[Another EU thread] What do you think our EU relationship will look like?
Comments
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Stevo 666 wrote:A lot of votes for never activating Article 50. I suspect a way may be found to achieve this.
I've got a feeling that you're right*. It's a difficult decision to take. If you were PM, would you activate A50, believing you were about to lead the country down the road to disaster, or would you ignore the democratic wish of the people? Either way, I think that unless the next PM gets a democratic mandate to not activate it, his/her tenure will be very, very short.
*Yes, you can copy and paste this and use it against me any time you want in the future.
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I think A50 will be triggered, there is no option. If there was, Cameron would have clung to office to see Boris off.
I also think the SNP position is a curious one. They say that they didn't vote for Brexit so should be able to block it. If that argument is credible, down the line if they have and win an Indy referendum, only the Scots voted for it, so any other part of the UK could block it.
BTw Spain has already said that it would veto Scotland's membership even before wee nippy opened up negotiations.0 -
I may change my sig at some pointfinchy wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:A lot of votes for never activating Article 50. I suspect a way may be found to achieve this.
I've got a feeling that you're right*. It's a difficult decision to take. If you were PM, would you activate A50, believing you were about to lead the country down the road to disaster, or would you ignore the democratic wish of the people? Either way, I think that unless the next PM gets a democratic mandate to not activate it, his/her tenure will be very, very short.
*Yes, you can copy and paste this and use it against me any time you want in the future.
But seriously, if ratifying the referendum result so that article 50 can be activated needs a vote in Parliament when the majority of MP's in all major parties are anti-BREXIT, that's when it gets really interesting."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
mrfpb wrote:
I think it will look like the swiss model that is described on the bbc link at the top - that the EU has been trying to back pedal on. as I say, there is a desire in areas of the EU to change the model, and they may go with the model that the Swiss have.Surrey Commuter wrote:mrfpb wrote:Any pronouncements from either side before Article 50 is invoked can be viewed as posturing at worst, or as an initial negotiating position at best- this includes campaign speeches from leadership candidates. I think we will aim for free movement of labour to replace free movement of people. Don't know if we'll get it though.
Interesting thought - what would it look like and how would you enforce?joe2008 wrote:
Started replying, but the reply is just repeating stuff said ad nauseum on the main EU thread. Essentially a GE on this issue is a gift to UKIP.Surrey Commuter wrote:Pross wrote:Norway model and people who voted out will continue to bemoan immigrants and being told what to do by Brussels while others will be wondering what was the point of it all.
+1
But don't forget we probably pay as much as before and have laws forced upon us
We will have the regulatory instruments that are essential to the single market, but not any of the new Treaties (ever closer political and fiscal union). We would also opt out of Fisheries and Agriculture arrangements (but our rebate is based on our theoretical agriculture contribution, so we are already opted out of the financial element of that)
The consensus is that they will not offer a Swiss deal of bilateral agreements. That pretty much leaves Norway (with all the stuff you voted to be rid of) or WTO.0 -
Ballysmate wrote:I think A50 will be triggered, there is no option. If there was, Cameron would have clung to office to see Boris off.
OK, finchy's wild conspiracy theory here...
Boris Johnson was a remainer until a few months ago, then he jumped ship and pretty much became the head of the leave campaign. Johnson was put in place by the remain campaign in the hope that if leave win, he will work to undermine Brexit if and when he comes into power as a PM, so he'll be able to apologise to the public, say that there's no way he can get a good deal for the UK, and pulling out would be a disaster for Britain and he can't trigger article 50 in good conscience, knowing what it will entail. The leave supporters have their confidence in the cause severely damaged, except for a few diehards who will continue to vote UKIP. We all forget about and continue as before. Farage loses his seat as an MEP and slinks back to Toad Hall where he'll spend the rest of his days in a drunken haze.
I'm going to come clean here.... there's a slight possibility that the above is complete bollox.0 -
Or an even sneakier plan - they do this to encourage referenda in other European countries which if successful would sink the EU Federal Superstate project. We stay in with an opt out from bail outs etc and watch it all collapse.finchy wrote:Ballysmate wrote:I think A50 will be triggered, there is no option. If there was, Cameron would have clung to office to see Boris off.
OK, finchy's wild conspiracy theory here...
