BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

darkhairedlord

KingstonGraham wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

Laura Kuenssberg
‏Verified account @bbclaurak

1. PM spoke to Merkel at 8am this morning - No 10 source says she said there could only be a deal if Northern Ireland stays in Customs Union, if not, then deal is 'overwhelmingly unlikely'

So permanent backstop is the only deal being offered. Not a great look, but I imagine that feelings on this will be split two ways as usual.

They don't trust Boris.

Also, does it make clear that only a permanent backstop is being offered? That quote just says in the CU.

It's all getting a bit Vicky Pollard

TheBigBean

KingstonGraham wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

Laura Kuenssberg
‏Verified account @bbclaurak

1. PM spoke to Merkel at 8am this morning - No 10 source says she said there could only be a deal if Northern Ireland stays in Customs Union, if not, then deal is 'overwhelmingly unlikely'

So permanent backstop is the only deal being offered. Not a great look, but I imagine that feelings on this will be split two ways as usual.

They don't trust Boris.

Also, does it make clear that only a permanent backstop is being offered? That quote just says in the CU.

Are they not largely one and the same?

The backstop was billed as a thing of last resort once all other avenues had been explored, but it is becoming increasingly clear that it is the only option that is acceptable to the EU.

Meanwhile in terms of trust. The no. 10 source also says

Varadkar was keen on talking before the Benn Act when he thought that the choice would be ‘new deal or no deal’. Since the Benn Act passed he has gone very cold and in the last week the official channels and the backchannels have also gone cold. Varadkar has also gone back on his commitments — he said if we moved on manufactured goods then he would also move but instead he just attacked us publicly. It’s clear he wants to gamble on a second referendum.

briantrumpet

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Imagine that you start with a blank piece of paper, the Govt has spent all of it's money and has permission to borrow £2bn, what would you spend it on?

ending fuel poverty?
helping the homeless?
investing in high tech industries?
give it away to some of the richest people in (or not) the country because they are farmers?

This is getting amusingly close to the £350m per week claim of Leave. All you left out was the NHS.

If you want a model of how leaving things to 'the market' works out, look at the difference between US healthcare and the NHS: the NHS might be ideologically 'less pure', and full of messy compromise, but in terms of overall outcomes and cost of treatment, it wins hands down.

rjsterry

KingstonGraham wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

Laura Kuenssberg
‏Verified account @bbclaurak

1. PM spoke to Merkel at 8am this morning - No 10 source says she said there could only be a deal if Northern Ireland stays in Customs Union, if not, then deal is 'overwhelmingly unlikely'

So permanent backstop is the only deal being offered. Not a great look, but I imagine that feelings on this will be split two ways as usual.

They don't trust Boris.

Also, does it make clear that only a permanent backstop is being offered? That quote just says in the CU.

Also the negotiations were never intended to secure a deal. They are a sham to engineer a "Boris vs. Parliament" scenario for a GE.

rjsterry

TheBigBean wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

Laura Kuenssberg
‏Verified account @bbclaurak

1. PM spoke to Merkel at 8am this morning - No 10 source says she said there could only be a deal if Northern Ireland stays in Customs Union, if not, then deal is 'overwhelmingly unlikely'

So permanent backstop is the only deal being offered. Not a great look, but I imagine that feelings on this will be split two ways as usual.

They don't trust Boris.

Also, does it make clear that only a permanent backstop is being offered? That quote just says in the CU.

Are they not largely one and the same?

The backstop was billed as a thing of last resort once all other avenues had been explored, but it is becoming increasingly clear that it is the only option that is acceptable to the EU.

Meanwhile in terms of trust. The no. 10 source also says

Varadkar was keen on talking before the Benn Act when he thought that the choice would be ‘new deal or no deal’. Since the Benn Act passed he has gone very cold and in the last week the official channels and the backchannels have also gone cold. Varadkar has also gone back on his commitments — he said if we moved on manufactured goods then he would also move but instead he just attacked us publicly. It’s clear he wants to gamble on a second referendum.

