BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
Comments
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@surrey_commuter
These are the rules for NL - https://www.government.nl/topics/foreign-nationals-working-in-the-netherlands/question-and-answer/what-permits-do-foreign-workers-need#:~:text=Foreign nationals wishing to work,combined residence and work permit.
To think when I moved over there they gave me a whopping great tax break...
I cannot fathom the opportunities we've denied ourselvesWe're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
- @ddraver0 -
Reminder, the UK chancellor needs the EUs agreement to apply his VAT changes in the UKrick_chasey said:New found sovereignty worth it yet?
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Is he right to equate productivity directly with GDP, or in true Cake Stop style did he not read the source he was quoting?briantrumpet said:"Lots of new trade agreements..."
...oh.0 -
New found sovereignty worth it yet?
You were all chat and arguments before 2020 and since then you say it’s too late, move on.Stevo_666 said:
What are you going to do about it if you think not?rick_chasey said:New found sovereignty worth it yet?
Do you take the same line in your performance reviews?0 -
I don't think the total number of working hours is likely to change significantly. Or are you saying that we might all be working 4% longer for the same output?surrey_commuter said:
Is he right to equate productivity directly with GDP, or in true Cake Stop style did he not read the source he was quoting?briantrumpet said:"Lots of new trade agreements..."
...oh.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
It's a measure of gdp per hour of labour, so also doesn't take into account any effect of any absolute reduction in immigration if that happens as a result of brexit. Could mean a larger impact on gdp than on productivity.0
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Productivity is much more interesting than GDP for the vast majority of cases.surrey_commuter said:
Is he right to equate productivity directly with GDP, or in true Cake Stop style did he not read the source he was quoting?briantrumpet said:"Lots of new trade agreements..."
...oh.0 -
The report also says that it is too difficult to tell at the moment, so they have no reason to change their original assumption. Nonetheless, they are surprised that imports from the EU have dropped more than exports to the EU.0
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What else could explain the difference between other G7 members?TheBigBean said:The report also says that it is too difficult to tell at the moment, so they have no reason to change their original assumption. Nonetheless, they are surprised that imports from the EU have dropped more than exports to the EU.
The logic of Brexit would explain this quite clearly so it is the obvious candidate.
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I honestly don't know.rjsterry said:
I don't think the total number of working hours is likely to change significantly. Or are you saying that we might all be working 4% longer for the same output?surrey_commuter said:
Is he right to equate productivity directly with GDP, or in true Cake Stop style did he not read the source he was quoting?briantrumpet said:"Lots of new trade agreements..."
...oh.
It does not seem right that you can conflate the two0 -
These all seem logical explanations:TheBigBean said:The report also says that it is too difficult to tell at the moment, so they have no reason to change their original assumption. Nonetheless, they are surprised that imports from the EU have dropped more than exports to the EU.
The seemingly paradoxical weakness in UK imports from the EU relative to exports to the EU since the end of the transition period is likely the result of a combination of factors. This could partly relate to rising prices of energy imports, which are largely sourced from outside the EU.
Some of the apparent substitution between EU and non-EU imports might also reflect changes in reporting trade flows or goods that always originated outside the EU no longer passing through the EU on their way to the UK.
Brexit-related effects are likely to include the fact that the UK is a relatively small market for individual EU exporters, so it may not be worth the cost of additional paperwork to continue to export to the UK.
The second one of these may cause companies to require duplication of effort across Europe as a whole (or in some cases will have zero actual effect).0 -
I think it is fair, possibly generous.surrey_commuter said:
I honestly don't know.rjsterry said:
I don't think the total number of working hours is likely to change significantly. Or are you saying that we might all be working 4% longer for the same output?surrey_commuter said:
Is he right to equate productivity directly with GDP, or in true Cake Stop style did he not read the source he was quoting?briantrumpet said:"Lots of new trade agreements..."
...oh.
