Tour De France 2016
ocdupalais
Posts: 4,317
I appreciate this is a thread for the off season, but seeing as it's chilly, wet and autumnal, I'll sling it out there now while the thoughts occur to me:
Dumoulin - as it seems a new contender has thrown his hat in the GT GC ring, will he and a reshaped team look to not muck about with the "smaller sh1t races" in Italy and Spain and go straight for the Tour? No doubt they'll publicly state that they'll make a decision once they've seen the routes - which in turn might encourage ASO to stick a dirty great long/flattish TT in the course? And will that TT occur at some point during the first week favouring Froome and Dumoulin - followed by some brutal back-to-back climbing stages particularly in the third week to have another look to see at what point those 2 crack? Or will the Giro organisers dangle a carrot too tasty to resist for Giant Shimano (i.e. a dirty great long/flattish TT) in what at this point in time is looking like it could be a bit thin on the ground in terms of GT big hitters?
Bertie has already stated that it's all about the Tour next year: Froome as defending champ and Quintana are bound to target it - and Nibbles and his monumental ego has had a shocker that even winning the Giro in 2016 would not overcome, so surely must also do the Tour, too.
And will OGE go all-in with Chaves and the Yates Bros, or spread them about a bit?
Dumoulin - as it seems a new contender has thrown his hat in the GT GC ring, will he and a reshaped team look to not muck about with the "smaller sh1t races" in Italy and Spain and go straight for the Tour? No doubt they'll publicly state that they'll make a decision once they've seen the routes - which in turn might encourage ASO to stick a dirty great long/flattish TT in the course? And will that TT occur at some point during the first week favouring Froome and Dumoulin - followed by some brutal back-to-back climbing stages particularly in the third week to have another look to see at what point those 2 crack? Or will the Giro organisers dangle a carrot too tasty to resist for Giant Shimano (i.e. a dirty great long/flattish TT) in what at this point in time is looking like it could be a bit thin on the ground in terms of GT big hitters?
Bertie has already stated that it's all about the Tour next year: Froome as defending champ and Quintana are bound to target it - and Nibbles and his monumental ego has had a shocker that even winning the Giro in 2016 would not overcome, so surely must also do the Tour, too.
And will OGE go all-in with Chaves and the Yates Bros, or spread them about a bit?
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For me, Froome at his peak is the man to beat. As good as Dumoulin was at the Vuelta he's no match for Froome in the mountains and neither is Aru.
It will be between Quintana and Froome next year. Contador will be there but i think part of his head will know he's bowing out and it will actually work against him.
As for Nibs i think that may depend on if he changes teams. But i still don't think he can match a Froome/Quintana at their peak.
One of the Yates will be given the lead over Chavez i believe unless they target another GT and let Chavez have a pop.
I'll be interested to see if Giant start to move towards creating a team around Dumoulin for the Tour. If he loses a few kg's, they get a few decent climbers to lead him over the mountain stages then it could be a different story, but for me they have to go some to stop that SKY team.0 -
Regarding Nibali - might well depend on if he's still at Astana. Clearly there are issues there, or he believes there to be at at least, and Aru is now the new shining star. Aru may well be pushing for leadership at the Tour after 2 good Giros and a Vuelta win.
Can't quite see where he might fit elsewhere tho for 2016 given his salary and / or other big GC names (Katusha?), so a more likely scenario might see him grin and bear it through 2016 then head to Tinkoff to replace Alberto.
Cannondale to go all in for Uran for the Giro?0 -
Prudie gone off the long TTs for a while - but they'll be back, in a while. Not next year, I suspect
Dumoulin did amazingly well with bugger all support in the mountains for the vast majority of stages - all kudos to him. But I suspect he'll find it a different proposition in Jul in France, when everyone's on the top of their game.0 -
Don't forget that Giant also have Barguil... I do wonder where he and Dumoulin stack up in the hierarchy. And lets not forget that this has been a sprint team, so much depends on how Kittel starts performing.
As ever on the route Velowire gives a preview...
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Usually reliable Velowire suggests next year will have both a long(ish?) flat/undulating ITT and a mountain TT (penultimate stage)
I expect Astana will focus with Aru on the Tour. Dumoulin may target another Vuelta or Giro, befoire fully targetting a whole season on the TdF. There's also the matter of Kittel. It may depend on his recovery what Giant focuses on next year at the Tour0 -
Usually reliable Velowire suggests next year will have both a long(ish?) flat/undulating ITT and a mountain TT (penultimate stage)
I expect Astana will focus with Aru on the Tour. Dumoulin may target another Vuelta or Giro, befoire fully targetting a whole season on the TdF. There's also the matter of Kittel. It may depend on his recovery what Giant focuses on next year at the Tour
Really?? That does surprise....0 -
Though they would have visited the Vosges next year?
Pretty sure Barguil will be Giant's main man for the Tour given the publicity he can gain receive even if he only manages to be top French rider.0 -
Looks like they go anti-clock next year, so no cobbles and no Vosges. Instead early Massif Central hills[url=http://www.[list]bikeradar[/list].com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19702876#p19702876]Pross[/url] wrote:Though they would have visited the Vosges next year?
Pretty sure Barguil will be Giant's main man for the Tour given the publicity he can gain receive even if he only manages to be top French rider.0 -
Contador's last Tour. Contador's 10th GT win.
Got to start planning my logistics for those three weeks.
Going to brave the stupid fans that go to the Tour, although the thought of them and the accompanying circus may mean I will just work on getting intel for his 7hr training rides and meet him there.
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Will be upping the quality of the signage though.Contador is the Greatest0 -
The general consensus seems clockwise?? and no massif or cobbles (good) - that velowire looks an odd route??
