Contador - The future

iainf72

Now, I don't want anyone getting all worked up and freaking out in this thread, right?

I was listening to the Velonews version of the Cycling Podcast this morning, and Andy Hood raised an interesting point when discussing Contador's exit from the Tour. Could this have been his last chance to win? As they said, when you think about it and saying the last time Contador won the Tour was in 09 it's incredible, especially if he never wins it again.

I guess how he recovers from the injury will tell us a lot, but he's into his 30's now, so will start to decline. I'm not sure if he's ever said when he'd retire but how many years to we think he's got? And is he likely to win a Tour again?

r0bh

iainf72 wrote:

Now, I don't want anyone getting all worked up and freaking out in this thread, right?

Good luck with that!

andyp

iainf72 wrote:

Now, I don't want anyone getting all worked up and freaking out in this thread, right?

Good luck with that.

Arguably he's been in decline since his ban, with some days of good form but nothing as devastating as he was at his peak. I don't think he'll win another GT in his career, his time-trialling isn't what it was and he no longer has that devastating acceleration that was his trademark. Tactically he's still very good, and with Riis in the car that gives him a real edge, but I don't think that's enough to win him another GT.

ddraver

I suspect maybe not the Tour or the Giro (although it wouldnt surprise me tbh)..But to say he ll never win a future Vuelta where Quintana, Froome, Nibbles etc have all ridden the Giro and Tour seems a bit far fetched to me...

Lanterne_Rogue

I don't think he'll be going downhill quickly, if it helps?

The_Boy

He could probably win another gt but can't see him winning the tour unless he finds himself where the likes of porte etc find themselves right now.

davidof

Without derailling this thread a French man I'm reading is saying Froome will be a one hit tour wonder like Ullrich. The article was written in May so well before the current debacle.

tailwindhome

iainf72 wrote:

Now, I don't want anyone getting all worked up and freaking out in this thread, right??

As IainF72 would probably say.....Bless.

inseine

This begs the question, who if not Contador?
Does everyone assume Froome and Qunitana will divi up the spoils for the next few years?
I remember when everyone said he'd win it 5 times at least. Mind you, they've said the same of Froome.

shazzz

The conversation has shifted remarkably quickly from Contador as one of two clear faves for the Tour to some people suggesting he'll never win another GT!
He's 31, so must have a couple more shots at the Tour ahead of him at least. I bet he's worried about Quintana, alert to Nibs and Froome and keeping an eye on a few of the youngsters but, provided he recovers from the crash, I'm sure he'll be back as one of the favourites next year.

frenchfighter

Since 2009 he has monstered the Giro in 2011, won the Tour in 2010 and showed class and determination to win the Vuelta 2012.

He has seven Grand Tours at an age some people had won none. Froome has won...1 and is only 2.5 years younger than Contador. Nibali has won...2, no Tours and is only two years younger than Contador.

I couldnt see past Contador for the win in this year's Tour even before Froome went out. And would have had him favourite for the Vuelta as well although less sure given the strain of two GTs and the threat of Quintana.

No one else currently riding bar Froome, Nibali or Quintana looks to be a GT GC champion. So not sure where the threat has come from other than them who are unlikely to all do the Tour every year. Quintana is the real danger but even if this little, brave and brilliant Colombian beats Contador at the Tour there is no shame in that given he is in his prime soon and Contador will also have chances on the other Tours, both of which are respectable trophies.

Horner won against Nibali who was ten years younger and not by good luck albeit Nibali's second GT of the year.

andyp

He didn't win the Tour in 2010. Repeating it over and over will not change the (correct) decision.

iainf72

shazzz wrote:

The conversation has shifted remarkably quickly from Contador as one of two clear faves for the Tour to some people suggesting he'll never win another GT!
He's 31, so must have a couple more shots at the Tour ahead of him at least. I bet he's worried about Quintana, alert to Nibs and Froome and keeping an eye on a few of the youngsters but, provided he recovers from the crash, I'm sure he'll be back as one of the favourites next year.

Sure - But then, look at Evans. Brilliant victory in 2011 and has never got to that level again.

Why it struck me as interesting in the podcast is it was said by someone who knows him quite well.

OPQS

andyp wrote:

He didn't win the Tour in 2010. Repeating it over and over will not change the (correct) decision.

I'm pretty sure I saw him stood on the top step of the podium.

frenchfighter

OPQS wrote:

andyp wrote:

He didn't win the Tour in 2010. Repeating it over and over will not change the (correct) decision.

I'm pretty sure I saw him stood on the top step of the podium.

Exactly and whatever these rulebook forum members say a tiny amount of clen doesnt make you win the Tour. He knows he won, Andy knows he won, Scarponi knows he won the Giro and so do most of the people.

iainf72

frenchfighter wrote:

Exactly and whatever these rulebook forum members say a tiny amount of clen doesnt make you win the Tour. He knows he won, Andy knows he won, Scarponi knows he won the Giro and so do most of the people.

