The big four and the Tour

ugo.santalucia
ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,310
edited July 2015 in Pro race
On paper looks like a classic edition of the Tour... can't remember the last time we had 4 credible contenders and all former GT winners... however

1) Contador should be the most relaxed, whatever happens he already has had a good season, which can become a memorable or not. His team is the weakest and I don't fancy his chances much because of that

2) Nibali is a big X... so far invisible and disappointing in the spring classics campaign, but he did the same last year, so would not want to rule him out for yellow. He needs to win or it will be a season to bin... the team did look awesome at the Giro, but will Landa be there to help? And Gasparotto?

3) Froome has a good team, but not as good as 2-3 years ago... will Porte be there to help? Will Thomas be as strong in the mountains as in the past? I think Froome is not as dominant as he was in 2012-2013, but that's only my feeling

4) Quintana is the big favourite in a Tour with little time trialling. His team is strong and he can ride anyone off his wheel if he has a good day. He has no weaknesses... sun, rain or snow he can deliver. I bet he can even ride the stones
left the forum March 2023
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Comments

  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    I'm not sure I agree on Nairo, yet. True that the Tour has little ITTing so it is his perfect chance, but he has yet to beat Froome or Bert when they are on top climbing form. I personally think he is slightly below the other 3 at this moment, but he is young.
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,310
    Joelsim wrote:
    I'm not sure I agree on Nairo, yet. True that the Tour has little ITTing so it is his perfect chance, but he has yet to beat Froome or Bert when they are on top climbing form. I personally think he is slightly below the other 3 at this moment, but he is young.

    Bit of a strange statement... 2013 was his first GT... since then he did beat everybody at the Tirreno Adriatico, including Contador. Other than that he never had the chance to beat them, given he crashed out of the Vuelta last year. Give him a chance...
    left the forum March 2023
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    I'm not saying he is a bad rider, he clearly is a superstar. I just think that the other 3 are slightly ahead at the moment.
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,310
    Joelsim wrote:
    I'm not saying he is a bad rider, he clearly is a superstar. I just think that the other 3 are slightly ahead at the moment.

    I think the opposite... his display of power at the Tirreno Adriatico has no equal in 2015... Contador is not infallible, as he showed the other day (and even the day before to an extent)... while Nibali and Froome have not done much in 2015 to show their form... Nibali has done nothing, in fact
    left the forum March 2023
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    I just feel that there have been quite a few stages where I have expected Quintana to fly away towards the summit only to see him dropping and finishing 8th or so, against lesser riders in week-long tours. He seems to struggle a little when it gets really steep. Froome has been ill, Bert probably paid the price of the Astana dominance at the end, and Nibali hey, he always seems to peak at the right time for some reason
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,310
    Joelsim wrote:
    I just feel that there have been quite a few stages where I have expected Quintana to fly away towards the summit only to see him dropping and finishing 8th or so, against lesser riders in week-long tours. He seems to struggle a little when it gets really steep. Froome has been ill, Bert probably paid the price of the Astana dominance at the end, and Nibali hey, he always seems to peak at the right time for some reason

    Even if that was the case... the Tour is perfect as there are no steep climbs... :wink:
    In terms of individual riders, I think Nibali is the weakest link, but he has a good team, if they use the same octane petrol we have seen at the Giro.
    Froome being ill is the story of his career, unfortunately...
    left the forum March 2023
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,879
    Just looked at the route. I'm sure everyone know this:
    - There is a prologue and a TTT, but no TT.
    - 13.3km of cobbles
    - Alp d'huez on final day
    - Time bonuses for the first 9 stages
    - A couple of murs

    Not sure who all of the above favours - maybe the rider with the strongest team, but I suspect the best climber will be the winner in the end. Would be nice to see all the profiles without having to click on every stage.
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    Astana will be using the same octane petrol as they have shown time and again.
  • secretsqirrel
    secretsqirrel Posts: 2,118
    ugo.santalucia wrote:
    On paper looks like a classic edition of the Tour... can't remember the last time we had 4 credible contenders and all former GT winners... however

    1) Contador should be the most relaxed, whatever happens he already has had a good season, which can become a memorable or not. His team is the weakest and I don't fancy his chances much because of that

    2) Nibali is a big X... so far invisible and disappointing in the spring classics campaign, but he did the same last year, so would not want to rule him out for yellow. He needs to win or it will be a season to bin... the team did look awesome at the Giro, but will Landa be there to help? And Gasparotto?

