BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

elbowloh

TheBigBean said:

elbowloh said:

TheBigBean said:

elbowloh said:

TheBigBean said:

elbowloh said:

Nothing to see here, carry on.

Exports of food and drink to the EU have suffered a “disastrous” decline in the first half of the year because of Brexit trade barriers, with sales of beef and cheese hit hardest

FDF said imports of food and drink and ingredients could “deteriorate” further in 2022 when full SPS checks on imports are introduced for the first time at Dover and other ports.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/02/brexit-uk-food-drink-exports-eu-disastrous-decline

It must be interesting working at the Guardian. You could do a proper job, review the relevant publications and write an article summarising the saliant points. Alternatively, you could just go for a quote and a random bit of data that supports the editorial position.

I don't have time to do the former, but here is the data. I suspect it is an extension of the news 3 months ago about a bad quarter due to Jan being terrible.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/june2021

It's the federation of food producers that are saying how shoite sales are.

Yes, they were down over a six month period because Jan was very low and Feb was low (note Dec was high). The real question should be about the extent they have recovered. I fully expect annual figures to be down and the Guardian to report this as well.

The half year like for like sales are down on 2019 and 2020, in some cases significantly...to the tune of £2bn.

Yes, but a Q2 comparison would be much more useful given the extensive courage they already gave to the Q1 figures (and the Jan figures).

Extensive coverage being 1 story on each as and when the federation makes a statement.

Either way its £2bn lost revenue to their members.

tailwindhome

Important to note, it's already happened, so there's no point discussing it

pblakeney

It’s a fine line between the unknown future and the past not worth crying over.
As some see it.

rick_chasey

So speaking to two senior fruit & veg buyers for a UK supermarket over dinner and they were saying quite a few things on the lorry issue.

a) they don't quite understand why it is news now and wasn't in Jan/Feb when it was the same problem
b) the lorry driver shortage is particularly acute for the following reasons
i) IR35 makes being a lorry driver less lucrative than it used to be
ii) corona testing etc makes driving lorries a lot more stressful than it used to be
iii) an aged workforce means a number of them, rather than doing all the extra work for corona for less money because of IR35, have instead retired
iv) they are no not able to tap into the continental lorry labour market to fill the gap

The supermarket in question has operations all over europe and they were saying that it's only in the UK where they have these problems, because of point iv). Other countries have other local problems (some are even more difficult to work in re corona testing etc), but they can tap into the EU27 workforce.

So they can get food destined to the UK from suppliers to the ports very easily, and then it gets congested/doesn't happen.

So what are they doing to solve this? Basically, the supermarkets are restricting range - so rather than have say, 5 different types of apple, to chose from they now might sell 2. So by streamlining the range, they can use the lorries more efficiently, at the cost of choice. They obviously try to focus on the least popular items in the ranges.

"so if your forum people are telling you they don't notice the different, it's because they're basic and buy what everyone else buys"



The point here is that of course there are lots of different things stressing the system, but it is the Brexit bit that has reduced the resilience to those stresses, hence the emptier shelves in the UK vs EU27.

rick_chasey

Ah one thing I missed off.

The big supermarkets and their superstores are least affected by this as they are the most efficient when it comes to lorry trips and for revenue so they are prioritised.

It is the smaller convenience shops which are struggling more. That is why your local cornershop (who also can't afford the hike in haulage prices) or the co-op, which runs on a convenience store model, are struggling more than say the massive Tesco megastore.

They also made the point that most big supermarkets are listed and so will not go public with their problems in case it affects the share price - Co-Op has no such concerns hence going public with their problems.

Pross

All makes sense and I think is mostly what people had been saying on here. The IR35 thing is something I only heard mentioned a few days ago, I hadn't realised so many drivers worked contract. You would think it would be possible for them to be outside IR35 by driving for various companies but I guess it can be hard to manage driving hours, rest periods etc. If you are truly 'freelance'.

skyblueamateur

rick_chasey said:

So speaking to two senior fruit & veg buyers for a UK supermarket over dinner and they were saying quite a few things on the lorry issue.

a) they don't quite understand why it is news now and wasn't in Jan/Feb when it was the same problem
b) the lorry driver shortage is particularly acute for the following reasons
i) IR35 makes being a lorry driver less lucrative than it used to be
ii) corona testing etc makes driving lorries a lot more stressful than it used to be
iii) an aged workforce means a number of them, rather than doing all the extra work for corona for less money because of IR35, have instead retired
iv) they are no not able to tap into the continental lorry labour market to fill the gap

The supermarket in question has operations all over europe and they were saying that it's only in the UK where they have these problems, because of point iv). Other countries have other local problems (some are even more difficult to work in re corona testing etc), but they can tap into the EU27 workforce.