Boris Johnson was a remainer until a few months ago, then he jumped ship and pretty much became the head of the leave campaign. Johnson was put in place by the remain campaign in the hope that if leave win, he will work to undermine Brexit if and when he comes into power as a PM, so he'll be able to apologise to the public, say that there's no way he can get a good deal for the UK, and pulling out would be a disaster for Britain and he can't trigger article 50 in good conscience, knowing what it will entail. The leave supporters have their confidence in the cause severely damaged, except for a few diehards who will continue to vote UKIP. We all forget about and continue as before. Farage loses his seat as an MEP and slinks back to Toad Hall where he'll spend the rest of his days in a drunken haze.
I'm going to come clean here.... there's a slight possibility that the above is complete bollox.
It was predicted a long time ago:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37iHSwA1SwE"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Castigated a Tory MP I know about reading the Mail, as did a pile of Tory Councillors in the room.
He didn't believe a word in it, but said it gave him an insight into his voters emotions.
Go figure as they say.0 -
Stevo 666 wrote:
Or an even sneakier plan - they do this to encourage referenda in other European countries which if successful would sink the EU Federal Superstate project. We stay in with an opt out from bail outs etc and watch it all collapse.finchy wrote:Ballysmate wrote:I think A50 will be triggered, there is no option. If there was, Cameron would have clung to office to see Boris off.
OK, finchy's wild conspiracy theory here...
Boris Johnson was a remainer until a few months ago, then he jumped ship and pretty much became the head of the leave campaign. Johnson was put in place by the remain campaign in the hope that if leave win, he will work to undermine Brexit if and when he comes into power as a PM, so he'll be able to apologise to the public, say that there's no way he can get a good deal for the UK, and pulling out would be a disaster for Britain and he can't trigger article 50 in good conscience, knowing what it will entail. The leave supporters have their confidence in the cause severely damaged, except for a few diehards who will continue to vote UKIP. We all forget about and continue as before. Farage loses his seat as an MEP and slinks back to Toad Hall where he'll spend the rest of his days in a drunken haze.
I'm going to come clean here.... there's a slight possibility that the above is complete bollox.
It was predicted a long time ago:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37iHSwA1SwE
Face it Stevo, we're just cut-price manc33s. :oops:0 -
Remain or leave may change completely in the not so distant future.
???
Listening to Mervyn King the other day he was of the opinion that the EU couldn't continue in its present form and would have to change radically. I feel this quite a prevalent attitude amongst the 27.
Isn't there some sort of rebellion against Junkers and Schultz already.
Possibly if we prevaricate long enough about Article 50, It will be changed club and we will be happy to stay in!!!
I think a European free market is an excellent idea, but not the strings attached it that the EU has morphed into.0 -
SoloSuperia wrote:Remain or leave may change completely in the not so distant future.
???
Listening to Mervyn King the other day he was of the opinion that the EU couldn't continue in its present form and would have to change radically. I feel this quite a prevalent attitude amongst the 27.
Isn't there some sort of rebellion against Junkers and Schultz already.
Possibly if we prevaricate long enough about Article 50, It will be changed club and we will be happy to stay in!!!
I think a European free market is an excellent idea, but not the strings attached it that the EU has morphed into.
They are talking about a long-term direction of travel. They have already agreed that ever closer political union is not a goal in itself.
We may want to stay in but why would they want us to. Surely any economic gain is far outweighed by our unstable behaviour?0 -
Ballysmate wrote:I think A50 will be triggered, there is no option. If there was, Cameron would have clung to office to see Boris off.
Potentially that was a bit of a masterstroke / end-of-the-line gambit from Cameron.
He'd originally said that he'd invoke A50 if they lost but having quietly u-turned on that promise he's basically given the Leave campaign a monumental hospital pass. Become Prime Minister Boris, and it's up to you to take us out of Europe, if you dare. Give it enough time for the dust to settle post-referendum and then see if they've got the appetite. If Boris took over as PM then he'd be making himself practically unelectable at the next General Election (although that rather depends on there being some sort of credible opposition anywhere other than Scotland).
From a rather selfish standpoint, I think the key part of the negotiation is in keeping our Passporting for Financial Services. Lose that and the City ups sticks and moves to Paris/Frankfurt taking a shedload of jobs and taxes with it. However it would be so easy for anyone negotiating to take a populist line and stick it to the bankers in exchange for a rather less meaningful movement on immigration or suchlike.