Can't believe you're quoting Cummings as a reputable source on negotiations which he has openly stated are a sham.

briantrumpet

TheBigBean wrote:

You should probably separate farmers and landowners in your analysis. The farmers don't make much money.

It's easy to become a farmer, anyway. If you've got £1m, buy yourself a farm, work your socks off, and you might just make a small profit.

Curiously, most people would choose other ways to invest £1m.

haydenm

briantrumpet wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Imagine that you start with a blank piece of paper, the Govt has spent all of it's money and has permission to borrow £2bn, what would you spend it on?

ending fuel poverty?
helping the homeless?
investing in high tech industries?
give it away to some of the richest people in (or not) the country because they are farmers?

This is getting amusingly close to the £350m per week claim of Leave. All you left out was the NHS.

If you want a model of how leaving things to 'the market' works out, look at the difference between US healthcare and the NHS: the NHS might be ideologically 'less pure', and full of messy compromise, but in terms of overall outcomes and cost of treatment, it wins hands down.

The US has a particularly poor system, no one would suggest that but there are plenty of systems which work fine with a bit of sensible control. Absolutely not suggesting we lose the NHS though as they do a great job and that graph highlights how cheap it is/was too

haydenm

briantrumpet wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

You should probably separate farmers and landowners in your analysis. The farmers don't make much money.

It's easy to become a farmer, anyway. If you've got £1m, buy yourself a farm, work your socks off, and you might just make a small profit.

Curiously, most people would choose other ways to invest £1m.

Some people buy £1m pound farms to avoid inheritance tax which skews everything away from people who actually want to farm. When you're competing against the lose of inheritance tax it doesn't even need to break even

TheBigBean

rjsterry wrote:

Can't believe you're quoting Cummings as a reputable source on negotiations which he has openly stated are a sham.

It's fine for you to quote the same source, but I am not allowed?

rjsterry

TheBigBean wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Can't believe you're quoting Cummings as a reputable source on negotiations which he has openly stated are a sham.

It's fine for you to quote the same source, but I am not allowed?

You can quote whatever you like. If I didn't make it clear I was suggesting the Cummings quote was ridiculous. It would be like me quoting Jo Swinson as evidence that revoking A50 was a possibility. We both know that Johnson never had any intention of putting a realistic deal to the EU and likewise the EU were pretending to consider it seriously to be polite and to try to deflect some of the inevitable blame for extending the process once again. This is all just a show.

surrey_commuter

without one of the incarnations of Coopster either fuming or gloating I am at a bit of a loss as to whether this is good or bad news

TheBigBean

rjsterry wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Can't believe you're quoting Cummings as a reputable source on negotiations which he has openly stated are a sham.

It's fine for you to quote the same source, but I am not allowed?

You can quote whatever you like. If I didn't make it clear I was suggesting the Cummings quote was ridiculous. We both know that Johnson never had any intention of putting a realistic deal to the EU and likewise the EU were pretending to consider it seriously to be polite and to try to deflect some of the inevitable blame for extending the process once again. This is all just a show.

I did not know this, because I did not believe it to be the case.

tailwindhome

TheBigBean wrote:

Laura Kuenssberg
‏Verified account @bbclaurak

1. PM spoke to Merkel at 8am this morning - No 10 source says she said there could only be a deal if Northern Ireland stays in Customs Union, if not, then deal is 'overwhelmingly unlikely'

So permanent backstop is the only deal being offered. Not a great look, but I imagine that feelings on this will be split two ways as usual.

My feelings are that it doesn't smell right.

TheBigBean

TailWindHome wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

Laura Kuenssberg
‏Verified account @bbclaurak

1. PM spoke to Merkel at 8am this morning - No 10 source says she said there could only be a deal if Northern Ireland stays in Customs Union, if not, then deal is 'overwhelmingly unlikely'

So permanent backstop is the only deal being offered. Not a great look, but I imagine that feelings on this will be split two ways as usual.

