When will Cav abandon? (possible spoiler?)

RoadPainter

With the Olympics in mind & his (arguably unexpected) success so far, I reckon Cav will abandon the Tour on morning of Sunday 17th, or the 2nd rest day.

Anyone think he will go all the way to Paris?

Lanterne_Rogue

I wouldn't be surprised to see him in Paris, frankly. He's abandoned the Tour for the track before and it didn't go terribly well, and I suspect that might be enough to tip the emotional balance - especially now that he's deep in the maelstrom of the tour and picking up stages.

jscl

I'm expecting Cav to be in Paris too.

You know he won't be the first person to ride an Olympics after the tour, right? It's no real biggie for someone like Cav.

Sun Dodger

Given where he is now, I can't see him pulling out anytime soon. Winning a Tour jersey, then an Olympic medal seems like a good challenge...

dav1d1

I don't think he will pull out, i for one will like to see him in Paris and win. Watching YouTube videos of him winning on the Champs-Élysées is so good. The side camera which follows the riders and you just see him fly past, In that cavendish way head over the bars teeth clenched.

RichN95.

It will depend on how he's climbing. For all of the talk about track training helping his sprinting it probably won't have helped his climbing. If he struggles more than usual in the Pyrenees I can't see him bothering with the Alps.

above_the_cows

RichN95 wrote:

It will depend on how he's climbing. For all of the talk about track training helping his sprinting it probably won't have helped his climbing. If he struggles more than usual in the Pyrenees I can't see him bothering with the Alps.

Could help Bernie's Lanterne ambitions though.

Lanterne_Rogue

Above The Cows wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

It will depend on how he's climbing. For all of the talk about track training helping his sprinting it probably won't have helped his climbing. If he struggles more than usual in the Pyrenees I can't see him bothering with the Alps.

Could help Bernie's Lanterne ambitions though.

Yeah, about time Cavendish rode for Bernie, the selfish sod...

simon_e

Dav1d1 wrote:

I don't think he will pull out, i for one will like to see him in Paris and win. Watching YouTube videos of him winning on the Champs-Élysées is so good. The side camera which follows the riders and you just see him fly past, In that cavendish way head over the bars teeth clenched.

Like this - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFkjPgccHto

Probably my all time favourite Cavendish win

I really, really hope he stays on. Final stage in Paris beats the 'lympics every time. For many sports the Olympics is a distraction and hugely overrated.

dav1d1

Simon E wrote:

Like this - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFkjP

Probably my all time favourite Cavendish win

I really, really hope he stays on. Final stage in Paris beats the 'lympics every time. For many sports the Olympics is a distraction and hugely overrated.

Yes my favourite closely followed by his win with the world champs jersey on

takethehighroad

That's got me thinking about my favourite Cav TDF wins.

In chronological order:

Aubenas 2009
Paris 2009
Paris 2010
Paris 2011 (Green jersey)
Brive 2012
Paris 2012 (WC jersey)
St Amand Montrond 2013 (Echelons)
Utah Beach 2016

Lanterne_Rogue

Favourite Cav wins? Without bothering to check when they were, my top three would probably be Milan San Remo (first time I found an illegal stream to watch a bike race - first time I realised I was falling for the sport), the Worlds (with my toddler screaming alongside me), and that one in 2012 where (iirc) Nicolas Roche had time to do a double take, give up, and still sprint for second. The Champs ones have been good because of the side-on camera, plus the thrill of seeing the yellow jersey lead out the Norwegian, lead out the World, and that one in 2013 where he had to work harder to get into the break of 14 than to win the stage were good, but two of the ones above were brilliant purely because nobody else could have done that.

Pross

Was just wondering this myself. Are there many stages where Cav is unlikely to get points whilst Sagan will be up there? If he's got a realistic chance of green plus another Champs stage I think he'll stay until the end but if he's out of contention between the Pyrenees and Alps he'll probably head home. It's obviously a bit different to 2012 as he needs to get track sharpness.

mfin

Hope he abandons asap. Although, if only he didn't attempt interviews it would help a lot. What he does on the bike nowadays is impressive, it's as soon as he gets off and goes in front of a camera that ruins it.

