How good is Chris Froome?

iainf72

My new favourite people are those demanding a rule change around specified substances. Of course, not a single one of them had an opinion on it until Froome kept competing.

r0bh

iainf72 wrote:

My new favourite people are those demanding a rule change around specified substances. Of course, not a single one of them had an opinion on it until Froome kept competing.

And still wouldn't have an opinion on it had due process been followed and Froome's case hadn't been leaked.

Bumo_b

The highest odds were about 22-1 with your standard online bookies. I was close to the sweet spot but not bang on.

tailwindhome

r0bh wrote:

iainf72 wrote:

My new favourite people are those demanding a rule change around specified substances. Of course, not a single one of them had an opinion on it until Froome kept competing.

And still wouldn't have an opinion on it had due process been followed and Froome's case hadn't been leaked.

In fairness I generally don't have opinions on things I'm not aware of

The amount of 'stuff' I'm not aware of and have no opinion on must be huge

There's art I've never seen and music I've never heard and films I've never watched and sports I don't follow and places I've never been and food I've never tasted

I need a coffee

iainf72

TailWindHome wrote:

r0bh wrote:

iainf72 wrote:

My new favourite people are those demanding a rule change around specified substances. Of course, not a single one of them had an opinion on it until Froome kept competing.

And still wouldn't have an opinion on it had due process been followed and Froome's case hadn't been leaked.

In fairness I generally don't have opinions on things I'm not aware of

The amount of 'stuff' I'm not aware of and have no opinion on must be huge

/quote]

Fair point. But in this case, you’d think if it was a big problem, there would’ve been noise out there in the ether about it.

Why have the MPCC not being campaigning to change the rule, for example? Well, until now...

TheBigBean

bompington wrote:

DeVlaeminck wrote:

Bumo_b wrote:

Plus I had a £10 at 18-1 on Froome at the end of week 2, just to gloat.

Enjoy your retirement.

I'm really not into gambling but I do find it interesting how the odds are set, and how they change - does anyone know what the longest odds offered on Froome winning were at any point during the Giro? Bumo, did you hit that sweetspot?

Betfair has a nice pretty graph during the event. It is harder to get historic data, so I can't answer your question, but if you would like to see how it changes Betfair's graph is interesting.

Froome was never that long though which is why the result shouldn't be that surprising.

TheBigBean

Not sure which thread to put this in, but it is worth noting that Lopez's form wasn't that dissimilar to Froome's. He struggled to keep up in the first week, but was one of the few men left standing by the end of the race.

TheBigBean

iainf72 wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

r0bh wrote:

iainf72 wrote:

My new favourite people are those demanding a rule change around specified substances. Of course, not a single one of them had an opinion on it until Froome kept competing.

And still wouldn't have an opinion on it had due process been followed and Froome's case hadn't been leaked.

In fairness I generally don't have opinions on things I'm not aware of

The amount of 'stuff' I'm not aware of and have no opinion on must be huge

Fair point. But in this case, you’d think if it was a big problem, there would’ve been noise out there in the ether about it.

Why have the MPCC not being campaigning to change the rule, for example? Well, until now...

Laws of all types are only ever changed when they become relevant, and in the view of some, inappropriate.

davidof

inseine wrote:

Hinault joining in with the whinging.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/hinault ... suspended/

Hinault diminishes himself with this stuff, he sounds like a bitter old man rather than a legend. I wonder if it has been taken out of context?

rick_chasey

Back to the original question, but framing it in terms of THAT stage in the Giro.

Of the GC contenders he beat, who would we expect to be more likely than not on the podium in say, the Tour?

Simon Yates - unlikely.

Dumolin? Possibly, but I doubt his Elo rating is that high, given who he won his Giro against.

Pozzovivo? nah

Pinot? You'd guess more often than not he'd be off rather than on.

His nearest rivals; Nibali and Bardet weren't there.

So you COULD suggest that the competition also wasn't as fierce, even if the route was.

Bumo_b

Could be wrong but think it was PaddyPower who had 22/1. In fairness, did i think he would win it at that point in the Giro, definitely no. But I did think it was madness to put him at 18/1 with Ladbrokes. Was more an 10/1 chance at that stage.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/157820340@N04/?

m.r.m.

davidof wrote:

inseine wrote:

Hinault joining in with the whinging.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/hinault ... suspended/

Hinault diminishes himself with this stuff, he sounds like a bitter old man rather than a legend. I wonder if it has been taken out of context?

It's extremely common among legends of all sports. They fear losing their status among the sport and the ensuing loss in standing both in society as well as earning power.

RichN95.

Rick Chasey wrote:

Dumolin? Possibly, but I doubt his Elo rating is that high, given who he won his Giro against.

What's an Elo rating?

TheBigBean

Wasn't he previously a bitter young man?

m.r.m.

Method for calculating skill in games.

blazing_saddles

Pneumonia Pinot.

http://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/racin ... lia-381519

More doubt cast upon the effectiveness of that chase.

larkim

Now, if Froome had been hospitalised mid-race, wouldn't the usual tin foil hat brigade be suggesting that was a result of something going wrong with the doping?

