How good is Chris Froome?

poptart242

Bumo_b wrote:

You mean the world isn't flat?

Of course not, otherwise Dowsett would have been on the podium in Rome.

phreak

On paper Porte should be a threat, but he's never managed to pull it all together for a 3 week race. He's 33 now and his best GC result was 5th in 2016, when he was over 5 minutes behind Froome, and behind Adam Yates.

Contrast that with his one week record, and he's won 4 events, podium'ed several times and generally always been a challenger, so you'd be mad to bet against in him a one week race, but it seems a stretch to put him as a favourite of a 3 week one based upon the evidence.

poptart242

Porte has been deeply unconvincing to me this season.

To be fair, the same could have been said of Froome until the Zoncolan.

Heart says Bardet, head says Nibali.

lostboysaint

Poptart242 wrote:

Porte has been deeply unconvincing to me this season.

To be fair, the same could have been said of Froome until the Zoncolan.

Heart says Bardet, head says Nibali.

Only this season?!

phreak

Surely Quintana will be a threat? He's shown he can win a GT, and the Movistar team will be incredibly strong. The question will be whether they deploy a different tactic to the usual high speed mountain train as they have so many riders who can attack in the hills. Will we see Landa et al doing more Contador style attacks? Valverde sniping for seconds here and there ala Yates? Then Quintana hoping to capitalise after Sky are knackered by putting out so many fires.

DeVlaeminck

I reckon Landa is the pick of those who will challenge Froome.

Longer term I reckon Dumoulin is going to win one at some point - the Giro probably suits him less than the Tour and lack of a team and questionable tactical decisions (at least in hindsight) probably cost him this Giro.

phreak

I wonder if Dumoulin might end up being similar to Cadel Evans. A gutsy rider who relies mainly on his time trial but without a real punch in the mountains who is let down by a fairly weak team. He'll be there or there abouts but seldom on the top step.

ddraver

He needs to leave Sunweb or convince them to get him some proper mountain domestiques...

Bumo_b

I fancy a bit of Nibali at 7/1 in the betting without Froome at the moment

RichN95.

phreak wrote:

I wonder if Dumoulin might end up being similar to Cadel Evans. A gutsy rider who relies mainly on his time trial but without a real punch in the mountains who is let down by a fairly weak team. He'll be there or there abouts but seldom on the top step.

He's a victim of modern course design. Give him a Tour like Indurain or Armstrong usually got and he'd win multiple Tours.

joey54321

RichN95 wrote:

phreak wrote:

I wonder if Dumoulin might end up being similar to Cadel Evans. A gutsy rider who relies mainly on his time trial but without a real punch in the mountains who is let down by a fairly weak team. He'll be there or there abouts but seldom on the top step.

He's a victim of modern course design. Give him a Tour like Indurain or Armstrong usually got and he'd win multiple Tours.

And Wiggins in 2012. Unfortunately for TD, he is a bit of a victim of the Team Sky/Wiggins/Froome domination. The courses are more and more trying to be unpredictable and explosive.

RichN95.

joey54321 wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

phreak wrote:

I wonder if Dumoulin might end up being similar to Cadel Evans. A gutsy rider who relies mainly on his time trial but without a real punch in the mountains who is let down by a fairly weak team. He'll be there or there abouts but seldom on the top step.

He's a victim of modern course design. Give him a Tour like Indurain or Armstrong usually got and he'd win multiple Tours.

And Wiggins in 2012. Unfortunately for TD, he is a bit of a victim of the Team Sky/Wiggins/Froome domination. The courses are more and more trying to be unpredictable and explosive.

That's not due to Sky. The amount of time trialling dropped when Christian Prudhomme (the first director to come from TV rather than newspapers) took over the race in the mid 2000s. 2012 was an exception even then.

joey54321

RichN95 wrote:

joey54321 wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

phreak wrote:

I wonder if Dumoulin might end up being similar to Cadel Evans. A gutsy rider who relies mainly on his time trial but without a real punch in the mountains who is let down by a fairly weak team. He'll be there or there abouts but seldom on the top step.

He's a victim of modern course design. Give him a Tour like Indurain or Armstrong usually got and he'd win multiple Tours.