My feelings are that it doesn't smell right.

Arlene has jumped on it, but presumably Merkel will clarify it later if it is a misrepresentation.

rjsterry

TheBigBean wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Can't believe you're quoting Cummings as a reputable source on negotiations which he has openly stated are a sham.

It's fine for you to quote the same source, but I am not allowed?

You can quote whatever you like. If I didn't make it clear I was suggesting the Cummings quote was ridiculous. We both know that Johnson never had any intention of putting a realistic deal to the EU and likewise the EU were pretending to consider it seriously to be polite and to try to deflect some of the inevitable blame for extending the process once again. This is all just a show.

I did not know this, because I did not believe it to be the case.

Fair enough. It's been pretty widely reported that Cummings thought the negotiations were a sham. A second piece of evidence is Johnson claiming that the EU hadn't given him detailed reasons why the proposal was unacceptable when those reasons were already in the public domain.

TheBigBean

rjsterry wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Can't believe you're quoting Cummings as a reputable source on negotiations which he has openly stated are a sham.

It's fine for you to quote the same source, but I am not allowed?

You can quote whatever you like. If I didn't make it clear I was suggesting the Cummings quote was ridiculous. We both know that Johnson never had any intention of putting a realistic deal to the EU and likewise the EU were pretending to consider it seriously to be polite and to try to deflect some of the inevitable blame for extending the process once again. This is all just a show.

I did not know this, because I did not believe it to be the case.

Fair enough. It's been pretty widely reported that Cummings thought the negotiations were a sham. A second piece of evidence is Johnson claiming that the EU hadn't given him detailed reasons why the proposal was unacceptable when those reasons were already in the public domain.

I interpreted the sham part to mean that they were waiting for the key people to make a decision, so there wasn't much to discuss. People downing tools in this way is fairly common in my experience in negotiations, but that doesn't look good to the public hence the sham negotiations.

rjsterry

TailWindHome wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

Laura Kuenssberg
‏Verified account @bbclaurak

1. PM spoke to Merkel at 8am this morning - No 10 source says she said there could only be a deal if Northern Ireland stays in Customs Union, if not, then deal is 'overwhelmingly unlikely'

So permanent backstop is the only deal being offered. Not a great look, but I imagine that feelings on this will be split two ways as usual.

My feelings are that it doesn't smell right.

You're not the only one. AFP's Berlin correspondent.

Deborah Cole
(@doberah)
There is so much of this that reads wrong: "Merkel showed the EU has adopted a new position", "no problem", "must stay in full alignment forever". This is pure Johnson blame game. Waiting for readout from Merkel's office... https://t.co/Si5Joaxq4g

October 8, 2019

tailwindhome

Interesting interjection from the Sec of State for NI (presumably in response to the Spectator Cummings article)

Julian Smith MP
@JulianSmithUK
I am clear that any threat on withdrawing security cooperation with Ireland is unacceptable. This is not in the interest of NI or the Union.

rjsterry

TailWindHome wrote:

Interesting interjection from the Sec of State for NI (presumably in response to the Spectator Cummings article)

Julian Smith MP
@JulianSmithUK
I am clear that any threat on withdrawing security cooperation with Ireland is unacceptable. This is not in the interest of NI or the Union.

The whole Spectator quote is so transparently bulls*** you wonder who they are trying to kid. Or rather what they are trying to distract from.

rjsterry

Standby for resignations.

darkhairedlord

rjsterry wrote:

Standby for resignations.

I'm not sure why? they pretty much all stood there and backed him for leadership, they all knew what he was like, they are all complicit.

pblakeney

Surrey Commuter wrote:

...higher food prices are a regressive tax hitting the poor disproportionately hard...

If only there were a way to link food supply to lower prices.
Maybe subsidies?

rjsterry

darkhairedlord wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Standby for resignations.

I'm not sure why? they pretty much all stood there and backed him for leadership, they all knew what he was like, they are all complicit.

