BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

rjsterry

Stevo_666 said:

kingstongraham said:

Why would you annualise that number? It gets cold in winter, you know?

Point is, it is not a trivial number when looked at over time. Would you not agree?

Same point to Brian and Pross.

No. In the context of overall immigration it is very small. We handle it badly, which makes it a bigger problem than it needs to be.

The number of successful asylum applications a year is less than 10,000.

Trying to stop people drowning in the Channel is a good thing. Trying to break up the trafficking gangs is good, too. Making out that it is some unstoppable flood of people that we 'can't' handle is just ridiculous.

kingstongraham

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Of course, you could have tried starting out by talking about trends, rather than picking one particularly high day and extrapolating a silly figure, and had a more nuanced discussion.

Yes, the trend is upwards. No-one's said otherwise.

OK so we've established the upward trend. Now explain why it's a good thing as I asked above.

Nobody thinks it's a good thing that lots of people risk their lives crossing the channel in unsafe boats.

Ben6899

Stevo_666 said:

Does also show how minor the whinges have become.

Ahem, it cost me £200 to bring our cat to Germany.

Oh and the price of the timber needed for some new stud walls in our flat… has doubled (although that might be COVID- and sudden demand-related?)

kingstongraham

I guess the refugee thing is in here because brexit means we withdrew from the agreement that allows us to remove people to another EU country?

TheBigBean

kingstongraham said:

I guess the refugee thing is in here because brexit means we withdrew from the agreement that allows us to remove people to another EU country?

In the same way that the EU was blamed for lots of things that weren't necessarily its fault now Brexit is being blamed in a similar way.

kingstongraham

TheBigBean said:

kingstongraham said:

I guess the refugee thing is in here because brexit means we withdrew from the agreement that allows us to remove people to another EU country?

In the same way that the EU was blamed for lots of things that weren't necessarily its fault now Brexit is being blamed in a similar way.

Also, when people say that brexit has made problems more difficult, that is interpreted as blaming brexit for the whole problem.

rick_chasey

kingstongraham said:

I guess the refugee thing is in here because brexit means we withdrew from the agreement that allows us to remove people to another EU country?

I was thinking the other day it's quite appropriate as there's some evidence to suggest Brexit vote was a proxy vote for anti-immigration.

TheBigBean

kingstongraham said:

TheBigBean said:

kingstongraham said:

I guess the refugee thing is in here because brexit means we withdrew from the agreement that allows us to remove people to another EU country?

In the same way that the EU was blamed for lots of things that weren't necessarily its fault now Brexit is being blamed in a similar way.

Also, when people say that brexit has made problems more difficult, that is interpreted as blaming brexit for the whole problem.

Mostly because anyone putting forward a rational argument will be quickly drowned out by extremists.

pangolin

TheBigBean said:

kingstongraham said:

TheBigBean said:

kingstongraham said:

I guess the refugee thing is in here because brexit means we withdrew from the agreement that allows us to remove people to another EU country?

In the same way that the EU was blamed for lots of things that weren't necessarily its fault now Brexit is being blamed in a similar way.

Also, when people say that brexit has made problems more difficult, that is interpreted as blaming brexit for the whole problem.

Mostly because anyone putting forward a rational argument will be quickly drowned out by extremists.

Genuinely difficult to take this seriously.

kingstongraham

TheBigBean said:

kingstongraham said:

TheBigBean said:

kingstongraham said:

I guess the refugee thing is in here because brexit means we withdrew from the agreement that allows us to remove people to another EU country?

In the same way that the EU was blamed for lots of things that weren't necessarily its fault now Brexit is being blamed in a similar way.

Also, when people say that brexit has made problems more difficult, that is interpreted as blaming brexit for the whole problem.

Mostly because anyone putting forward a rational argument will be quickly drowned out by extremists.

Extremists plus people who deliberately mischaracterise an argument by stretching it way beyond its logical conclusion.

rick_chasey

Ben6899 said:

Stevo_666 said:

Does also show how minor the whinges have become.

Ahem, it cost me £200 to bring our cat to Germany.

