Tour "outsiders"
Comments
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I can see this ending up like the tour of 93 - Just replace Wiggins with Indurain and Evans with Rominger......Wiggins will just follow the wheels if he's kicked their ar*e's in the TT's 8)
Outsider - Mmmm Jurgen Van den Broek0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:I am officially rubbish today.
Ignore anything I write.
Does this include any threats of censorship or ban (just in case I need evidence for the defence at any point)
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Rolland- depending on how much he has to look after Tommy V, could do pretty well0
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Paddy Power offering 7/4 on any rider other than 'the big two' winning!0
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I find odds making for cycling completely off the wall.
How can you offer those odds for nearly 200 riders in a 3 week race where anything can happen?"In many ways, my story was that of a raging, Christ-like figure who hauled himself off the cross, looked up at the Romans with blood in his eyes and said 'My turn, sock cookers'"
@gietvangent0 -
I think far too many people have already settled on a Wiggins or Cadel scenario. I think an outsider winning this Tour is a very credible option. Wiggins and Evans will not be attacking in the mountains. The mountains this year are not as arduous as they have been previous years so its a case of riders sticking with Wiggins or Evans in the mountains, or bettering them while they keep their feet of the Gas watching each other and then going on to ride a decent enough TT. A third week TT isn't a TT, its more a battle of whos got legs enough to ride it well after the previous 2 and a half weeks. If riders like De Gendt Can storm up mountains in the Giro ahead of the leaders jersey group then other can do the Same in le Tour.
Realistically all it takes is for Wiggo or Evans to have a sh*t time in the last TT and a winner could come from anywhere. I would put Wiggins and Evans as favourites, but i'm not buying all this 'only way they won't win is if they crash' crap. There are still plenty of scenarios possible to put an end to Cadel and Wiggins.0 -
disgruntledgoat wrote:I find odds making for cycling completely off the wall.
How can you offer those odds for nearly 200 riders in a 3 week race where anything can happen?
For the same reason one rider won it 7 in a row and a good handfull have won it 5 times.0 -
The odds for Wiggo and Evans are way too low for me. I'll pick out a handful of the others for a punt.
Froome, Sanchez, Nibs, Levi, Klod, Horner and Kruijw.. (sp)
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disgruntledgoat wrote:I find odds making for cycling completely off the wall.
How can you offer those odds for nearly 200 riders in a 3 week race where anything can happen?
Because bookies odds have more to do with hedging their position than they do with actual of might happen in a race/event (although their position is obv influenced by the betting of punters who are betting on what might happen).0 -
LeicesterLad wrote:I think far too many people have already settled on a Wiggins or Cadel scenario. I think an outsider winning this Tour is a very credible option. Wiggins and Evans will not be attacking in the mountains. The mountains this year are not as arduous as they have been previous years so its a case of riders sticking with Wiggins or Evans in the mountains, or bettering them while they keep their feet of the Gas watching each other and then going on to ride a decent enough TT. A third week TT isn't a TT, its more a battle of whos got legs enough to ride it well after the previous 2 and a half weeks. If riders like De Gendt Can storm up mountains in the Giro ahead of the leaders jersey group then other can do the Same in le Tour.
Realistically all it takes is for Wiggo or Evans to have a sh*t time in the last TT and a winner could come from anywhere. I would put Wiggins and Evans as favourites, but i'm not buying all this 'only way they won't win is if they crash' crap. There are still plenty of scenarios possible to put an end to Cadel and Wiggins.
This year's course is pretty dull...back in the good old days when men were men we would have 3 proper days in the Alps followed by 2 proper days in the pyrenees or vice versa.....This year will be a dull race just like the Time Triallers years of Indurain & Rominger.0 -
Wot? Kruijswijk fancied, but not Gesink or Mollema?
I know Rabobonk are tactically.........er.........naive, but young Steven is supposed to be the domestic help for the other two, according to their press release stuff.
VDB for me, but since he also hasn't had a mention, could Jani Brajkovic finally put together a full 3 weeks of form?"Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.0 -
Gazzetta67 wrote:LeicesterLad wrote:I think far too many people have already settled on a Wiggins or Cadel scenario. I think an outsider winning this Tour is a very credible option. Wiggins and Evans will not be attacking in the mountains. The mountains this year are not as arduous as they have been previous years so its a case of riders sticking with Wiggins or Evans in the mountains, or bettering them while they keep their feet of the Gas watching each other and then going on to ride a decent enough TT. A third week TT isn't a TT, its more a battle of whos got legs enough to ride it well after the previous 2 and a half weeks. If riders like De Gendt Can storm up mountains in the Giro ahead of the leaders jersey group then other can do the Same in le Tour.
Realistically all it takes is for Wiggo or Evans to have a sh*t time in the last TT and a winner could come from anywhere. I would put Wiggins and Evans as favourites, but i'm not buying all this 'only way they won't win is if they crash' crap. There are still plenty of scenarios possible to put an end to Cadel and Wiggins.
This year's course is pretty dull...back in the good old days when men were men we would have 3 proper days in the Alps followed by 2 proper days in the pyrenees or vice versa.....This year will be a dull race just like the Time Triallers years of Indurain & Rominger.
+1
The more I look at the route, the more convinced I become that Wiggins is going to win by 4-5 minutes with 3 weeks of tempo riding by Sky.0 -
Blazing Saddles wrote:Wot? Kruijswijk fancied, but not Gesink or Mollema?