So they can get food destined to the UK from suppliers to the ports very easily, and then it gets congested/doesn't happen.

So what are they doing to solve this? Basically, the supermarkets are restricting range - so rather than have say, 5 different types of apple, to chose from they now might sell 2. So by streamlining the range, they can use the lorries more efficiently, at the cost of choice. They obviously try to focus on the least popular items in the ranges.

"so if your forum people are telling you they don't notice the different, it's because they're basic and buy what everyone else buys"



The point here is that of course there are lots of different things stressing the system, but it is the Brexit bit that has reduced the resilience to those stresses, hence the emptier shelves in the UK vs EU27.

Just eat home-grown crab apples you snowflake......

TheBigBean

rick_chasey said:

The point here is that of course there are lots of different things stressing the system, but it is the Brexit bit that has reduced the resilience to those stresses, hence the emptier shelves in the UK vs EU27.

Or alternatively it was the huge supply of foreign labour that distorted the market to begin with.

Why are there no young drivers?

Also, when drivers are asked a lot mention conditions being a significant factor.

kingstongraham

TheBigBean said:

rick_chasey said:

The point here is that of course there are lots of different things stressing the system, but it is the Brexit bit that has reduced the resilience to those stresses, hence the emptier shelves in the UK vs EU27.

Or alternatively it was the huge supply of foreign labour that distorted the market to begin with.

Why are there no young drivers?

Also, when drivers are asked a lot mention conditions being a significant factor.

Altered would be better than distorted.

ddraver

Pross said:

All makes sense and I think is mostly what people had been saying on here. The IR35 thing is something I only heard mentioned a few days ago, I hadn't realised so many drivers worked contract. You would think it would be possible for them to be outside IR35 by driving for various companies but I guess it can be hard to manage driving hours, rest periods etc. If you are truly 'freelance'.

The second bit is a lot of it for sure. A company can't manage a drivers hours if he's driving for someone else too. And if (when) he gets caught, they get a fine too...

(it's actually one of the few examples of where the blame/risk/punishment ratio is fairly split across employee and employer. Good ol' EU Socialism)

rick_chasey

TheBigBean said:

rick_chasey said:

The point here is that of course there are lots of different things stressing the system, but it is the Brexit bit that has reduced the resilience to those stresses, hence the emptier shelves in the UK vs EU27.

Or alternatively it was the huge supply of foreign labour that distorted the market to begin with.

Why are there no young drivers?

Also, when drivers are asked a lot mention conditions being a significant factor.

So i'd take issue with "distorted" - what do you mean? What should the market be if one with non-brits doing the driving is "distorted"? What's wrong with having foreign drivers?

So this is what the industry bodies have been saying, as I mentioned on here.

Their line, which seems reasonable is this.

"If the government wants the lorry sector to be populated by British drivers, that is fine, but then they should have prepared for this. The make up of the British lorry sector has been known for 20 years, and the challenges it is facing around IR35 have been signposted by the industry since they came in. These are not new problems.

In the meantime, as there has been no preparation, we are now in a situation where the system is overstretched and the gov't is doing nothing to alleviate it"

I think you would agree BB that if you want to make changes that affect the supply of food and goods, you should do them in a way that avoids disruption, and avoids reduced resilience, rather than just allowing the disruption to happen and not doing anything about it.

The Brexit vote happened in 2016, the lorry industry has been in this state for the last 15 years - what has this gov't been doing to avoid the problems it is now facing?


In the meantime of course, Britain has some incredibly poor people due to its heavy inequality, and now food prices will likely rise as a result of mismanagement of the situation, worsening their situation.

morstar

TheBigBean said:

rick_chasey said:

The point here is that of course there are lots of different things stressing the system, but it is the Brexit bit that has reduced the resilience to those stresses, hence the emptier shelves in the UK vs EU27.

Or alternatively it was the huge supply of foreign labour that distorted the market to begin with.

Why are there no young drivers?

Also, when drivers are asked a lot mention conditions being a significant factor.

Quite. All this does is confirm that a post Brexit refusal to allow foreign labour has exposed the fact that the job does not pay a sufficient rate commensurate with the expectations of doing it.

If you are Brexit minded, rather than being proved wrong, you are being proved right.

surrey_commuter

rick_chasey said:

TheBigBean said:

rick_chasey said:

The point here is that of course there are lots of different things stressing the system, but it is the Brexit bit that has reduced the resilience to those stresses, hence the emptier shelves in the UK vs EU27.