The official records say he didn't win, and that's what we need to go on.

Contador has been a bit wierd with his form at times. Remember his Giro win? (The one he's still got) He wasn't dominating, it was an intelligent ride. Then the next year he performs at a ridiculous level at the Tour, but since then not much like that. Even in the 2010 Tour while he was riding he wasn't anywhere near as convincing as the year before.

frenchfighter

iainf72 wrote:

frenchfighter wrote:

Exactly and whatever these rulebook forum members say a tiny amount of clen doesnt make you win the Tour. He knows he won, Andy knows he won, Scarponi knows he won the Giro and so do most of the people.

The official records say he didn't win, and that's what we need to go on.

Contador has been a bit wierd with his form at times. Remember his Giro win? (The one he's still got) He wasn't dominating, it was an intelligent ride. Then the next year he performs at a ridiculous level at the Tour, but since then not much like that. Even in the 2010 Tour while he was riding he wasn't anywhere near as convincing as the year before.

Seems a funny logic tbh. A riders form goes up and down and Contadors has gone from brilliant to great and back. His wins are very consistent through the year and over the years. As you know his Giro 08 win was a late call up and he was on the beach a week before. 2009 sure he murdered it, 2010 he also did great but was pushed to the limit by a fearsome Andy and third place was a convicted doper. 2011 you have said yourself many a time that his Giro win was imperious. 2012 was hard fought but then he had been out of competition all year.

Ps. It is one of the reason I like him - he can be domimant but also knows how to race in many ways and is tactical.

shazzz

iainf72 wrote:

shazzz wrote:

The conversation has shifted remarkably quickly from Contador as one of two clear faves for the Tour to some people suggesting he'll never win another GT!
He's 31, so must have a couple more shots at the Tour ahead of him at least. I bet he's worried about Quintana, alert to Nibs and Froome and keeping an eye on a few of the youngsters but, provided he recovers from the crash, I'm sure he'll be back as one of the favourites next year.

Sure - But then, look at Evans. Brilliant victory in 2011 and has never got to that level again.

Why it struck me as interesting in the podcast is it was said by someone who knows him quite well.

Did he have any particular reason or insight for Contador being in decline? It's certainly conceivable - he's been at the top level for a long time, may lose motivation, start a family, ......

It's also pretty interesting to see the sheer variety of GT winners over the past decade. If you incl a first time tour winner this year then we have had a new name every year except 2009 since Armstrong - 8 different winners in nine years! An unusual level of variety in the Giro too.

Maybe winning a GT is becoming so hard and requires such extraordinary commitment (and good luck) that we just won't see the domination by a small number of riders that we saw in the past?

RichN95.

iainf72 wrote:

shazzz wrote:

The conversation has shifted remarkably quickly from Contador as one of two clear faves for the Tour to some people suggesting he'll never win another GT!
He's 31, so must have a couple more shots at the Tour ahead of him at least. I bet he's worried about Quintana, alert to Nibs and Froome and keeping an eye on a few of the youngsters but, provided he recovers from the crash, I'm sure he'll be back as one of the favourites next year.

Sure - But then, look at Evans. Brilliant victory in 2011 and has never got to that level again.

Mind you, people were saying Evans wouldn't get another chance in 2009-10. I was one of them.

I heard Hood say it and I couldn't really understand it.

As others have said next year there's still only likely to be Froome (who has looked fragile this year), Nibali (who is the best he'll ever be right now) and Quintana (who will probably always lose time in TTs). He's not old, he doesn't have kids to distract him, so I don't see why he hasn't got two more shots at least.

Of course, this assumes his injury doesn't hamper him in the long term and he still gets sufficient team support.

DeVlaeminck

Contador is coming towards the end of his prime but whether he has another year or another 3-4 before any significant decline sets in who knows. This year he seemed to have the form to be one of the favourites for the Tour and as long as he can maintain that level it's likely he'll remain one of the favourites but that doesn't guarantee another win.

I'd be very surprised if he doesn't win another grand tour though if only because he seems happy to ride two a year so he probably has as many chances of winning one as the younger Froome who seems to target just one.

If I had to bet right now on the 2015 Tour I'd go for Quintana.

No_Ta_Doctor

I think he's got at least a couple of years left with a good shot. Other than him there are basically three top GT riders, and there are three GTs.

In a couple of years time some of the youngsters may be growing into proper GT prospects, I think we'll have some healthy and broad competition in the future.

Crozza

I find it amusing that this thread has been started by someone who still seems to think that Basso has what it takes

Bakunin

AC -- the future? Are you serious?

