BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

ballysmate

mrfpb wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Jez mon wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Since when has anyone taken the Dail Mail seriously? Or remembered what last week's sensationalist headline was for that matter. Although it was a good excuse for a minor spot of Godwins law related hysteria.

Stupid red top headlines aside, the decision will make this much more interesting and harder to call. I reckon May is a canny politician but as to whether her motives are to very subtly scupper the whole thing, who knows?

It's the most/second most read print newspaper in the UK. Its readers do take it seriously. Its online figures will obviously be skewed by people who go there for the shock value.

So do you think we are on the slippery slope to becoming like 1930s Germany? That's what one of the earlier post was trying make out :roll:

Well given the lack of anything from the government beyond stern words on the outbreak of racism since the vote, and May's adoption of a strict anti-immigration stance in her Brexit rhetoric, I think it extends beyond the front pages of newspapers.

Anti immigration? Surely you mean controlled immigration?
You seem to be making a connection between the government and racism which is as much a case of hysteria as some of the tabloid headlines that have been attracting criticism.

ballysmate

mamba80 wrote:

also, referendums are a bit of an anomaly in a representative democracy, Parliament really isnt there to carry out the will of the people, or we d never have got rid of capital punishment or slavery, we certainly would nt have gone to war against Hitler.
we have a GE, vote based on their manifestos etc and then they get on with it, if they mess up or we are fickle, kick them out 5 years later.

its also odd that ALL of the referendums the UK has ever had, have been enacted by Tory governments, dont they trust their own judgement?

Like the manifesto pledging to hold a referendum?

Stevo_666

Ben6899 wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Since when has anyone taken the Dail Mail seriously? Or remembered what last week's sensationalist headline was for that matter. Although it was a good excuse for a minor spot of Godwins law related hysteria.

Stupid red top headlines aside, the decision will make this much more interesting and harder to call. I reckon May is a canny politician but as to whether her motives are to very subtly scupper the whole thing, who knows?

It's unfair to call Godwin's Law. Anyone who went to school will recognise the Daily Mail headline as being of the same ilk as Nazi Party propaganda. You can't blame folk for pointing out the obvious.

Precisely my point - if they have been coming out with this sort of tosh for decades, clearly people don't take too much notice of it.

Stevo_666

mamba80 wrote:

and now a tory MP quits over Brexit.......

Careful what you wish for - given the levels of party support at present, I wonder what the Conservative majority would be if a snap GE was called?

bobmcstuff

Jez mon wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Since when has anyone taken the Dail Mail seriously? Or remembered what last week's sensationalist headline was for that matter. Although it was a good excuse for a minor spot of Godwins law related hysteria.

Stupid red top headlines aside, the decision will make this much more interesting and harder to call. I reckon May is a canny politician but as to whether her motives are to very subtly scupper the whole thing, who knows?

It's the most/second most read print newspaper in the UK. Its readers do take it seriously. Its online figures will obviously be skewed by people who go there for the shock value.

I took a BA flight with my boss last week and he picked up a Mail on the way in - said he didn't hold by the Sun (he's from near Liverpool so makes sense), I said I didn't hold by the Mail either, which seemed to surprise him... He seems to view the Mail as a broadsheet for people with short arms.

We don't talk politics in the office...

Stevo_666

Ballysmate wrote:

mamba80 wrote:

also, referendums are a bit of an anomaly in a representative democracy, Parliament really isnt there to carry out the will of the people, or we d never have got rid of capital punishment or slavery, we certainly would nt have gone to war against Hitler.
we have a GE, vote based on their manifestos etc and then they get on with it, if they mess up or we are fickle, kick them out 5 years later.

its also odd that ALL of the referendums the UK has ever had, have been enacted by Tory governments, dont they trust their own judgement?

Like the manifesto pledging to hold a referendum?

bompington

Mr Goo wrote:

Democracy? There is no democracy. We think we live in one, but this hasn't been the case since the 70s.

In what way is it not democratic? What would make it so? Why was it different in the 70s?

ballysmate

Pinno wrote:

For all the Mail's influence, they are not going to change democratic process. They just want to sell papers. Monday's headline will be some navel gazing and their audience will have forgotten about today.

I'm wondering if the ruling will be the beginnings of potential political moves to stop Brexit. I think (having read somewhere on here) that the majority of parliament are remainers...

Interesting times ahead, if a bit uncertain.