But he promised them he was going for a deal. It's the lies you tell yourself that get you.

Longshot

rjsterry wrote:

darkhairedlord wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Standby for resignations.

I'm not sure why? they pretty much all stood there and backed him for leadership, they all knew what he was like, they are all complicit.

But he promised them he was going for a deal. It's the lies you tell yourself that get you.

But he HAS gone for a deal. It's just that the dastardly Euros won't be reasonable and accept his proposals that's the problem. He's done his bit.

TheBigBean

One random hypothesis is that this was Merkel putting pressure on other EU member states.

rjsterry

TheBigBean wrote:

One random hypothesis is that this was Merkel putting pressure on other EU member states.

Did that statement from no. 10 sound to you remotely like the sort of thing Merkel would say?

They might as well have held up a note in Johnson's own handwriting and claimed they'd received it from Merkel.

Stevo_666

rjsterry wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

One random hypothesis is that this was Merkel putting pressure on other EU member states.

Did that statement from no. 10 sound to you remotely like the sort of thing Merkel would say?

They might as well have held up a note in Johnson's own handwriting and claimed they'd received it from Merkel.

Agree, this is very much not Merkel's (or Germany's) style when it comes to Brexit and public communications. They have been pretty diplomatic and careful not to 'stir things up'.

However regardless of who said what we are yet to see any sign of the EU budging on anything. As BB mentions above, if this does have any basis, could it be German trying to put pressure on other member states to shift? Let's see what if anything Germany says in response to this.

darkhairedlord

Stevo 666 wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

One random hypothesis is that this was Merkel putting pressure on other EU member states.

Did that statement from no. 10 sound to you remotely like the sort of thing Merkel would say?

They might as well have held up a note in Johnson's own handwriting and claimed they'd received it from Merkel.

Agree, this is very much not Merkel's (or Germany's) style when it comes to Brexit and public communications. They have been pretty diplomatic and careful not to 'stir things up'.

However regardless of who said what we are yet to see any sign of the EU budging on anything. As BB mentions above, if this does have any basis, could it be German trying to put pressure on other member states to shift? Let's see what if anything Germany says in response to this.

The least believable thing is that Boris would be out of bed before 08:00 to take a phone call.

rjsterry

Stevo 666 wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

One random hypothesis is that this was Merkel putting pressure on other EU member states.

Did that statement from no. 10 sound to you remotely like the sort of thing Merkel would say?

They might as well have held up a note in Johnson's own handwriting and claimed they'd received it from Merkel.

Agree, this is very much not Merkel's (or Germany's) style when it comes to Brexit and public communications. They have been pretty diplomatic and careful not to 'stir things up'.

However regardless of who said what we are yet to see any sign of the EU budging on anything. As BB mentions above, if this does have any basis, could it be German trying to put pressure on other member states to shift? Let's see what if anything Germany says in response to this.

You really think Johnson's proposals were a sincere attempt to reach a compromise? I think this is all just a prelude to a manufactured showdown in parliament, an A50 extension and a GE. It'll be months before there is any significant movement on resolving Brexit.

Stevo_666

darkhairedlord wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

One random hypothesis is that this was Merkel putting pressure on other EU member states.

Did that statement from no. 10 sound to you remotely like the sort of thing Merkel would say?

They might as well have held up a note in Johnson's own handwriting and claimed they'd received it from Merkel.

Agree, this is very much not Merkel's (or Germany's) style when it comes to Brexit and public communications. They have been pretty diplomatic and careful not to 'stir things up'.

However regardless of who said what we are yet to see any sign of the EU budging on anything. As BB mentions above, if this does have any basis, could it be German trying to put pressure on other member states to shift? Let's see what if anything Germany says in response to this.

The least believable thing is that Boris would be out of bed before 08:00 to take a phone call.

It's good to see that the disregard for facts and objectivity so common in UK politics these days hasn't spread to Cake Stop