falling due to political uncertainty - inflation up

you get the picture

surrey_commuter

ben@31 wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Tory supporters bash labour supporters for campaigning to end austerity and boost public spending.

Tory announce on front of the times they plan to end austerity and boost public spending.

amazing that we went from clearing deficit by end of Parliament, to the end of the next parliament to the end of the next Parliament to oh it does not really matter and we will live with a perpetual deficit. They should listen to John Snow then they would realise that Winter's coming

Clearing such a debt is impossible. As we are borrowing money to meet interest payments. We would need to get rid of fiat currency and sell solid real items, but we do not have enough trees or oil or widgets to sell that would raise the required amount.
Besides the whole banking system works on debt, that is how they make a profit... Print some imaginary money out of thin air, loan more money than you actually have to customers and hope they pay it back with interest.

I said deficit not debt

not sure if your comment about the banking system is serious so will not add to it

kingstongraham

I cannot predict with any certainty whether I will weigh more in a year's time than I do today.

I also cannot predict with any accuracy what my weight will be if I stop exercising and eat burger and chips for every meal.

I can predict with some degree of confidence that my weight will be higher if I take that course of action, than if I don't.

slowbike

KingstonGraham wrote:

I cannot predict with any certainty whether I will weigh more in a year's time than I do today.

I also cannot predict with any accuracy what my weight will be if I stop exercising and eat burger and chips for every meal.

I can predict with some degree of confidence that my weight will be higher if I take that course of action, than if I don't.

That's a bit simplistic as you can make very good predictions - by measuring the amount of calories you're intending to consume each meal and comparing that to your daily requirement.
What would make it harder to predict is if you stopped your planned excercise but instead, drove to your supermarket, parking as close to the entrance as possible, had to run from the moment you left the car to the moment you got back in - even if that meant running on the spot - to go and purchase your burger, bun and chips - buying whichever had the best offer on at that time.
You couldn't predict with any certainty, the amount of running you'd have to do each visit - you may not be able to park very close, the shop may be busy and you'd not be able to calculate the calorific intake of the burgers & chips because the varieties on offer would change every few days.
and even that doesn't compare with the variables required to predict our economic status in 10 years time.

kingstongraham

Slowbike wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

I cannot predict with any certainty whether I will weigh more in a year's time than I do today.

I also cannot predict with any accuracy what my weight will be if I stop exercising and eat burger and chips for every meal.

I can predict with some degree of confidence that my weight will be higher if I take that course of action, than if I don't.

That's a bit simplistic as you can make very good predictions - by measuring the amount of calories you're intending to consume each meal and comparing that to your daily requirement.
What would make it harder to predict is if you stopped your planned excercise but instead, drove to your supermarket, parking as close to the entrance as possible, had to run from the moment you left the car to the moment you got back in - even if that meant running on the spot - to go and purchase your burger, bun and chips - buying whichever had the best offer on at that time.
You couldn't predict with any certainty, the amount of running you'd have to do each visit - you may not be able to park very close, the shop may be busy and you'd not be able to calculate the calorific intake of the burgers & chips because the varieties on offer would change every few days.
and even that doesn't compare with the variables required to predict our economic status in 10 years time.

No, I might break both my legs in a car accident so not be able to walk anywhere. I might lose my car in a gambling den and have to walk everywhere. In both these situations, eating burgers will make me larger than not eating burgers.

I don't know what I'll weigh, but I know that the effect of overeating will be positive to that outcome.

The bit in bold is exactly the point. You cannot predict what the economy will do over the next 10 years - but you can be pretty sure that leaving the EU will mean it is smaller than it would be if we hadn't left.

TheBigBean

Which economists foretold the economic blip of 2008? The public remembers this.

TheBigBean

KingstonGraham wrote:

...eating burgers will make me larger than not eating burgers.

Burgers don't have that many calories. You need the bun and lots of toppings.

rick_chasey

TheBigBean wrote:

Which economists foretold the economic blip of 2008? The public remembers this.

In fairness to Economists, they're not mystic meg.

They have a set of tools and rules which, to varying degrees, model what happens.

A lot of it is based in sound evidence and logic.

They're not supposed to be experts on esoteric financial services.

If you asked an Economist what would happen if there was a massive credit crunch and liquidity crisis in the financial system, relating to bad mortgage lending, I bet they'd have given you a fairly accurate response.

schlepcycling

TheBigBean wrote:

Which economists foretold the economic blip of 2008? The public remembers this.

Steve Keen

kingstongraham

TheBigBean wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

...eating burgers will make me larger than not eating burgers.

Burgers don't have that many calories. You need the bun and lots of toppings.

Noted.