TdF 2016 Stage 17 *Contains spoilers*

ugo.santalucia

IMO the most interesting of the Alpine stages, with a brutal finish... will Quintana finally break loose (or just break wind as usual)? Will Nibali be in the breakaway?

hypster

I'm guessing we'll see Movistar trying to do a "Sky" on the Cat 1 climb and put Froome under pressure to soften him up for the finale. There might be an Astana attack off the front as well.

All that will happen though is Quintana will get shagged out and Froome will put it beyond doubt on the final climb. I'm not sure what Mollema and Porte will do but maybe if the Froome attack is brutal enough they will come along behind and put time into the other GC contenders.

norvernrob

Anyone who is able to attack on the Forclaz should do surely, its the chance to burn off some of the Sky train and isolate Froome for the last climb. I'd like to see a couple of GC contenders escape then Froome relentlessly chase them down on the final climb. I'd be happy for Porte or Yates to win the stage too.

In the real world though nobody has even been able to bother Poels yet, never mind Froome, so it will probably be 5 or 6 Sky riders leading into the Forclaz, a few attacks will happen and get brought back, then a GC shootout in the last 3km of the final climb.

ugo.santalucia

The final climb is really steep... the last Km is 12%... those climbs suit some and not others... I can't see Mollema doing well but in theory that's Quintana's best chance to gain some time... and Aru's too

maddog 2

Froome to put this to bed.

blazing_saddles

Rumour circulating this morning that Quintana is sick......

ugo.santalucia

Blazing Saddles wrote:

Rumour circulating this morning that Quintana is sick......

That would be sad... he is the only one on paper who can give a twist to an inevitable script...

twist83

That would stack up as he does not look quite 'right'.

jscl

Blazing Saddles wrote:

Rumour circulating this morning that Quintana is sick......

Getting the excuses in early then?

If ever there was a stage finish for Nairo, it was today. That last stretch of the climb at 11% and with today's temps, it should be his stomping ground.

RichN95.

Blazing Saddles wrote:

Rumour circulating this morning that Quintana is sick......

That rumour has been going around since the TT (when he was wiping his nose and drinking too much).

If the rumours reach Sky's ears, and it will, they will certainly try and find out on the road.

dish_dash

RichN95 wrote:

Blazing Saddles wrote:

Rumour circulating this morning that Quintana is sick......

That rumour has been going around since the TT (when he was wiping his nose and drinking too much).

If the rumours reach Sky's ears, and it will, they will certainly try and find out on the road.

Nah, Sky have no friends in the Peloton so won't hear a thing :P

keef_zip

Still not sure why people think Quintana is a better climber than Froome, even if 100%. He isn't.

above_the_cows

RichN95 wrote:

Blazing Saddles wrote:

Rumour circulating this morning that Quintana is sick......

That rumour has been going around since the TT (when he was wiping his nose and drinking too much).

If the rumours reach Sky's ears, and it will, they will certainly try and find out on the road.

If having a runny nose equates to being sick then Tony Martin should be on his last legs and Laurens BBQ Koning ten Dam 6 feet under by now. Some people are just massive snot buckets when exercising. I know. I am one.

It's the overall lacklustreyness of Teenytana that suggests he's not feeling tip top.

ugo.santalucia

keef_zip wrote:

Still not sure why people think Quintana is a better climber than Froome, even if 100%. He isn't.

We just hope he is on the day, to avoid an otheriwse tedious procession of the 20 to the finish and an uncontested Tour de France for Froome.
It is turning into another 2014... with the exception that 2014 was more exciting

keef_zip

ugo.santalucia wrote:

keef_zip wrote:

Still not sure why people think Quintana is a better climber than Froome, even if 100%. He isn't.

We just hope he is on the day, to avoid an otheriwse tedious procession of the 20 to the finish and an uncontested Tour de France for Froome.
It is turning into another 2014... with the exception that 2014 was more exciting

I appreciate that, but it's not really Froome's or Quintana's fault. There is always one that is better than the other.

It's not an uncontested Tour for Froome either - he ain't winning by 5 minutes.

lostboysaint

Above The Cows wrote:

Some people are just massive snot buckets when exercising. I know. I am one.