It does not seem right that you can conflate the two
If Brexit has an effect on productivity, but no effect on size of workforce, or number of hours worked per person then there will be a directly proportional change in GDP resulting from Brexit.0 -
The second one is the Rotterdam effect. This could mean that nothing has really changed.kingstongraham said:
These all seem logical explanations:TheBigBean said:The report also says that it is too difficult to tell at the moment, so they have no reason to change their original assumption. Nonetheless, they are surprised that imports from the EU have dropped more than exports to the EU.
The seemingly paradoxical weakness in UK imports from the EU relative to exports to the EU since the end of the transition period is likely the result of a combination of factors. This could partly relate to rising prices of energy imports, which are largely sourced from outside the EU.
Some of the apparent substitution between EU and non-EU imports might also reflect changes in reporting trade flows or goods that always originated outside the EU no longer passing through the EU on their way to the UK.
Brexit-related effects are likely to include the fact that the UK is a relatively small market for individual EU exporters, so it may not be worth the cost of additional paperwork to continue to export to the UK.
The second one of these may cause companies to require duplication of effort across Europe as a whole (or in some cases will have zero actual effect).0 -
In some cases, yes. In others it will be that a hub in Europe is no longer useable for importing from outside the EU and distributing to EU and UK, and effort is required.TheBigBean said:
The second one is the Rotterdam effect. This could mean that nothing has really changed.kingstongraham said:
These all seem logical explanations:TheBigBean said:The report also says that it is too difficult to tell at the moment, so they have no reason to change their original assumption. Nonetheless, they are surprised that imports from the EU have dropped more than exports to the EU.
The seemingly paradoxical weakness in UK imports from the EU relative to exports to the EU since the end of the transition period is likely the result of a combination of factors. This could partly relate to rising prices of energy imports, which are largely sourced from outside the EU.
Some of the apparent substitution between EU and non-EU imports might also reflect changes in reporting trade flows or goods that always originated outside the EU no longer passing through the EU on their way to the UK.
Brexit-related effects are likely to include the fact that the UK is a relatively small market for individual EU exporters, so it may not be worth the cost of additional paperwork to continue to export to the UK.
The second one of these may cause companies to require duplication of effort across Europe as a whole (or in some cases will have zero actual effect).0 -
What are you going to do about it if you think nrick_chasey said:New found sovereignty worth it yet?
ATQ, as usual...rick_chasey said:New found sovereignty worth it yet?
You were all chat and arguments before 2020 and since then you say it’s too late, move on.Stevo_666 said:
What are you going to do about it if you think not?rick_chasey said:New found sovereignty worth it yet?
Do you take the same line in your performance reviews?"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Can I have a go? Highlight where the lying bastards lied about it, and try to get them voted out so they can't do any more damage.0
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This is what I was driving at.kingstongraham said:
I think it is fair, possibly generous.surrey_commuter said:
I honestly don't know.rjsterry said:
I don't think the total number of working hours is likely to change significantly. Or are you saying that we might all be working 4% longer for the same output?surrey_commuter said:
Is he right to equate productivity directly with GDP, or in true Cake Stop style did he not read the source he was quoting?briantrumpet said:"Lots of new trade agreements..."
...oh.
It does not seem right that you can conflate the two
If Brexit has an effect on productivity, but no effect on size of workforce, or number of hours worked per person then there will be a directly proportional change in GDP resulting from Brexit.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
I suppose its OK, given that Rick is trying to avoid answering. Although his delegate has already had a go.kingstongraham said:Can I have a go? Highlight where the lying bastards lied about it, and try to get them voted out so they can't do any more damage.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
(Can you explain the Rotterdam Effect? Sounds cool!)TheBigBean said:
The second one is the Rotterdam effect. This could mean that nothing has really changed.kingstongraham said:
These all seem logical explanations:TheBigBean said:The report also says that it is too difficult to tell at the moment, so they have no reason to change their original assumption. Nonetheless, they are surprised that imports from the EU have dropped more than exports to the EU.
