BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
Comments
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Given the Nissan news, I do wonder whether May has told them that she's going to speak about controlling immigration in public but actually prioritise single market access when she negotiates with the EU...0
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finchy wrote:Given the Nissan news, I do wonder whether May has told them that she's going to speak about controlling immigration in public but actually prioritise single market access when she negotiates with the EU...
We have to hope that May is a genius with a master plan.0 -
Like the QE that is propping up the EU economies (as mentioned above)?finchy wrote:By the way, just one for those of you suggesting that our economy's outperforming the rest of the G7/EU - the UK has consistently been running a much higher deficit than most other advanced economies since 2008. Take that support away, and we might be showing growth figures similar to, or lower than, elsewhere.
Also not sure how running a deficit is 'support'. Its a function of exports less imports."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
If the UK economy was doing so well to begin with I doubt you'd have had as many brexiters doing the nihilistic out vote.
UK has a genuine productivity problem and that's what Miliband etc were banging on about with their "standard of living" chat.
If productivity doesn't rise, people don't feel the GDP growth.
Arguably productivity should be THE most important stat for that reason.
That hasn't changed.0 -
Stevo 666 wrote:
Like the QE that is propping up the EU economies (as mentioned above)?finchy wrote:By the way, just one for those of you suggesting that our economy's outperforming the rest of the G7/EU - the UK has consistently been running a much higher deficit than most other advanced economies since 2008. Take that support away, and we might be showing growth figures similar to, or lower than, elsewhere.
Also not sure how running a deficit is 'support'. Its a function of exports less imports.
I imagine he means govt spending minus revenues0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:If the UK economy was doing so well to begin with I doubt you'd have had as many brexiters doing the nihilistic out vote.
UK has a genuine productivity problem and that's what Miliband etc were banging on about with their "standard of living" chat.
If productivity doesn't rise, people don't feel the GDP growth.
Arguably productivity should be THE most important stat for that reason.
That hasn't changed.
Rick - what could Remainers do to help the LibDems win the bye election? Can we channel cash directly to the constituency or do we need to bang on doors?0 -
Stevo 666 wrote:
Like the QE that is propping up the EU economies (as mentioned above)?finchy wrote:By the way, just one for those of you suggesting that our economy's outperforming the rest of the G7/EU - the UK has consistently been running a much higher deficit than most other advanced economies since 2008. Take that support away, and we might be showing growth figures similar to, or lower than, elsewhere.
Also not sure how running a deficit is 'support'. Its a function of exports less imports.
Check the link. It's about budget deficit, not trade deficit.
Also, QE is being used to prop up the UK economy again in the wake of the Brexit vote. At the moment, the whole developed world's economy still feels pretty f**ked up. UK, USA, China, EU, Japan... all seem to be due a fairly hard landing some time soon. GDP growth doesn't mean much when it's based entirely on accumulating ever larger amounts of debt during what is meant to be a growth period.0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:If the UK economy was doing so well to begin with I doubt you'd have had as many brexiters doing the nihilistic out vote.
UK has a genuine productivity problem and that's what Miliband etc were banging on about with their "standard of living" chat.
If productivity doesn't rise, people don't feel the GDP growth.
Arguably productivity should be THE most important stat for that reason.
That hasn't changed.
How is this measured nationally? I've some reading time over the weekend and would like to find out more.0 -
Jez mon wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:
I thought nobody paid any attention to what the Express or Mail say?Surrey Commuter wrote:Even the Express now says that Leave voters are now regretting their decision
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/ ... ouGov-poll
I have started on the beers, but that looks like it is saying exactly the opposite of what you posted?
My reading of it wax that it seems to suggest that there's very little that would convince the brexit crowd that they made the wrong choice...
"Only three per cent would ditch their backing for Brexit if Scotland left the UK, the price of a weekly grocery shop went up by 10 per cent, or the EU imposed tariffs on British exports."
I just don't get the mentality where people would take money out of their own pockets just to keep them Poles out. It's like that other poll which showed 35% of Brexiters would sacrifice 5% of their incomes to reduce immigration to 0 - the only possible explanation is xenophobia. It's very disappointing to see just how widespread this attitude is.0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:If the UK economy was doing so well to begin with I doubt you'd have had as many brexiters doing the nihilistic out vote.
