[Another EU thread] What do you think our EU relationship will look like?
bobmcstuff
Posts: 11,196
As above - hoping for discussion of what post-Brexit EU relationship might look like, rather than the political discussion off the other thread 
Options taken from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-e ... m-36639261
Seems currently that senior Conservatives inc. many Leavers support the Norway model, which will be interesting as it requires free movement...
Options taken from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-e ... m-36639261
Seems currently that senior Conservatives inc. many Leavers support the Norway model, which will be interesting as it requires free movement...
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Any pronouncements from either side before Article 50 is invoked can be viewed as posturing at worst, or as an initial negotiating position at best- this includes campaign speeches from leadership candidates. I think we will aim for free movement of labour to replace free movement of people. Don't know if we'll get it though.0
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I guessed Norway model because they won't have the guts for anything else so the exercise will be next to pointless. Anything with free movement and/or a contribution will be very unpopular with a lot of Leave voters but it depends if anyone listens to them or not.0
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I'm not entirely sure that if A50 is activated then the public will be very supportive of the Norway model.0
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Same as Cameron negotiated before plus a high cap on EU migration and a few opt-outs on largely irrelevant regulations. Call it the UK+ model.0
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It will be what we ve got right now, plus what-ever deal the EU do on freedom of movement, but will hoards of eu migrants even want to come here after this debacle has shown us to be like?
no one will instigate the exit, there is no plan, no one thought the outs would win, the economic turmoil will be immense, the markets are starting to return to normality as its starting to dawn on them, that the UK isnt going to leave at all.0 -
Interesting that someone has gone for the Swiss model, since the EU is finding that less and less palatable. Although if the will is there I suppose it is possible.
Looks like a 2/3 majority of BR road cyclists think we won't actually go through with it though!
I left it so that people can change votes, it will be interesting to see if the split changes.0 -
It's not just what Britian wants but what 27 other countries will agree to.
My prediction is Europe can't give way on free movement, if they do Europe fragments as countries try to cherry pick what they want and what they don't want and the European project dies. Europe is prepared to loose the UK, including all the money and trade, to stay alive; just like you cut off a gangrenous limb.
The UK needs access to the common market or the banks and big international business leaves. We simply can't cope without the common market so Britian takes the Norway model and blames big business which replaces Europe as the bogeyman.
In reality nothing will change, remember 75% of MP's wanted to stay and they make the decisions.0 -
We are leaving. Get used to it.
Freedom of movement depends on the Eastern block sticking to the party line, and they don't like the freedom of movement in it's current form either. Poland more or less said this yesterday at DC's EU talks.
This is not going to just be A50 negotiations ie Us vs Them, we will be still sending diplomats and the Foreign Secretary, Trade and Industry Sec, International Development Minister around the EU building relationships and making deals.0 -
Norway model and people who voted out will continue to bemoan immigrants and being told what to do by Brussels while others will be wondering what was the point of it all.0
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mrfpb wrote:We are leaving. Get used to it.
Freedom of movement depends on the Eastern block sticking to the party line, and they don't like the freedom of movement in it's current form either. Poland more or less said this yesterday at DC's EU talks.
This is not going to just be A50 negotiations ie Us vs Them, we will be still sending diplomats and the Foreign Secretary, Trade and Industry Sec, International Development Minister around the EU building relationships and making deals.
Why does nobody read any significance into our EU Commissioner resigning (surely pushed) as he had the finance portfolio and we will not get it back - will we even replace him?
Agree we are leaving - but what will that look like - which is what this thread is all about..0 -
Pross wrote:Norway model and people who voted out will continue to bemoan immigrants and being told what to do by Brussels while others will be wondering what was the point of it all.
It rather makes Farage's rhetoric look so infantile.My blog: http://www.roubaixcycling.cc (kit reviews and other musings)
https://twitter.com/roubaixcc
Facebook? No. Just say no.0 -
Pross wrote:Norway model and people who voted out will continue to bemoan immigrants and being told what to do by Brussels while others will be wondering what was the point of it all.
+1
But don't forget we probably pay as much as before and have laws forced upon us0 -
mrfpb wrote:Any pronouncements from either side before Article 50 is invoked can be viewed as posturing at worst, or as an initial negotiating position at best- this includes campaign speeches from leadership candidates. I think we will aim for free movement of labour to replace free movement of people. Don't know if we'll get it though.