    3) Froome has a good team, but not as good as 2-3 years ago... will Porte be there to help? Will Thomas be as strong in the mountains as in the past? I think Froome is not as dominant as he was in 2012-2013, but that's only my feeling

    4) Quintana is the big favourite in a Tour with little time trialling. His team is strong and he can ride anyone off his wheel if he has a good day. He has no weaknesses... sun, rain or snow he can deliver. I bet he can even ride the stones

    Quintana is my favourite out of the 4. He is strong and consistent.
    Nibs will have a strong team. Gasparotto is no longer with Astana he transfered. Vino wants Aru in the team, and there is also Fuglsang who has been a beast in the last 2 tours. Guessing Landa might get the Vuelta?
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,310
    SecretSqirrel wrote:
    Gasparotto is no longer with Astana he transfered.

    I meant Tiralongo... not sure why I wrote Gasparotto
    left the forum March 2023
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,879
    Bookermakers have the following:

    Quintana - 3.55
    Froome - 4
    Contador - 4.5
    Nibali - 5.5

    Very close.
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,310
    TheBigBean wrote:
    Bookermakers have the following:

    Quintana - 3.55
    Froome - 4
    Contador - 4.5
    Nibali - 5.5

    Very close.

    Spot on, I'm with the bookies
    left the forum March 2023
  • tangled_metal
    tangled_metal Posts: 4,021
    Am I the only one who does not care so long as we have a good race? Sorry if I am off topic or off sentiment with you more seasoned GT fans, but my view is that there is a race to the end not a race in the first half and a procession to the end with a dominant team. Not sure if that happens these days or not but I am planning to get back into TdF watching this year after a break of several years.

    I am talking about Fignon/Lemond year is better than someone just sitting in the middle of the bunch on the last day because he has a solid lead. I know both races are part of the TdF but I am hoping there will be a huge element of doubt over the winner right up to at least the penultimate day. Anything can happen but when was the last time someone got to the last or penultimate day with a fairly intact team and a good lead of several minutes only to not win in Paris at the end??

    I am so out of date following the tour so perhaps i am not being fair here. I am hoping to see the likes of Delgado cracking but somehow coming right back to only just finish behind IIRC Roche and then to go on and win the tour. There have been other memories of my youth watching C4 tour coverage that I would like to see matched or bettered in a modern tour.

    Am I being unfair or just not getting it?

    PS I am always a fan of climbers, I love the mountain stages so whoever wins if he is a star in the mountains I will be happy too. Remember the stage Froome was in support of Wiggins (on his TdF win) when it looked patently a case that without team orders Froome could have left him standing. however that is the nature of the team and to be commended in Froome.
  • frenchfighter
    frenchfighter Posts: 30,642
    ugo.santalucia wrote:
    TheBigBean wrote:
    Bookermakers have the following:

    Quintana - 3.55
    Froome - 4
    Contador - 4.5
    Nibali - 5.5

    Very close.

    Spot on, I'm with the bookies

    Yeah that's pretty decent.
    TheBigBean wrote:
    Just looked at the route. I'm sure everyone know this:
    - There is a prologue and a TTT, but no TT.
    - 13.3km of cobbles
    - Alp d'huez on final day
    - Time bonuses for the first 9 stages
    - A couple of murs

    Not sure who all of the above favours - maybe the rider with the strongest team, but I suspect the best climber will be the winner in the end. Would be nice to see all the profiles without having to click on every stage.

    Thanks - didn't realise there were time bonuses. Unlikely to suit Contador but then none of those four are particularly good sprinters and Contador is the most astute rider so you never know.
    Contador is the Greatest
  • frenchfighter
    frenchfighter Posts: 30,642
    Quintana is another like Aru who is just pure talent, only better.

    Three of those above are my men and Froome's racing is often aggressive - should be a great Tour.

    Quintana can out-climb Contador yes but Contador can also out-climb Quintana. The lack of TT miles is dis-advantagous to Contador.
    Contador is the Greatest
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,310
    frenchfighter wrote:

    Thanks - didn't realise there were time bonuses. Unlikely to suit Contador but then none of those four are particularly good sprinters and Contador is the most astute rider so you never know.

    going to be breadcrumbs though...
    left the forum March 2023
  • frenchfighter
    frenchfighter Posts: 30,642
    Tangled Metal did you watch the Giro this year? From what you are saying, it sounds like you may have appreciated it a lot.
    Contador is the Greatest
  • frenchfighter
    frenchfighter Posts: 30,642
    Dauphine starts on Sunday and Froome is racing. Not sure if Quintana is though?
    Contador is the Greatest
  • salsiccia1
    salsiccia1 Posts: 3,725
    TheBigBean wrote:
    Bookermakers have the following:

    Quintana - 3.55
    Froome - 4
    Contador - 4.5
    Nibali - 5.5

    Very close.

