Olympic RR - Preview
Comments
-
-
Seems to me that overall on the forum, not just Rick Ch, there has been a change of optimism/opinion the last few weeks about Cav’s chances. I wonder if it’s just a post-TdF euphoria or whether Box Hill is now less steep.Rick Chasey wrote:
I've softened a bit.alanp23 wrote:
What's your view now on Cav winning?Rick Chasey wrote:#1. He won't win. He's got nothing to lose helping Cav out, and something to gain.
#2. There is. A breakaway near the finish with 3 riders is ALWAYS dangerous in the olympics (or worlds for that matter).
#3. I doubt any team will think they can outsprint Cav. Some may settle for a medal and chip in.
A month or so ago you were adament that he had no chance. Are you still of that opinion?
I'll be surprised if he's not dropped at some point on the hills.
It's whether the race positions and the tactical situation works in a way to bring the group back. Either the group ahead doesn't work or the group behind is motivated - or if this easterly wind continues!
I’m sure Cavendish would like to win but I suspect Brailsford has a plan B which takes effect at the latest after lap 5 if Cav is struggling – probably in favour of Froome, so everyone gets a cut of the cake.
I think the Gilbert-Boonen option looks the best choice, but of course what often looks the best doesn’t work out.
I don’t take too much notice of Boonen what said (Rick Ch’s post above, page 5) because Boonen knows the right words to say to the media, even if he doesn’t entirely bluff.
Although Cav and Sagan are favourites, for French cycling enthusiasts (the equivalent of this Pro Race Forum) Demare has as a good chance as Boonen for the podium. Is this something we’re missing?
Someone here wrote Chavanel would work for the Belgians, but maybe the French have a secret plan?0 -
Froome plan B? Is that a joke?knedlicky wrote:
Seems to me that overall on the forum, not just Rick Ch, there has been a change of optimism/opinion the last few weeks about Cav’s chances. I wonder if it’s just a post-TdF euphoria or whether Box Hill is now less steep.Rick Chasey wrote:
I've softened a bit.alanp23 wrote:
What's your view now on Cav winning?Rick Chasey wrote:#1. He won't win. He's got nothing to lose helping Cav out, and something to gain.
#2. There is. A breakaway near the finish with 3 riders is ALWAYS dangerous in the olympics (or worlds for that matter).
#3. I doubt any team will think they can outsprint Cav. Some may settle for a medal and chip in.
A month or so ago you were adament that he had no chance. Are you still of that opinion?
I'll be surprised if he's not dropped at some point on the hills.
It's whether the race positions and the tactical situation works in a way to bring the group back. Either the group ahead doesn't work or the group behind is motivated - or if this easterly wind continues!
I’m sure Cavendish would like to win but I suspect Brailsford has a plan B which takes effect at the latest after lap 5 if Cav is struggling – probably in favour of Froome, so everyone gets a cut of the cake.
I think the Gilbert-Boonen option looks the best choice, but of course what often looks the best doesn’t work out.
I don’t take too much notice of Boonen what said (Rick Ch’s post above, page 5) because Boonen knows the right words to say to the media, even if he doesn’t entirely bluff.
Although Cav and Sagan are favourites, for French cycling enthusiasts (the equivalent of this Pro Race Forum) Demare has as a good chance as Boonen for the podium. Is this something we’re missing?
Someone here wrote Chavanel would work for the Belgians, but maybe the French have a secret plan?
why would he be plan B, there is a long way to go after last climb of box hill and froome is probably the slowest of the UK team in a gallop, Wiggo is much faster also Stannard. I dont think they have a plan B it is Cave all out. Only plan B could try would be break with wiggo or stannard shooting off. I cant see Cav droppin on the climb its only just over a mile and av 5% he will recover each time its not like its a 20 mile Alp climb. It is not that wide a road sowouldnt be surprised if UK and some other teams ride it tempo as the teams are quite small and wont want to pull bakc long breaks. If no hopers they will leave them out for maybe 20 minutes gap but any dangerous ones they wont want to get more than 5 mins away once box hill done.
I think Cav will do it, think Sagan is biggest threat, dont rate Farrah the whinger, Greipel can pull off good sprint but is a bit inconsistent with judging his effort sometimes.