The seemingly paradoxical weakness in UK imports from the EU relative to exports to the EU since the end of the transition period is likely the result of a combination of factors. This could partly relate to rising prices of energy imports, which are largely sourced from outside the EU.
Some of the apparent substitution between EU and non-EU imports might also reflect changes in reporting trade flows or goods that always originated outside the EU no longer passing through the EU on their way to the UK.
Brexit-related effects are likely to include the fact that the UK is a relatively small market for individual EU exporters, so it may not be worth the cost of additional paperwork to continue to export to the UK.
The second one of these may cause companies to require duplication of effort across Europe as a whole (or in some cases will have zero actual effect).We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
- @ddraver0 -
How about you? What are you going to do if the sovereignty turns out not to be worth it for you?Stevo_666 said:
I suppose its OK, given that Rick is trying to avoid answering. Although his delegate has already had a go.kingstongraham said:Can I have a go? Highlight where the lying bastards lied about it, and try to get them voted out so they can't do any more damage.
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I mean this is a public forum, so literally anyone can answer what they like.Stevo_666 said:
I suppose its OK, given that Rick is trying to avoid answering. Although his delegate has already had a go.kingstongraham said:Can I have a go? Highlight where the lying bastards lied about it, and try to get them voted out so they can't do any more damage.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Should have added a smiley. Ironically one person who hasn't answered is the person the question was addressed to. Maybe have a word with him?rjsterry said:
I mean this is a public forum, so literally anyone can answer what they like.Stevo_666 said:
I suppose its OK, given that Rick is trying to avoid answering. Although his delegate has already had a go.kingstongraham said:Can I have a go? Highlight where the lying bastards lied about it, and try to get them voted out so they can't do any more damage.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
I'm not really assessing it, I have plenty of other things to do now Brexit is in the past.kingstongraham said:
How about you? What are you going to do if the sovereignty turns out not to be worth it for you?Stevo_666 said:
I suppose its OK, given that Rick is trying to avoid answering. Although his delegate has already had a go.kingstongraham said:Can I have a go? Highlight where the lying bastards lied about it, and try to get them voted out so they can't do any more damage.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
https://www.economicsonline.co.uk/global_economics/the_rotterdam_effect.html/ddraver said:
(Can you explain the Rotterdam Effect? Sounds cool!)TheBigBean said:
The second one is the Rotterdam effect. This could mean that nothing has really changed.kingstongraham said:
These all seem logical explanations:TheBigBean said:The report also says that it is too difficult to tell at the moment, so they have no reason to change their original assumption. Nonetheless, they are surprised that imports from the EU have dropped more than exports to the EU.
The seemingly paradoxical weakness in UK imports from the EU relative to exports to the EU since the end of the transition period is likely the result of a combination of factors. This could partly relate to rising prices of energy imports, which are largely sourced from outside the EU.
Some of the apparent substitution between EU and non-EU imports might also reflect changes in reporting trade flows or goods that always originated outside the EU no longer passing through the EU on their way to the UK.
Brexit-related effects are likely to include the fact that the UK is a relatively small market for individual EU exporters, so it may not be worth the cost of additional paperwork to continue to export to the UK.