    I'd have Nibali at the same as Quintana, and Contador and Froome on the same. I think the route will suit Nibali, especially earlier stages.
    It's only a bit of sport, Mun. Relax and enjoy the racing.
  • milton50
    milton50 Posts: 3,856
    I just hope the four are in good form and all of them complete the Tour i.e. it is decided by the cycling and not by injuries or accidents.

    I'm a fan of Quintana so I hope he gets it. I would give him the slight edge at the moment simply because Contador has the Giro in his legs and I think it will tell by the final week.
  • Macaloon
    Macaloon Posts: 5,545
    It's not just the pneumatic hearts and diamond minds that make the four tops so exciting, it's that 3 of them have the chance to depose an all-time great. Similarly, Froome ( :wink: ) is desperate to assert his dominance over this generation, especially Contador. (Or vice versa as you prefer).

    The outcome could literally alter the fates of nations. But I'm not getting my hopes up. If all 4 take the line in good shape I'll find something genuinely positive to say about SDB every day of the Tour.

    How can we get these specimens in the same event more often, without altering the nature of the GTs too much? How about awarding time bonuses for the Tour according to your Giro finish?

    The Top 4 seem well-matched so a 2 minute bonus is a significant benefit. Enough to risk the fatigue of the Giro in the Tour? They are also consistently 4-5 minutes ahead of the next tier so won't change the rest of the race much.

    2 mins bonus for 1st in Giro
    1:30 - 2nd
    1:00 - 3rd

    I'm completely ignoring the organizational obstacles. Does it make sporting sense?
    ...a rare 100% loyal Pro Race poster. A poster boy for the community.
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,310
    Macaloon wrote:
    I'm completely ignoring the organizational obstacles. Does it make sporting sense?

    No...
    left the forum March 2023
  • frenchfighter
    frenchfighter Posts: 30,642
    Macaloon wrote:
    Similarly, Froome ( :wink: ) is desperate to assert his dominance over this generation, especially Contador.

    Indeed he is. He has only 8 GTs to go at time of writing. Only two years younger than Contador so he just needs a few GT doubles and he will be there in no time.
    Contador is the Greatest
  • Crozza
    Crozza Posts: 991
    as someone who thought Contador was past it and would get pwned by Porte in the Giro, I'm staying well away from any predictions

    I just hope that we finally get a race decided on talent and tactics, not crashes and punctures
  • thomthom
    thomthom Posts: 3,574
    Froome will comfortably win it. No question about it.
  • Crozza
    Crozza Posts: 991
    TheBigBean wrote:
    Would be nice to see all the profiles without having to click on every stage.

    like this?

    http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/racing/t ... 015-140386
  • imatfaal
    imatfaal Posts: 2,716
    ThomThom wrote:
    Froome will comfortably win it. No question about it.

    With as much distance over cobbles as there is in individual time trial I am not so confident for Froome. Rain on the 7th July over the cobbles to Cambrai and Froome's tour could be done very quickly.

    Just as long as accidents, penalties, mechanicals, or drug scandals don't decide it I will be happy; and if it is half the race that the Giro was.

    Astana with Nibali look very good - but Quintana would be my bet
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    frenchfighter wrote:
    Dauphine starts on Sunday and Froome is racing. Not sure if Quintana is though?

    Quintana is racing Route Du Sud, as is Contador. Froome and Nibali are doing the Dauphine.

    Latest odds as of this minute.
  • norvernrob
    norvernrob Posts: 1,448
    frenchfighter wrote:
    Dauphine starts on Sunday and Froome is racing. Not sure if Quintana is though?

    Just Froome and Nibali out of the top 4 I think.

    To me, the only doubt about Froome is his fitness. If he is 100% for the Tour I can't see anyone beating him in a straight fight, he's too strong. But if he's slightly off, as we've seen more often than not lately, one of the others (probably Quintana) could take it.

    I just can't take Nibali seriously against the other 3 in the mountains, yes he looked great last year but the others weren't there. And I can't see Contador beating an in-form Froome and Quintana this time.

    All I'm hoping is that all 4 make it to the Tour fit, and that they all make it through the first week without injuries. I want to see them all there when the road goes up.
  • Crozza
    Crozza Posts: 991
    hmmm, J-Rod. bonifications, some steep finishes, no ITT...

    maybe an e-w on the wee fella. his ride on the double-Alpe a couple of years ago was one of my personal highlights

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