Eugh!!! I've just realised that if I'm thinking the way they think that means they are getting into my head. The next thing I know I'll be saying the world is flat!!

bompington

RichN95 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Dumolin? Possibly, but I doubt his Elo rating is that high, given who he won his Giro against.

What's an Elo rating?

Puts you on a scale somewhere between "Turn to Stone" and "Wild West Hero"

bobmcstuff

davidof wrote:

inseine wrote:

Hinault joining in with the whinging.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/hinault ... suspended/

Hinault diminishes himself with this stuff, he sounds like a bitter old man rather than a legend. I wonder if it has been taken out of context?

Rather than being taken out of context, it's just clear that Hinault doesn't understand the rules with respect to salbutamol - he's talking as if it was a prohibited substance.

Always a risk when asking famous people to in any field to talk about something technical - being a great cyclist in the early 80s doesn't mean he has any special knowledge of 2018 anti-doping rules.

Bumo_b

You mean the world isn't flat?

rick_chasey

RichN95 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Dumolin? Possibly, but I doubt his Elo rating is that high, given who he won his Giro against.

What's an Elo rating?

Look it up, you’d love it.

Works better for winner takes all sports like tennis, but can be applied to mass start races (FiveThirtyEight just did one on F1 drivers).

TheBigBean

I like a good historical rating system such as the one that tells me Bradman's score compared with modern players, or the one that tells me Desert Orchard / Kuato Star would be on bottom weight against top weight Arkle. That said, they are probably a bit meaningless, and both sports have had many decades with very strong fields which I'm not sure is true of cycling.

kleinstroker

Rick Chasey wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Dumolin? Possibly, but I doubt his Elo rating is that high, given who he won his Giro against.

What's an Elo rating?

Look it up, you’d love it.

Works better for winner takes all sports like tennis, but can be applied to mass start races (FiveThirtyEight just did one on F1 drivers).

Disappointed. Actually thought it was some clever way of rating performance with ELO greatest hits

yorkshireraw

kleinstroker wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Dumolin? Possibly, but I doubt his Elo rating is that high, given who he won his Giro against.

What's an Elo rating?

Look it up, you’d love it.

Works better for winner takes all sports like tennis, but can be applied to mass start races (FiveThirtyEight just did one on F1 drivers).

Disappointed. Actually thought it was some clever way of rating performance with ELO greatest hits

Good idea - I like your (Mr) Blue Sky thinking....

apriliarider

DeadCalm wrote:

apriliarider wrote:

DeadCalm wrote:

Above The Cows wrote:

And? What are you saying that people's form can't improve? If so what's the idea of training at all?

Riding a Grand Tour, especially a GT as hard as this Giro was, is not training. There is simply not enough recovery time from the efforts to allow the body to improve.

Please list your qualifications or cite any peer reviewed papers to support this statement

Thx

No.

But if you can point to something that legitimately casts doubt on current orthodox thinking on supercompensation and periodization I'm sure there'd be a few coaches who'd be interested to hear about it.

Have not got anything as I am not an expert - you were the one stating facts - I am keen to understand the proof behind the facts as Sky, and others, clearly have it wrong :?

Still waiting for evidence of your "opinion"

X x

TheBigBean

Rick Chasey wrote:

Back to the original question, but framing it in terms of THAT stage in the Giro.

Of the GC contenders he beat, who would we expect to be more likely than not on the podium in say, the Tour?

Simon Yates - unlikely.

Dumolin? Possibly, but I doubt his Elo rating is that high, given who he won his Giro against.

Pozzovivo? nah

Pinot? You'd guess more often than not he'd be off rather than on.

His nearest rivals; Nibali and Bardet weren't there.

So you COULD suggest that the competition also wasn't as fierce, even if the route was.

I think Yates could get a podium in the tour.

The trouble with looking at the competition is that it often looks like it is missing. It is rare that two riders are at their peak at the same time.

When Armstrong was winning people pointed out that he had never ridden against Pantani at his best. Roche won the triple crown, but only when Lemond was half dead. Sastre/Wiggins won the tour when the competition was on their team etc.

above_the_cows

RichN95 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Dumolin? Possibly, but I doubt his Elo rating is that high, given who he won his Giro against.

What's an Elo rating?

How Elon Musk rates his batshoot ideas when he's had too many shandies.

Bumo_b

Thinking of a bet before the start of TDF, and for a bit of value considering Nibali at 10/1 and Bardet at 20/1, although think the outright is between Froome and Porte. Quintana and Landa will be busy splitting their own team in my view. Will then keep a view on the in play or rather in tour betting. Thoughts please.

m.r.m.

Ought to be Porte's year. If it ever happens it probably should be now with Froome having gone that deep.

mamil314

I agree on Porte - if he does not crash out as always. He, along with Landa, will be the ones to push Froome who took chances with Giro because of extra week to train/recover before the Tour. Not likely to be boring, check and renew your Eurosport subscriptions!