And Wiggins in 2012. Unfortunately for TD, he is a bit of a victim of the Team Sky/Wiggins/Froome domination. The courses are more and more trying to be unpredictable and explosive.

That's not due to Sky. The amount of time trialling dropped when Christian Prudhomme (the first director to come from TV rather than newspapers) took over the race in the mid 2000s. 2012 was an exception even then.

I was curious so looked this up, there is definitely a decline from 2013 onwards. Prudhomme came in in 2006, but the last 4 years have the 4 least TT miles of the past 12 years (I'm sure more, but I got bored looking).

Year | Miles of TT in the Tour

2006 67
2005 46
2004 47
2003 64

2007 73
2008 51
2009 35
2010 38
2011 26
2012 63
2013 41
2014 34
2015 8.6
2016 23
2017 23
2018 19

phreak

80km time trials over a hilly course seem to produce some entertaining results. Maybe Prudhomme should give it a go.

inseine

Year | Miles of TT in the Tour

2006 67
2005 46
2004 47
2003 64

2007 73
2008 51
2009 35
2010 38
2011 26
2012 63
2013 41
2014 34
2015 8.6
2016 23
2017 23
2018 19

They just seem wrong to me. I haven't looked them all up, but 2015, 8.6???? That's not right, wiki says 42km

above_the_cows

inseine wrote:

Year | Miles of TT in the Tour

2006 67
2005 46
2004 47
2003 64

2007 73
2008 51
2009 35
2010 38
2011 26
2012 63
2013 41
2014 34
2015 8.6
2016 23
2017 23
2018 19

They just seem wrong to me. I haven't looked them all up, but 2015, 8.6???? That's not right, wiki says 42km

It took me a while too. I was thinking the ITT this year is 31km then I reaslised those are actual miles. It's weird, I don't measure cycling distances in miles. The Prologue in 2015 was 13.8km which is according to my converter 8.6 miles. There was no other ITT only a TTT which was 28km.

inseine

I was also in Kms and I'd noted Team time trails as well. Isn't 13.8km a TT rather than a proloque? Anyway, that's just nitpicking.

above_the_cows

inseine wrote:

I was also in Kms and I'd noted Team time trails as well. Isn't 13.8km a TT rather than a proloque? Anyway, that's just nitpicking.

Yeah it is technically an ITT, I just remember everyone at least here in NL calling it the prologue. That and it being blooming hot.

ddraver

Above The Cows wrote:

inseine wrote:

I was also in Kms and I'd noted Team time trails as well. Isn't 13.8km a TT rather than a proloque? Anyway, that's just nitpicking.

Yeah it is technically an ITT, I just remember everyone at least here in NL calling it the prologue. That and it being blooming hot.

That was a fun day....

joey54321

inseine wrote:

I was also in Kms and I'd noted Team time trails as well. Isn't 13.8km a TT rather than a proloque? Anyway, that's just nitpicking.

Yeah, I ignored TTT as they aren't really a reflection of a single GC riders strength. You could have a bad TTer gaining time if they are on a good TTT team.

rick_chasey

joey54321 wrote:

inseine wrote:

I was also in Kms and I'd noted Team time trails as well. Isn't 13.8km a TT rather than a proloque? Anyway, that's just nitpicking.

Yeah, I ignored TTT as they aren't really a reflection of a single GC riders strength. You could have a bad TTer gaining time if they are on a good TTT team.

Tell that to Ullrich!

Had pretty much the entire Binachi team in 2003 crying on his wheel as he dragged them to third on the stage.

poptart242

lostboysaint wrote:

Poptart242 wrote:

Porte has been deeply unconvincing to me this season.

To be fair, the same could have been said of Froome until the Zoncolan.

Heart says Bardet, head says Nibali.

Only this season?!

*Edit* especially this season! He looked pretty good this time last year, and in the tour until he came off, I thought.

joey54321

Rick Chasey wrote:

joey54321 wrote:

inseine wrote:

I was also in Kms and I'd noted Team time trails as well. Isn't 13.8km a TT rather than a proloque? Anyway, that's just nitpicking.