Saw Hillary Benn being interviewed yesterday after the judgement. He said that he would vote for A50 even though he had been a remainer. When asked how he would vote if the framework for our withdrawal was hard brexit, he wouldn't answer.
Liz Kendall was the same last night.
Portillo outlined a scenario wherby the government phrased the question on Brexit before Parliament as a vote of confidence. He foresaw Labour abstaining in order to avoid a GE and the Scotsnats voting against.
Motion carried and the government then cracks on with Brexit.

bompington

Stevo 666 wrote:

Jez mon wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Since when has anyone taken the Dail Mail seriously? Or remembered what last week's sensationalist headline was for that matter. Although it was a good excuse for a minor spot of Godwins law related hysteria.

Stupid red top headlines aside, the decision will make this much more interesting and harder to call. I reckon May is a canny politician but as to whether her motives are to very subtly scupper the whole thing, who knows?

It's the most/second most read print newspaper in the UK. Its readers do take it seriously. Its online figures will obviously be skewed by people who go there for the shock value.

So do you think we are on the slippery slope to becoming like 1930s Germany? That's what one of the earlier post was trying make out :roll:

On balance I think that it is highly unlikely that we will head very far down that route. However, in terms of the language being used and the emotions being stirred up, it's not that different already. The present fevered atmosphere can't really just continue: it will either have to clear up - and everything about British history and culture tells me that it will - or else it will start to ramp up to the point where some people make the jump from violent language (and let's be clear, it is violent language) to violent acts. You have so many people effectively saying that there is no point in democracy if it doesn't deliver exactly what they want (I particularly like this one), a lot of them move on to thinking about other means of getting what they want.

Ben6899

Stevo 666 wrote:

Ben6899 wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Since when has anyone taken the Dail Mail seriously? Or remembered what last week's sensationalist headline was for that matter. Although it was a good excuse for a minor spot of Godwins law related hysteria.

Stupid red top headlines aside, the decision will make this much more interesting and harder to call. I reckon May is a canny politician but as to whether her motives are to very subtly scupper the whole thing, who knows?

It's unfair to call Godwin's Law. Anyone who went to school will recognise the Daily Mail headline as being of the same ilk as Nazi Party propaganda. You can't blame folk for pointing out the obvious.

Precisely my point - if they have been coming out with this sort of tosh for decades, clearly people don't take too much notice of it.

You don't need me to tell you that people *do* take too much notice of it. See: Brexit

surrey_commuter

Ballysmate wrote:

Pinno wrote:

For all the Mail's influence, they are not going to change democratic process. They just want to sell papers. Monday's headline will be some navel gazing and their audience will have forgotten about today.

I'm wondering if the ruling will be the beginnings of potential political moves to stop Brexit. I think (having read somewhere on here) that the majority of parliament are remainers...

Interesting times ahead, if a bit uncertain.

Saw Hillary Benn being interviewed yesterday after the judgement. He said that he would vote for A50 even though he had been a remainer. When asked how he would vote if the framework for our withdrawal was hard brexit, he wouldn't answer.
Liz Kendall was the same last night.
Portillo outlined a scenario wherby the government phrased the question on Brexit before Parliament as a vote of confidence. He foresaw Labour abstaining in order to avoid a GE and the Scotsnats voting against.
Motion carried and the government then cracks on with Brexit.

I can not see Labour doing anything en-masse

mr_goo

So heartening to see that the banking industry, currency traders and speculators are benefiting (when don't they?) from yesterdays court decision. Capitalism! Don't you just love it.

bompington

Mr Goo wrote:

So heartening to see that the banking industry, currency traders and speculators are benefiting (when don't they?) from yesterdays court decision. Capitalism! Don't you just love it.

Shocking. They are Enemies Of The People and should be shot.

surrey_commuter

bompington wrote:

Mr Goo wrote:

So heartening to see that the banking industry, currency traders and speculators are benefiting (when don't they?) from yesterdays court decision. Capitalism! Don't you just love it.

Shocking. They are Enemies Of The People and should be shot.

what about the ones who speculated the wrong way and lost money - maybe we could give them a knighthood?

Ben6899

Mr Goo wrote:

So heartening to see that the banking industry, currency traders and speculators are benefiting (when don't they?) from yesterdays court decision. Capitalism! Don't you just love it.

There's nothing stopping you from speculating yourself.

bobmcstuff

Good for the Pound - back up to $1.25

Investor's thinking:

The problem for investors is working out how long to stay bullish in a climate of high political uncertainty.