Interesting thought - what would it look like and how would you enforce?0 -
To everybody who thinks we will not activate A50 -what do you think will happen. Surely the EU will get fed up with the uncertainty and force us to leave by making our position untenable.0
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Surrey Commuter wrote:To everybody who thinks we will not activate A50 -what do you think will happen. Surely the EU will get fed up with the uncertainty and force us to leave by making our position untenable.
How? They have no legal grounds to do this.
Are they going to cut off their nose to spite their face?0 -
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2 years won't be remotely enough time for us to negotiate something constructive with the EU even if our desires were reasonable which they won't be. We'll ask for more time but not all EU countries will agree to it and we'll end up expelled from the EU without any deal being negotiated.Faster than a tent.......0
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mrfpb wrote:Freedom of movement depends on the Eastern block sticking to the party line, and they don't like the freedom of movement in it's current form either. Poland more or less said this yesterday at DC's EU talks.
Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia have said that they will block any deal which does not include freedom of movement. They might not like a handful of refugees going to their country, but they sure as hell aren't going to let western countries cream off their most highly skilled workers.0 -
I think it will look like the swiss model that is described on the bbc link at the top - that the EU has been trying to back pedal on. as I say, there is a desire in areas of the EU to change the model, and they may go with the model that the Swiss have.Surrey Commuter wrote:mrfpb wrote:Any pronouncements from either side before Article 50 is invoked can be viewed as posturing at worst, or as an initial negotiating position at best- this includes campaign speeches from leadership candidates. I think we will aim for free movement of labour to replace free movement of people. Don't know if we'll get it though.
Interesting thought - what would it look like and how would you enforce?joe2008 wrote:
Started replying, but the reply is just repeating stuff said ad nauseum on the main EU thread. Essentially a GE on this issue is a gift to UKIP.Surrey Commuter wrote:Pross wrote:Norway model and people who voted out will continue to bemoan immigrants and being told what to do by Brussels while others will be wondering what was the point of it all.
+1
But don't forget we probably pay as much as before and have laws forced upon us
We will have the regulatory instruments that are essential to the single market, but not any of the new Treaties (ever closer political and fiscal union). We would also opt out of Fisheries and Agriculture arrangements (but our rebate is based on our theoretical agriculture contribution, so we are already opted out of the financial element of that)0 -
Rolf F wrote:2 years won't be remotely enough time for us to negotiate something constructive with the EU even if our desires were reasonable which they won't be. We'll ask for more time but not all EU countries will agree to it and we'll end up expelled from the EU without any deal being negotiated.
Sadly, I think you're right here. I can just see Boris Johnson going to the EU, engaging in a bit of political grandstanding for the audience back home, stamping his feet and making demands and just p1ssing the rest of the EU right off, before being forced to cave in and (maybe) accept an even worse deal than the other countries were initially willing to offer. This could be the country's biggest humiliation on the world stage since the Suez Crisis, so I hope that Boris Johnson (if he becomes PM) acts reasonably to avert this.0 -
Whoever thinks a country with no oil and gas to export is worth doing a "Norway" deal with needs to get real.
It's going to be cold turkey at best, probably stuffed too.0 -
A lot of votes for never activating Article 50. I suspect a way may be found to achieve this."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0
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Stevo 666 wrote:A lot of votes for never activating Article 50. I suspect a way may be found to achieve this.
It doesn't need many abstentions at the parliamentary vote for the remain camp to win the day if it is put to the vote, especially if Labour and the SNP gang up.
Was that the answer you were looking for :P0 -
We're not the ones who matter here. It's about MP's and their views on the matter - I posted the scenario I think will happen on the 'big' thread but its quite a few pages back now.mrfpb wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:A lot of votes for never activating Article 50. I suspect a way may be found to achieve this.
But on this site the polls showed 3:1 for Remain."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
I've already given what I think is the answerflorerider wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:A lot of votes for never activating Article 50. I suspect a way may be found to achieve this.
It doesn't need many abstentions at the parliamentary vote for the remain camp to win the day if it is put to the vote, especially if Labour and the SNP gang up.
Was that the answer you were looking for :P
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0