Oh and the price of the timber needed for some new stud walls in our flat… has doubled (although that might be COVID- and sudden demand-related?)

Timber costs are nothing to do with Brexit and everything to do with global supply chain problems AFAIK (in that it was even more acute in the US, for example)

TheBigBean

kingstongraham said:

TheBigBean said:

kingstongraham said:

TheBigBean said:

kingstongraham said:

I guess the refugee thing is in here because brexit means we withdrew from the agreement that allows us to remove people to another EU country?

In the same way that the EU was blamed for lots of things that weren't necessarily its fault now Brexit is being blamed in a similar way.

Also, when people say that brexit has made problems more difficult, that is interpreted as blaming brexit for the whole problem.

Mostly because anyone putting forward a rational argument will be quickly drowned out by extremists.

Extremists plus people who deliberately mischaracterise an argument by stretching it way beyond its logical conclusion.

Yes, I think it is inevitable in an internet discussion although I think Brexit is probably the worst subject for it.

ddraver

Where we gonna get well peng trainers from now? Mad ting, bruv!

https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1437678324055150594?s=20

surrey_commuter

rick_chasey said:

kingstongraham said:

I guess the refugee thing is in here because brexit means we withdrew from the agreement that allows us to remove people to another EU country?

I was thinking the other day it's quite appropriate as there's some evidence to suggest Brexit vote was a proxy vote for anti-immigration.

Without Brexit there would be no PM BoJo and Home Sec would not be Priti Patel, there would aslo not be an impending leadership battle with a need for potential candidates to be seen to be tough on immigration.

We have taken back control at great economic cost you can hardly sit back and say that most of the immigration is nothing to do with EU membership.

rick_chasey

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

kingstongraham said:

I guess the refugee thing is in here because brexit means we withdrew from the agreement that allows us to remove people to another EU country?

I was thinking the other day it's quite appropriate as there's some evidence to suggest Brexit vote was a proxy vote for anti-immigration.

Without Brexit there would be no PM BoJo and Home Sec would not be Priti Patel, there would aslo not be an impending leadership battle with a need for potential candidates to be seen to be tough on immigration.

We have taken back control at great economic cost you can hardly sit back and say that most of the immigration is nothing to do with EU membership.

I can't find it but there was some chart about the importance of topics to voters, and basically immigration and leaving the EU were a mirror of each other, with EU membership not very important to voters and as the vote came around, the importance grew the same amount that the importance of immigration dropped.

surrey_commuter

rick_chasey said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

kingstongraham said:

I guess the refugee thing is in here because brexit means we withdrew from the agreement that allows us to remove people to another EU country?

I was thinking the other day it's quite appropriate as there's some evidence to suggest Brexit vote was a proxy vote for anti-immigration.

Without Brexit there would be no PM BoJo and Home Sec would not be Priti Patel, there would aslo not be an impending leadership battle with a need for potential candidates to be seen to be tough on immigration.

We have taken back control at great economic cost you can hardly sit back and say that most of the immigration is nothing to do with EU membership.

I can't find it but there was some chart about the importance of topics to voters, and basically immigration and leaving the EU were a mirror of each other, with EU membership not very important to voters and as the vote came around, the importance grew the same amount that the importance of immigration dropped.

If I remember the EU never appeared in the top 6 and the Leave campaign just took them and linked them to EU membership - illegal immigration and NHS being the most obvious

john80

kingstongraham said:

I guess the refugee thing is in here because brexit means we withdrew from the agreement that allows us to remove people to another EU country?

Very rarely was the Dublin agreement used as in the main France would not let them be returned to France. There is no point in letting the leave and being lax if you have to take them back.

john80

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

kingstongraham said:

Why would you annualise that number? It gets cold in winter, you know?

Point is, it is not a trivial number when looked at over time. Would you not agree?

Same point to Brian and Pross.

No. In the context of overall immigration it is very small. We handle it badly, which makes it a bigger problem than it needs to be.

The number of successful asylum applications a year is less than 10,000.

