BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

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  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,545
    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    Where you see borrowing money to improve the economy I see a a bunch of charlatans borrowing money to buy power for themselves.

    I do think that you are very susceptible to group think. Economics is not a science so something being mainstream does not make it right.

    Yeah I think it's fair to say I tend to buy into the current academic consensus on things. That's partly because I believe in things like this, more often than not, it's right.

    In this specific instance I think there is overwhelming evidence that your approach is disadvantageous fwiw.

    My approach is to apply commonsense to the current consensus. This obviously only works in areas where you have a great enough understanding to apply your own logic
    An alarm should go off every time someone invokes common sense. It's usually a sign that they can't actually justify their position by other means. I'm sure politicians do want to buy power; that doesn't mean that whatever policy can't also improve the economy in some way. It might; it might not irrespective of the political motive.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    rjsterry said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    Where you see borrowing money to improve the economy I see a a bunch of charlatans borrowing money to buy power for themselves.

    I do think that you are very susceptible to group think. Economics is not a science so something being mainstream does not make it right.

    Yeah I think it's fair to say I tend to buy into the current academic consensus on things. That's partly because I believe in things like this, more often than not, it's right.

    In this specific instance I think there is overwhelming evidence that your approach is disadvantageous fwiw.

    My approach is to apply commonsense to the current consensus. This obviously only works in areas where you have a great enough understanding to apply your own logic
    An alarm should go off every time someone invokes common sense. It's usually a sign that they can't actually justify their position by other means. I'm sure politicians do want to buy power; that doesn't mean that whatever policy can't also improve the economy in some way. It might; it might not irrespective of the political motive.
    you set your alarm to go off when you hear commonsense and I will set mine to go off when I hear that debt does not matter.

    I believe that you are in construction - you must hear experts and politicians sucking people into ludicrous suggestions on how to make the housing market perfect. You must be able to see that the unforseen consequences were eminently forseeable.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    Where you see borrowing money to improve the economy I see a a bunch of charlatans borrowing money to buy power for themselves.

    I do think that you are very susceptible to group think. Economics is not a science so something being mainstream does not make it right.

    Yeah I think it's fair to say I tend to buy into the current academic consensus on things. That's partly because I believe in things like this, more often than not, it's right.

    In this specific instance I think there is overwhelming evidence that your approach is disadvantageous fwiw.

    My approach is to apply commonsense to the current consensus. This obviously only works in areas where you have a great enough understanding to apply your own logic
    I think everyone has a different understanding of what common sense is.
    _
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,545
    surrey_commuter said:

    rjsterry said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    Where you see borrowing money to improve the economy I see a a bunch of charlatans borrowing money to buy power for themselves.

    I do think that you are very susceptible to group think. Economics is not a science so something being mainstream does not make it right.

    Yeah I think it's fair to say I tend to buy into the current academic consensus on things. That's partly because I believe in things like this, more often than not, it's right.

    In this specific instance I think there is overwhelming evidence that your approach is disadvantageous fwiw.

    My approach is to apply commonsense to the current consensus. This obviously only works in areas where you have a great enough understanding to apply your own logic
    An alarm should go off every time someone invokes common sense. It's usually a sign that they can't actually justify their position by other means. I'm sure politicians do want to buy power; that doesn't mean that whatever policy can't also improve the economy in some way. It might; it might not irrespective of the political motive.
    you set your alarm to go off when you hear commonsense and I will set mine to go off when I hear that debt does not matter.

    I believe that you are in construction - you must hear experts and politicians sucking people into ludicrous suggestions on how to make the housing market perfect. You must be able to see that the unforseen consequences were eminently forseeable.
    There you go, straight to the extreme. I'm not sure what your point is about the construction industry. Either a consequence is foreseeable or it isn't. Sometimes foreseeable consequences are ignored or dismissed if that's what you mean. That there might be something you haven't thought of is not an argument to do nothing, it just means you need to investigate further.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    surrey_commuter said:

    rjsterry said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    Where you see borrowing money to improve the economy I see a a bunch of charlatans borrowing money to buy power for themselves.

    I do think that you are very susceptible to group think. Economics is not a science so something being mainstream does not make it right.

    Yeah I think it's fair to say I tend to buy into the current academic consensus on things. That's partly because I believe in things like this, more often than not, it's right.

    In this specific instance I think there is overwhelming evidence that your approach is disadvantageous fwiw.

