Le Tour 2016 - pre race chat
Comments
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hanshotfirst wrote:
I jumped on Bardet a few weeks back EW. Was 130-1 on skybet I think.0 -
Good betting isn't about predicting what you think what will happened, it's about finding odds that you think underestimate the chances of an event happening.Rick Chasey wrote:hanshotfirst wrote:
You really think he'll end up on the podium?Twitter: @RichN950 -
And 10/1 (ish) against him getting on the podium surely isn't *that* outlandish?Team My Man 2018: David gaudu, Pierre Latour, Romain Bardet, Thibaut pinot, Alexandre Geniez, Florian Senechal, Warren Barguil, Benoit Cosnefroy0
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one things for certain, BMC putting their money on either Porte or Van Garderen means that they've probably got 6th place sewn up ( but by which one I don't really know!).
They miss Cadel don't they, Both TJVG and RP are super domestiques really at this level.0 -
philbar72 wrote:one things for certain, BMC putting their money on either Porte or Van Garderen means that they've probably got 6th place sewn up ( but by which one I don't really know!).
They miss Cadel don't they, Both TJVG and RP are super domestiques really at this level.
Porte is a proven 1 week racer. TJVG, a few less 1 week successes. Either way, yeah, BMC are covering that 6th position, as odds on one or t'other either having a massive mare on one of the mountain stages, or bailing altogether, are higher than a very high thing0 -
yeah, sorry, interms of being 1 week racers both are solid and Porte is very very good. but over 3 weeks... nope.
Anyone have any thoughts on Bauke Mollema? obviously not an out right challenger... but...0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:hanshotfirst wrote:
You really think he'll end up on the podium?
Wouldn't bet the mortgage on it or anything. Know it's unlikely but... I dunno, seems to be going well, right?0 -
If the bunch sprints at the Route du Sud were anything to go by, they could be utterly bonkers at the Tour.0
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RichN95 wrote:
Good betting isn't about predicting what you think what will happened, it's about finding odds that you think underestimate the chances of an event happening.Rick Chasey wrote:hanshotfirst wrote:
You really think he'll end up on the podium?
Better a short price winner than a long price loser...Half man, Half bike0 -
Ridgerider wrote:RichN95 wrote:
Good betting isn't about predicting what you think what will happened, it's about finding odds that you think underestimate the chances of an event happening.Rick Chasey wrote:hanshotfirst wrote:
You really think he'll end up on the podium?
Better a short price winner than a long price loser...
#punterlogicTeam My Man 2018: David gaudu, Pierre Latour, Romain Bardet, Thibaut pinot, Alexandre Geniez, Florian Senechal, Warren Barguil, Benoit Cosnefroy0 -
effillo wrote:hanshotfirst wrote:
I jumped on Bardet a few weeks back EW. Was 130-1 on skybet I think.
I got Bardet at 125/1 each way too.
I think Froome and Quintana are clearly on a different level to the rest of the field. Of the other favourites, I don't think there is much between them so if things go his way, Bardet *could* be up there. The course suits him and his team will be 100% behind him. 125/1 was a huge price, even at 80/1 it's still great odds.0 -
If you assume 2 of Froome, Contador, Quintana will be on the podium (not unreasonable), then you can see why the odds for guys who aren't them are in the 50+/1 range.
Bardet is decent for top 10.
I'd say 40% chance he's top 5, if i'm feeling generous.0 -
If we're talking each way, Pinot is a decent shout as someone who has been on the podium before at 25/1.
I've seen Valverde at a ridiculous 100/1 but again, he'll be top 10 at best.
You could get Nick Roche at 1250 / 1 but I presume that means he's not starting?0 -
The GC is between Froome and Quintana for me. it'll be close between them (around the 1 minute mark) and then 5 plus to 3rd and over 10 behind that. They are so much stronger than anyone else in this race, and have proven it time and time again.
Contador will struggle to be top 10.
I don't know if Cav will even bother starting, if he does it almost certainly means he doesn't care as much about the olympics as I thought he does. With bunch sprints being contested between so many riders now, I just see it being a disaster waiting to happen.
1 Froome
2 Quintana
3 Pinot
4 Porte
5 Aru0 -
I would not write Contador off that quickly myself.
Don't think he'll win mind, although you never know what might happen with crashes etc.0 -
bobmcstuff wrote:I would not write Contador off that quickly myself.
Don't think he'll win mind, although you never know what might happen with crashes etc.
He can't keep up with Quintana and Froome when they are at their best. Don't see him doing much other than maybe a Nibali 2014 style stage win. He doesn't seem interested once he's out of the GC to me.0 -
Contador isn't the rider he once was. Pretty sure he'll be 5th to 7th.0
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Gee at 101 is an each way bet should Froome get injured and Gee becomes team leader....TailWindHome wrote:'Performance analysis and Froome not being clean was a media driven story. I haven’t heard one guy in the peloton say a negative thing about Froome, and I haven’t heard a single person in the peloton suggest Froome isn’t clean.' TSP0 -
Not after his performance in Suisse.0
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Yeah I don't think G is in the same form as the others, based on Suisse.0
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If Landa's riding you'd think he'd be a better back up shout than GT for Sky.
Putting aside the overall battle between big names, there's potential to have plenty of potential intra-team drama -
BMC - Porte v TJ VG, esp if Porte takes off with Froome on the first MTF stage, gapping TJ
Astana - Nibs has the Giro in his legs, but there's clearly little love for Aru or the team, be great if he just goes Rogue, and may well feel entitled if Aru is a up & down as he was at the Dauphine.
lower key - Lotto Jumbo - Gesink v Kelderman, Trek - Mollema / Hesjedal, Cannondale - Rolland / Talansky.
Where people seem to think there may be issues - Movistar, because they suggest for all his statements of support Valverde can't be trusted - I don't think will actually have issues. Whilst Valverde has shown he's not averse to stitching up supposed mates like J-Rod, Movistar (Visconti aside) seem to have a very strong team spirit and he and Nairo do appear to gel well. Am a bit surprised Valv is riding to be honest as thought he'd want another crack at the Vuelta.0 -
I'm looking forward to having Oricas backstage pass back. Vuelta and Giro were great, Chavez is such a likeable chap.0
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Fran Millar announces on Twitter: Froome, Henao, Kiriyenka, Landa, Nieve, Poels, Rowe, Stannard, Thomas
Strong team that.0 -
No Kwiatkowski. Surprise based on his palmares, but not a surprise based on his form.0
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Turfle wrote:No Kwiatkowski. Surprise based on his palmares, but not a surprise based on his form.
Yeah me too but I imagine he fancies Rio this year, so maybe made the choice to focus on that. He's not been up to much this year.0 -
Shadowrider wrote:Turfle wrote:No Kwiatkowski. Surprise based on his palmares, but not a surprise based on his form.
Yeah me too but I imagine he fancies Rio this year, so maybe made the choice to focus on that. He's not been up to much this year.
Not sure that Kwiato made the choice.
This is the team I personally would have gone with based on form and ability. Henao, Poels and Kiry will offer more to the team than Kwiato given the objectives.0 -
I'd have had Puccio over Kiry, but hard to pick much fault in that team really.0
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Turfle wrote:I'd have had Puccio over Kiry, but hard to pick much fault in that team really.
Seriously? You'd have left the strongest strong man out?0 -
Kiry has ridiculously, monstrously strong days, and then he has 10 where he's the weakest rider in the team. I'd have had Puccio's consistency.0