I think home crowd will play a big part also.0 -
Hi
Can anyone tell me which TV station and internet sites will be covering the Olympic road races ?
Thanks
Gavin0 -
Not that I believe there is a plan b but I would have thought it was for a long breakaway style rider and I would think millar then stannard are the best hopes for that. But it won't happen, they will work
For cav all out no matter what0 -
Just realised I ve organised a trip to Brussels/Bruge this weekend with some hot French/Girls - Terrible timing there!! Might have to ditch them for a few hours...
For the first time ever I'm a bit jealous i don't cycle in/around London...We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
- @ddraver0 -
ddraver wrote:Just realised I ve organised a trip to Brussels/Bruge this weekend with some hot French/Girls - Terrible timing there!! Might have to ditch them for a few hours...
Seriously mate, just Sky + it or watch the highlights. Sounds like your afternoon is going to be far more interesting."I have a lovely photo of a Camargue horse but will not post it now" (Frenchfighter - July 2013)0 -
BBC & Eurosport if watching in the UK0
-
-
ddraver wrote:Just realised I ve organised a trip to Brussels/Bruge this weekend with some hot French/Girls .........
Thing is he doesn't seem certain whether they're French or Girls? :shock:0 -
inkyfingers wrote:ddraver wrote:Just realised I ve organised a trip to Brussels/Bruge this weekend with some hot French/Girls - Terrible timing there!! Might have to ditch them for a few hours...
Seriously mate, just Sky + it or watch the highlights. Sounds like your afternoon is going to be far more interesting.
Yes.
And you're in the Hague which is one of my favourite places to be anyway. So sssh.0 -
Dorset Boy wrote:ddraver wrote:Just realised I ve organised a trip to Brussels/Bruge this weekend with some hot French/Girls .........
Thing is he doesn't seem certain whether they're French or Girls? :shock:
Oh yeah...
That was supposed to be French/Spanish Girls (and technically a Maexian one, but I counted her as Spanish as that's what she speaks...)We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
- @ddraver0 -
I know you cant give a set answer, but how long should the race take? Im deciding whether to start watching it from 10 at home then having to leave for family meal at 1.30 or go straight at 10 and not miss anything?0
-
dormer88 wrote:I know you cant give a set answer, but how long should the race take? Im deciding whether to start watching it from 10 at home then having to leave for family meal at 1.30 or go straight at 10 and not miss anything?
IT will be dull untill around 2 o'clock or so.
It may be dull up untill 4pm....
Record it and go for the family meal.0 -
knedlicky wrote:
I think the Gilbert-Boonen option looks the best choice, but of course what often looks the best doesn’t work out.
I don’t take too much notice of Boonen what said (Rick Ch’s post above, page 5) because Boonen knows the right words to say to the media, even if he doesn’t entirely bluff.
Boonen's reasonably honest. I think his assessment is about right.
It's rare Boonen gets a prediction wrong re-how the race goes, and when he says someone is going well, he's rarely wrong.
It's if the Belgians can turn the race into a full blown classics race, or if the Brits can shut it down into some dull TdF sprint. With the help of others obviously. But they're the two opposed strongest teams.
I think we're all underestimating how much crashes will affect things though. Box Hill is very narrow, and the surface on the descent is poor at best. Marcel Wüst said it was "sh!t" in the pro-cycling article.0 -
Cheers many thanks! Shall record and hopefully wont find out the result!0
-
Rick Chasey wrote:
Was he complaining to the policeman about those two stages that Sky "stole" from him at the Tour?0 -
Austria
Contador is the Greatest0 -
Boonen 16/1
Gilbert 28/1
If you don't think Cav's going to win, there is a lot of value out there.0 -
oneof1982 wrote:Boonen 16/1
Gilbert 28/1
If you don't think Cav's going to win, there is a lot of value out there.
Agreed. LLS is 50/1 with Paddy Power.0 -
Someone I know at work has just wandered in to tell me that a student of his has won a competition prize which she can't use and has given to him.
2 x VIP tickets in the Grandstand at the Mall tomorrow (+ free train travel)!M.Rushton0 -
We know he can get in the breaks that matter and that he can do a good ITT if needed (i.e. to hold off a chasing pack), so Paddy Power must assume it will definitely be a bunch sprint finish.ilovebigwig wrote:oneof1982 wrote:Boonen 16/1
Gilbert 28/1
If you don't think Cav's going to win, there is a lot of value out there.
