BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

rjsterry

Timber frame is not unusual here either. People just think their houses are built of bricks because that's what they can see on the outside.

rjsterry

Back to actual Brexit/GE for a moment: I enjoyed a member of the public quizzing Johnson on the non-publication of the report on Russian election interference.

Also, a good thread from Katya Adler on why agreeing an FTA by the end of 2020 is pie in the sky. And Johnson will not Get Brexit Done any time soon.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1197484860547444736?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

thegreatdivide

Liz Truss knows how many council houses have been built and Priti Patel says the poor are not the Government’s problem.

pblakeney

Nice timing to be going into international trade talks seeing as we are now foul of the U.N.

Ben6899

thegreatdivide said:

Liz Truss knows how many council houses have been built

She only knows because Andrew Neil told her!

morstar

rick_chasey said:

Stevo_666 said:

Pross said:

longshot said:

pblakeney said:

Has Brexit chased all the builders back home?

There haven't been enough skilled trades for years. Nothing to do with Brexit.

Yes, but immigration from the likes of Poland at the start of the century helped plug the gaps (as well as possibly being a key factor in the Brexit referendum even happening). Understandably many of those are feeling unwelcome and are heading back home so the shortage of skilled trades will become greater. It will be good for those in the trade though as they'll be able to name their price with a perfect storm of shortage of supply and demand for their skills. They'll be able to then retire early to Spain and leave even more of a shortage. Finding a plumber / electrician to do a simple bit of maintenance could be fun.

Although if prices go up sufficiently then there will be more skilled trades attracted back/into the trade - supply and demand etc.

mmm up to a point. Cambridge has had a shortage of plumbers for 20 years - they charge through the nose and the supply hasn't really gone up. Principally because most people don't want to spend their working day elbow deep in other people's sh!t and pIss.

There's also the affordability factor - a lot of people just won't pay for those services if they're too spenny - demand reduces with supply after all.

It's partly closed shop economics causing the shortfall. You generally have to train with a plumber to become a plumber so it becomes self limiting. There are plenty of people would become plumbers as it can pay well.
Secondly, we don't promote this type of work as worthy throughout our education system. We force everybody down an academic route up to the age of 16 at which point, the 'failures' are only then pointed at some more vocational options. This is totally f***ed up both practically and ideologically.
Ironically, the academic requirements of plumbing are a cause of high drop out rate. The even more ironic point being that, if we'd taught mathematics in a practical environment in addition to the classroom, the student might just have got it in the first place.

rjsterry

Pretty sure my local FE college offers plumbing courses, along with other trades. The main pressure on numbers is people leaving the trades faster than we can train new ones. Yet another aspect of our aging population.

rick_chasey

So if you use the polls to gauge how well the election is going for each party, Tories are smashing it.

thecycleclinic

There has been at least 10 years of under investment I many area that deficit has been there for longer. So aside from whether a big splurge now will be affordable the big question is can it spent properly. Government has struggled to.spend smaller amounts properly as its capacity to plan and deliver projects has been hollowed out. Think small state and you become small. That what's happened. So quite how labour plan to spend that sum of money is not clear. It will.probably mean more centralised control and therefore a lot of waste. Given the latest polls we dont have to worry though. Brexit party has collapsed and the votes have gone to the tories.

To be honest I am close to switching off from poltics but not economics.

Is it not the case that inflation reponce to money supply has weakened because the capacity for production has increased. So.more money can be absorbed by producing more stuff rather than raising the unit price. Does anyo e have a better take.

rjsterry

rick_chasey said:

So if you use the polls to gauge how well the election is going for each party, Tories are smashing it.

True. However, I was reading an interesting article by a chap who works for YouGov explaining how national polling is not picking up significant local fluctuations and tactical voting intentions. They have done some polling in I think 6 individual constituencies and found that the results are quite different from the modelling based on national polling.

Stevo_666

rjsterry said:

rick_chasey said:

So if you use the polls to gauge how well the election is going for each party, Tories are smashing it.

True. However, I was reading an interesting article by a chap who works for YouGov explaining how national polling is not picking up significant local fluctuations and tactical voting intentions. They have done some polling in I think 6 individual constituencies and found that the results are quite different from the modelling based on national polling.