It goes without saying that all that may be complete rubbish and in fact everything is just rosy...0 -
meesterbond wrote:Ballysmate wrote:I think A50 will be triggered, there is no option. If there was, Cameron would have clung to office to see Boris off.
Potentially that was a bit of a masterstroke / end-of-the-line gambit from Cameron.
He'd originally said that he'd invoke A50 if they lost but having quietly u-turned on that promise he's basically given the Leave campaign a monumental hospital pass. Become Prime Minister Boris, and it's up to you to take us out of Europe, if you dare. Give it enough time for the dust to settle post-referendum and then see if they've got the appetite. If Boris took over as PM then he'd be making himself practically unelectable at the next General Election (although that rather depends on there being some sort of credible opposition anywhere other than Scotland).
From a rather selfish standpoint, I think the key part of the negotiation is in keeping our Passporting for Financial Services. Lose that and the City ups sticks and moves to Paris/Frankfurt taking a shedload of jobs and taxes with it. However it would be so easy for anyone negotiating to take a populist line and stick it to the bankers in exchange for a rather less meaningful movement on immigration or suchlike.
It goes without saying that all that may be complete rubbish and in fact everything is just rosy...
I think Cameron did it to give the country a couple of months breathing space. Two years really is not very long to negotiate an exit - this gives us an extra 2-3 months0 -
Joelsim wrote:
Theresa May says: "Brexit means Brexit. The campaign was fought, the vote was held, turnout was high and the public has given its verdict."
With Gove now turning up, Theresa may win.0 -
Interesting article that should help answer the question of what our EU relationship will look like http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21 ... pean-union
To summarise
There will be no negotiation without notification but negotiations about the future can take place at same time as divorce negotiations. They are prepared to wait a few months for notification.
Migration opt-out is laughable.
They think what we have done is such a patent absurdity it will never happen. Merkel happy to let it drag on but others want a speedy exit.
Few are interested in accommodation - they have lost patience.0 -
According to last nights Newsnight, Junker is trying to get all those pesky bureacrats at the EU Parliament, Council and Commission not to talk to each other about Brexit, and telling UK reps not to talk to their gov't about EU matters until A50 is invoked (this is all hearsay from various reporters).
So no negotiation without notification is easy to say, but in practice...0 -
mrfpb wrote:According to last nights Newsnight, Junker is trying to get all those pesky bureacrats at the EU Parliament, Council and Commission not to talk to each other about Brexit, and telling UK reps not to talk to their gov't about EU matters until A50 is invoked (this is all hearsay from various reporters).
So no negotiation without notification is easy to say, but in practice...
it means official negotiation. In our ideal world we would negotiate our exit terms and our future relationship and then trigger A50 and spend two years tying up the loose ends.
we are being frozen out like an employee in their notice period.0 -
Yikes - the devil is in the detail. Contrary to what Inposted above the EU Trade Commissioner is saying no negotiations on the future until the exit is finalised. Legally the EU can not do a trade deal with it's own member and a member can not do it's own trade deal.
If they hang us out to dry then upon exit we go onto standard WTO terms whilst we negotiate our own deal.
I am not saying this will happen but it gives them immense power in the negotiations.
Edit: good news we already a member of WTO.
Does anybody have a link to what WTO tariff rates are?0 -
I think Manc33 should be the next PM. If we are going to go down then we may as well have a laugh in the process.0
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Surrey Commuter wrote:Yikes - the devil is in the detail. Contrary to what Inposted above the EU Trade Commissioner is saying no negotiations on the future until the exit is finalised. Legally the EU can not do a trade deal with it's own member and a member can not do it's own trade deal.
If they hang us out to dry then upon exit we go onto standard WTO terms whilst we negotiate our own deal.
I am not saying this will happen but it gives them immense power in the negotiations.
Edit: good news we already a member of WTO.
Does anybody have a link to what WTO tariff rates are?
Third paragraph from the bottom expresses this, an unquoted source says it puts us in stupid position.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... icle-50-eu0 -
All the way back on page 1 of the Referendum thread I postedHere is a post that I made earlier (As they used to say on Blue Peter)
No apology for repeating it as the issue keeps recurring. Perhaps someone can debunk it.
From an earlier thread.
