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Is my goal achievable !?

Ok to make it short , 33y old , 3 months ago i bought a road bike since then i got addicted and been riding kinda seriously 7 -13h per week since i got the bike, previously i would do some some btt sporadically.

I would like to add when i was younger i played sports seriously Handball for over 10y, This last 3,4 y ive been inactive, and i like to think i have some pretty good genetics.

The stats atm 84k at 1,87m and a RHR of 42 and MHR 190

i can hold 400W for 5m, and 300W for 20m.

Since i began 3 months ago i shed 3 kilo already dropping from 87 and gaining some power due the training. I might go as low as 75-77K in a near future.

I would like to know how high can i aim in 20m power, i love to climb , still havent do any interval training. I´ve been riding pretty hard this last months and been doing 250kms\ week.

My 20m goal is 400W with a weight around 75-77K is a 100W gain achievable ?

Sorry for my english
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Posts

  • jgsijgsi Posts: 5,038
    Achievable ... ? no one knows but with those stats already , get yourself into some local races this season.
    Sounds like you were in competitive sport before... time to get yourself back into it.
  • if you could do 400W for 20 min at 75 kgs you be domestic pro level. I think you will struggle to gain that much but never say never, you would be better to aim for small improvements say 20watt improvements over next few months, the higher the power gets the harder the improvements will be to come by.


    Also you are quite heavy for a cyclist and so although you enjoy climbing I'm not sure you should aim to target hilly races I can only do 360 for 5 mins but for you to match my W/KG you would have to be doing 470W
  • I think the advice to go racing is great: nothing like competition to drive performance. You don't say where you are based but somewhere flattish would mean your size would be an advantage.

    I don't think anyone can tell you what your power limit will be - far too many physiological factors before we even consider how you train or whether you have the necessary motivation.
    ROAD < Scott Foil HMX Di2, Volagi Liscio Di2, Jamis Renegade Elite Di2, Cube Reaction Race > ROUGH
  • okgookgo Posts: 4,368
    Possible but I doubt it.
    I did my first 20 min effort about 3 years ago now after I would say 1 year of random riding and 4 months of more training type rides and chain gangs and it was around 360w and my 5 minute was around 440w, fast forward to today and on the road bike all out I'd probably be around 400w for 20 and around 500w for five minutes. In that time I've done 10-12 hours of riding a week nearly every week, I doubt I have much more to gain. So it depends really just how untrained you are right now, but 100w is a lot if you're already at a level of fitness.

    Otherwise I tend to agree with ozzy.
    Blog on my first and now second season of proper riding/racing - www.firstseasonracing.com
  • I think big increase are possible early on, but as for an exact number? Hard to say.

    I've been riding for a few years, but only starting training seriously over 1.5 years ago, and with 10-12 hrs training a week have gone from 3.6w/kg to 4.7w/kg (cp 20) through power increase and weight loss. Based on all my data so far this year I don't see any reason why I shouldn't be 5-5.15w/kg come my event in the summer. So for me, I think that's quite an increase through weight loss and power increase. More than I could ever have hoped for.

    But, I also know/suspect getting beyond that is very unlikely, or that any increases after that will be very very small. It's impossible to say whether it's possible for you though.

    I would add is that alot of people expect miracles over a few months, and become disheartened, or give up if nothing seems to work (mostly because they've set unachievable goals) . It will take time and a huge commitment, not only in training time, but lifestyle and outlook.

    I would set yourself a goal of an event, and the amount of time you can train, rather than just a power number. You may find you get your wattage gain just by training as hard as you can for your event - great! But what do you do if you don't hit your goal which is defined by just a number??
  • bahzobbahzob Posts: 2,195
    It's a challenging goal certainly and if you achieve it you will be at quite a high standard in comparison to others. If you lived in the UK were to take up time trialling then it would mean you could aim at a sub 20 minute 10TT which is a pretty rare benchmark and put you amongst the best riders in the country.