    My approach is to apply commonsense to the current consensus. This obviously only works in areas where you have a great enough understanding to apply your own logic
    An alarm should go off every time someone invokes common sense. It's usually a sign that they can't actually justify their position by other means. I'm sure politicians do want to buy power; that doesn't mean that whatever policy can't also improve the economy in some way. It might; it might not irrespective of the political motive.
    you set your alarm to go off when you hear commonsense and I will set mine to go off when I hear that debt does not matter.

    I believe that you are in construction - you must hear experts and politicians sucking people into ludicrous suggestions on how to make the housing market perfect. You must be able to see that the unforseen consequences were eminently forseeable.
    The latest Corbyn pledge of 100,000 new homes a year within the next 5 years being a prime example. We're currently building about 150,000 a year in total so within 5 years we're somehow going to find the land, skills and resources to allow that to increase by 66%. Is he planning radical changes to planning to speed the process up or maybe he's going to nationalise house building and simply make two thirds of all new homes Council houses?
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,545
    I read an assessment of this policy yesterday that thought the hiusebuilders probably could scale up their side, and £10bn for 100,000 homes @ £100,000 each was realistic but availability of land with planning consent was the main bottleneck.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • mr_goo
    mr_goo Posts: 3,770
    rjsterry said:

    I read an assessment of this policy yesterday that thought the hiusebuilders probably could scale up their side, and £10bn for 100,000 homes @ £100,000 each was realistic but availability of land with planning consent was the main bottleneck.

    Is that £100k for an actual house or a 1 bed tenement flat?
    I live in an area where a Cr4ppy beach hut sells for £20k. And the good beach huts at Mudeford for £270k.
    So an actual bricks and mortar house for £100k is never likely.
    Unless Corbyn thinks that all those seeking a new house are going to migrate to the north east and live on redeveloped old industrial sites.
    A ludicrous and undeliverable policy. Not withstanding the obvious that's already pointed out. There aren't enough people to build them anyway.
    Always be yourself, unless you can be Aaron Rodgers....Then always be Aaron Rodgers.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    mr_goo said:

    rjsterry said:

    . Not withstanding the obvious that's already pointed out. There aren't enough people to build them anyway.

    There's a solution to that but I don't think you'd be in favour of it.
    _
  • mr_goo
    mr_goo Posts: 3,770
    rick_chasey said:

    mr_goo said:

    rjsterry said:

    . Not withstanding the obvious that's already pointed out. There aren't enough people to build them anyway.

    There's a solution to that but I don't think you'd be in favour of it.
    Would that be something to do with not removing a star from that awful blue flag?
    Always be yourself, unless you can be Aaron Rodgers....Then always be Aaron Rodgers.
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,545
    That's build cost, not sale price. The cost of building the £20K beach hut is maybe 10% of that. Obviously a one-off detached house will cost more than £100K but if you are building 100,000 homes, then you definitely could get the cost per home down to around that figure.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,320
    edited November 2019
    mr_goo said:

    rjsterry said:

    I read an assessment of this policy yesterday that thought the hiusebuilders probably could scale up their side, and £10bn for 100,000 homes @ £100,000 each was realistic but availability of land with planning consent was the main bottleneck.

    Is that £100k for an actual house or a 1 bed tenement flat?
    I live in an area where a Cr4ppy beach hut sells for £20k. And the good beach huts at Mudeford for £270k.
    So an actual bricks and mortar house for £100k is never likely.
    Unless Corbyn thinks that all those seeking a new house are going to migrate to the north east and live on redeveloped old industrial sites.
    A ludicrous and undeliverable policy. Not withstanding the obvious that's already pointed out. There aren't enough people to build them anyway.
    Just proves that there is nowt so q-u-e-e-r* as folks.

    Has Brexit chased all the builders back home?

    *Annoyed that standard phrases are being labelled as swear words. "Strange or odd from a conventional viewpoint; unusually different; singular."
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    rjsterry said:

    I read an assessment of this policy yesterday that thought the hiusebuilders probably could scale up their side, and £10bn for 100,000 homes @ £100,000 each was realistic but availability of land with planning consent was the main bottleneck.

    Interesting as it implies (in my simplistic view) that there is a significant amount of the qualified trades currently out of work or not at full capacity if capacity can increase by 66% in 5 years. Land and planning will always be an issue though and even at the present rate I've rarely seen a potential site where someone doesn't claim it is the 'wrong place'. Lots of high density, high rise blocks of flats like the post war attempts at social engineering?
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,545
    Funny; up in London everyone moans about high rise flats being only aimed at wealthy investors.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    edited November 2019
    mr_goo said:


    Would that be something to do with not removing a star from that awful blue flag?