I know Rabobonk are tactically.........er.........naive, but young Steven is supposed to be the domestic help for the other two, according to their press release stuff.
VDB for me, but since he also hasn't had a mention, could Jani Brajkovic finally put together a full 3 weeks of form?
Dutch riders for Rabo never ever do well on GC.
Not even Boogerd could get top 5.0 -
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Rick Chasey wrote:disgruntledgoat wrote:I find odds making for cycling completely off the wall.
How can you offer those odds for nearly 200 riders in a 3 week race where anything can happen?
For the same reason one rider won it 7 in a row and a good handfull have won it 5 times.
The bookies are doping?0 -
There are enough (~10) good climbers that between them, if they realise they've got to attack on the climbs to nullify Evans/Wiggins TT abilities that there should be on paper some very good racing. Whether this actually occurs in practise on the route they take is another matter0
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Anyone who thinks the route doesn't present opportunities for climbers to gain time clearly hasn't studied it yet.
Whether the climbers use those opportunities is a different matter.0 -
andyp wrote:Anyone who thinks the route doesn't present opportunities for climbers to gain time clearly hasn't studied it yet.
Whether the climbers use those opportunities is a different matter.
I have studied the route and buy other tours it's a poor route.. there is too many TT kms...is prudhomme trying to make it a Sky v BMC benefit race. As i said before Sky will do what Banesto used to do is to ride tempo and kill any attacks. The only nearly successfull attack i can remember and i was there on La Plagne when Zulle had 2 mins on Indurain and only then we saw him have to ride on his own after zulle. The ONLY team who might try and put riders on the attack in the mountains are Movistar. ...There are not enough climbers in the race to get away from Froome,Porte,Rogers, like we witnessed at the Dauphine. Much as i would like Wiggins to do well this could be a 3 week dull as dishwater race.0 -
Not enough climbers? Menchov, Scarponi, Nibali, Basso, Van den Broeck, Hesjedal, Schleck, Sanchez, Rolland, Taaramae, Gesink, Mollema, Cobo
Only real ones missing are Andy, bertie & J-rod
There is plenty enough talent there0 -
What i should have said - There would have to be a good group of them to get away together and all contribute and put time into SKY & BMC...cant see it myself. As you said the "REAL" climbers are not there eh.0
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andyjr wrote:Not enough climbers? Menchov, Scarponi, Nibali, Basso, Van den Broeck, Hesjedal, Schleck, Sanchez, Rolland, Taaramae, Gesink, Mollema, Cobo
Only real ones missing are Andy, bertie & J-rod
There is plenty enough talent there
The question is not whether any of those riders can climb, but whether they can outclimb Wiggins and the rest of the Sky riders. Wiggins has shown countless times this year that he's more than comfortable riding at a high tempo and even going to the front and setting his own pace. There was a bit in the Dauphiné when Evans and Nibali got a gap on a descent, where Wiggins waited until the next bit of uphill and rode across on his own, cool as a cucumber.
I'm trying to think of the last time I saw Menchov or Basso or Scarponi actually attack and win with a time gap.0 -
afx237vi wrote:andyjr wrote:Not enough climbers? Menchov, Scarponi, Nibali, Basso, Van den Broeck, Hesjedal, Schleck, Sanchez, Rolland, Taaramae, Gesink, Mollema, Cobo
Only real ones missing are Andy, bertie & J-rod
There is plenty enough talent there
The question is not whether any of those riders can climb, but whether they can outclimb Wiggins and the rest of the Sky riders. Wiggins has shown countless times this year that he's more than comfortable riding at a high tempo and even going to the front and setting his own pace. There was a bit in the Dauphiné when Evans and Nibali got a gap on a descent, where Wiggins waited until the next bit of uphill and rode across on his own, cool as a cucumber.
I'm trying to think of the last time I saw Menchov or Basso or Scarponi actually attack and win with a time gap.
+ This .... What i should have said in my last post
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I think Menchov could also contend, I know he's old but has a habit of riding a strong TT and sitting in the wheels in the climbs, generally under the radar..."I get paid to make other people suffer on my wheel, how good is that"
--Jens Voight0 -
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I've gone for Gesink e/w at 25/1 as he looked good in the tour of California. Also a few cheeky quid on Tony Martin to finish in the top 10 at 13/2 (though I've just read hes not interested in the GC)0
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Menchov's CQ Ranking graph shows which direction he's been headed since leaving Rabo...0
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Gazzetta67 wrote:
+ This .... What i should have said in my last post
Got ya. You are right though. There is the potential for it not to be great. But would we complain if Wiggins went and won?
Only team who I can see that could do anything on their own to disprupe SKY/BMC would be Liquigas0 -
andyjr wrote:Gazzetta67 wrote:
+ This .... What i should have said in my last post
Got ya. You are right though. There is the potential for it not to be great. But would we complain if Wiggins went and won?
Only team who I can see that could do anything on their own to disprupe SKY/BMC would be Liquigas
Nope i wont complain....only waited 25 years since watching Robert Millar fly the british flag seriously ....Yes i agree missed Liquigas along with Movistar in the mountains. 0 -
Froome is the outside bet for me - if anything goes wrong for Wiggins, he looks to be hitting form at just the right time.
I suspect (and hope) that Wiggins will crush them all, in the time trials and the mountains. I wouldn't be surprised to see him ride them all off his wheel one by one on the first mountain top finish a la Indurain.0