    To stand the best chance it would be good to have plan that focusing on building your threshold/VO2. The "Time Crunched Cyclist" may be worth checking out, it has lots of shorter intense workouts that should help with this.

    Also if you hit a plateau and want to try breaking through it then this may have a few ideas http://www.hunterallenpowerblog.com/2014/04/what-to-do-next-v02max-intensive-plan.html?utm_source=May+2014+Power+News&utm_campaign=May+Power+News&utm_medium=email(warning! this is not for the faint hearted, it hurts)

    Other thing is rest. You want to train as hard as you can when you train but take things as easy as possible when you are not. FTP improves through building muscle and this only occurs during rest. If you hit a day when you can't do the first interval well then best to take it off rather than push.
    Martin S. Newbury RC
  • cougiecougie Posts: 22,512
    You might not have the conventional climbers build - but I'm sure you could put your fitness to good use on less hilly road races.
  • epotin-generic-erythropoietin-4000-units-500x500.jpg
  • Tom DeanTom Dean Posts: 1,723
    bahzob wrote:
    It's a challenging goal certainly and if you achieve it you will be at quite a high standard in comparison to others. If you lived in the UK were to take up time trialling then it would mean you could aim at a sub 20 minute 10TT which is a pretty rare benchmark and put you amongst the best riders in the country.
    400W might not be enough. Some people can do it on considerably less.
    bahzob wrote:
    To stand the best chance it would be good to have plan that focusing on building your threshold/VO2. The "Time Crunched Cyclist" may be worth checking out, it has lots of shorter intense workouts that should help with this.
    To stand the best chance you would not be 'time crunched'. TCC is excellent if you only have 6 hours a week to train.
    bahzob wrote:
    FTP improves through building muscle
    Huh?

    The bottom line is no-one can answer the question 'Is my goal achievable?' and so this goal is not going to be useful. It might be virtually impossible, it might be easy, it might take you 5 years of hard work.
  • bahzobbahzob Posts: 2,195
    Hm. Nothing wrong or incorrect with what I said.

    400W might not be enough. Some people can do it on considerably less.> Maybe but as a ballpark 400W is a fair guess for what it takes to go sub 20 minutes for someone of the OPs build.

    To stand the best chance you would not be 'time crunched'. TCC is excellent if you only have 6 hours a week to train > Yes and more than that. 6 hours is the minimum. The OP says he has 7-13 hours per week. That is fine for the TCC. The point about the plan is that it emphasises short intense workouts which are good for someone in his place/with his goals.

    FTP improves through building muscle> OK maybe a little simple. Training only works because it results in changes to your muscles and ancillary physiology. Workouts, especially intense ones, damage your muscles and it is the process of repairing/rebuilding them that makes them stronger and improves FTP. There's a risk with stepping up intensity that the body does not get enough time to make these repairs. Hence the need to as little as possible between workouts. This is also why its probably best to follow a structured plan as this should already factor this in.

    OP: Best of luck. If you hit your goal or even just get close it should be pretty impressive. Would be interested if you can keep us up to date as to how it goes and what does/does not work.
    Martin S. Newbury RC
  • bahzobbahzob Posts: 2,195
    OP. If you want to take some inspiration there is a book by someone called Adam Topham "Fly Through The Pain Barrier". In 2006, aged 38, he did a 25 mile TT in just under an hour on a normal road bike. Very roughly this equates to 300W FTP.

    He then started training seriously and 4 years later he doing sub 50 minutes for 25 miles and 19:19 for a 10 mile TT. As a rough guess this is around the 400W+ mark. He managed this on around 9 hours training a week while holding down a full time job/having a family.

    So yes what you are aiming to achieve is possible. Whether or not you make it depends on your genetic potential plus desire to train very hard. It will also help if you have some sort of competition to go for, like time trials in Adam Topham's case. Many folks achieve their best results in terms of power while racing and having the focus of a race can help in preparation too. If not a race then a good substitute is a long climb or something similar that you can time yourself on. Even pros with powermeters use something like this during training to test and motivate themselves.
    Martin S. Newbury RC
  • Tom DeanTom Dean Posts: 1,723
    Ok, with 400w to play with you can aim at a 19:59. Fascinating insight.