UK has a genuine productivity problem and that's what Miliband etc were banging on about with their "standard of living" chat.
If productivity doesn't rise, people don't feel the GDP growth.
Arguably productivity should be THE most important stat for that reason.
That hasn't changed.
Rick - what could Remainers do to help the LibDems win the bye election? Can we channel cash directly to the constituency or do we need to bang on doors?
Try and get the Conservatives to run a candidate.
The Lib Dems need to make sure that it is clear that Olney is as anti Heathrow expansion as Goldsmith, and how pro leave Goldsmith is. He has made it clear he will not reflect his constituents' views in parliament. Probably means door knocking - I don't think there is a shortage of money in the area...0 -
bobmcstuff wrote:Jez mon wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:
I thought nobody paid any attention to what the Express or Mail say?Surrey Commuter wrote:Even the Express now says that Leave voters are now regretting their decision
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/ ... ouGov-poll
I have started on the beers, but that looks like it is saying exactly the opposite of what you posted?
My reading of it wax that it seems to suggest that there's very little that would convince the brexit crowd that they made the wrong choice...
"Only three per cent would ditch their backing for Brexit if Scotland left the UK, the price of a weekly grocery shop went up by 10 per cent, or the EU imposed tariffs on British exports."
I just don't get the mentality where people would take money out of their own pockets just to keep them Poles out. It's like that other poll which showed 35% of Brexiters would sacrifice 5% of their incomes to reduce immigration to 0 - the only possible explanation is xenophobia. It's very disappointing to see just how widespread this attitude is.
It's just bizarre...You live and learn. At any rate, you live0 -
finchy wrote:verylonglegs wrote:I'm confused as to how Coopster has spent weeks pre and post referendum telling us we have a superb negociating position and plenty of leverage on the EU and then appears to celebrate the UK now likely offering sweeteners to companies to keep their factories here...surely an indication that our position isn't that strong at all. It can't be had both ways.
I think that Coopster may be an expert at doublethink. Just as he is also good at sneering at experts when they get a prediction wrong (such as how quickly the economy will be affected), but says nothing when they get it right (devaluation of sterling, reduced business investment, more QE, higher government deficit).
I will sneer at 'experts' whose predictions are wrong and whose incorrect predictions create unnecessary negativity and uncertainty in the UK economy. Why should I be happy to accept these influential 'experts' incorrectly talking down my countries economy?
If these 'independent experts' had been narrowly incorrect I could accept that, however they have allowed their 'independence' to be politicised and now have egg on their faces by being proved wrong. The fact they are hugely influential institutions just makes the whole lot stink more!
Carney and the BoE are perfect examples of what I am saying and I said so at the time. His and the BoE's post vote actions were IMO premature. This is becoming more apparent but had to be done to save the face and egos of Carney & BoE.
The fact so many supposedly intelligent people also fell for this politicised bulls**t must be an embarrassment to them and I'm sure is a contribution to the anger they still hold for the vote. I know I would be angry at being misled by those whom I have trusted to be telling the truth!0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:If the UK economy was doing so well to begin with I doubt you'd have had as many brexiters doing the nihilistic out vote.
UK has a genuine productivity problem and that's what Miliband etc were banging on about with their "standard of living" chat.
If productivity doesn't rise, people don't feel the GDP growth.
Arguably productivity should be THE most important stat for that reason.
That hasn't changed.
When you have a near unlimited supply of low wage employees, business has no incentive to invest in productivity improvements. This has been the case for at least the last 10 years. When the 'unlimited supply of low wage employees' tap is turned off, business will very quickly invest in productivity improvements and training and this will feed through to productivity gains.0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:narbs wrote:I see Peter Lilley is back to his idiotic best, telling the European Scrutiny committee yesterday that everything will be fine because Irish and Indian independence went smoothly.
Not sure which history books you've been reading Pete luv, but I'd put them down now.
His presence on that Committee tells you all you need to know about the quality of our elected representatives.
Now joined by Dominic Raab (ha!) and Michael Gove (no, stop it!)0 -
Coopster the 1st wrote:finchy wrote:verylonglegs wrote:I'm confused as to how Coopster has spent weeks pre and post referendum telling us we have a superb negociating position and plenty of leverage on the EU and then appears to celebrate the UK now likely offering sweeteners to companies to keep their factories here...surely an indication that our position isn't that strong at all. It can't be had both ways.