“The permutations that could arise out of this sorry mess,” says Steven Barrow, Standard Bank’s FX strategist, include a successful government appeal against the ruling, Article 50 being voted down, a general election, a new referendum and the UK deciding not to leave the EU at all.

Warning sterling bulls not to get their hopes up too much, Mr Barrow says: “Confused? You soon will be.”

https://www.ft.com/content/16523fb8-a27 ... 51ce86813f

Goldman Sachs think the Pound will end the year at $1.20.

rick_chasey

bompington wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

The mail today

Scarily relevant comparison, Rick. (If your German's not up to it, it basically reads "betrayers of the people, chuck 'em out of the German community")

Anyone who knows even the tiniest bit of history of the 20th century's murderous totalitarianism will shudder at the the phrase "enemy of the people". Clue for the younger generation: it usually preceded getting shot.

I've always been a bit inclined to dismiss people who rant on about the Mail's fascist-supporting past, they usually seem just like one flavour of muck-raking tabloids among all the rest. But now I'm not so sure.

More than just the specifics of Brexit or Trump - I think these things are just symptoms - I am quite scunnered at the depths of bile and irrationality in politics just now, and genuinely worried at the possibility that it might spill over into real violence.

A potted history of the term "enemy of the people" on Wikipedia.


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enemy_of_the_people

Roman & Lenin.

rick_chasey

bobmcstuff wrote:

Good for the Pound - back up to $1.25

Investor's thinking:

The problem for investors is working out how long to stay bullish in a climate of high political uncertainty.

“The permutations that could arise out of this sorry mess,” says Steven Barrow, Standard Bank’s FX strategist, include a successful government appeal against the ruling, Article 50 being voted down, a general election, a new referendum and the UK deciding not to leave the EU at all.

Warning sterling bulls not to get their hopes up too much, Mr Barrow says: “Confused? You soon will be.”

https://www.ft.com/content/16523fb8-a27 ... 51ce86813f

Goldman Sachs think the Pound will end the year at $1.20.

Goldman analysts are famously wrong with their published predictions in fairness.

Though in this instance most analysts are saying $1.20 but that is on a Clinton victory assumption.

bobmcstuff

Rick Chasey wrote:

bobmcstuff wrote:

Good for the Pound - back up to $1.25

Investor's thinking:

The problem for investors is working out how long to stay bullish in a climate of high political uncertainty.

“The permutations that could arise out of this sorry mess,” says Steven Barrow, Standard Bank’s FX strategist, include a successful government appeal against the ruling, Article 50 being voted down, a general election, a new referendum and the UK deciding not to leave the EU at all.

Warning sterling bulls not to get their hopes up too much, Mr Barrow says: “Confused? You soon will be.”

https://www.ft.com/content/16523fb8-a27 ... 51ce86813f

Goldman Sachs think the Pound will end the year at $1.20.

Goldman analysts are famously wrong with their published predictions in fairness.

Though in this instance most analysts are saying $1.20 but that is on a Clinton victory assumption.

Someone else quoted there is saying $1.30 so yeah, wildly variable!

rick_chasey

So we have this vitriol.

We have fear of "migrants" from the Middle East and islamophobia is socially acceptable.

The single biggest political event in Britain is held with that backdrop on the euphemistic term of "controlling the borders" with posters of middle eastern migrants. Presumably that is meant euphemistically and not literally since I don't those voters would be happy with "controlling" 2million refugees coming in versus "uncontrolled" refugees of 50,000.

We have scaremongering stories of refugees and asylum seekers daily on the front of the most popular papers. They've been compared to rats and rapists.

Just like the discriminatory and violent fascists and communists we see violent rhetoric against the "elites". We have a polarisation of politics just as in the 30s after its financial crash of '29 with a liberal political class unable to steer through it if they have not already been hijacked by extremists.

Only this time the vitriol is against the elite and Muslims rather than the elite and Jews (though, depending on how euphemistic Mr Goo was being about "speculators" we'll have to see.)

Britain has a history of rational politics so it does not fear the dangers of the irrational since it has not experienced it.

This is all very irrational and we are heading in the direction of a dark and horrible place.

We need to ensure we steer away from the path. Fast.

Stevo_666

bobmcstuff wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

bobmcstuff wrote:

Good for the Pound - back up to $1.25

Investor's thinking:

The problem for investors is working out how long to stay bullish in a climate of high political uncertainty.

