BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

Stevo_666

rick_chasey said:

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

TheBlueBean said:

drhaggis said:

For those in doubt: it's pretty obvious that Stevo understands neither modelling nor chaos.

That may be true, but it would be better to assert why you do not believe that there is chaos in economics.

I’ve posted an article from the FT about 5 times which shows how accurate the pre ref Brexit forecasts were.

All the serious organisations were correct within a small margin of error.

Over what period?

It's worth pointing out that we haven't actually left yet, so what scenario were they actually forecasting?

I’ve posted it directly in relation to your posts multiple times.

It’s all in the article.

It’s not my fault you chose not to read it, after multiple chances.

Fair enough, I'll just assume you have made no valid point as I can't see the evidence.

Stevo_666

rjsterry said:

All your arguments have been about long term forecasts. This is a question of 3.5years with actual data for both our economy and our peers. Of course you can't put a precise figure on it but again, we're not looking for a precise figure. Nearest order of magnitude will do. And there will be a probability attached to the comparative estimate of 'without Brexit' performance. I don't know what that is, but I'd hazard a guess that it's well into the more-likely-than-not range. Take those two bits of information and you can establish with a reasonable degree of (but not absolute) certainty whether the difference in tax revenues between the actual and modelled performance is greater than, less than, or roughly comparable with payments to the EU. No time machine needed.

What is? If its Rick evidence hes already said he CBA to show it so in effect he has made no point all.

And as you are referring to actual data then whatever it is, it must all refer to a period before leaving the EU - so is irrelevant.

rjsterry

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

All your arguments have been about long term forecasts. This is a question of 3.5years with actual data for both our economy and our peers. Of course you can't put a precise figure on it but again, we're not looking for a precise figure. Nearest order of magnitude will do. And there will be a probability attached to the comparative estimate of 'without Brexit' performance. I don't know what that is, but I'd hazard a guess that it's well into the more-likely-than-not range. Take those two bits of information and you can establish with a reasonable degree of (but not absolute) certainty whether the difference in tax revenues between the actual and modelled performance is greater than, less than, or roughly comparable with payments to the EU. No time machine needed.

What is? If its Rick evidence hes already said he CBA to show it so in effect he has made no point all.

And as you are referring to actual data then whatever it is, it must all refer to a period before leaving the EU - so is irrelevant.

And we're straight back to your live in the moment nonsense. I'm referring to the Bloomberg article I posted, which was looking at the negative effect of our collective dithering between the referendum and now, by looking at our actual performance as compared to a model based on the long established relationship with the G7 performance. The lost growth illustrated in that article would have some impact on tax revenues. Not one we can quantify precisely, but one we can estimate to a reasonable degree. It's not a complicated argument.

By the way, from what I read, the jury is still out on whether economic systems exhibit true chaos or more generally non-linesr relationships.

For example http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/35988/1/35988.pdf

rick_chasey

I love this idea that you can never asses the cost of decisions in hindsight.

rick_chasey

I’ll tell me wife that next time she tells me to do my tax return earlier.

“You don’t know what would have happened had I done it earlier!”

kingstongraham

I might have got this headache even if I hadn't bashed my head repeatedly against a brick wall. We'll never know if it was the right thing to do.

Stevo_666

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

All your arguments have been about long term forecasts. This is a question of 3.5years with actual data for both our economy and our peers. Of course you can't put a precise figure on it but again, we're not looking for a precise figure. Nearest order of magnitude will do. And there will be a probability attached to the comparative estimate of 'without Brexit' performance. I don't know what that is, but I'd hazard a guess that it's well into the more-likely-than-not range. Take those two bits of information and you can establish with a reasonable degree of (but not absolute) certainty whether the difference in tax revenues between the actual and modelled performance is greater than, less than, or roughly comparable with payments to the EU. No time machine needed.

What is? If its Rick evidence hes already said he CBA to show it so in effect he has made no point all.

And as you are referring to actual data then whatever it is, it must all refer to a period before leaving the EU - so is irrelevant.