    I always got the impression you were fairly anti-immigration/immigrant.
    _
  • Longshot
    Longshot Posts: 940
    pblakeney said:

    Has Brexit chased all the builders back home?

    There haven't been enough skilled trades for years. Nothing to do with Brexit.
    You can fool some of the people all of the time. Concentrate on those people.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,320
    longshot said:

    pblakeney said:

    Has Brexit chased all the builders back home?

    There haven't been enough skilled trades for years. Nothing to do with Brexit.
    But, will it help?
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,147
    longshot said:

    pblakeney said:

    Has Brexit chased all the builders back home?

    There haven't been enough skilled trades for years. Nothing to do with Brexit.
    You don't think Brexit is having/will have an effect on skilled workers in the building trade?

  • Longshot
    Longshot Posts: 940
    kingstongraham said:

    longshot said:

    pblakeney said:

    Has Brexit chased all the builders back home?

    There haven't been enough skilled trades for years. Nothing to do with Brexit.
    You don't think Brexit is having/will have an effect on skilled workers in the building trade?

    Brexit may make the issue worse but it's not the root cause.

    You can fool some of the people all of the time. Concentrate on those people.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    longshot said:

    pblakeney said:

    Has Brexit chased all the builders back home?

    There haven't been enough skilled trades for years. Nothing to do with Brexit.
    Yes, but immigration from the likes of Poland at the start of the century helped plug the gaps (as well as possibly being a key factor in the Brexit referendum even happening). Understandably many of those are feeling unwelcome and are heading back home so the shortage of skilled trades will become greater. It will be good for those in the trade though as they'll be able to name their price with a perfect storm of shortage of supply and demand for their skills. They'll be able to then retire early to Spain and leave even more of a shortage. Finding a plumber / electrician to do a simple bit of maintenance could be fun.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,147
    Why do the parties think that because it's online, it's ok to do any old pony?

  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,389
    Pross said:

    longshot said:

    pblakeney said:

    Has Brexit chased all the builders back home?

    There haven't been enough skilled trades for years. Nothing to do with Brexit.
    Yes, but immigration from the likes of Poland at the start of the century helped plug the gaps (as well as possibly being a key factor in the Brexit referendum even happening). Understandably many of those are feeling unwelcome and are heading back home so the shortage of skilled trades will become greater. It will be good for those in the trade though as they'll be able to name their price with a perfect storm of shortage of supply and demand for their skills. They'll be able to then retire early to Spain and leave even more of a shortage. Finding a plumber / electrician to do a simple bit of maintenance could be fun.
    Although if prices go up sufficiently then there will be more skilled trades attracted back/into the trade - supply and demand etc.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Longshot
    Longshot Posts: 940
    Stevo_666 said:

    Pross said:

    longshot said:

    pblakeney said:

    Has Brexit chased all the builders back home?

    There haven't been enough skilled trades for years. Nothing to do with Brexit.
    Yes, but immigration from the likes of Poland at the start of the century helped plug the gaps (as well as possibly being a key factor in the Brexit referendum even happening). Understandably many of those are feeling unwelcome and are heading back home so the shortage of skilled trades will become greater. It will be good for those in the trade though as they'll be able to name their price with a perfect storm of shortage of supply and demand for their skills. They'll be able to then retire early to Spain and leave even more of a shortage. Finding a plumber / electrician to do a simple bit of maintenance could be fun.
    Although if prices go up sufficiently then there will be more skilled trades attracted back/into the trade - supply and demand etc.
    Prices have been high for a long time and there's still been shortage of skilled labour/trades. Sometimes the basics of supply and demand are defeated by other factors (don't ask me what they are though as I don't know).
    You can fool some of the people all of the time. Concentrate on those people.
  • Longshot
    Longshot Posts: 940
    Pross said:

    longshot said:

    pblakeney said:

    Has Brexit chased all the builders back home?