“The permutations that could arise out of this sorry mess,” says Steven Barrow, Standard Bank’s FX strategist, include a successful government appeal against the ruling, Article 50 being voted down, a general election, a new referendum and the UK deciding not to leave the EU at all.

Warning sterling bulls not to get their hopes up too much, Mr Barrow says: “Confused? You soon will be.”

https://www.ft.com/content/16523fb8-a27 ... 51ce86813f

Goldman Sachs think the Pound will end the year at $1.20.

Goldman analysts are famously wrong with their published predictions in fairness.

Though in this instance most analysts are saying $1.20 but that is on a Clinton victory assumption.

Someone else quoted there is saying $1.30 so yeah, wildly variable!

There's a wide spread of forecasts on the major currency pairs, quite often the banks have strongly differing views. We were looking at the Sterling/Euro forecasts this week and only 5 months from now the predicted rate varies between 1.05 and 1.18.

wallace_and_gromit

Rick Chasey wrote:

Goldman analysts are famously wrong with their published predictions in fairness.

Though in this instance most analysts are saying $1.20 but that is on a Clinton victory assumption.

I read some analysis once that highlighted if you bet the opposite way to Goldman's published recommendations than you'd make more money than following their recommendations.

kingstongraham

Rick Chasey wrote:

We need to ensure we steer away from the path. Fast.

Agreed. How?

Bobbinogs

KingstonGraham wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

We need to ensure we steer away from the path. Fast.

Agreed. How?

I thought we all agreed that the answer to the problem was to kick the bloody migrants out since they are to blame??

mr_goo

Ben6899 wrote:

Mr Goo wrote:

So heartening to see that the banking industry, currency traders and speculators are benefiting (when don't they?) from yesterdays court decision. Capitalism! Don't you just love it.

There's nothing stopping you from speculating yourself.

Having access to funds and the fact I am not corrupt or a crook significantly reduces my chances or most normal every day Joes from making lots of money.

rick_chasey

Moaning you're not good enough to earn a lot of money?

Ha.

Brexit won't help you there mate.

mr_goo

Rick Chasey wrote:

So we have this vitriol.

We have fear of "migrants" from the Middle East and islamophobia is socially acceptable.

The single biggest political event in Britain is held with that backdrop on the euphemistic term of "controlling the borders" with posters of middle eastern migrants. Presumably that is meant euphemistically and not literally since I don't those voters would be happy with "controlling" 2million refugees coming in versus "uncontrolled" refugees of 50,000.

We have scaremongering stories of refugees and asylum seekers daily on the front of the most popular papers. They've been compared to rats and rapists.

Just like the discriminatory and violent fascists and communists we see violent rhetoric against the "elites". We have a polarisation of politics just as in the 30s after its financial crash of '29 with a liberal political class unable to steer through it if they have not already been hijacked by extremists.

Only this time the vitriol is against the elite and Muslims rather than the elite and Jews (though, depending on how euphemistic Mr Goo was being about "speculators" we'll have to see.)

Britain has a history of rational politics so it does not fear the dangers of the irrational since it has not experienced it.

This is all very irrational and we are heading in the direction of a dark and horrible place.

We need to ensure we steer away from the path. Fast.

My comments had NO hidden meaning. Purely targeted at the banking sector and corps that make money by having a run on currencies or companies. I'm steering clear of any race or immigrant related dialogue.

Have read on here a couple of threads about Goldman Sachs. Weren't they one of the b45t4rd banks that f***ed up the global economy with their dodgy CDO trading? Still going strong I see and not one employee/trader/associate/director imprisoned for fraud or corruption.

rick_chasey

Goldman didn't create CDOs no.

Nor did they precipate bad lending to borrowers ill-equipped to pay back - Goldman don't hand out mortgages.

Goldman had a few exotic deals with some gov'ts that in the event of a crash were very profitable for them and expensive for states, but then the opposite was true for if the market went well.

JP were the biggest structured credit guys of the IB world, but they're a WASP bank so people mind less. Same with Merrills or MS. I wonder why Goldman gets picked out?

Goldman were no better, no worse than your typical Wall Street back.

rick_chasey

Curious to know how you screw the world by trading.

You know what trading is right? One person or company buying from another?

rick_chasey

Glad you don't deny your own islamophobia.

First step to recovery is to admit it.

We can help you see the humanity in people, you know.