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Tour "outsiders"

iainf72iainf72 Posts: 15,782
edited June 2012 in Pro race
Ok, so lets assume Wiggins or Evans don't win.

Who will?
Fckin' Quintana … that creep can roll, man.
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Posts

  • petemadocpetemadoc Posts: 2,667
    No one seems to be talking about Hesjedal

    Surely he's in with a chance...
  • calvjonescalvjones Posts: 3,850
    This is the least outsider-friendly Tour for years as one or other of Evans & Wiggo might fall off but probably not both.

    Coppel if he gets to the end of a mountain stage in a break might go top 6.

    But win? Menchov if he can b arsed/not too old. Ditto Leip & Klodi, but very doubtful.

    VdB could finish top 3, but top 5 more likely.

    The most likely in the absence of the top 2 may well be Froome!
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  • calvjonescalvjones Posts: 3,850
    petemadoc wrote:
    No one seems to be talking about Hesjedal

    Surely he's in with a chance...

    Not with this route, and not with the TT he displayed in the Giro.
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  • calvjonescalvjones Posts: 3,850
    :D Perennial Tommy D of course
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  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 52,706 Lives Here
    Nibs.
  • MrTapirMrTapir Posts: 1,206
    Porte? Decent TTer isnt he? But if Wiggo went out early on, would SKy become more Cav-focused and leave the GCers to fight for themselves?
  • Samu Sanchez? not going to suffer too much on the TT's and would drop most of the other guys on atleast a few climbs.
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  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 24,297
    I think the one person who can beat Wiggins and Evans, as opposed to them failing, is Robert Gesink. I don't expect it to happen though. Van den Broeck is my actual pick as the best of the rest.
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  • cougiecougie Posts: 22,512
    Froome if he's on his Vuelta form ? No idea if he is mind you.
  • cougie wrote:
    Froome if he's on his Vuelta form ? No idea if he is mind you.

    Who was he beating in that race though? Bit of a chipper field wasn't it?
    Take care of the luxuries and the necessites will take care of themselves.
  • andypandyp Posts: 8,358
    He beat Wiggins, Nibali and Van Den Broeck, amongst others.
  • DeadCalmDeadCalm Posts: 3,715
    calvjones wrote:
    This is the least outsider-friendly Tour for years as one or other of Evans & Wiggo might fall off but probably not both.

    Coppel if he gets to the end of a mountain stage in a break might go top 6.

    But win? Menchov if he can b arsed/not too old. Ditto Leip & Klodi, but very doubtful.

    VdB could finish top 3, but top 5 more likely.

    The most likely in the absence of the top 2 may well be Froome!
    I don't see any scenario where any of the obvious second tier riders Nibal, Leipheimer, Kloden, Hesjedal, etc. can win unless, as you say, both Evans and Wiggins have a fall or some major disaster. The only other way I can see one of those two not winning is if someone gains enough time in a break, manages to hang on in the mountains a la Voekler and turns in the time trial of his life. But to be given that kind of freedom they would have to be completely under the radar and they would need BMC and Sky to make a serious mis-calculation. The more I write, the more I realise just how unlikely a scenario that is but, hey, one can dream.
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  • MrTapirMrTapir Posts: 1,206
    cougie wrote:
    Froome if he's on his Vuelta form ? No idea if he is mind you.

    Who was he beating in that race though? Bit of a chipper field wasn't it?

    Wiggins...
  • petemadocpetemadoc Posts: 2,667
    MrTapir wrote:
    cougie wrote:
    Froome if he's on his Vuelta form ? No idea if he is mind you.

    Who was he beating in that race though? Bit of a chipper field wasn't it?

    Wiggins...

    lol
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 52,706 Lives Here
    How many of the outsiders have won a GT?

    I count two. Nibs and Menchov.

    Menchov's too old and dog shite, so you've got to go for Nibs.

    Edit: I guess 3 with Hej. But he'll be shagged, like Contador was.
  • Coming back from injury though, don't really rate Van Den Broeck. Don't get me wrong 2nd in any GT is good but just can't see him beating some of the better GT riders in the Tour
    Take care of the luxuries and the necessites will take care of themselves.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 52,706 Lives Here
    Coming back from injury though, don't really rate Van Den Broeck. Don't get me wrong 2nd in any GT is good but just can't see him beating some of the better GT riders in the Tour

    He's quite aggressive in the mountains and can TT. Sort of.