Trying to stop people drowning in the Channel is a good thing. Trying to break up the trafficking gangs is good, too. Making out that it is some unstoppable flood of people that we 'can't' handle is just ridiculous.

You have to come up with a credible way of breaking up a trafficking gang. I have proposed a solution of processing abroad and without this you go to jail till you agree to leave. What is your credible solution as not many gangs seem to be going to jail to act as a deterrent.

As to why people get upset about people drowning. We kill more with cars every year but yet those who choose the path seem to have some special status as needing saved. Surely less than fifty deaths a year is tolerable as after all the French are hardly persecuting them. Does every sailor need saved when they know the risks they take when they set sail and accept that their ability to survive on the hope that rescue arrives is up to them.

kingstongraham

john80 said:

kingstongraham said:

I guess the refugee thing is in here because brexit means we withdrew from the agreement that allows us to remove people to another EU country?

Very rarely was the Dublin agreement used as in the main France would not let them be returned to France. There is no point in letting the leave and being lax if you have to take them back.

Oh, OK, so when there was an agreement to allow return, it didn't happen very much, and that's gone with Brexit.

Stevo_666

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Of course, you could have tried starting out by talking about trends, rather than picking one particularly high day and extrapolating a silly figure, and had a more nuanced discussion.

Yes, the trend is upwards. No-one's said otherwise.

OK so we've established the upward trend. Now explain why it's a good thing as I asked above.

Have we also established that your annualised figure was nonsense?

You missed my point above that taken over time, the numbers become substantial. Also if it is known that the UK is a soft touch when it comes to border enforcement, what do you think will happen to the numbers trying?

Stevo_666

Ben6899 said:

Stevo_666 said:

Does also show how minor the whinges have become.

Ahem, it cost me £200 to bring our cat to Germany.

Oh and the price of the timber needed for some new stud walls in our flat… has doubled (although that might be COVID- and sudden demand-related?)

A. Did your cat need a holiday? Is there also a shortage of cat sitters?

B. I take it you know that there are several factors involved in the price of materials that you mention, despite the best efforts of some to blame it all on Brexit.

kingstongraham

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Of course, you could have tried starting out by talking about trends, rather than picking one particularly high day and extrapolating a silly figure, and had a more nuanced discussion.

Yes, the trend is upwards. No-one's said otherwise.

OK so we've established the upward trend. Now explain why it's a good thing as I asked above.

Have we also established that your annualised figure was nonsense?

You missed my point above that taken over time, the numbers become substantial. Also if it is known that the UK is a soft touch when it comes to border enforcement, what do you think will happen to the numbers trying?

Won't go much higher than 300,000 per year, I reckon.

john80

kingstongraham said:

john80 said:

kingstongraham said:

I guess the refugee thing is in here because brexit means we withdrew from the agreement that allows us to remove people to another EU country?

Very rarely was the Dublin agreement used as in the main France would not let them be returned to France. There is no point in letting the leave and being lax if you have to take them back.

Oh, OK, so when there was an agreement to allow return, it didn't happen very much, and that's gone with Brexit.

So according to 2015 to 2018 home office figures we accepted 33% of requests for a return (2365 people returned) and got 7% of returns from the UK approved (1395 people left the UK). It is therefore logical to conclude that this was a very one sided arrangement and yet people don't hold other EU states to task for this. I wonder why that would be. It would seem to me that the normal remain position is we should apply the rules and if we don't it is an outrage whereas if other EU states take the Michael it is all fair play.

john80

We have removed the trailer test for post 1997 drivers this year. Who thinks this would have happened should we remained within the UK. Bit of a win for those that have not already sat this test at around £500 for training and a single test. As we all know those pre 1997 were just better drivers and deserved their 7.5T lorry and 3.5T trailer allowance.

surrey_commuter

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Of course, you could have tried starting out by talking about trends, rather than picking one particularly high day and extrapolating a silly figure, and had a more nuanced discussion.

Yes, the trend is upwards. No-one's said otherwise.

OK so we've established the upward trend. Now explain why it's a good thing as I asked above.

Have we also established that your annualised figure was nonsense?