    OP says he has trained 7-13 hrs/week, not that that is all he has available. The upper end of thAt range would be preferable, as would a longer term plan than the 12 week programmes in the TCC. (Which I agree is excellent)

    Are all the adaptations that lead to increased FTP a result of damaged muscle tissue being repaired? Maybe someone who knows what they are talking about could verify, I'm not sure this is the case.
  • okgookgo Posts: 4,368
    No, there is of course much more to it than that or we'd all just be doing heavy squats ruining our muscle fibers to get better at cycling...!

    Love the comparison to Topham, you know, the 5ft8 guy who weighs best part of 20kg less than OP, what relevance does that have? FYI he is not doing 400w for ten mile time trials. Neither are most people that do 19.59. In fact if you're aero enough you can do 19's on 300w.
    Blog on my first and now second season of proper riding/racing - www.firstseasonracing.com
  • bahzobbahzob Posts: 2,195
    okgo wrote:
    No, there is of course much more to it than that or we'd all just be doing heavy squats ruining our muscle fibers to get better at cycling...!

    Love the comparison to Topham, you know, the 5ft8 guy who weighs best part of 20kg less than OP, what relevance does that have? FYI he is not doing 400w for ten mile time trials. Neither are most people that do 19.59. In fact if you're aero enough you can do 19's on 300w.

    Yes I know him and have raced with him. The point is that he started later on in life than the OP and made a similar if not greater step change in terms of improvement. As you point out he weighs less so, relatively speaking gaining the power increase is greater.

    Fascinated to hear you can do 19s on 300W. Great news if you can. So much so that I'll start a thread on that topic now. Please can you reply to it with examples.
    Martin S. Newbury RC
  • bahzob wrote:
    Fascinated to hear you can do 19s on 300W. Great news if you can. So much so that I'll start a thread on that topic now. Please can you reply to it with examples.

    I guess being Okgo an 18 minutes man himself, he must know these things, no? Do we always have to question the source? Let's move on and be positive
  • bahzobbahzob Posts: 2,195
    bahzob wrote:
    Fascinated to hear you can do 19s on 300W. Great news if you can. So much so that I'll start a thread on that topic now. Please can you reply to it with examples.

    I guess being Okgo an 18 minutes man himself, he must know these things, no? Do we always have to question the source? Let's move on and be positive

    Er? This is a perfectly serious question. I can do 300W, am only 5'8" but can get nowhere near 19 minutes. If its possible its great news. So I was being positive I suggest you chill out.

    PS. Love your "positive" contribution to this thread. A picture of EPO. Hilarious, totally original and I am sure extremely helpful to the OP.
    Martin S. Newbury RC
  • bahzobbahzob Posts: 2,195
    PS to OP. The level you are aiming at is very high. While you may get some useful advice from this thread probably the best advice is try to find a good coach used to training top quality cyclists. They will be able to tailor a plan specific for you and help provide the motivation that will be needed when the training gets tough.
    Martin S. Newbury RC
  • bahzob wrote:
    Er? This is a perfectly serious question. I can do 300W, am only 5'8" but can get nowhere near 19 minutes. If its possible its great news. So I was being positive I suggest you chill out.

    PS. Love your "positive" contribution to this thread. A picture of EPO. Hilarious, totally original and I am sure extremely helpful to the OP.

    You have to discriminate jovial from aggressive... I am jovial, you are aggressive.
    I am just trying to help you, as at the moment the odds are stacked against you...
  • bahzobbahzob Posts: 2,195
    PS to all the sceptics above. While I am sure you are being positive I would refer you to the OP.

    This is someone who got a road bike just 3 months ago and is already doing 300W for 20 minutes.

    While the likelihood is that hitting 400W will be difficult it is a long way from being impossible.
    Martin S. Newbury RC
  • okgookgo Posts: 4,368
    bahzob wrote:
    okgo wrote:
    No, there is of course much more to it than that or we'd all just be doing heavy squats ruining our muscle fibers to get better at cycling...!