I think that Coopster may be an expert at doublethink. Just as he is also good at sneering at experts when they get a prediction wrong (such as how quickly the economy will be affected), but says nothing when they get it right (devaluation of sterling, reduced business investment, more QE, higher government deficit).
I will sneer at 'experts' whose predictions are wrong and whose incorrect predictions create unnecessary negativity and uncertainty in the UK economy. Why should I be happy to accept these influential 'experts' incorrectly talking down my countries economy?
If these 'independent experts' had been narrowly incorrect I could accept that, however they have allowed their 'independence' to be politicised and now have egg on their faces by being proved wrong. The fact they are hugely influential institutions just makes the whole lot stink more!
Carney and the BoE are perfect examples of what I am saying and I said so at the time. His and the BoE's post vote actions were IMO premature. This is becoming more apparent but had to be done to save the face and egos of Carney & BoE.
The fact so many supposedly intelligent people also fell for this politicised bulls**t must be an embarrassment to them and I'm sure is a contribution to the anger they still hold for the vote. I know I would be angry at being misled by those whom I have trusted to be telling the truth!
Why, all of a sudden,do you care about the economy?
Which predictions did they get wrong?
Other than you and Jacob Rees Mogg who else thinks their post vote actions were wrong? Initially he was accused of sabotage by not doing enough.
It is a very complex subject and I would suggest that your continued lashing out at experts merely proves how much you don't know that you don't know.0 -
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More bad news for Joel's cats: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-377968360
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Michael Gove is still anti-expert in his Times column today.Week after week the public reject the view of the experts and vote the right way. They rally behind Ed.
Yes, he's decided to tackle the issue of Strictly this week.0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:If you don't believe in experts, who do you believe?
It's not experts per se that should be disbelieved. It's grandstanding experts making extreme predictions with no attempts at balance that are the problem.
For example, the "experts" who predicted immediate doom and gloom following a leave vote are frantically back-pedalling blaming Cameron for not immediately triggering Article 50 and highlighting that we haven't actually left the EU etc. These jokers should be ignored, preferably after a good horse-whipping. Pass granted to those who were clearly nobbled by political masters.
The experts who presented a more balance view, highlighting that there were good aspects to leaving as well as bad, with more bad on balance, with range of potential outcomes possible, with adverse effects on things like economic activity and employment taking time to emerge are the sort of experts who should be listened to. The problem is that such sober analysis was drowned out by campaign hysteria and such experts are now lumped in with the "need a good horse-whipping" brigade by the vocal leave faction.
Moral of the story: If you (the Royal "you" not you specifically!) make extreme predictions that don't come true, don't be surprised if people who disagreed with you think you are a moron.0 -
Coopster the 1st wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:If the UK economy was doing so well to begin with I doubt you'd have had as many brexiters doing the nihilistic out vote.
UK has a genuine productivity problem and that's what Miliband etc were banging on about with their "standard of living" chat.
If productivity doesn't rise, people don't feel the GDP growth.
Arguably productivity should be THE most important stat for that reason.
That hasn't changed.
When you have a near unlimited supply of low wage employees, business has no incentive to invest in productivity improvements. This has been the case for at least the last 10 years. When the 'unlimited supply of low wage employees' tap is turned off, business will very quickly invest in productivity improvements and training and this will feed through to productivity gains.
If that's the case then why would other EU countries have higher productivity than the UK?You live and learn. At any rate, you live0 -
Wallace and Gromit wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:If you don't believe in experts, who do you believe?
It's not experts per se that should be disbelieved. It's grandstanding experts making extreme predictions with no attempts at balance that are the problem.
For example, the "experts" who predicted immediate doom and gloom following a leave vote are frantically back-pedalling blaming Cameron for not immediately triggering Article 50 and highlighting that we haven't actually left the EU etc. These jokers should be ignored, preferably after a good horse-whipping. Pass granted to those who were clearly nobbled by political masters.
The experts who presented a more balance view, highlighting that there were good aspects to leaving as well as bad, with more bad on balance, with range of potential outcomes possible, with adverse effects on things like economic activity and employment taking time to emerge are the sort of experts who should be listened to. The problem is that such sober analysis was drowned out by campaign hysteria and such experts are now lumped in with the "need a good horse-whipping" brigade by the vocal leave faction.