The guy is 31 years old and has won all three GTs. He races to win. He lights up every race he enters. Why would that stop? His form is up and down -- how is that different than anyone else? Don't you want to see that to some extent?

He is a tough guy. He beat Armstrong and JB when they tried to screw him. He is a generous rider, who has gifted stages. He has succeeded when he didn't have great teams. I don't think he likes his owner all that much, but he changed his program and tried to improve this season.

Yet, people really hate him -- i.e., he is risky, he is dirty, he is dumb (the evidence is all over this forum).

And he hasn't ridden the tour all that often during his peak years -- with the Liberty, Vino's Astana, and the glowing steak adventures -- but when he did, he did well.

I don't understand the question.

I never understood why Contador doesn't get the respect that others get -- dopers and non-dopers alike (and I don't deny the Clen positive, but I also acknowledge that if that blood doesn't go to the lab that it went to, there is no positive, but such is procycling).

Why ask the question?

I think the dreadful recent behavior of Marianne Voss and her disgusting Rabbo teammates in Italy is much more worthy of discussion.

OPQS

Bakunin wrote:

I think the dreadful recent behavior of Marianne Voss and her disgusting Rabbo teammates in Italy is much more worthy of discussion.

What do you speak of?

ddraver

Bakunin wrote:

I think the dreadful recent behavior of Marianne Voss and her disgusting Rabbo teammates in Italy is much more worthy of discussion.

Start a thread on it then?

Have to say I don't know what youre even on about..?

No_Ta_Doctor

ddraver wrote:

Bakunin wrote:

I think the dreadful recent behavior of Marianne Voss and her disgusting Rabbo teammates in Italy is much more worthy of discussion.

Start a thread on it then?

Have to say I don't know what youre even on about..?

There's a thread on it already, Giro Rosa spoilers. It has no relevance here at all. Might as well say that it isn't worth debating Rabbo because kids are dying in Gaza and there's Ebola in West Africa .

tailwindhome

No tA Doctor wrote:

ddraver wrote:

Bakunin wrote:

I think the dreadful recent behavior of Marianne Voss and her disgusting Rabbo teammates in Italy is much more worthy of discussion.

Start a thread on it then?

Have to say I don't know what youre even on about..?

There's a thread on it already, Giro Rosa spoilers. It has no relevance here at all. Might as well say that it isn't worth debating Rabbo because kids are dying in Gaza and there's Ebola in West Africa .

I know a guy could make some great placards.

No_Ta_Doctor

Bakunin wrote:

AC -- the future? Are you serious?

The guy is 31 years old and has won all three GTs. He races to win. He lights up every race he enters. Why would that stop? His form is up and down -- how is that different than anyone else? Don't you want to see that to some extent?

He is a tough guy. He beat Armstrong and JB when they tried to screw him. He is a generous rider, who has gifted stages. He has succeeded when he didn't have great teams. I don't think he likes his owner all that much, but he changed his program and tried to improve this season.

Yet, people really hate him -- i.e., he is risky, he is dirty, he is dumb (the evidence is all over this forum).

And he hasn't ridden the tour all that often during his peak years -- with the Liberty, Vino's Astana, and the glowing steak adventures -- but when he did, he did well.

I don't understand the question.

I never understood why Contador doesn't get the respect that others get -- dopers and non-dopers alike (and I don't deny the Clen positive, but I also acknowledge that if that blood doesn't go to the lab that it went to, there is no positive, but such is procycling).

Why ask the question?

I think the dreadful recent behavior of Marianne Voss and her disgusting Rabbo teammates in Italy is much more worthy of discussion.

Why is it lack of respect to question whether a rider at 31, with a new generation of rivals appearing, will be able to win a GT again? He's hardly been stellar since he returned from his ban, a Vuelta against a fairly weak field in 2012, bugger all in 2013, some good one week stage races in 2014. He looked pretty strong to me this year, but crashed out (it was others in the peloton that said he was taking risks at the time). I think it's an entirely reasonable question, though I'm fairly sure the answer is that he'll have a good chance in the next couple of years.

mfin

If I had to bet then I would say he will come 3rd in the tour next year, but it's all just guessing, there are too many uncontrollable factors and always will be. All his best and most dominating results are behind him now, I put that a little bit down to age but mostly down to previous you know what. At least when form does go against him he's got a good race brain to give him the chance of getting the best result he can.

Daz555

frenchfighter wrote:

Exactly and whatever these rulebook forum members say a tiny amount of clen doesnt make you win the Tour.

Out of interest, how much clen does it take to invalidate a Tour win? Perhaps we could see your scale of cheating so we can decide in future which drug cheats should keep their titles.

iainf72

Crozza wrote:

I find it amusing that this thread has been started by someone who still seems to think that Basso has what it takes

I think he has what it takes to be a mountain helper, not much else.