    Love the comparison to Topham, you know, the 5ft8 guy who weighs best part of 20kg less than OP, what relevance does that have? FYI he is not doing 400w for ten mile time trials. Neither are most people that do 19.59. In fact if you're aero enough you can do 19's on 300w.

    Yes I know him and have raced with him. The point is that he started later on in life than the OP and made a similar if not greater step change in terms of improvement. As you point out he weighs less so, relatively speaking gaining the power increase is greater.

    Fascinated to hear you can do 19s on 300W. Great news if you can. So much so that I'll start a thread on that topic now. Please can you reply to it with examples.

    There are many on the time trial forum on the thread titled 'how much power to break 20 mins' I think there was one guy who did it off 270w.
    Blog on my first and now second season of proper riding/racing - www.firstseasonracing.com
  • bahzobbahzob Posts: 2,195
    bahzob wrote:
    Er? This is a perfectly serious question. I can do 300W, am only 5'8" but can get nowhere near 19 minutes. If its possible its great news. So I was being positive I suggest you chill out.

    PS. Love your "positive" contribution to this thread. A picture of EPO. Hilarious, totally original and I am sure extremely helpful to the OP.

    You have to discriminate jovial from aggressive... I am jovial, you are aggressive.
    I am just trying to help you, as at the moment the odds are stacked against you...

    Yes its obvious the "odds are stacked against me" if I get excited about the prospect of someone managing to do a 19 minute 10 and that is interpreted as being negative.

    Whatever it's a shame you have to divert this interesting thread. I suggest you read it from the top and go through the replies and just reconsider which are "positive" and which not.

    PS While I am sure that you find posting a picture of EPO "jovial" it really is very tiresome. Please stop it.
    Martin S. Newbury RC
  • shazzzshazzz Posts: 1,073
    I regret contributing to the derailment of another thread, but I cannot understand the negative reaction that a small number of people seem to be having to Bahzob’s posts at the moment. FWIW I have found him to be one of the most positive, proactive and helpful posters to this forum over the past few years. Sure, sometimes his style is a little abrupt (generally in response to provocation) and I don’t agree with everything he says, but I appreciate the time he takes to post his experiences and thoughts. The guide he wrote to the Marmotte a few years ago remains one of the most useful things I have read on this forum.

    There seems to be significant bias in the way that some are reading his posts at the moment, and the posts of those who disagree with him.

    I really don’t want to divert the thread, but it is really bugging me!

    Anyway, to the OP I say, no idea re the FTP gain – you won’t know until you try. You certainly seem to have some talent. There’s lots of good advice on this forum about improving endurance and FTP. Re the weight loss – the target seems very achievable, but don’t underestimate how hard it is to get there. At a similar height I went from 87 to 82 with relative ease, but getting down from 82 to 75kg was hard. On a positive note, since I hit <75kg I have been able to maintain it with relative ease.
  • Hey guys thanks for all the support and advice, I´ll give some brief updates , as i stated before i have that goal in mind, im not obsessed with it, like i said before my love for cycling is climbing and all the pain and suffering associated with it ;) . For now i will just put miles steadily , after all i have only been cycling seriously for 3 months, i have been upping the training a little around 12h per week ( i can go 14-18hmax , but 12 seems reasonable to conciliate with regular life) , and just yesterday i did my first metric century !!!

    My weight now sits at 83.5k goal is 75,76. I will try to lose steadily, girlfriend is already complaining im becoming to skinny hehehe.

    In two weeks ill do another 20m all effort test on my favorite climb around here. I ´ll keep you guys updated,

    As for structured training i wont do it for now as i need to put miles on the legs, and without planning i end up doing some all effort intervals here and there.
  • shazzz wrote:
    I

    Anyway, to the OP I say, no idea re the FTP gain – you won’t know until you try. You certainly seem to have some talent. There’s lots of good advice on this forum about improving endurance and FTP. Re the weight loss – the target seems very achievable, but don’t underestimate how hard it is to get there. At a similar height I went from 87 to 82 with relative ease, but getting down from 82 to 75kg was hard. On a positive note, since I hit <75kg I have been able to maintain it with relative ease.