Or alternatively it was the huge supply of foreign labour that distorted the market to begin with.

Why are there no young drivers?

Also, when drivers are asked a lot mention conditions being a significant factor.

So i'd take issue with "distorted" - what do you mean? What should the market be if one with non-brits doing the driving is "distorted"? What's wrong with having foreign drivers?

So this is what the industry bodies have been saying, as I mentioned on here.

Their line, which seems reasonable is this.

"If the government wants the lorry sector to be populated by British drivers, that is fine, but then they should have prepared for this. The make up of the British lorry sector has been known for 20 years, and the challenges it is facing around IR35 have been signposted by the industry since they came in. These are not new problems.

In the meantime, as there has been no preparation, we are now in a situation where the system is overstretched and the gov't is doing nothing to alleviate it"

I think you would agree BB that if you want to make changes that affect the supply of food and goods, you should do them in a way that avoids disruption, and avoids reduced resilience, rather than just allowing the disruption to happen and not doing anything about it.

The Brexit vote happened in 2016, the lorry industry has been in this state for the last 15 years - what has this gov't been doing to avoid the problems it is now facing?

Can you name one instance of this Govt trying to prioritise the economy?

Until you accept that they don’t care you will remain incapable of understanding their actions and possible future actions

rick_chasey

morstar said:

If you are Brexit minded, rather than being proved wrong, you are being proved right.

You might have to spell this one out for me, as I'm fairly sure a "less resilient supply chain and problems filling supermarket shelves, reduced choice" is not being proved right?

Is it that Brexiters want lorry drivers to be paid more? Deliberately creating a shortage so that the handful of drivers have the market over a barrel? I can think of less disruptive ways to give lorry drivers better conditions.

I'm sure they were up in arms about IR35 too, right?

You do understand that creating shortages does not improve the economy? We are all part of the economy.

surrey_commuter

TheBigBean said:

rick_chasey said:

The point here is that of course there are lots of different things stressing the system, but it is the Brexit bit that has reduced the resilience to those stresses, hence the emptier shelves in the UK vs EU27.

Or alternatively it was the huge supply of foreign labour that distorted the market to begin with.

Why are there no young drivers?

Also, when drivers are asked a lot mention conditions being a significant factor.

If the Govt believed your first point to be correct why would you not have a plan and transition period to avoid the worse economic disruption.

You answer your second question but I would add the cost of qualification

TheBigBean

They have had five years' notice of the possibility of change, but yes ultimately businesses need to compete, so if foreign labour was the cheapest option that was what they needed to use. Now it isn't, now they need to entice drivers out of retirement, train new drivers and treat them better.

rick_chasey

It goes to my other point about "doing stuff to add value" earlier on.

If Brits don't want to be doing the jobs other Europeans will, then why not get those Brits to do higher value work?

The market is literally telling you that Brits, with their excellent education system etc are better off doing something else.

If no-one in Britain wants to do the lorry driving but people from Austria or Poland will, then surely that is a good thing? Everyone wins - the Austrians or Poles who want to do the lorry driving, and the Brits who don't?

elbowloh

TheBigBean said:

rick_chasey said:

The point here is that of course there are lots of different things stressing the system, but it is the Brexit bit that has reduced the resilience to those stresses, hence the emptier shelves in the UK vs EU27.

Or alternatively it was the huge supply of foreign labour that distorted the market to begin with.

Why are there no young drivers?

Also, when drivers are asked a lot mention conditions being a significant factor.

There was a guy being interviewed about this on the beeb earlier in the week, he's about to retire.

Said he's away from home 5 days a week, sleeping in his cab. There are very few facilities on the roads for truckers (and it's gotten worse over the years) in the UK compared to continental Europe apparently. Not many places to go to the toilet, have a shower or to stop to sleep. This is a significant factor.

It's not really attractive for anyone, let alone young people.

There was a other guy who said in this crisis his hourly rate had gone up 40% (to about £22 / hr) even then he says it's not enough to keep him in the profession.

rick_chasey

TheBigBean said:

They have had five years' notice of the possibility of change, but yes ultimately businesses need to compete, so if foreign labour was the cheapest option that was what they needed to use. Now it isn't, now they need to entice drivers out of retirement, train new drivers and treat them better.

Yes, that is why the gov't needed to prepare much earlier. No preparation has been done.

The gov't decides unilaterally to leave the single market (fact) and then does no prep for what happens to supply chains when that happens.

pangolin

rick_chasey said:

TheBigBean said:

They have had five years' notice of the possibility of change, but yes ultimately businesses need to compete, so if foreign labour was the cheapest option that was what they needed to use. Now it isn't, now they need to entice drivers out of retirement, train new drivers and treat them better.