And we're straight back to your live in the moment nonsense. I'm referring to the Bloomberg article I posted, which was looking at the negative effect of our collective dithering between the referendum and now, by looking at our actual performance as compared to a model based on the long established relationship with the G7 performance. The lost growth illustrated in that article would have some impact on tax revenues. Not one we can quantify precisely, but one we can estimate to a reasonable degree. It's not a complicated argument.

By the way, from what I read, the jury is still out on whether economic systems exhibit true chaos or more generally non-linesr relationships.

For example http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/35988/1/35988.pdf

I don't know where you get the point about live in the moment. I think you and others simply don't get the point.

And one academic article casting doubt on chaotic behaviour of financial markets does not make it any more forecastanle,

Stevo_666

kingstongraham said:

I might have got this headache even if I hadn't bashed my head repeatedly against a brick wall. We'll never know if it was the right thing to do.

Overly simplistic don't you think?

Stevo_666

rick_chasey said:

I’ll tell me wife that next time she tells me to do my tax return earlier.

“You don’t know what would have happened had I done it earlier!”

See my comment to KG. Same applies to your statement.

briantrumpet

Stevo_666 said:

I don't know where you get the point about live in the moment. I think you and others simply don't get the point.

Maybe we are getting the point, however many times you claim the contrary. Just a thought.

Stevo_666

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

I don't know where you get the point about live in the moment. I think you and others simply don't get the point.

Maybe we are getting the point, however many times you claim the contrary. Just a thought.

Or maybe not. Or maybe you don't want to understand because you really want to be able to say in 10 years time that nasty Brexit was so harmful?

Try reading the book I recommended. It's quite intellectual and theoretical so should be right up your street.

briantrumpet

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

I don't know where you get the point about live in the moment. I think you and others simply don't get the point.

Maybe we are getting the point, however many times you claim the contrary. Just a thought.

Or maybe not. Or maybe you don't want to understand because you really want to be able to say in 10 years time that nasty Brexit was so harmful?

Try reading the book I recommended. It's quite intellectual and theoretical so should be right up your street.

I might well get that book, thanks, but your denial that there can be any way of assessing Brexit's economic ramifications isn't convincing at all. After all, you've been trumpeting how much it might benefit the UK - how would you measure that?

kingstongraham

rjsterry said:

kingstongraham said:

Crowdfunding might get us a Big Ben Brexit Bong. Only £500,000 needed.

If ever more proof were needed that this country has gone a bit weird.

Turns out that Johnson made this up. Imagine that! There is no fund for people to donate to and it's not going to be publicly funded.

That sounds pretty much on-brand.

If this works the way Trump does, there will now be a crowd funding page created to prove him right.

rjsterry

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

All your arguments have been about long term forecasts. This is a question of 3.5years with actual data for both our economy and our peers. Of course you can't put a precise figure on it but again, we're not looking for a precise figure. Nearest order of magnitude will do. And there will be a probability attached to the comparative estimate of 'without Brexit' performance. I don't know what that is, but I'd hazard a guess that it's well into the more-likely-than-not range. Take those two bits of information and you can establish with a reasonable degree of (but not absolute) certainty whether the difference in tax revenues between the actual and modelled performance is greater than, less than, or roughly comparable with payments to the EU. No time machine needed.

What is? If its Rick evidence hes already said he CBA to show it so in effect he has made no point all.

And as you are referring to actual data then whatever it is, it must all refer to a period before leaving the EU - so is irrelevant.

And we're straight back to your live in the moment nonsense. I'm referring to the Bloomberg article I posted, which was looking at the negative effect of our collective dithering between the referendum and now, by looking at our actual performance as compared to a model based on the long established relationship with the G7 performance. The lost growth illustrated in that article would have some impact on tax revenues. Not one we can quantify precisely, but one we can estimate to a reasonable degree. It's not a complicated argument.

By the way, from what I read, the jury is still out on whether economic systems exhibit true chaos or more generally non-linesr relationships.

For example http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/35988/1/35988.pdf

I don't know where you get the point about live in the moment. I think you and others simply don't get the point.

And one academic article casting doubt on chaotic behaviour of financial markets does not make it any more forecastable,

On your first point, you've more than once commented that historic data is irrelevant. Clearly in relation to the article I posted, historic data is not irrelevant. In 5 years time, the preceding 5 years' data will also be relevant in assessing where we are. Of course we won't be able to categorically state that our decision to leave the EU is responsible for £Xbn of whatever, but we should be able to gauge whether we are doing better than our peers, worse or about the same and make some assessment of possible causes.