Agreed. LLS is 50/1 with Paddy Power.0 -
Le Commentateur wrote:
We know he can get in the breaks that matter and that he can do a good ITT if needed (i.e. to hold off a chasing pack), so Paddy Power must assume it will definitely be a bunch sprint finish.ilovebigwig wrote:oneof1982 wrote:Boonen 16/1
Gilbert 28/1
If you don't think Cav's going to win, there is a lot of value out there.
Agreed. LLS is 50/1 with Paddy Power.
They also need some bets on non-Cav riders to get a bit more of a hedge.0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:Le Commentateur wrote:
We know he can get in the breaks that matter and that he can do a good ITT if needed (i.e. to hold off a chasing pack), so Paddy Power must assume it will definitely be a bunch sprint finish.ilovebigwig wrote:oneof1982 wrote:Boonen 16/1
Gilbert 28/1
If you don't think Cav's going to win, there is a lot of value out there.
Agreed. LLS is 50/1 with Paddy Power.
They also need some bets on non-Cav riders to get a bit more of a hedge.
Each way is top three so a few of the classics or break away guys could be a good bet if it goes this way.0 -
The only way Cav wont win tomorrow is from a mechanical or crash. Box hill is going to be no challenge to the riders. Its a gentle gradient for over 1 km with a superb surface so to think that climb will string out the group is nonsense. To do it 9 times makes no difference either because of the amount of time they will have to recover each lap. Even if a break did go you then have 50km back to the finish on wide fast roads.
Only person i could see potentially disrupting this for Cav is Boonen or Cancellara. They both have won from 50k out in classics before but i think those races are harder than this one is.
The other nations have to make some sort of pact that they work together to get rid of Cav and then fight it out amongst themselves. Whether the Italians, Spanish, Belgians will be prepared to do that i doubt and i suspect it will be another Cav sprint win.0 -
tarmacpro wrote:The only way Cav wont win tomorrow is from a mechanical or crash. Box hill is going to be no challenge to the riders. Its a gentle gradient for over 1 km with a superb surface so to think that climb will string out the group is nonsense. To do it 9 times makes no difference either because of the amount of time they will have to recover each lap. Even if a break did go you then have 50km back to the finish on wide fast roads.
Only person i could see potentially disrupting this for Cav is Boonen or Cancellara. They both have won from 50k out in classics before but i think those races are harder than this one is.
The other nations have to make some sort of pact that they work together to get rid of Cav and then fight it out amongst themselves. Whether the Italians, Spanish, Belgians will be prepared to do that i doubt and i suspect it will be another Cav sprint win.
I've said it before, Box Hill stats are very similar to the Poggio.0 -
tarmacpro wrote:The only way Cav wont win tomorrow is from a mechanical or crash. Box hill is going to be no challenge to the riders. Its a gentle gradient for over 1 km with a superb surface so to think that climb will string out the group is nonsense. To do it 9 times makes no difference either because of the amount of time they will have to recover each lap. Even if a break did go you then have 50km back to the finish on wide fast roads.
Only person i could see potentially disrupting this for Cav is Boonen or Cancellara. They both have won from 50k out in classics before but i think those races are harder than this one is.
The other nations have to make some sort of pact that they work together to get rid of Cav and then fight it out amongst themselves. Whether the Italians, Spanish, Belgians will be prepared to do that i doubt and i suspect it will be another Cav sprint win.
The hill itself isn't hard but the course as a whole is very taxing, winding, narrow, little kicks uphill here and there and the general surface is crap, it'll probably end in a sprint but that's not to say everyone will be there to contest it, lots are going to get dropped.0 -
Anyone seen better odds than 4-1 for Sagan?
My PTP heart has said Cav... my money however...0 -
Not exactly generous odds , considering as ' lone' representative...afx237vi wrote:JGSI wrote:Anyone seen better odds than 4-1 for Sagan?
My PTP heart has said Cav... my money however...
8.4 (15/2) on Betfair at the minute. He's the only Slovak in the race... reckon he might get some help from the Italians?0