The second one of these may cause companies to require duplication of effort across Europe as a whole (or in some cases will have zero actual effect).While not inflating total trade flows, the Rotterdam effect will distort the breakdown between one country’s trade with the EU and with non-EU countries. Interest in the Rotterdam effect has increased recently as a result of the Brexit debate about the relative importance to the UK of trade with the EU and non-EU countries. As an illustration, if an African country (X) exports corn oil to the UK, it is likely that it will pass through Rotterdam, on its way to the UK. If this is recorded as a flow from country X to the EU, and then from the EU to the UK, it will have the effect of over-valuing EU trade with the UK, and undervaluing non-EU trade with the UK. While this distortionary effect would arise from trade through any EU port, Rotterdam is a particularly significant port, especially in terms of trade in oil and other commodities. The UK (and other oil exporters) ship large quantities of crude oil to the Netherlands to take advantage of its oil refining capacity, but the refined oil ends up in a variety of countries, many of which are not in the EU.The UK statistical authorities have attempted to estimate the significance of the distortion caused by the Rotterdam effect. It has analysed the effect by making two assumptions. The first extreme assumption, which can be applied to the UK, is that all exports to the Netherlands are re-exported to non-EU countries and all imports from the Netherlands have their origin outside the EU. If this is the case, then the HMRC estimates that the actual value of UK trade with the EU is 8% lower than official figures suggest (and UK trade with the non-EU world is 8% more than is currently officially stated.) If true, it tends to strengthen the argument that the EU is less significant to the UK than officially recognised. However, it is clear that a proportion of UK trade is directly with the Netherlands. Hence, the HMRCs second assumption is that only 50% of UK trade with the Netherlands is related to non-EU countries. Although they made no claim for overall effect of this, we could argue that this means that the 8% distortion could be halved.0 -
Cool indeed. Not necessarily what some people want to hear though.TheBigBean said:
https://www.economicsonline.co.uk/global_economics/the_rotterdam_effect.html/ddraver said:
(Can you explain the Rotterdam Effect? Sounds cool!)TheBigBean said:
The second one is the Rotterdam effect. This could mean that nothing has really changed.kingstongraham said:
These all seem logical explanations:TheBigBean said:The report also says that it is too difficult to tell at the moment, so they have no reason to change their original assumption. Nonetheless, they are surprised that imports from the EU have dropped more than exports to the EU.
The seemingly paradoxical weakness in UK imports from the EU relative to exports to the EU since the end of the transition period is likely the result of a combination of factors. This could partly relate to rising prices of energy imports, which are largely sourced from outside the EU.
Some of the apparent substitution between EU and non-EU imports might also reflect changes in reporting trade flows or goods that always originated outside the EU no longer passing through the EU on their way to the UK.
Brexit-related effects are likely to include the fact that the UK is a relatively small market for individual EU exporters, so it may not be worth the cost of additional paperwork to continue to export to the UK.
The second one of these may cause companies to require duplication of effort across Europe as a whole (or in some cases will have zero actual effect).While not inflating total trade flows, the Rotterdam effect will distort the breakdown between one country’s trade with the EU and with non-EU countries. Interest in the Rotterdam effect has increased recently as a result of the Brexit debate about the relative importance to the UK of trade with the EU and non-EU countries. As an illustration, if an African country (X) exports corn oil to the UK, it is likely that it will pass through Rotterdam, on its way to the UK. If this is recorded as a flow from country X to the EU, and then from the EU to the UK, it will have the effect of over-valuing EU trade with the UK, and undervaluing non-EU trade with the UK. While this distortionary effect would arise from trade through any EU port, Rotterdam is a particularly significant port, especially in terms of trade in oil and other commodities. The UK (and other oil exporters) ship large quantities of crude oil to the Netherlands to take advantage of its oil refining capacity, but the refined oil ends up in a variety of countries, many of which are not in the EU.The UK statistical authorities have attempted to estimate the significance of the distortion caused by the Rotterdam effect. It has analysed the effect by making two assumptions. The first extreme assumption, which can be applied to the UK, is that all exports to the Netherlands are re-exported to non-EU countries and all imports from the Netherlands have their origin outside the EU. If this is the case, then the HMRC estimates that the actual value of UK trade with the EU is 8% lower than official figures suggest (and UK trade with the non-EU world is 8% more than is currently officially stated.) If true, it tends to strengthen the argument that the EU is less significant to the UK than officially recognised. However, it is clear that a proportion of UK trade is directly with the Netherlands. Hence, the HMRCs second assumption is that only 50% of UK trade with the Netherlands is related to non-EU countries. Although they made no claim for overall effect of this, we could argue that this means that the 8% distortion could be halved."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Because it means the increase in trade from non-EU countries post Brexit could be an illusion?Stevo_666 said:
Cool indeed. Not necessarily what some people want to hear though.TheBigBean said:
https://www.economicsonline.co.uk/global_economics/the_rotterdam_effect.html/ddraver said:
(Can you explain the Rotterdam Effect? Sounds cool!)TheBigBean said:
The second one is the Rotterdam effect. This could mean that nothing has really changed.kingstongraham said:
These all seem logical explanations:TheBigBean said:The report also says that it is too difficult to tell at the moment, so they have no reason to change their original assumption. Nonetheless, they are surprised that imports from the EU have dropped more than exports to the EU.