Whether economic systems do or don't exhibit chaotic behaviour (in the mathematical sense) is important in determining whether using chaos theory to improve predictions - as has happened in other fields - is appropriate. The argument for chaos theory not applying to markets is that there is not a deterministic rule governing evolution of that system. I'll have a look out for that book you mentioned.

rick_chasey

Stevo_666 said:

kingstongraham said:

I might have got this headache even if I hadn't bashed my head repeatedly against a brick wall. We'll never know if it was the right thing to do.

Overly simplistic don't you think?

Yes I agree that the logic that you can’t compare the value of decisions made in hindsight is overly simplistic and, in fact, nonsense.

rjsterry

kingstongraham said:

rjsterry said:

kingstongraham said:

Crowdfunding might get us a Big Ben Brexit Bong. Only £500,000 needed.

If ever more proof were needed that this country has gone a bit weird.

Turns out that Johnson made this up. Imagine that! There is no fund for people to donate to and it's not going to be publicly funded.

That sounds pretty much on-brand.

If this works the way Trump does, there will now be a crowd funding page created to prove him right.

I think it is unlikely that two weeks is enough time to actually carry out the work needed to make this happen, regardless of funding.

Longshot

Stevo_666 said:

kingstongraham said:

I might have got this headache even if I hadn't bashed my head repeatedly against a brick wall. We'll never know if it was the right thing to do.

Overly simplistic don't you think?

Well, yes and no. We may able to make a judgement in the future as to whether the country has performed well or not post Brexit. What we can't do is make any kind of useful judgement as to whether that outcome is better or worse than if we'd stayed.

surrey_commuter

Longshot said:

Stevo_666 said:

kingstongraham said:

I might have got this headache even if I hadn't bashed my head repeatedly against a brick wall. We'll never know if it was the right thing to do.

Overly simplistic don't you think?

Well, yes and no. We may able to make a judgement in the future as to whether the country has performed well or not post Brexit. What we can't do is make any kind of useful judgement as to whether that outcome is better or worse than if we'd stayed.

It might well be me but can you rewrite that as you seem to be contradicting yourself.

I accept that I my well have missed the joke

Longshot

surrey_commuter said:

Longshot said:

Stevo_666 said:

kingstongraham said:

I might have got this headache even if I hadn't bashed my head repeatedly against a brick wall. We'll never know if it was the right thing to do.

Overly simplistic don't you think?

Well, yes and no. We may able to make a judgement in the future as to whether the country has performed well or not post Brexit. What we can't do is make any kind of useful judgement as to whether that outcome is better or worse than if we'd stayed.

It might well be me but can you rewrite that as you seem to be contradicting yourself.

I accept that I my well have missed the joke

OK, I'll try as no joke was intended.

1. We can judge whether the country has performed well (or not) as an economy at some point after Brexit.
2. We can't judge (reliably) whether that outcome is better or worse than if Brexit had not happened.

kingstongraham

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1217356349505527811?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1217303398636126210?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Jeesus Christ.

rjsterry

Bit late to start worrying about that, Nigel.

tailwindhome

On the Trump deal this may be good handling of Trump

ODITNO

kingstongraham

I guess any replacement for Trump won't be as petty as him to hold it against people/governments for debasing themselves to appeal to his ego.

tailwindhome

kingstongraham said:

I guess any replacement for Trump won't be as petty as him to hold it against people/governments for debasing themselves to appeal to his ego.

“Diplomacy is the art of letting someone else have your way.”

kingstongraham

tailwindhome said:

kingstongraham said:

I guess any replacement for Trump won't be as petty as him to hold it against people/governments for debasing themselves to appeal to his ego.

“Diplomacy is the art of letting someone else have your way.”

Just need to convince Iran to go along with the plan.

That could be harder than Democrats letting him get his USMCA rebranding, even though it had everything they wanted.

surrey_commuter

Longshot said:

surrey_commuter said:

Longshot said:

Stevo_666 said:

kingstongraham said:

I might have got this headache even if I hadn't bashed my head repeatedly against a brick wall. We'll never know if it was the right thing to do.