Daz555

I think he will try to go to Paris....if track has not killed his ability to get over the big lumps (that leg speed might have come at a cost). But hey it's Cav, so clearly he's finished and will never win anything again!

As an aside...I can't recall seeing Cav so skinny.

Richmond Racer 2

He's 2kg heavier than last year, according to Friebe. Muscle mass - all the gym work he's been doing with BC

Richmond Racer 2

He's 2kg heavier than last year, according to Friebe. Muscle mass - all the gym work he's been doing with BC

takethehighroad

I think that no matter what time he leaves the Tour, he won't win an Olympic medal.

I hope and pray that he will, but I just can;t see it, too much competition.

wallace_and_gromit

TakeTheHighRoad wrote:

I think that no matter what time he leaves the Tour, he won't win an Olympic medal.

I hope and pray that he will, but I just can;t see it, too much competition.

Do all TP squad riders get a medal or just the 4 who ride the medal race? He might sneak one this way.

wallace_and_gromit

Daz555 wrote:

As an aside...I can't recall seeing Cav so skinny.

I thought that too.

inseine

TakeTheHighRoad wrote:

I think that no matter what time he leaves the Tour, he won't win an Olympic medal.

I hope and pray that he will, but I just can;t see it, too much competition.

Surely with the way he's riding he has a good a chance as anyone in the omnium, where top road sprinters always do well.

Shadowrider

I've started to wonder would he take another Green jersey over the Olympic medal this year?

No_Ta_Doctor

Shadowrider wrote:

I've started to wonder would he take another Green jersey over the Olympic medal this year?

I don't think the green jersey is reachable, Sagan will just pick up points everywhere.

Mad_Malx

He's already got a green jersey. He's not going to get another crack at the Olympics.
Prospect of revenge on the Champs might keep him going though, so he may well turn up in Rio knackered.

deejay

TakeTheHighRoad wrote:

I think that no matter what time he leaves the Tour, he won't win an Olympic medal.

I hope and pray that he will, but I just can;t see it, too much competition.

My estimate is about the feed zone today he will get off and retire.
I think the Green Jersey they gave him on stage 6 was a surprise, he didn't expect and so he will honour that Jersey in today's presentation and retire further down the course.
His obligation to his sponsor is full filled and he can concentrate with training with Wiggins etc.
Rio is only a month away and I can't see him trying to get acclimatised in less time. :?:

markhewitt1978

I hope we see him in Paris. The Tour is more important than the Olympics in any case.

kingstongraham

So there's another 4 potential sprint stages before the second rest day? I would have thought he'd try for them. But then if he's won three of those and is in green, he'd have to go on to Paris. Otherwise he misses the Alps.

dodgy

Don't forget, stage 20 is quite a tough stage (even if Ramaz has been taken out), a big ask for any of the sprinters to have a good day the next day in Paris.

carbonclem

The tour is way bigger than the Olympics all that is true, however, for full time trackies the Olympics is what it is ALL about and they get scant chances to compete. There's no doubt that Cav has dropped in and taken a slot, and absolutely deservedly so, and I really think he will want to absolutely honour and justify that privilige. I genuinely can't see him hanging on in the tour and hoping for the best in Rio. He will respect BC, his country (he is very patriotic) and whomever he has displaced too much I think. I also assume there has been some long standing agreement between Dimension Data and BC? Surely this will be that he has to meet certain preparation criteria for the games.
If he really thought the Tour was head and shoulders above everything else then he wouldn't have done all he has done to gain selection.
As for the green jersey? Its Sagans.

inseine

There's absolutley no chance he'll go on to Paris. Might even climb off today. he's done verything there is to do in cycling, bar an Olymopic medal and that's been his only target all year. I expect him to get gold too.

Mad_Malx

dodgy wrote:

Don't forget, stage 20 is quite a tough stage (even if Ramaz has been taken out), a big ask for any of the sprinters to have a good day the next day in Paris.

All the stages after the second rest are b'stards, including the TT.