Yeah, I ignored TTT as they aren't really a reflection of a single GC riders strength. You could have a bad TTer gaining time if they are on a good TTT team.

Tell that to Ullrich!

Had pretty much the entire Binachi team in 2003 crying on his wheel as he dragged them to third on the stage.

Well, in that case, I don't need to tell him that a strong team is useful in a team time trial.

milton50

I quite like the look of this year's Tour route. The variety is good and hopefully it rewards attacking intent.

phreak wrote:

Surely Quintana will be a threat?

He'll certainly be up there. I might be being a bit harsh but he always seems to wait for the race to come to him rather than attack it (I'm not counting that descent in the Giro as an attack). I think this year the winner will be someone who takes the race by the scruff of the neck in the style of a Nibali or Bardet.

One of thing is for sure. With Froome having done the Giro I don't expect there to be much between the top 3.

above_the_cows

ddraver wrote:

Above The Cows wrote:

inseine wrote:

I was also in Kms and I'd noted Team time trails as well. Isn't 13.8km a TT rather than a proloque? Anyway, that's just nitpicking.

Yeah it is technically an ITT, I just remember everyone at least here in NL calling it the prologue. That and it being blooming hot.

That was a fun day....

I got so sunburned! :oops:

Richmond Racer 2

Above The Cows wrote:

ddraver wrote:

Above The Cows wrote:

inseine wrote:

I was also in Kms and I'd noted Team time trails as well. Isn't 13.8km a TT rather than a proloque? Anyway, that's just nitpicking.

Yeah it is technically an ITT, I just remember everyone at least here in NL calling it the prologue. That and it being blooming hot.

That was a fun day....

I got so sunburned! :oops:

We all drank a fair bit - including yous and ddraver - which helped our hydration NO END

ben@31

Rick Chasey wrote:

joey54321 wrote:

inseine wrote:

I was also in Kms and I'd noted Team time trails as well. Isn't 13.8km a TT rather than a proloque? Anyway, that's just nitpicking.

Yeah, I ignored TTT as they aren't really a reflection of a single GC riders strength. You could have a bad TTer gaining time if they are on a good TTT team.

Tell that to Ullrich!

Had pretty much the entire Binachi team in 2003 crying on his wheel as he dragged them to third on the stage.

This one?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqMtXg4UBlw

timothyw

Blimey, an hour and twenty minutes of TTT, don't see those anymore!

Hell of a way to give time to the richest/strongest/dopingest team.

rick_chasey

ben@31 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

joey54321 wrote:

inseine wrote:

I was also in Kms and I'd noted Team time trails as well. Isn't 13.8km a TT rather than a proloque? Anyway, that's just nitpicking.

Yeah, I ignored TTT as they aren't really a reflection of a single GC riders strength. You could have a bad TTer gaining time if they are on a good TTT team.

Tell that to Ullrich!

Had pretty much the entire Binachi team in 2003 crying on his wheel as he dragged them to third on the stage.

This one?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqMtXg4UBlw

Yes. Those highlights don't do it justice. USP guys look like they just went out for a jaunt there; wasn't the impression I had at the time.

I remember a clip where the Bianchi boys are pulling all sorts of faces when Der Kaiser turns on the heat, and a NOS interview afterwards with one of the Bianchi guys; he looked like he'd been three months solid on the Western front with nothing to eat but rancid rats.

Also, noticed a few things whilst skipping through that.

1) Paul Sherwan gets all over excited that Landis has hung on to the USP train. "He's stuck with the boys!" Sounds rather partisan in hindsight.

2) How much time does Lance (and think how big he was then) have to give to ITV afterwards! A lot it seems, and I remember him being a lot less chatty than a lot of riders. What a shame the direction the sport is going in (mainly as a result of the kinds of practices he put in!).

3) I hadn't realised that as late as 2003 teams were still keen to have most or all of their riders arriving to the finish together. That's a real rarity now in TTTs.

larkim

Love a good TTT - they just look so much more spectacular than watching the individuals, especially as that kind of train in TT mode part-time fans like me only see usually the Olympics on a track. The difference between a well drilled team and a chaotic one heading through ordinary roads is delightful!