You missed my point above that taken over time, the numbers become substantial. Also if it is known that the UK is a soft touch when it comes to border enforcement, what do you think will happen to the numbers trying?

I remain convinced that the numbers are inconsequential and that it is pure dog whistle politics for the Party membership and they end up pursuing idiotic policies as they make good photo opps.

I would totally agree that we have to make life difficult so as not to encourage people but this involves treading a fine line between treating people in a humane manner and not.

Pross

john80 said:

We have removed the trailer test for post 1997 drivers this year. Who thinks this would have happened should we remained within the UK. Bit of a win for those that have not already sat this test at around £500 for training and a single test. As we all know those pre 1997 were just better drivers and deserved their 7.5T lorry and 3.5T trailer allowance.

Wait a minute - how did we leave the UK without me noticing? Did the Government bury this during Covid?

As someone who passed their test pre-1997 I'm always amazed that I can just jump in a 7.5t truck or tow a trailer that doubles the length of my vehicle. I used to tow a horse trailer semi-regularly for a few years and certainly at the start I felt that some training and a test should have been compulsory. Luckily I'd learned the basics on a corporate Land Rover event that included an obstacle course with trailers on the back of a Range Rover (that were brand new) but even then I would find myself hoping nothing would come the other way on single lane country roads. There's no way a standard driving test prepares anyone for towing or driving a 7.5t truck so I really don't see how this is seen as a benefit.

Pross

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Of course, you could have tried starting out by talking about trends, rather than picking one particularly high day and extrapolating a silly figure, and had a more nuanced discussion.

Yes, the trend is upwards. No-one's said otherwise.

OK so we've established the upward trend. Now explain why it's a good thing as I asked above.

Have we also established that your annualised figure was nonsense?

You missed my point above that taken over time, the numbers become substantial. Also if it is known that the UK is a soft touch when it comes to border enforcement, what do you think will happen to the numbers trying?

It only becomes substantial if you assume no-one is leaving the UK (the last 18 months may have been bad for that due to Brexit restricting options and Covid preventing people emigrating further afield).

kingstongraham

Pross said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Of course, you could have tried starting out by talking about trends, rather than picking one particularly high day and extrapolating a silly figure, and had a more nuanced discussion.

Yes, the trend is upwards. No-one's said otherwise.

OK so we've established the upward trend. Now explain why it's a good thing as I asked above.

Have we also established that your annualised figure was nonsense?

You missed my point above that taken over time, the numbers become substantial. Also if it is known that the UK is a soft touch when it comes to border enforcement, what do you think will happen to the numbers trying?

It only becomes substantial if you assume no-one is leaving the UK (the last 18 months may have been bad for that due to Brexit restricting options and Covid preventing people emigrating further afield).

Has anyone checked how many of them can drive an HGV?

ddraver

Ironically, the most useful part of my bus training was the reversing bit. It would have been even moreso with a trailer (although I found a great youtube vid from Cletus the slack jawed yokel who really helped - that and spending hours in a car park practicing reversing the trailer I'm 99% sure I wasnt allowed to drive 😶).

I'll take a cheeky, free B+E Entitlement if I'm allowed tho.

monkimark

You think it is a Brexit win that loads of people can now drive large vehicles with trailers without any training? £500 is hardly a massive sum and in the current climate would probably be covered by the employer anyway.

The 1997 rule is presumably just the time that the people in charge of vehicle testing realised what a ridiculous situation it is but didn't want to immediately remove the entitlement from people who were potentially using it.
The rule was stupid in 1996 and it is stupid again now, the difference being that they have made an active decision to make the rules less safe.

I've done a bit of driving 7.5tonne trucks around a yard and a bit of driving with a trailer, the idea that I should be allowed to combine the 2 out on the roads without any other training seems entirely insane.

john80 said:

We have removed the trailer test for post 1997 drivers this year. Who thinks this would have happened should we remained within the UK. Bit of a win for those that have not already sat this test at around £500 for training and a single test. As we all know those pre 1997 were just better drivers and deserved their 7.5T lorry and 3.5T trailer allowance.