The seemingly paradoxical weakness in UK imports from the EU relative to exports to the EU since the end of the transition period is likely the result of a combination of factors. This could partly relate to rising prices of energy imports, which are largely sourced from outside the EU.
Some of the apparent substitution between EU and non-EU imports might also reflect changes in reporting trade flows or goods that always originated outside the EU no longer passing through the EU on their way to the UK.
Brexit-related effects are likely to include the fact that the UK is a relatively small market for individual EU exporters, so it may not be worth the cost of additional paperwork to continue to export to the UK.
The second one of these may cause companies to require duplication of effort across Europe as a whole (or in some cases will have zero actual effect).While not inflating total trade flows, the Rotterdam effect will distort the breakdown between one country’s trade with the EU and with non-EU countries. Interest in the Rotterdam effect has increased recently as a result of the Brexit debate about the relative importance to the UK of trade with the EU and non-EU countries. As an illustration, if an African country (X) exports corn oil to the UK, it is likely that it will pass through Rotterdam, on its way to the UK. If this is recorded as a flow from country X to the EU, and then from the EU to the UK, it will have the effect of over-valuing EU trade with the UK, and undervaluing non-EU trade with the UK. While this distortionary effect would arise from trade through any EU port, Rotterdam is a particularly significant port, especially in terms of trade in oil and other commodities. The UK (and other oil exporters) ship large quantities of crude oil to the Netherlands to take advantage of its oil refining capacity, but the refined oil ends up in a variety of countries, many of which are not in the EU.The UK statistical authorities have attempted to estimate the significance of the distortion caused by the Rotterdam effect. It has analysed the effect by making two assumptions. The first extreme assumption, which can be applied to the UK, is that all exports to the Netherlands are re-exported to non-EU countries and all imports from the Netherlands have their origin outside the EU. If this is the case, then the HMRC estimates that the actual value of UK trade with the EU is 8% lower than official figures suggest (and UK trade with the non-EU world is 8% more than is currently officially stated.) If true, it tends to strengthen the argument that the EU is less significant to the UK than officially recognised. However, it is clear that a proportion of UK trade is directly with the Netherlands. Hence, the HMRCs second assumption is that only 50% of UK trade with the Netherlands is related to non-EU countries. Although they made no claim for overall effect of this, we could argue that this means that the 8% distortion could be halved.0 -
😆Stevo_666 said:
I'm not really assessing it, I have plenty of other things to do now Brexit is in the past.kingstongraham said:
How about you? What are you going to do if the sovereignty turns out not to be worth it for you?Stevo_666 said:
I suppose its OK, given that Rick is trying to avoid answering. Although his delegate has already had a go.kingstongraham said:Can I have a go? Highlight where the lying bastards lied about it, and try to get them voted out so they can't do any more damage.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Sorry, it slipped my mind that you aren't active on the Brexit thread anymore.Stevo_666 said:
I'm not really assessing it, I have plenty of other things to do now Brexit is in the past.kingstongraham said:
How about you? What are you going to do if the sovereignty turns out not to be worth it for you?Stevo_666 said:
I suppose its OK, given that Rick is trying to avoid answering. Although his delegate has already had a go.kingstongraham said:Can I have a go? Highlight where the lying bastards lied about it, and try to get them voted out so they can't do any more damage.
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