    His attacks usually fall short since he's not good enough yet, but he could be good.

    Jelle is good support too.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 52,706 Lives Here
    How many of the outsiders have won a GT?

    I count two. Nibs and Menchov.

    Menchov's too old and dog shite, so you've got to go for Nibs.

    Edit: I guess 3 with Hej. But he'll be shagged, like Contador was.


    OK 4 - didn't know Basso was riding.

    Same reason to count out as Hej.
  • andypandyp Posts: 8,358
    Cobo and Valverde have both won GTs too, Rick.
  • ProssPross Posts: 25,468
    In the event of Wiggins having a mishap then Rogers, Porte or Froome could slot in (assuming the mishap occurred before any meaningful stages where those three may have been sacrificed). Of the others I would say Gesink. If Frank is bluffing with his comments about being leader and attacks on a mountain stage leaving the others looking at each other to chase then he could do something but there are too many ifs in that for it to be considered seriously! Realistically you are looking at a strong TT rider who can hold on in the hills - Vande Velde may fit that profile?
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 52,706 Lives Here
    andyp wrote:
    Cobo and Valverde have both won GTs too, Rick.

    :roll:

    OK 6. They're both spanish dogshite.

    Sorry, am a little disrracted.
  • ProssPross Posts: 25,468
    But one of the two favourites hasn't won a GT (or even runner-up) ;)
  • pat1cppat1cp Posts: 765
    I think Hesjedal represents far better value with the bookies than Twiggo. Brad is 13/10 for the win, Hesjedal is 66/1. So I've had a cheeky e/w punt on him. It's a long way to Paris.

    Anyway, Pantani did the double in '98. ;-)
  • frenchfighterfrenchfighter Posts: 30,642
    edited June 2012
    Levi. Please no. But he is in with a shout. Consistent, good form, good TT. Only issue is where he can put time into the top two...if they have a crash/mechanical/defaillance maybe.

    Gesink can actually TT pretty well. And on form he would put time into Wiggins. Same for VDB as well. Both have an attacking mentality. Nibali of course has a good shout - depends on whether he has top form in the TT. But the descents could play into his hands for a bunch of seconds. You cant discount Scarponi and Sanchez either. Peraud for AG2R could be in for a shout of a podo. Gesink has a very strong team and you could see three Rabos in the top ten. Cant forget Valverde. And why not Westra - super strong TT and is not slow-coach in the mountains (2nd Paris Nice this year).

    To be honest there are a lot of 2nd/3rd tier riders who have an attacking streak. Could be good fun, although there isnt exactly room for them to attack much.

    Personally I wouldnt be surprised if Wiggins will beat them all in the TTs AND the mountains.
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  • timoid.timoid. Posts: 3,133
    How could you all forget Vino?

    Vuelta victor in that preposterous Vino and Kash show.

    I think if he's got the right things in place he could podium. Prudhomme must be hoping to beejesus he doesn't.


    Others I will keep my eye on will be Tony Martin and Steven Kruijswijk (how the heck do you pronounce that). The later is my absolute dark horse for the Tour.
    It's a little like wrestling a gorilla. You don't quit when you're tired. You quit when the gorilla is tired.
  • arnufarnuf Posts: 79
    andyp wrote:
    Cobo and Valverde have both won GTs too, Rick.

    Even Scarponi. Or Vinokourov...

    I expect van den Broeck to do well.
  • petemadocpetemadoc Posts: 2,667
    Personally I wouldnt be surprised if Wiggins will beat them all in the TTs AND the mountains.

    It may not be super exciting to watch but I really hope this happens.

    I actually quite like seeing all the big riders slowly getting dropped one by one, the pain and despair on the faces as they slip away. Can't see Wiggins dropping Evans or Frank if they're on form though.
  • TheBigBeanTheBigBean Posts: 11,843
    I backed Cobo on Betfair at 950. He is one of three riders in the race, I believe, who won the last GT they raced.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 52,706 Lives Here
    I am officially rubbish today.

    Ignore anything I write.
  • tailwindhometailwindhome Posts: 15,913
    Horner.

    Gonna destroy these European Cry Babies.
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