You've been behind me when I've been emptying my schnoz haven't you, sorry! :oops:

larkim

Whenever the race is still within the margins of being affected by a ponderous mechanical change issue it will remain interesting to the Champs. I'm not saying I hope a mechanical issue changes the race, but whilst it is a possibility then Froome would be well advised to remain nervous that something outside of his control could take the race away from him.

It could get all the more boring after today if Froome bags 2 minutes up the climb. Then it really will be all over bar the shouting, with it being unlikely that such a gap would be lost over the TT and the final days even if some piece of bad luck were to befall Froome and his team.

above_the_cows

lostboysaint wrote:

Above The Cows wrote:

Some people are just massive snot buckets when exercising. I know. I am one.

You've been behind me when I've been emptying my schnoz haven't you, sorry! :oops:

I am really bad too. I don't know where it all comes from? I got someone yesterday. This massive bloke wheelsucked me all the way from Weesp to Hilversum. And so just before I dropped him on the 'climb' up to the TV tower (which I expected I would him being twice my size) I made sure to empty my nose. The wind was blowing in just the right direction and I landed a perfect shot. Then I had to make sure I really dropped him on the climb and then had to keep going at full tilt all the way to Bussum in case he was going the same way and caught up with me. It's an interesting training exercise, but I beat my PB on that route so...

ugo.santalucia

keef_zip wrote:

It's not an uncontested Tour for Froome either - he ain't winning by 5 minutes.

I think he will by the time he gets to Paris

larkim

I don't disagree that that's a likely outcome based on what we've seen so far, but if, say, Mollema and Quintana attack successfully today and Sky ride in their usual style (i.e. steady tempo to either minimise losses or close the gap down) BUT there's some sort of mechanical issue, Froome would be vulnerable. Which is why I don't think he should be content to ride passively between now and the end. To make sure it is all in his own hands he needs to continue to ride aggressively and extend his lead.

hypster

Based on what we have seen so far I'm thinking that Bauke Mollema is turning out to be the main contender to Froome rather than Quintana. After Froome's attack on the Ventoux when he went away with Richie Porte, Mollema seemed to bridge the gap pretty easy and apart from the constriction of the crowd looked like he was up for a bit more as well.

Today I think will be the acid test and if Quintana is truly under the weather then he's almost certain to drop further down the GC list with Valverde and Porte overtaking him I think. Also the TT tomorrow will take more out of Quintana even if it is basically uphill. I can see him actually abandoning before Paris if the illness rumours are true.

Illness would explain a lot because even though I believe Froome to be a better rider than him, Quintana has shown nothing like what he is capable of. It may just be a ruse though...

mrfpb

Quintana appears to be on the line for today's stage. 181 riders signed in, only Cav and Rohan Dennis confirmed as withdrawn.

poppit

Gorka Izagirre crashed and out of the race, broken collarbone.

RichN95.

An early crash has caused Gorka Izaguirre to abandon, so that's one of Movistar's bullets gone. Barguil also involved but back riding.

yourpaceormine

Peloton all together at 36km.

Sadly another hour and a bit before Eurosport coverage, then 45 minutes of muted coverage before ITV go live.

mrfpb

Several attempted breakaways in the first 45 mins, including a brief one with Tony Martin. No one is getting away for more than a few minutes, and only 10s or so ahead.

blazing_saddles

Movistar also had Erviti down in the Izaguirre crash.
The omens are not good.

The Loyal Lieutenant

Barring incident, Froome won't be caught. He is just a class above. Until a new rider arrives that can seriously challenge him then he'll keep winning.

If the other teams want to change that then they need to start working together and I just don't see that happening.

thomthom

larkim wrote:

Whenever the race is still within the margins of being affected by a ponderous mechanical change issue it will remain interesting to the Champs. I'm not saying I hope a mechanical issue changes the race, but whilst it is a possibility then Froome would be well advised to remain nervous that something outside of his control could take the race away from him.

Though, mechanical issues and unfortunate crashes don't seem to affect Froome who simply just neutralises the stage to his benefit.

(Yeah, I'm still going on about this..)

yourpaceormine

Barguil, Ten Dam and Impey up the road, well just about (10s). 73km


Edit: in the time it took to type that, post it, edit it because autocorrect changed Impey to import, they have crested the cat 3 and are all back together again

blazing_saddles

Almost 52kms covered in the first hour, into a slight headwind and over a 3rd cat. :shock: