[Another EU thread] What do you think our EU relationship will look like?

pblakeney

joe2008 wrote:

Rolf F wrote:

joe2008 wrote:

Theresa May says: "Brexit means Brexit. The campaign was fought, the vote was held, turnout was high and the public has given its verdict."

And Boris, and Gove, and Farage and Cameron all said stuff before the referendum which they don't say now. Why would you think that Theresa May will do what she says now after she has won her election?

Because she is a woman of course

And women never, ever, change their minds.

Stevo_666

Joelsim wrote:

Saw this today which is very similar to my view of what I think will happen (much easier to copy and paste rather than write, call it cheating if you want).

After seven days of spectacular chaos, the fog is now starting to lift. I think it is possible to see what the way ahead might look like. Here's my best guess;

1) Theresa May will be the next Tory leader. Although it is not unheard of for the man who wields the knife to wear the crown (think Gordon Brown), I suspect Michael Gove's spectacular, sudden and brutal knifing of his former ally this morning probably does for his own leadership prospects. Even for the Tory party, the sight of this much blood might be too much to stomach.

2) As Theresa's campaign manager, Chris Grayling is likely to be the man in charge of Brexit. I suspect Boris Johnson and (if he doesn't win) Michael Gove are probably finished as serious forces in modern British politics. Their behaviour seems frankly erratic. And that is putting it politely.

3) Theresa May has already said she won't trigger Article Fifty this year. I think this kicks it firmly into the long grass. That is not the same as saying we are going to stay in the EU, after all - I suspect that boat has sailed - but Theresa May is a quiet, cautious politician. My every instinct is that she will hit the brake and keep her foot on it for a very long time. As the country senses this, an uneasy calm may begin to descend.

4) Mr Juncker can say what he likes, our future relationship with the EU is going to be decided by one woman above all others; Angela Merkel. In their first meeting, I imagine Theresa will make an argument that goes something like this; 'I have not triggered article fifty and I have no plans to do so any time soon. We helped to build the Single Market, we are a critical part of the European economy and it makes no sense to exclude us. I will not trigger our departure until there is a clear understanding that there will be no attempt to punish us. That said, whilst we might accept the principle of freedom of movement per se ( in a world where the GDP per capita ratios of member countries are aligned) it is clearly creating strains across the continent. This is not just a British problem. Therefore, what is required is a measure that returns control of immigration policy to national governments. You could call it an emergency brake - thus preserving the absolute principle of Freedom of Movement. Once the economies of member countries come into GDP per capita alignment, the problem is likely to evaporate. No one is complaining about the influx of Italians into the UK. If you, Angela, do not agree to this, the problems will spread to other populations and other countries. You know this, therefore the way ahead is clear.'

5) The fact that this conversation is likely to take place in private between two quiet, clever, cautious women suggests to me that there is a much higher prospect of success than might otherwise be the case (if I am sounding like an out and out feminist here, that is because each passing day makes me more of one...). It is also possible that a third woman in the same mould may join the conversation from the White House in November. This in itself could provide a major contribution to calming everything down. That said, the noisy entrance of a President Trump might push Angela Merkel and Theresa May closer together anyway.

6) By allowing concessions within the EU, Ms Merkel would reduce the incentive for other countries to leave. For those in the Euro, leaving is fraught with all kinds of attendant complications anyway, so there is a decent chance that the sense the centre is listening and yielding on immigration policy may take the heat out of the equation and make it easier for progress to be achieved in areas that are arguably more central to the German mission (such as proper fiscal union).

7) In this scenario (dependent on a lot of 'ifs', I grant you), one might argue that there would be, in the end, little point in us ever actually leaving the EU (if we have got what we always wanted, why leave?). But there are a few other points to consider here. It is not just that we have voted to leave (a pretty central fact for the incoming Prime Minister in itself). The truth is very few people have bothered to make a positive case for the EU in recent times. It has been repeatedly used as the scapegoat for a million issues and, true or not, it is very hard to reverse that tide of rhetoric. If Ms May could achieve what I suspect she would want - a quiet, cautious divorce that keeps us in the Single Market, retains the City's status as the financial capital of Europe and settles the rest of the EU down - then that is likely to prove a much more attractive political option than going over the ground a second time.



But of course 10 minutes is a long time in politics...depends on many things I guess, breaking news is that Eric Pickles has eaten 4 MPs today.

Source/link please JS?

I like this article.

joe2008

PBlakeney wrote:

joe2008 wrote:

Rolf F wrote:

joe2008 wrote:

Theresa May says: "Brexit means Brexit. The campaign was fought, the vote was held, turnout was high and the public has given its verdict."

And Boris, and Gove, and Farage and Cameron all said stuff before the referendum which they don't say now. Why would you think that Theresa May will do what she says now after she has won her election?

Because she is a woman of course

And women never, ever, change their minds.

hmmm, see what you mean, guess it depends what time of the month it is

surrey_commuter

Joelsim wrote:

Saw this today which is very similar to my view of what I think will happen (much easier to copy and paste rather than write, call it cheating if you want).

After seven days of spectacular chaos, the fog is now starting to lift. I think it is possible to see what the way ahead might look like. Here's my best guess;

1) Theresa May will be the next Tory leader. Although it is not unheard of for the man who wields the knife to wear the crown (think Gordon Brown), I suspect Michael Gove's spectacular, sudden and brutal knifing of his former ally this morning probably does for his own leadership prospects. Even for the Tory party, the sight of this much blood might be too much to stomach.

2) As Theresa's campaign manager, Chris Grayling is likely to be the man in charge of Brexit. I suspect Boris Johnson and (if he doesn't win) Michael Gove are probably finished as serious forces in modern British politics. Their behaviour seems frankly erratic. And that is putting it politely.

3) Theresa May has already said she won't trigger Article Fifty this year. I think this kicks it firmly into the long grass. That is not the same as saying we are going to stay in the EU, after all - I suspect that boat has sailed - but Theresa May is a quiet, cautious politician. My every instinct is that she will hit the brake and keep her foot on it for a very long time. As the country senses this, an uneasy calm may begin to descend.

4) Mr Juncker can say what he likes, our future relationship with the EU is going to be decided by one woman above all others; Angela Merkel. In their first meeting, I imagine Theresa will make an argument that goes something like this; 'I have not triggered article fifty and I have no plans to do so any time soon. We helped to build the Single Market, we are a critical part of the European economy and it makes no sense to exclude us. I will not trigger our departure until there is a clear understanding that there will be no attempt to punish us. That said, whilst we might accept the principle of freedom of movement per se ( in a world where the GDP per capita ratios of member countries are aligned) it is clearly creating strains across the continent. This is not just a British problem. Therefore, what is required is a measure that returns control of immigration policy to national governments. You could call it an emergency brake - thus preserving the absolute principle of Freedom of Movement. Once the economies of member countries come into GDP per capita alignment, the problem is likely to evaporate. No one is complaining about the influx of Italians into the UK. If you, Angela, do not agree to this, the problems will spread to other populations and other countries. You know this, therefore the way ahead is clear.'

5) The fact that this conversation is likely to take place in private between two quiet, clever, cautious women suggests to me that there is a much higher prospect of success than might otherwise be the case (if I am sounding like an out and out feminist here, that is because each passing day makes me more of one...). It is also possible that a third woman in the same mould may join the conversation from the White House in November. This in itself could provide a major contribution to calming everything down. That said, the noisy entrance of a President Trump might push Angela Merkel and Theresa May closer together anyway.

6) By allowing concessions within the EU, Ms Merkel would reduce the incentive for other countries to leave. For those in the Euro, leaving is fraught with all kinds of attendant complications anyway, so there is a decent chance that the sense the centre is listening and yielding on immigration policy may take the heat out of the equation and make it easier for progress to be achieved in areas that are arguably more central to the German mission (such as proper fiscal union).

7) In this scenario (dependent on a lot of 'ifs', I grant you), one might argue that there would be, in the end, little point in us ever actually leaving the EU (if we have got what we always wanted, why leave?). But there are a few other points to consider here. It is not just that we have voted to leave (a pretty central fact for the incoming Prime Minister in itself). The truth is very few people have bothered to make a positive case for the EU in recent times. It has been repeatedly used as the scapegoat for a million issues and, true or not, it is very hard to reverse that tide of rhetoric. If Ms May could achieve what I suspect she would want - a quiet, cautious divorce that keeps us in the Single Market, retains the City's status as the financial capital of Europe and settles the rest of the EU down - then that is likely to prove a much more attractive political option than going over the ground a second time.



But of course 10 minutes is a long time in politics...depends on many things I guess, breaking news is that Eric Pickles has eaten 4 MPs today.

Chris Grayling can't sort out Oyster pay as you go at Epsom station* - you don't want him in charge of anything, unless you need somebody to fiddle your expenses for you

* my dislike for Grayling me be a little parochial

joelsim

Surely having Grayling in charge of Brexit would be a masterstroke then?

surrey_commuter

Joelsim wrote:

Surely having Grayling in charge of Brexit would be a masterstroke then?

I like your thinking.

And if you had an Addams Family themed Xmas Party he would make a great Lurch

joelsim

Have you seen this?

https://www.facebook.com/UniversityofLi ... 102897424/

cycleclinic

I think the government will find a way not to use article 50 it could break up the union for one and that would end the next PM's career.
Also would it be actually legal for the government to deprive us of our EU citizenship by pulling the U.K out of the EU? Right conferred to us are not easily taken away. I suspect the legal challenges alone will mean we won't actually leave the EU in the way vote leave wanted. Also given the legal position of having to leave the EU before coming to new trade deal with the EU is another complication against leaving. If we where going to leave the government would have given notice already. This is looking like the heathrow expansion plans a typical British fudge.

I am not a tory supporter but if we get a sensible cautious female PM as May seems to be then we might actually avoid disaster. She might have a good relationship with Merkel. Lets not forget if we manage by some stroke of luck and deft politics to hold the union together the U.K will be the 4th largest economy in the world and the largest in Europe by 2030. the EU will be dancing to our tune and we will be reshaping it that is a reason to stay. If May does get a divorce with movement of free movement on people for the entire EU and access to the single market then that would be the best of both worlds for us as it avoids so many problems.

Licking art 50 into the long grass is fine idea. Having options is good thing but there is not much wriggle room. I

surrey_commuter

thecycleclinic wrote:

I think the government will find a way not to use article 50 it could break up the union for one and that would end the next PM's career.
Also would it be actually legal for the government to deprive us of our EU citizenship by pulling the U.K out of the EU? Right conferred to us are not easily taken away. I suspect the legal challenges alone will mean we won't actually leave the EU in the way vote leave wanted. Also given the legal position of having to leave the EU before coming to new trade deal with the EU is another complication against leaving. If we where going to leave the government would have given notice already. This is looking like the heathrow expansion plans a typical British fudge.

I am not a tory supporter but if we get a sensible cautious female PM as May seems to be then we might actually avoid disaster. She might have a good relationship with Merkel. Lets not forget if we manage by some stroke of luck and deft politics to hold the union together the U.K will be the 4th largest economy in the world and the largest in Europe by 2030. the EU will be dancing to our tune and we will be reshaping it that is a reason to stay. If May does get a divorce with movement of free movement on people for the entire EU and access to the single market then that would be the best of both worlds for us as it avoids so many problems.

German economy is $3.5trn and rising uk is $2.8trn and falling. Compound % are always difficult but after this current difficulty is over we will need to grow by 2% a year more than Germany. That will not happen.

May is not sensible and cautious, she just looks it next to the other clowns

cycleclinic

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... usion.html
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/uk-tipped-beco ... 0s-1534942

Correction not 2030 but 2030's. Surprised the leave campaign never used this or remain to push there case.

It is a projection but it is based on the our growing population and trend growth. the U.K economy is not shrinking either well not yet anyway. Germany intake of 1m migrants last year may delay this but Britain is growing. Germany actually had a shrinking population then Merkel opened the doors it is not so altruistic. Long term Germany population is expected to fall while the U.K will continue to rise. A falling population means an aging one and retired people are not as economically active hence the U.K economic growth will be higher.
Also if may was a hot head she would have got involved in the campaign she did not however.

The future for the U.K is not dismal if we manage to navigate our way through this mess. Maybe a trump presidency will push us closer to europe. We might have to ramp up defense spending to replace US forces that could be withdrawn that would buy us leverage.

the one thing this referendum has shown anything is possible and future is not written yet.

surrey_commuter

thecycleclinic wrote:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12068319/Booming-Britain-to-become-worlds-fourth-largest-economy-as-France-and-Italy-face-G8-exclusion.html
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/uk-tipped-beco ... 0s-1534942

Correction not 2030 but 2030's. Surprised the leave campaign never used this or remain to push there case.

It is a projection but it is based on the our growing population and trend growth. the U.K economy is not shrinking either well not yet anyway. Germany intake of 1m migrants last year may delay this but Britain is growing. Germany actually had a shrinking population then Merkel opened the doors it is not so altruistic. Long term Germany population is expected to fall while the U.K will continue to rise. A falling population means an aging one and retired people are not as economically active hence the U.K economic growth will be higher.
Also if may was a hot head she would have got involved in the campaign she did not however.

The future for the U.K is not dismal if we manage to navigate our way through this mess. Maybe a trump presidency will push us closer to europe. We might have to ramp up defense spending to replace US forces that could be withdrawn that would buy us leverage.

the one thing this referendum has shown anything is possible and future is not written yet.

I denounce the publishers of that report as experts.

The next few years will be dismal after that things will be less could than they would have been.

It is an article of faith for economists that free trade is good - for an economist the idea of opting out of the world's largest free trade block manifestly absurd. To suggest we will do better outside is just wishful thinking.

cycleclinic

The report was published before brexit . How we will fair now is uncertain. Long term though we should be o.k if we have a government that is sensible. There are challanges but any down turn is not going to last too long and the projections actually show a reduced rate of exonomic growth rather than a shrinking economy of the next five years but they assume brexit. I think either we will never leave or we half leave and retain access to the single market after that normal service resumes. So i dont think the future is bleak. It better not be i run a shop.

Also the state is quite good at finding a fudge. The problems are political if they can be solved we will be fine, if they cant we will suffer. The tories thankfully are not self harming like labour is yet. All we need now is a new opposition party and the fudge making can begin.

surrey_commuter

thecycleclinic wrote:

The report was published before brexit . How we will fair now is uncertain. Long term though we should be o.k if we have a government that is sensible. There are challanges but any down turn is not going to last too long and the projections actually show a reduced rate of exonomic growth rather than a shrinking economy of the next five years but they assume brexit. I think either we will never leave or we half leave and retain access to the single market after that normal service resumes. So i dont think the future is bleak. It better not be i run a shop.

Also the state is quite good at finding a fudge. The problems are political if they can be solved we will be fine, if they cant we will suffer. The tories thankfully are not self harming like labour is yet. All we need now is a new opposition party and the fudge making can begin.

That report says our economy is growing because of a rising population, which is because of immigration. Our stopping of immigration will slow economic growth.
Removal of free trade has been estimated to cost us 0.3-0.5% per annum over the long term (ie after any initial shocks) . Tiny numbers but over your 20 year time frame will mean our economy is 10% smaller than it otherwise would have been.

The major fudge to be done here by our politicians is free movement- the rest is all in the hands of the EU

Bo Duke

Surrey Commuter wrote:

thecycleclinic wrote:

The report was published before brexit . How we will fair now is uncertain. Long term though we should be o.k if we have a government that is sensible. There are challanges but any down turn is not going to last too long and the projections actually show a reduced rate of exonomic growth rather than a shrinking economy of the next five years but they assume brexit. I think either we will never leave or we half leave and retain access to the single market after that normal service resumes. So i dont think the future is bleak. It better not be i run a shop.

Also the state is quite good at finding a fudge. The problems are political if they can be solved we will be fine, if they cant we will suffer. The tories thankfully are not self harming like labour is yet. All we need now is a new opposition party and the fudge making can begin.

That report says our economy is growing because of a rising population, which is because of immigration. Our stopping of immigration will slow economic growth.

And I thought it was because of success stories like Jaguar, Land Rover, Bentley etc.. etc.. lets not slag off the great work thats been done in the manufacturing industry to become competitive.

Yeah.. it's because of population growth. :shock:

surrey_commuter

Bo Duke wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

thecycleclinic wrote:

The report was published before brexit . How we will fair now is uncertain. Long term though we should be o.k if we have a government that is sensible. There are challanges but any down turn is not going to last too long and the projections actually show a reduced rate of exonomic growth rather than a shrinking economy of the next five years but they assume brexit. I think either we will never leave or we half leave and retain access to the single market after that normal service resumes. So i dont think the future is bleak. It better not be i run a shop.

Also the state is quite good at finding a fudge. The problems are political if they can be solved we will be fine, if they cant we will suffer. The tories thankfully are not self harming like labour is yet. All we need now is a new opposition party and the fudge making can begin.

That report says our economy is growing because of a rising population, which is because of immigration. Our stopping of immigration will slow economic growth.

And I thought it was because of success stories like Jaguar, Land Rover, Bentley etc.. etc.. lets not slag off the great work thats been done in the manufacturing industry to become competitive.

Yeah.. it's because of population growth. :shock:

I have some very bad news for you - manufacturing makes up 13% of the Uk economy. It would have to really boom to shift the dial. Nobody is slagging it off.

Most economic research shows immigration to be good for the host country (especially when they have an ageing population). The best example of this is the USA.

Lookyhere

Bo Duke wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

thecycleclinic wrote:

The report was published before brexit . How we will fair now is uncertain. Long term though we should be o.k if we have a government that is sensible. There are challanges but any down turn is not going to last too long and the projections actually show a reduced rate of exonomic growth rather than a shrinking economy of the next five years but they assume brexit. I think either we will never leave or we half leave and retain access to the single market after that normal service resumes. So i dont think the future is bleak. It better not be i run a shop.

Also the state is quite good at finding a fudge. The problems are political if they can be solved we will be fine, if they cant we will suffer. The tories thankfully are not self harming like labour is yet. All we need now is a new opposition party and the fudge making can begin.

That report says our economy is growing because of a rising population, which is because of immigration. Our stopping of immigration will slow economic growth.

And I thought it was because of success stories like Jaguar, Land Rover, Bentley etc.. etc.. lets not slag off the great work thats been done in the manufacturing industry to become competitive.

Yeah.. it's because of population growth. :shock:

jeez these companies are no longer British, they ve grown because of German and Indian investment (our governments would have let them go the same way as our bicycle and motorcycle industries)
freedom of movement being a given and the ease in which they can sell into EU and all around the world, if you ve a great product, you dont need trade deals - china wants the above products as they do BM's and Iphones.

Home grown industries like Vodaphone want freedom of movement, the bakers up north need this too, so do Nissan, as do many of the supply companies - my company does too - like it or not, we are interdependent on the rest of the world, especially so because we have over many years failed to invest in training and basic education.

You have put at risk where in the future these great products will be manufactured, model investment is every 4 to 5 years, will TATA, VW Nissan invest in the UK or slowly move to more reasoned countries?

briantrumpet

Surrey Commuter wrote:

The major fudge to be done here by our politicians is free movement- the rest is all in the hands of the EU

An interesting perspective on the dynamic within the EU itself here: http://www.spiegel.de/international/eur ... 00852.html

bobmcstuff

FT video on the same https://next.ft.com/content/7f97b5e0-42 ... 12b3873ae1

Should add Liechtenstein model to the poll - full access plus restrictions on immigration - but unlikely to fly with EU...

bobmcstuff

I added the Liechtenstein model and it deleted all previous votes... Oh well.

veronese68

Bo Duke wrote:

Yeah.. it's because of population growth. :shock:

Yes, my son was taught about this in year 9 or 10 as I recall.

Bo Duke

Lookyhere wrote:

Bo Duke wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

thecycleclinic wrote:

The report was published before brexit . How we will fair now is uncertain. Long term though we should be o.k if we have a government that is sensible. There are challanges but any down turn is not going to last too long and the projections actually show a reduced rate of exonomic growth rather than a shrinking economy of the next five years but they assume brexit. I think either we will never leave or we half leave and retain access to the single market after that normal service resumes. So i dont think the future is bleak. It better not be i run a shop.

Also the state is quite good at finding a fudge. The problems are political if they can be solved we will be fine, if they cant we will suffer. The tories thankfully are not self harming like labour is yet. All we need now is a new opposition party and the fudge making can begin.

That report says our economy is growing because of a rising population, which is because of immigration. Our stopping of immigration will slow economic growth.

And I thought it was because of success stories like Jaguar, Land Rover, Bentley etc.. etc.. lets not slag off the great work thats been done in the manufacturing industry to become competitive.

Yeah.. it's because of population growth. :shock:

jeez these companies are no longer British, they ve grown because of German and Indian investment (our governments would have let them go the same way as our bicycle and motorcycle industries)

You have put at risk where in the future these great products will be manufactured, model investment is every 4 to 5 years, will TATA, VW Nissan invest in the UK or slowly move to more reasoned countries?

Of course they're not British, so how does that affect the great job they're doing? Nissan, Honda, Ford, Vauxhall (Chevy to most everyone else) are obviously not British but the industry is the most efficient in europe!

What do you mean I have put at risk??? Explain please.

Bo Duke

Veronese68 wrote:

Bo Duke wrote:

Yeah.. it's because of population growth. :shock:

Yes, my son was taught about this in year 9 or 10 as I recall.

I think you need to congratulate the original poster mate, not me, I cannot take credit for that particular ditty.

RideOnTime

I think the A50 is great - concrete surface bit noisy...

surrey_commuter

Bo Duke wrote:

Lookyhere wrote:

Bo Duke wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

thecycleclinic wrote:

The report was published before brexit . How we will fair now is uncertain. Long term though we should be o.k if we have a government that is sensible. There are challanges but any down turn is not going to last too long and the projections actually show a reduced rate of exonomic growth rather than a shrinking economy of the next five years but they assume brexit. I think either we will never leave or we half leave and retain access to the single market after that normal service resumes. So i dont think the future is bleak. It better not be i run a shop.

Also the state is quite good at finding a fudge. The problems are political if they can be solved we will be fine, if they cant we will suffer. The tories thankfully are not self harming like labour is yet. All we need now is a new opposition party and the fudge making can begin.

That report says our economy is growing because of a rising population, which is because of immigration. Our stopping of immigration will slow economic growth.

And I thought it was because of success stories like Jaguar, Land Rover, Bentley etc.. etc.. lets not slag off the great work thats been done in the manufacturing industry to become competitive.

Yeah.. it's because of population growth. :shock:

jeez these companies are no longer British, they ve grown because of German and Indian investment (our governments would have let them go the same way as our bicycle and motorcycle industries)

You have put at risk where in the future these great products will be manufactured, model investment is every 4 to 5 years, will TATA, VW Nissan invest in the UK or slowly move to more reasoned countries?

Of course they're not British, so how does that affect the great job they're doing? Nissan, Honda, Ford, Vauxhall (Chevy to most everyone else) are obviously not British but the industry is the most efficient in europe!

What do you mean I have put at risk??? Explain please.

Honda build the Avensis in the UK, now say they intend replacing it with a new model in 2 years time. They will have to retool their UK production line anyway so they will look across Europe for the best place to build it. Putting it in the UK now faces a disrupted supply chain, difficulty in recruiting and most probably a 10% tariff on sales to the EU.

As each model built in the UK reaches the end of it's life you have increased the risk that it's successor will be built in the EU.

surrey_commuter

Bo Duke wrote:

Veronese68 wrote:

Bo Duke wrote:

Yeah.. it's because of population growth. :shock:

Yes, my son was taught about this in year 9 or 10 as I recall.

I think you need to congratulate the original poster mate, not me, I cannot take credit for that particular ditty.

Economic migration being good for an economy is accepted economic wisdom therefore I am confident that V68's son was taught that in school and you have missed the tone of his post.

veronese68

Bo Duke wrote:

Veronese68 wrote:

Bo Duke wrote:

Yeah.. it's because of population growth. :shock:

Yes, my son was taught about this in year 9 or 10 as I recall.

I think you need to congratulate the original poster mate, not me, I cannot take credit for that particular ditty.

As SC says I was agreeing with the point, even a school child knows that population growth boosts an economy.
But it's much easier to blame those that are different for your troubles.

cycleclinic

I don't believe for moment going back a few posts that migration levels will drop unless the economy declines. No government, I hope, will commit that level of self harm. So population will continue to grow especially if we stay in the single market as I suspect we will. I don't think we have that worry about.

Migration levels depend on economic performance, rule of law, how politically stable the country is all of these have taken a knock but not a terminal one. What migration restrictions have a small part to play, if immigration controls where effective then out side EU migration would be lower than it is currently.

While I am not full optimism for the near term I don't think the long term prospects for the U.K are bleak.

pblakeney

thecycleclinic wrote:

I don't believe for moment going back a few posts that migration levels will drop unless the economy declines. No government, I hope, will commit that level of self harm.

Look around you.
It is already happening.

surrey_commuter

thecycleclinic wrote:

I don't believe for moment going back a few posts that migration levels will drop unless the economy declines. No government, I hope, will commit that level of self harm. So population will continue to grow especially if we stay in the single market as I suspect we will. I don't think we have that worry about.

Migration levels depend on economic performance, rule of law, how politically stable the country is all of these have taken a knock but not a terminal one. What migration restrictions have a small part to play, if immigration controls where effective then out side EU migration would be lower than it is currently.

While I am not full optimism for the near term I don't think the long term prospects for the U.K are bleak.

Economically and demographically we need immigration.

Politically it is another matter... One year after Brexit if net migration is still over 200,000 the knives will come back out.

Lookyhere

Bo Duke wrote:

Lookyhere wrote:

Bo Duke wrote:

jeez these companies are no longer British, they ve grown because of German and Indian investment (our governments would have let them go the same way as our bicycle and motorcycle industries)

You have put at risk where in the future these great products will be manufactured, model investment is every 4 to 5 years, will TATA, VW Nissan invest in the UK or slowly move to more reasoned countries?

Of course they're not British, so how does that affect the great job they're doing? Nissan, Honda, Ford, Vauxhall (Chevy to most everyone else) are obviously not British but the industry is the most efficient in europe!

What do you mean I have put at risk??? Explain please.

Obvious, these companies were growing and now there is doubt, of course they are doing a great job BUT they can equally build great cars anywhere in europe

i m making an assumption you did vote to leave?

interestingly, foreign Sec Hammond has now said, we are not in a position to trigger A50 and that the decision to leave is very poor timing as the EU and its constitute countries are on the brink of changing.