I admire your positive outlook, but unless there is a major turnaround in fortunes for Labour and Lib Dems there will need to be a lot of tactical voting:
https://theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/tories-renewed-poll-boost-brexit-party-candidates-pull-out-opinium-observer

So far so good.

thecycleclinic

Currently there is going to be a comfortable tory majority that's elected on a transition period of 11 months. So the deal will pass then in 2021 it's no deal as there probably wont be a trade deal in time. Of course if there is that not really a success. A trade deal is a long way from where we are at present. Tory rule for the foreseeable future. The lib dems just dont get it. They are overcome by remainia and look out of touch. Most remainers dont put stopping brexit at number one, hense mang will.vote labour. Tactical error of massive proportions to play to a base. This play to the base poltics will do the nation.

bendertherobot

kingstongraham said:

mfin said:

My favourite laugh of the pitching in the last week is Boris' Politcal Party Broadcast where he was on the wander, making coffee answering staged questions which were subsequently over-dubbed with another voice. Well, the particular laugh is the sheer gall of the Cons to have him repeatedly seen next to "20,000 more police officers" posters when that's pretty much the same number the party themselves have reduced them by. The poster might as well say "we promise to fix the complete f**k up policing problem that we ourselves caused by putting it back to where it was".

I mean, what kind of people fall for this? Do they REALLY think people are that stupid? Their running down of police has been talked about time and time and time again, and 20,000 has always been the number mentioned as the reduction under the cons.

This is just another example of how utterly trusting they are in the fact that people are stupid, and they can get stupid people to vote for them by saying stupid things.

This is what skewered Matt Hancock v Susanna Reid. The way he repeats "20,000 more police officers" even when she's saying that it's less than they cut is like Nigel Tufnell describing his amp.

https://youtu.be/RdbTV1Os7ik

rjsterry

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

rick_chasey said:

So if you use the polls to gauge how well the election is going for each party, Tories are smashing it.

True. However, I was reading an interesting article by a chap who works for YouGov explaining how national polling is not picking up significant local fluctuations and tactical voting intentions. They have done some polling in I think 6 individual constituencies and found that the results are quite different from the modelling based on national polling.

I admire your positive outlook, but unless there is a major turnaround in fortunes for Labour and Lib Dems there will need to be a lot of tactical voting:
https://theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/tories-renewed-poll-boost-brexit-party-candidates-pull-out-opinium-observer

So far so good.

They've only looked at 6 seats, but they were I think 6 that national polling suggested would be similar and local polling suggests a different result in each seat. Maybe it's YouGov getting their excuses in early.

kingstongraham

https://twitter.com/TheIFS/status/1197912250033561601?s=09

rick_chasey

This is why the U.K. can’t have nice things

Pross

I see Labour are trying the tactic of changing what the Tories actually said and then attacking them on the modified version.

Tories: We're going to increase the number of nurses from 280,000 to 330,000 by a combination of better staff retention, recruitment from abroad and training more.

Labour: The Tories have promised 50,000 new nurses but 35,000 of them already work in the NHS.

I listened whilst Matt Hancock actually did a decent job of explaining to Jeremy Vine (who seem to be struggling with the concept) the difference between Labour's misinterpretation and what they'd actually said which was immediately followed by the Shadow Health Secretary coming on and demonstrating once again that he was either wilfully misleading people or incapable of understanding that increasing the numbers by 50,000 isn't the same thing as promising 50,000 new staff.

No doubt the Labour message will have already sunk in with those it was aimed at though and there'll be a plethora of Facebook memes based on it by the end of the day.

pblakeney

To be fair, the BBC aren’t Helping.
“The Conservative manifesto pledges to add 50,000 nurses to the workforce in England by 2024-25.”

Nor the Tories. From their manifesto on their own website.
“ Extra funding for the NHS, with 50,000 more nurses and 50 million more GP surgery appointments a year.”

rjsterry

rick_chasey said:

This is why the U.K. can’t have nice things

Because you break them,
I have to take them,
Away-ayyy.

😬

rick_chasey

Taylor Swift fan?

slowbike

pblakeney said:

To be fair, the BBC aren’t Helping.
“The Conservative manifesto pledges to add 50,000 nurses to the workforce in England by 2024-25.”

Nor the Tories. From their manifesto on their own website.
“ Extra funding for the NHS, with 50,000 more nurses and 50 million more GP surgery appointments a year.”

well - it is an additional - just with some added through retention rather than new entry ...

pblakeney

slowbike said:

pblakeney said:

To be fair, the BBC aren’t Helping.
“The Conservative manifesto pledges to add 50,000 nurses to the workforce in England by 2024-25.”