    Did you lose power, with the weight loss ?
  • bahzob wrote:
    Hm. Nothing wrong or incorrect with what I said.

    OP: Best of luck. If you hit your goal or even just get close it should be pretty impressive. Would be interested if you can keep us up to date as to how it goes and what does/does not work.

    Thanks for the support , i´ll do that !
  • shazzzshazzz Posts: 1,073
    shazzz wrote:
    I

    Anyway, to the OP I say, no idea re the FTP gain – you won’t know until you try. You certainly seem to have some talent. There’s lots of good advice on this forum about improving endurance and FTP. Re the weight loss – the target seems very achievable, but don’t underestimate how hard it is to get there. At a similar height I went from 87 to 82 with relative ease, but getting down from 82 to 75kg was hard. On a positive note, since I hit <75kg I have been able to maintain it with relative ease.

    Did you lose power, with the weight loss ?


    I lost the meaningful weight (from 82 to <75) in the autumn, so wasn't riding a huge amount and power was naturally down. But since training again I am hitting and breaking through my previous best power figures at this time of year. So, no, I don't think I lost power as I lost weight. I'd say 75kg is a very sensible target weight at height of 187+/-
  • okgookgo Posts: 4,368
    I've lost around 20-25kg and power is up across all durations.
    Blog on my first and now second season of proper riding/racing - www.firstseasonracing.com
  • Quick update:

    Current Weight : 83.5k

    Last 20m FTP Test 1/03 - 308W

    I pretty much bonked half a way this test, went to hard on the begining , hold 400W for 7m.

    Currently this is my 3rd Month of serious training, this last weeks been training a average of 12h, i´ve noticed some accumulated physical and psychological fatigue , going to do some easy base miles (L1, L2) , this next week too recover.

    Is it normal REALLY HARD efforts to burn you psychologically , even a day or two afterwards ?
  • bahzobbahzob Posts: 2,195
    Quick update:

    Current Weight : 83.5k

    Last 20m FTP Test 1/03 - 308W

    I pretty much bonked half a way this test, went to hard on the begining , hold 400W for 7m.

    Currently this is my 3rd Month of serious training, this last weeks been training a average of 12h, i´ve noticed some accumulated physical and psychological fatigue , going to do some easy base miles (L1, L2) , this next week too recover.

    Is it normal REALLY HARD efforts to burn you psychologically , even a day or two afterwards ?

    Yes its normal. Which is why its safest to follow a plan that take account of this by interspersing easy days with hard days. I'm not sure if you are doing this or just training as you feel like it. If the latter then I really would suggest getting a copy of Time Crunched Cyclist and following one of the racing plans there. It's pretty much focussed at what you want to achieve (if you have a bit more time available than suggested then you can add an extra interval here and there.)

    Also when doing a 20 minute test its probably a better strategy to start easy and end hard. If your last test was 308W for the next test aim to do the first 3 mins at around 300-305W, then up to 305-310W for 10 minutes then give it full blast for the last 5. If you can push and hold big numbers during this last 5 you really will be making progress.
    Martin S. Newbury RC
  • bigmatbigmat Posts: 5,132
    Interesting people saying that 75kg is "sensible" and "realistic" for 1m87. I'm 1m85 and anything below 80kg is a real push for me. Maybe it depends on physique - I have sprinters' legs and tend to lose weight from my upper body, I start to look pretty unwell much below 80kg (lowest I have got is 78kg when I was foolishly running a marathon a few years ago) and also get complaints from my wife!

    400w for 20 minutes sounds a lot more achievable in comparison, however it all depends on the individual. As others have pointed out, big changes can be achieved but probably aren't the norm - a lot will depend on where you are at the moment and how well you respond to training.
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