Re: Own Goal for the Tories
Postby Ballysmate » Thu Apr 02, 2015 8:37 pm
Thanks to the unrecognised but astounding work of the World Trade Organisation there really is no need for either an EU single market. Average import tariffs into the EU are 1.09 per cent for the United States – and it does not bear the cost of EU commissioners and hangers-on, bureaucrats, politicians and advisers, nor an EU parliament or an EU membership fee to gain access to what the Confederation of British Industry claims mistakenly is vital to our economic survival.
Canada, Switzerland and South Korea all have Free Trade agreements with the EU to gain access without cost to the erroneously titled “single market” and the Lisbon Treaty makes the EU duty-bound to give any country leaving – be it the UK or Scotland – the same deal.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/brian-mont ... -1-3634328
Link to Canadian deal
http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countr ... es/canada/
S Korea
http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countr ... uth-korea/
Switzerland
http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countr ... itzerland/
US
http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countr ... ed-states/
I must confess that I am not sufficiently au fait with the Lisbon Treaty to post the relevant link.
A genuine question though. If the quote from The Scotsman, above is accurate, how does the EU hold any great advantage in any upcoming trade negotiations?0 -
WTO rules don't cover everything - many services (including financial services) are excluded, so obviously with Britain's economy, just falling back on WTO rules wouldn't be wise.
Don't forget that while we all chatter about the economy, there are a wide range of other issues on which the EU cooperates, and we'd have to come to an agreement on those as well, which might not be possible if we've p1ssed off certain members by trying to end free movement.0 -
Ballysmate wrote:All the way back on page 1 of the Referendum thread I postedHere is a post that I made earlier (As they used to say on Blue Peter)
No apology for repeating it as the issue keeps recurring. Perhaps someone can debunk it.
From an earlier thread.
Re: Own Goal for the Tories
Postby Ballysmate » Thu Apr 02, 2015 8:37 pm
Thanks to the unrecognised but astounding work of the World Trade Organisation there really is no need for either an EU single market. Average import tariffs into the EU are 1.09 per cent for the United States – and it does not bear the cost of EU commissioners and hangers-on, bureaucrats, politicians and advisers, nor an EU parliament or an EU membership fee to gain access to what the Confederation of British Industry claims mistakenly is vital to our economic survival.
Canada, Switzerland and South Korea all have Free Trade agreements with the EU to gain access without cost to the erroneously titled “single market” and the Lisbon Treaty makes the EU duty-bound to give any country leaving – be it the UK or Scotland – the same deal.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/brian-mont ... -1-3634328
Link to Canadian deal
http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countr ... es/canada/
S Korea
http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countr ... uth-korea/
Switzerland
http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countr ... itzerland/
US
http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countr ... ed-states/
I must confess that I am not sufficiently au fait with the Lisbon Treaty to post the relevant link.
A genuine question though. If the quote from The Scotsman, above is accurate, how does the EU hold any great advantage in any upcoming trade negotiations?
Scotsman link is broken. I was looking for a chart that said set tariff rate are % for cars, % for agriculture. Maybe it does not exist.
We know we don't have a deal with US and it says average tariff is less than 3%. I know the problem is non trade barriers but that is much lower than I expected. I am sure I had read that cars were 10% and agriscience 12%.0 -
joe2008 wrote:Theresa May says: "Brexit means Brexit. The campaign was fought, the vote was held, turnout was high and the public has given its verdict."
And Boris, and Gove, and Farage and Cameron all said stuff before the referendum which they don't say now. Why would you think that Theresa May will do what she says now after she has won her election?Faster than a tent.......0 -
Rolf F wrote:joe2008 wrote:Theresa May says: "Brexit means Brexit. The campaign was fought, the vote was held, turnout was high and the public has given its verdict."
And Boris, and Gove, and Farage and Cameron all said stuff before the referendum which they don't say now. Why would you think that Theresa May will do what she says now after she has won her election?
Rolf is spot on - they are currently tailoring their lies to the 150,000 members of the Tory party. This is a group of swivel eyed loons who have a long list of people they want to deport and/or hang, have school children sing the national anthem every morning, bring back national service, abolish socialism, criminalise homosexulaity etc0 -
Saw this today which is very similar to my view of what I think will happen (much easier to copy and paste rather than write, call it cheating if you want).
After seven days of spectacular chaos, the fog is now starting to lift. I think it is possible to see what the way ahead might look like. Here's my best guess;
1) Theresa May will be the next Tory leader. Although it is not unheard of for the man who wields the knife to wear the crown (think Gordon Brown), I suspect Michael Gove's spectacular, sudden and brutal knifing of his former ally this morning probably does for his own leadership prospects. Even for the Tory party, the sight of this much blood might be too much to stomach.