Nor the Tories. From their manifesto on their own website.
“ Extra funding for the NHS, with 50,000 more nurses and 50 million more GP surgery appointments a year.”

well - it is an additional - just with some added through retention rather than new entry ...

That will be the facts, but it is not how they are being sold.

slowbike

pblakeney said:

slowbike said:

pblakeney said:

To be fair, the BBC aren’t Helping.
“The Conservative manifesto pledges to add 50,000 nurses to the workforce in England by 2024-25.”

Nor the Tories. From their manifesto on their own website.
“ Extra funding for the NHS, with 50,000 more nurses and 50 million more GP surgery appointments a year.”

well - it is an additional - just with some added through retention rather than new entry ...

That will be the facts, but it is not how they are being sold.

yes - it's one upmanship and word play games - exactly why I don't like politicians - speak it plain, simple and straight so we can (finally) believe what you're saying.

rjsterry

rick_chasey said:

Taylor Swift fan?

Two daughters, 10 and 8. Reputation on repeat for the whole 3.5hr journey to visit grandparents. You either find a way to enjoy it or...

surrey_commuter

slowbike said:

pblakeney said:

slowbike said:

pblakeney said:

To be fair, the BBC aren’t Helping.
“The Conservative manifesto pledges to add 50,000 nurses to the workforce in England by 2024-25.”

Nor the Tories. From their manifesto on their own website.
“ Extra funding for the NHS, with 50,000 more nurses and 50 million more GP surgery appointments a year.”

well - it is an additional - just with some added through retention rather than new entry ...

That will be the facts, but it is not how they are being sold.

yes - it's one upmanship and word play games - exactly why I don't like politicians - speak it plain, simple and straight so we can (finally) believe what you're saying.

“The Conservative manifesto pledges to add 50,000 nurses to the workforce in England by 2024-25.”

that is not upmanship or word play games that is a lie. As spending on improving retention is a good thing it makes you wonder why they felt the need to lie. Is their audience really too thick to understand anything that does not translate into a big number on the side of a bus?

rick_chasey

rjsterry said:

rick_chasey said:

Taylor Swift fan?

Two daughters, 10 and 8. Reputation on repeat for the whole 3.5hr journey to visit grandparents. You either find a way to enjoy it or...

Just shake it off.

rjsterry

surrey_commuter said:

slowbike said:

pblakeney said:

slowbike said:

pblakeney said:

To be fair, the BBC aren’t Helping.
“The Conservative manifesto pledges to add 50,000 nurses to the workforce in England by 2024-25.”

Nor the Tories. From their manifesto on their own website.
“ Extra funding for the NHS, with 50,000 more nurses and 50 million more GP surgery appointments a year.”

well - it is an additional - just with some added through retention rather than new entry ...

That will be the facts, but it is not how they are being sold.

yes - it's one upmanship and word play games - exactly why I don't like politicians - speak it plain, simple and straight so we can (finally) believe what you're saying.

“The Conservative manifesto pledges to add 50,000 nurses to the workforce in England by 2024-25.”

that is not upmanship or word play games that is a lie. As spending on improving retention is a good thing it makes you wonder why they felt the need to lie. Is their audience really too thick to understand anything that does not translate into a big number on the side of a bus?

Best not mention the 6 hospitals that will be upgraded and the 34 that trusts will have a think about but may never build.

rjsterry

If the BBC and Labour are being accused of misrepresentation, why on page 2 of the manifesto, under the heading "My Guarantee", does it say, "I guarantee:
• Extra funding for the NHS, with 50,000 more nurses and 50 million
more GP surgery appointments a year."

Is there some other version that Hancock was working from?

kingstongraham

How do you get from 280,000 to 330,000 without there being 50,000 more nurses?

I understand it isn't 50,000 NEW nurses, but if that's not what the manifesto says, then where's the deception by the Tories? Sounds like an aspiration rather than a realistic plan, but not the worst of those in the manifesto.

kingstongraham

I mean, other than ignoring the economic impact of their Brexit policy, there's "On social care, the party restricts itself to a broad ambition to find a solution to guarantee that no one has to sell their home to pay for care." Expensive and difficult, so they've effectively ignored it.