Moral of the story: If you (the Royal "you" not you specifically!) make extreme predictions that don't come true, don't be surprised if people who disagreed with you think you are a moron.
What did Carney say before the vote that he wouldn't stand by today, do you think?0 -
Coopster the 1st wrote:finchy wrote:verylonglegs wrote:I'm confused as to how Coopster has spent weeks pre and post referendum telling us we have a superb negociating position and plenty of leverage on the EU and then appears to celebrate the UK now likely offering sweeteners to companies to keep their factories here...surely an indication that our position isn't that strong at all. It can't be had both ways.
I think that Coopster may be an expert at doublethink. Just as he is also good at sneering at experts when they get a prediction wrong (such as how quickly the economy will be affected), but says nothing when they get it right (devaluation of sterling, reduced business investment, more QE, higher government deficit).
I will sneer at 'experts' whose predictions are wrong and whose incorrect predictions create unnecessary negativity and uncertainty in the UK economy. Why should I be happy to accept these influential 'experts' incorrectly talking down my countries economy?
If these 'independent experts' had been narrowly incorrect I could accept that, however they have allowed their 'independence' to be politicised and now have egg on their faces by being proved wrong. The fact they are hugely influential institutions just makes the whole lot stink more!
Carney and the BoE are perfect examples of what I am saying and I said so at the time. His and the BoE's post vote actions were IMO premature. This is becoming more apparent but had to be done to save the face and egos of Carney & BoE.
The fact so many supposedly intelligent people also fell for this politicised bulls**t must be an embarrassment to them and I'm sure is a contribution to the anger they still hold for the vote. I know I would be angry at being misled by those whom I have trusted to be telling the truth!
So do you sneer at experts who predicted that the economic problems would be drawn out instead of immediate? Look at the facts - the most extreme post-vote scenarios have not yet come true, but we have had a massive fall in sterling, the government is once again resorting to QE to the tune of £60 billion, business investment is down, inflation will rise, so will the government deficit etc.
Apart from "things aren't as bad as the most extreme predictions", can you show me one positive to have arisen so far?0 -
KingstonGraham wrote:What did Carney say before the vote that he wouldn't stand by today, do you think?
I'm guessing his prediction of low growth in Q3 is looking a bit pessimistic now.
To be fair to Carney, his naturally moderate and sober style got rather "lost in translation" when quoted by the more excitable members of the remain campaign. I'm still sure he was lent on by Osborne though.0 -
verylonglegs wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:If the UK economy was doing so well to begin with I doubt you'd have had as many brexiters doing the nihilistic out vote.
UK has a genuine productivity problem and that's what Miliband etc were banging on about with their "standard of living" chat.
If productivity doesn't rise, people don't feel the GDP growth.
Arguably productivity should be THE most important stat for that reason.
That hasn't changed.
How is this measured nationally? I've some reading time over the weekend and would like to find out more.
In very simple terms you divide GDP by total population. This allows you to compare relative wealth of countries. So China has a bigger economy than us but far more people. Sticking with China it was a rural economy, by moving to manufacturing they upped productivity (the same person generates more value). Typically the next move is a switch to a knowledge economy, Singapore is a good example of this.
You could do a lot worse than searching on http://www.economist.com as they are effectively curating it for you.0 -
Jez mon wrote:Coopster the 1st wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:If the UK economy was doing so well to begin with I doubt you'd have had as many brexiters doing the nihilistic out vote.
UK has a genuine productivity problem and that's what Miliband etc were banging on about with their "standard of living" chat.
If productivity doesn't rise, people don't feel the GDP growth.
Arguably productivity should be THE most important stat for that reason.
That hasn't changed.
When you have a near unlimited supply of low wage employees, business has no incentive to invest in productivity improvements. This has been the case for at least the last 10 years. When the 'unlimited supply of low wage employees' tap is turned off, business will very quickly invest in productivity improvements and training and this will feed through to productivity gains.
If that's the case then why would other EU countries have higher productivity than the UK?
:shock:0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:If the UK economy was doing so well to begin with I doubt you'd have had as many brexiters doing the nihilistic out vote.
UK has a genuine productivity problem and that's what Miliband etc were banging on about with their "standard of living" chat.
If productivity doesn't rise, people don't feel the GDP growth.
Arguably productivity should be THE most important stat for that reason.