Overly simplistic don't you think?

Well, yes and no. We may able to make a judgement in the future as to whether the country has performed well or not post Brexit. What we can't do is make any kind of useful judgement as to whether that outcome is better or worse than if we'd stayed.

It might well be me but can you rewrite that as you seem to be contradicting yourself.

I accept that I my well have missed the joke

OK, I'll try as no joke was intended.

1. We can judge whether the country has performed well (or not) as an economy at some point after Brexit.
2. We can't judge (reliably) whether that outcome is better or worse than if Brexit had not happened.

cheers - just me not understanding. How are you judging whether the economy has done well post-Brexit?

If you judge us against similar economies or a basket of economies then you will be comparing a relative performance pre and post referendum.
Or you can use sophisticated macro-economic models that have Brexit and don't have Brexit.

At the moment it is universally agreed that the UK economy has shown a relative decline since Cameron called the referendum. It will be possible to reliably judge if Brexit has been positive or negative, if it is not possible it will because it has had no impact.

It is only Steveo and Coopster who think the ref has had no impact on the UK economy, Boris/Farage and co acknowledge this as a fact and claim it will be rectified by pent up demand.

rick_chasey

Longshot said:

surrey_commuter said:

Longshot said:

Stevo_666 said:

kingstongraham said:

I might have got this headache even if I hadn't bashed my head repeatedly against a brick wall. We'll never know if it was the right thing to do.

Overly simplistic don't you think?

Well, yes and no. We may able to make a judgement in the future as to whether the country has performed well or not post Brexit. What we can't do is make any kind of useful judgement as to whether that outcome is better or worse than if we'd stayed.

It might well be me but can you rewrite that as you seem to be contradicting yourself.

I accept that I my well have missed the joke

OK, I'll try as no joke was intended.

1. We can judge whether the country has performed well (or not) as an economy at some point after Brexit.
2. We can't judge (reliably) whether that outcome is better or worse than if Brexit had not happened.

This is plainly b@ll@cks

kingstongraham

These arguments about not being able to tell are dependent on it being a fairly marginal impact, surely?

Longshot

rick_chasey said:

Longshot said:

surrey_commuter said:

Longshot said:

Stevo_666 said:

kingstongraham said:

I might have got this headache even if I hadn't bashed my head repeatedly against a brick wall. We'll never know if it was the right thing to do.

Overly simplistic don't you think?

Well, yes and no. We may able to make a judgement in the future as to whether the country has performed well or not post Brexit. What we can't do is make any kind of useful judgement as to whether that outcome is better or worse than if we'd stayed.

It might well be me but can you rewrite that as you seem to be contradicting yourself.

I accept that I my well have missed the joke

OK, I'll try as no joke was intended.

1. We can judge whether the country has performed well (or not) as an economy at some point after Brexit.
2. We can't judge (reliably) whether that outcome is better or worse than if Brexit had not happened.

This is plainly b@ll@cks

No it's not. Tell me why you think it is.

Longshot

surrey_commuter said:

Longshot said:

surrey_commuter said:

Longshot said:

Stevo_666 said:

kingstongraham said:

I might have got this headache even if I hadn't bashed my head repeatedly against a brick wall. We'll never know if it was the right thing to do.

Overly simplistic don't you think?

Well, yes and no. We may able to make a judgement in the future as to whether the country has performed well or not post Brexit. What we can't do is make any kind of useful judgement as to whether that outcome is better or worse than if we'd stayed.

It might well be me but can you rewrite that as you seem to be contradicting yourself.

I accept that I my well have missed the joke

OK, I'll try as no joke was intended.

1. We can judge whether the country has performed well (or not) as an economy at some point after Brexit.
2. We can't judge (reliably) whether that outcome is better or worse than if Brexit had not happened.

cheers - just me not understanding. How are you judging whether the economy has done well post-Brexit?

You can judge it by growth. You can judge it by business sentiment. You can judge it by employment levels, GDP, happiness, etc.

None of these need to be comparative in relation to other countries.

Biggest test would be does the global financial and business community have confidence in the UK?