That Pont D'arc tt would be a good spectacle
Looking forward to this one as buying a VW California and it will be its first big run
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I love Vallon Pont D'Arc, probably because it was the destination of my end-of-schooldays holiday. Would love to get down there for a few days.0
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will certainly look good on camera - great times round there and the ride down to Montpelier is great through UzesI love Vallon Pont D'Arc, probably because it was the destination of my end-of-schooldays holiday. Would love to get down there for a few days.
#this route is not official yet!0 -
[url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19702911#p19702911]SpecialGuestStar[/url] wrote:The general consensus seems clockwise?? and no massif or cobbles (good) - that velowire looks an odd route??
That Pont D'arc tt would be a good spectacle
Looking forward to this one as buying a VW California and it will be its first big run
so which will be the stage route used by the etape? The last couple of years have had start and finish very close to ease logistics.
The Tour hasn't been to the Tarantaise valley for a while, so no great surprise to see La Rosiere in there.
I hadn't realised Seez and Alencon were start / finish towns - might have to have a few day's at my sister's french pad just east of Alencon!0 -
That map has been dismissed by Velowire as specualtion, not inside-knowledge. Of course he can be wrong, but going on previous years I wouldn't bet agains him. I'm expecting anti-clockwise[url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19702911#p19702911]SpecialGuestStar[/url] wrote:The general consensus seems clockwise?? and no massif or cobbles (good) - that velowire looks an odd route??
That Pont D'arc tt would be a good spectacle
Looking forward to this one as buying a VW California and it will be its first big run0 -
Both maps include Morzine...my current favourite corner of the Alps, will need to plan next years trip carefully...Half man, Half bike0
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That map has been dismissed by Velowire as specualtion, not inside-knowledge. Of course he can be wrong, but going on previous years I wouldn't bet agains him. I'm expecting anti-clockwise
Yes I'm not so sure now as there is no Andorra and that is supposed to be definitely in ??
Still think clockwise though - this years was anti?0 -
Doesn't it always alternate? Alps first in even years, Pyrenees second, and in odd years, Pyrenees first, Alps second?
Alencon has certainly applied to be a start / finish town in 2016 or 2017.0 -
Yeah, normally alternating. But Prudhomme made some statement along the lines of 'there are no dogmas' recently - which could refer to thatDoesn't it always alternate? Alps first in even years, Pyrenees second, and in odd years, Pyrenees first, Alps second?.0 -
08 & 09 both had Pyrenees first. There are no dogmas0
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Will be upping the quality of the signage though.
and the shorts, one hopes0 -
I've just discovered Tarbes and Lourdes are only 21 kms apart, so that could be the Etape stage...
those with a knowledge of the Pyrenean climbs, which ones might feature on a stage between those two towns?0 -
Will be upping the quality of the signage though.
and the shorts, one hopes
Hope he doesn't put the dirty white shoes and dirty white socks on too! 0 -
the Bordeaux /Limoges stages interest me. Hopefully Operation acquisition of Chez Peril in that region will have completed by then...0
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[url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19702975#p19702975]TakeTheHighRoad[/url] wrote:08 & 09 both had Pyrenees first. There are no dogmas
Andorra is supposed to have the second rest day
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Could be Andorra or Morzine too - both getting heavy focusI've just discovered Tarbes and Lourdes are only 21 kms apart, so that could be the Etape stage...
Tourmalet, Aubisque, perhaps Aspin or Marie-Blanque. Long way after the last col to the finish for both towns thoughthose with a knowledge of the Pyrenean climbs, which ones might feature on a stage between those two towns?0 -
Will be upping the quality of the signage though.
I think it's the shorts that need a quality review IMHO !
Edit: Just realised Crozza beat me to it0 -
Surely the Etape would be in France and not in another country (Andorra) as they would want to maximize the benefit for france?0
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Usually reliable Velowire suggests next year will have both a long(ish?) flat/undulating ITT and a mountain TT (penultimate stage)
I expect Astana will focus with Aru on the Tour. Dumoulin may target another Vuelta or Giro, befoire fully targetting a whole season on the TdF. There's also the matter of Kittel. It may depend on his recovery what Giant focuses on next year at the Tour
Aru is not ready for the tour..0 -
Usually reliable Velowire suggests next year will have both a long(ish?) flat/undulating ITT and a mountain TT (penultimate stage)
I expect Astana will focus with Aru on the Tour. Dumoulin may target another Vuelta or Giro, befoire fully targetting a whole season on the TdF. There's also the matter of Kittel. It may depend on his recovery what Giant focuses on next year at the Tour
Aru is not ready for the tour..BBC Sport wrote:Speaking after the race Astana general manager, Alexander Vinokourov said Aru would now be targeting the Tour De France.
He said: "We will discuss his schedule for next year over the next few weeks but it is going to be all about the Tour de France.
"We have seen how strong he is over the past three weeks and I am sure we will see it again next year."
Looks like Astana are going all-in on him. I think we'll see Nibali riding next year's Tour for someone else. The Lampreys, I reckon.It's only a bit of sport, Mun. Relax and enjoy the racing.0 -
Could be Andorra or Morzine too - both getting heavy focusI've just discovered Tarbes and Lourdes are only 21 kms apart, so that could be the Etape stage...
Tourmalet, Aubisque, perhaps Aspin or Marie-Blanque. Long way after the last col to the finish for both towns thoughthose with a knowledge of the Pyrenean climbs, which ones might feature on a stage between those two towns?
But when was the last year they didn't have a mountain top finish though?
I do agree with the circle type route though. Thought they had learnt that lesson.Scott Addict 2011
Giant TCR 20120