    There haven't been enough skilled trades for years. Nothing to do with Brexit.
    Yes, but immigration from the likes of Poland at the start of the century helped plug the gaps (as well as possibly being a key factor in the Brexit referendum even happening). Understandably many of those are feeling unwelcome and are heading back home so the shortage of skilled trades will become greater. It will be good for those in the trade though as they'll be able to name their price with a perfect storm of shortage of supply and demand for their skills. They'll be able to then retire early to Spain and leave even more of a shortage. Finding a plumber / electrician to do a simple bit of maintenance could be fun.
    Yes but... that doesn't negate my point that the shortage of trades is not caused by Brexit. Worsened, yes, but not caused.
    You can fool some of the people all of the time. Concentrate on those people.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    edited November 2019
    Stevo_666 said:

    Pross said:

    longshot said:

    pblakeney said:

    Has Brexit chased all the builders back home?

    There haven't been enough skilled trades for years. Nothing to do with Brexit.
    Yes, but immigration from the likes of Poland at the start of the century helped plug the gaps (as well as possibly being a key factor in the Brexit referendum even happening). Understandably many of those are feeling unwelcome and are heading back home so the shortage of skilled trades will become greater. It will be good for those in the trade though as they'll be able to name their price with a perfect storm of shortage of supply and demand for their skills. They'll be able to then retire early to Spain and leave even more of a shortage. Finding a plumber / electrician to do a simple bit of maintenance could be fun.
    Although if prices go up sufficiently then there will be more skilled trades attracted back/into the trade - supply and demand etc.
    mmm up to a point. Cambridge has had a shortage of plumbers for 20 years - they charge through the nose and the supply hasn't really gone up. Principally because most people don't want to spend their working day elbow deep in other people's sh!t and pIss.

    There's also the affordability factor - a lot of people just won't pay for those services if they're too spenny - demand reduces with supply after all.
    _
  • mr_goo
    mr_goo Posts: 3,770
    rick_chasey said:

    mr_goo said:


    Would that be something to do with not removing a star from that awful blue flag?

    I always got the impression you were fairly anti-immigration/immigrant.
    Not ever been anti immigration or immigrant.
    I'm proud that UK is a safe haven for those in need or can bring something to the table. Many of my clients are from all corners of the world, some having fled awful regimes.
    But even they would say you cant have a permanent
    open door, otherwise the whole system would collapse.
    Always be yourself, unless you can be Aaron Rodgers....Then always be Aaron Rodgers.
  • john80
    john80 Posts: 2,965
    My dad was a professional project manager building anything from office blocks to 100 house developments. He has built his last two houses and the latest a fairly modest retirement home in Scotland was around 80k in build cost excluding land and he did all the project management and a lot of the labour himself. 100k for a house including the land seems fanciful at best even on a mass development scale as those type of developments get hit with infrastructure costs that single house builds do not. Yet another political aim based entirely on positive thinking.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    john80 said:

    My dad was a professional project manager building anything from office blocks to 100 house developments. He has built his last two houses and the latest a fairly modest retirement home in Scotland was around 80k in build cost excluding land and he did all the project management and a lot of the labour himself. 100k for a house including the land seems fanciful at best even on a mass development scale as those type of developments get hit with infrastructure costs that single house builds do not. Yet another political aim based entirely on positive thinking.

    I was told recently how much one of the volume builders spends on a house excluding land, I can't remember the number but it was shockingly low, certainly well under £100k. A lot of them are going timber frame and I reckon if there really was a major push on building Council housing then a lot of it would be prefabricated modular construction which would really get the costs down and reduce the amount of work required by traditional trades on site.
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,545
    The next phase of a development on my doorstep has recently started. On my way to the station this morning I had to wait for a lorry backing into the site. On the back were 20-30 prefabricated internal walls. Already boarded on one face and probably pre-drilled for services.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • Longshot
    Longshot Posts: 940
    Pross said:

    A lot of them are going timber frame and I reckon if there really was a major push on building Council housing then a lot of it would be prefabricated modular construction which would really get the costs down and reduce the amount of work required by traditional trades on site.

    It's about time too. Modular building methods are becoming more and more sophisticated and answer a lot of the issues we have in getting sufficient houses built quickly, except for the biggest... planning.
    You can fool some of the people all of the time. Concentrate on those people.
  • bompington
    bompington Posts: 7,674
    Bit OT but a lot of people don't know that timber-framed is the norm in Scotland - almost all new houses have been for decades.
    It surprised me quite a lot the last time we remortgaged, and a lot of banks wouldn't give us a mortgage because of it.

    Mrs Bomp and I have looked at self building in the past (and may yet do it in the future) and the range of methods / technologies available is so far ahead of the current standards, it's ridiculous. I presume money is the main reason for slow uptake, but some of the new techniques should actually be way cheaper, especially if the big builders developed them with economies of scale.

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