Yes, that is why the gov't needed to prepare much earlier. No preparation has been done.

The gov't decides unilaterally to leave the single market (fact) and then does no prep for what happens to supply chains when that happens.

Playing devils advocate, the Government weren't alone in knowing Brexit was coming. Could a plucky British haulage company could have spotted the gap and aimed to up their capacity to fill it? Or is the gap too huge / the dates and rules too uncertain?

rick_chasey

pangolin said:

rick_chasey said:

TheBigBean said:

They have had five years' notice of the possibility of change, but yes ultimately businesses need to compete, so if foreign labour was the cheapest option that was what they needed to use. Now it isn't, now they need to entice drivers out of retirement, train new drivers and treat them better.

Yes, that is why the gov't needed to prepare much earlier. No preparation has been done.

The gov't decides unilaterally to leave the single market (fact) and then does no prep for what happens to supply chains when that happens.

Playing devils advocate, the Government weren't alone in knowing Brexit was coming. Could a plucky British haulage company could have spotted the gap and aimed to up their capacity to fill it? Or is the gap too huge / the dates and rules too uncertain?

It’s a free market, there’s no reason why that couldn’t happen.

You need to ask yourself why it didn’t and why 9 months down the line that is still the case.

rjsterry

TheBigBean said:

rick_chasey said:

The point here is that of course there are lots of different things stressing the system, but it is the Brexit bit that has reduced the resilience to those stresses, hence the emptier shelves in the UK vs EU27.

Or alternatively it was the huge supply of foreign labour that distorted the market to begin with.

Why are there no young drivers?

Also, when drivers are asked a lot mention conditions being a significant factor.

Are you saying that the huge supply of foreign labour is continuing to distort the market in the rest of Europe?

rick_chasey

You have a job not enough Brits want to do, there's a whole load of people who do want to do the jobs the Brits don't but you don't want them to do them because they're not Brits.

Pathetic the whole thing. Should be glad people are willing to do the jobs you don't.

I should add, none of us here want to be lorry drivers - why is that?

TheBigBean

rick_chasey said:

It goes to my other point about "doing stuff to add value" earlier on.

If Brits don't want to be doing the jobs other Europeans will, then why not get those Brits to do higher value work?

The market is literally telling you that Brits, with their excellent education system etc are better off doing something else.

If no-one in Britain wants to do the lorry driving but people from Austria or Poland will, then surely that is a good thing? Everyone wins - the Austrians or Poles who want to do the lorry driving, and the Brits who don't?

What you are arguing for is artificially low salaries in some sectors and for these to be maintained by immigration. Call it the nursing model. I'm just not sure why truck driving should be one of the chosen sectors.

rick_chasey

Why is it artificial? It's the international market rate.

Surely introducing barriers around nationality is more artificial then just opening up the market to international competition? It would be on the supply & demand chart.

rjsterry

One man's artificial distortion is another's market forces.

rick_chasey

So if I can remember my economic text book currently, the net loss in the scenario of restricting supply to only domestic (instead of international) is the area in the right angle triangle with points E and A.

price is Y axis, Quantity is X axis.

Going the other way from domestic to international is a net gain amounting to the same area.

(price times quantity, innit)

Net of course includes the gain to consumers in the form of lower prices.

TheBigBean

rick_chasey said:

Why is it artificial? It's the international market rate.

Surely introducing barriers around nationality is more artificial then just opening up the market to international competition? It would be on the supply & demand chart.

The international market rate would include drivers from all over the world. You could abolish the minimum wage, import workers from all over the world and give them worse entitlements like the UAE, but most people, sensibly, are against that.

ddraver

We used to have a bunch of ex-UK Truckers come work for us (usually not very successfully tbh) and they would say the same. Most of them had been able to build a good amount of money and buy some decent property (often more than one, and in more than one country) during the 'glory days' but had been tempted away as routes got shorter (more boring) and contracts got more 'single houred' to driving luxury busses* instead

*(if such things exist...)

rick_chasey

TheBigBean said:

rick_chasey said:

Why is it artificial? It's the international market rate.

Surely introducing barriers around nationality is more artificial then just opening up the market to international competition? It would be on the supply & demand chart.

The international market rate would include drivers from all over the world. You could abolish the minimum wage, import workers from all over the world and give them worse entitlements like the UAE, but most people, sensibly, are against that.

You can open the market up to international competition and set minimum standards.

You seem to want to use market restrictions to improve conditions rather than just legislate for better conditions.

Why do you care what nationality a lorry driver is?