That hasn't changed.
Rick - what could Remainers do to help the LibDems win the bye election? Can we channel cash directly to the constituency or do we need to bang on doors?
Plenty of people around to bangs on doors. Richmond is a nice place to walk around and mainly middle class.
Lib Dems are always short of money.0 -
Wallace and Gromit wrote:KingstonGraham wrote:What did Carney say before the vote that he wouldn't stand by today, do you think?
I'm guessing his prediction of low growth in Q3 is looking a bit pessimistic now.
To be fair to Carney, his naturally moderate and sober style got rather "lost in translation" when quoted by the more excitable members of the remain campaign. I'm still sure he was lent on by Osborne though.
Ok - let's look at Carney's comments on the MPC meeting in May and then judge him
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36273448
" costs of leaving could possibly include a technical recession"
"May cause sterling and growth to fall and inflation to rise"
"Bank had not compiled official forecast on likelihood of technical recession"
Osborne applying his spin to this;
"Bank faces a trade off between stabilising inflation or growth and employment"
"Families would be poorer though higher inflation or the economy would be weaker with a hit to Jons and livelihoods"
What did we do before Google?0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:Ok - let's look at Carney's comments on the MPC meeting in May and then judge him
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36273448
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... ared-as-i/
I can't find a quote for a specific numerical prediction that pre-dates the referendum, but this covers the BoE's predictions after the result was known. Shortly after the referendum vote, the BoE was forecasting 0.1% growth for Q3. As recently as early September it had upgraded this to 0.3% and yesterday's out-turn was 0.5%.
So there's definitely some inherent undue pessimism in the BoE mindset. That's no bad thing for a Central Bank, but the pessimistic predictions re growth are clearly wrong - unless the ONS is cooking the books - which does leave a credibility problem in the current political climate.
And the BoE is a beacon of reasonableness compared to the sh*te that the IMF etc. were coming out with.0 -
Wallace and Gromit wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Ok - let's look at Carney's comments on the MPC meeting in May and then judge him
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36273448
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... ared-as-i/
I can't find a quote for a specific numerical prediction that pre-dates the referendum, but this covers the BoE's predictions after the result was known. Shortly after the referendum vote, the BoE was forecasting 0.1% growth for Q3. As recently as early September it had upgraded this to 0.3% and yesterday's out-turn was 0.5%.
So there's definitely some inherent undue pessimism in the BoE mindset. That's no bad thing for a Central Bank, but the pessimistic predictions re growth are clearly wrong - unless the ONS is cooking the books - which does leave a credibility problem in the current political climate.
And the BoE is a beacon of reasonableness compared to the sh*te that the IMF etc. were coming out with.
See my quotes above for what he said - all seems reasonable to me -as do Osborne's
Assuming you are Google savvy maybe the numerical predictions do not exist?
Q3 is Sept-Dec so too early to hang him for that.
Economic forecasts are more about trends than exact predictions. Can we agree that
Brexit has not happened
Growth trend is downwards
Inflation trend is up
Rather than sound bites the indicators below tell you more
Yesterday's growth figures were hiding bad news about construction and manufacturing- keep an eye on these sectors to help yourself in trend spotting.
Sterling fell when the Belfast legal challenge was rejected this suggests that the pound is being boosted by hopes that Brexit does not happen - expect it to fall further as that hope dwindles.
Gilt rates are soaring (from a very low base) this tells you what the markets think about the future state of the public finances and the risk premium they attach to it. The spread between us and Germany gives you a benchmark - obviously if it widens it is bad news.
And if that rabble manage to run Carney out of town guess which way the pound and gilts will move. If I was him being insulted by those intellectual pygmies I would walk off.0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:If the UK economy was doing so well to begin with I doubt you'd have had as many brexiters doing the nihilistic out vote.
UK has a genuine productivity problem and that's what Miliband etc were banging on about with their "standard of living" chat.
If productivity doesn't rise, people don't feel the GDP growth.
Arguably productivity should be THE most important stat for that reason.
That hasn't changed.
Rick - what could Remainers do to help the LibDems win the bye election? Can we channel cash directly to the constituency or do we need to bang on doors?
Plenty of people around to bangs on doors. Richmond is a nice place to walk around and mainly middle class.
Lib Dems are always short of money.
Can you give directly to the campaign?0