2) As Theresa's campaign manager, Chris Grayling is likely to be the man in charge of Brexit. I suspect Boris Johnson and (if he doesn't win) Michael Gove are probably finished as serious forces in modern British politics. Their behaviour seems frankly erratic. And that is putting it politely.
3) Theresa May has already said she won't trigger Article Fifty this year. I think this kicks it firmly into the long grass. That is not the same as saying we are going to stay in the EU, after all - I suspect that boat has sailed - but Theresa May is a quiet, cautious politician. My every instinct is that she will hit the brake and keep her foot on it for a very long time. As the country senses this, an uneasy calm may begin to descend.
4) Mr Juncker can say what he likes, our future relationship with the EU is going to be decided by one woman above all others; Angela Merkel. In their first meeting, I imagine Theresa will make an argument that goes something like this; 'I have not triggered article fifty and I have no plans to do so any time soon. We helped to build the Single Market, we are a critical part of the European economy and it makes no sense to exclude us. I will not trigger our departure until there is a clear understanding that there will be no attempt to punish us. That said, whilst we might accept the principle of freedom of movement per se ( in a world where the GDP per capita ratios of member countries are aligned) it is clearly creating strains across the continent. This is not just a British problem. Therefore, what is required is a measure that returns control of immigration policy to national governments. You could call it an emergency brake - thus preserving the absolute principle of Freedom of Movement. Once the economies of member countries come into GDP per capita alignment, the problem is likely to evaporate. No one is complaining about the influx of Italians into the UK. If you, Angela, do not agree to this, the problems will spread to other populations and other countries. You know this, therefore the way ahead is clear.'
5) The fact that this conversation is likely to take place in private between two quiet, clever, cautious women suggests to me that there is a much higher prospect of success than might otherwise be the case (if I am sounding like an out and out feminist here, that is because each passing day makes me more of one...). It is also possible that a third woman in the same mould may join the conversation from the White House in November. This in itself could provide a major contribution to calming everything down. That said, the noisy entrance of a President Trump might push Angela Merkel and Theresa May closer together anyway.
6) By allowing concessions within the EU, Ms Merkel would reduce the incentive for other countries to leave. For those in the Euro, leaving is fraught with all kinds of attendant complications anyway, so there is a decent chance that the sense the centre is listening and yielding on immigration policy may take the heat out of the equation and make it easier for progress to be achieved in areas that are arguably more central to the German mission (such as proper fiscal union).
7) In this scenario (dependent on a lot of 'ifs', I grant you), one might argue that there would be, in the end, little point in us ever actually leaving the EU (if we have got what we always wanted, why leave?). But there are a few other points to consider here. It is not just that we have voted to leave (a pretty central fact for the incoming Prime Minister in itself). The truth is very few people have bothered to make a positive case for the EU in recent times. It has been repeatedly used as the scapegoat for a million issues and, true or not, it is very hard to reverse that tide of rhetoric. If Ms May could achieve what I suspect she would want - a quiet, cautious divorce that keeps us in the Single Market, retains the City's status as the financial capital of Europe and settles the rest of the EU down - then that is likely to prove a much more attractive political option than going over the ground a second time.
But of course 10 minutes is a long time in politics...depends on many things I guess, breaking news is that Eric Pickles has eaten 4 MPs today.0 -
Point 4 - uncontrolled immigration between EU countries is highly unlikely to be curtailed. Why would the poorer countries agree to let the richer countries pick and choose who they want, and strip those poorer countries of all their most highly skilled workers? It's completely unrealistic to expect them to agree to that. What is more likely is that the EU countries will come together to restrict immigration from outside the EU.0
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Rolf F wrote:joe2008 wrote:Theresa May says: "Brexit means Brexit. The campaign was fought, the vote was held, turnout was high and the public has given its verdict."
And Boris, and Gove, and Farage and Cameron all said stuff before the referendum which they don't say now. Why would you think that Theresa May will do what she says now after she has won her election?
Because she is a woman of course 0 -
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that I think a lot of the leave voters did so under the impression that all the Polish et al would get the boot and don't really have a clue what the whole in/out in/out* thing is all about.
*no hokey kokey was sung during the making of this post.Advocate of disc brakes.0
