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PYMWYMI II - Will Cav finish the TDF?

tailwindhometailwindhome Posts: 14,701
edited July 2012 in Pro race
Put your money where your mouth is II

Will Cavendish finish the TDF?

I say no - He'll quit on the rest day and get ready for London.

Will Cav finish the TDF? 84 votes

Yes
47% 40 votes
No
47% 40 votes
He'll ride until he is eliminated
4% 4 votes
Believe that a farther shore
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«13

Posts

  • SimmotinoSimmotino Posts: 295

    I say no - He'll quit on the rest day and get ready for London.

    This ^^^

    A couple of early stages will probably be used for some competitive sprint practice and then back to training ready for London.
  • No.

    He'll just decide to not get up for the race one morning and skulk back to Essex
    My Men 2020 - Mark Cavendish, Ben Swift, Fernando Gaviria, Alejandro Valverde, Edvald Boassen Hagen, Zdenek Stybar, Vincenzo Nibali, Geraint Thomas.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 47,999 Lives Here
    If he does he'd be mad.

    Judging from what the Belgians are saying about the route, he won't be anywhere near the front come the mall.
  • EKIMIKEEKIMIKE Posts: 2,232
    Any co-incidence that Ben Swift is now aiming for the road race and dropped out of the track? I remember at last years Romandie one of the DS's touting him as the new Friere. This Olympics course is sounding more and more like a 'sprinters that can climb' course. I'd put my money on Swift even if Cavendish lined up at the start.

    Swift v Boonen in a sprint would be interesting!
  • mrolimroli Posts: 3,622
    If he's in form and feeling good he'll ride it out.

    4 in a row on the Champs d'Elysees? Maybe a record that'd never be beaten. And no reason he couldn't make it 5,6 etc etc....
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 47,999 Lives Here
    EKIMIKE wrote:
    Swift v Boonen in a sprint would be interesting!

    Yeah. For me.
  • tailwindhometailwindhome Posts: 14,701
    3rd option added to poll

    He'll ride until he is eliminated
    Believe that a farther shore
    Is reachable from here.
    Believe in miracles
    And cures and healing wells
  • Tom BBTom BB Posts: 1,001
    I say that he'll finish the TdF.....don't think that he'll win in London though
  • andypandyp Posts: 8,145
    If he does he'd be mad.

    Judging from what the Belgians are saying about the route, he won't be anywhere near the front come the mall.

    It's Box Hill, not La Redoute.

    Factor in the 30 mile run in and a sprint is probable.
  • TusherTusher Posts: 2,762
    He does want that gold medal very badly though.
  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 23,086
    Judging from what the Belgians are saying about the route, he won't be anywhere near the front come the mall.

    On the other hand, the Italians seem to think it's definitely a sprinter's race.

    I think that with only five riders per team, not many of the big teams will want to burn their matches too soon and a fairly conservative race will ensue.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 23,086
    3rd option added to poll

    He'll ride until he is eliminated

    Before you added that I thought it was the most likely - perhaps in conjuction with a 'digestion problem' as some sort of honourable abandon, rather than blatantly leaving.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • Stone GliderStone Glider Posts: 1,227
    I voted that he will finish, also I believe he will win the Paris Stage. On to Box Hill with great legs and tons of confidence, he will win that race too :D

    Recently I read the Half Man Half Bike book about Eddie Merckx, the fans didn't appreciate what a unique talent he was until years after he had finished racing. The same applies to Mr Cavendish.
    The older I get the faster I was
  • yourpaceormineyourpaceormine Posts: 1,231
    ASO would be unlikely to eliminate the rainbow jersey. Don't think Cav will climb off his bike in the rainbow jersey either. If he does go it will be illness and I'd say genuine. The prestige of his jersey just will not let him do it - he has already talked about doing the jersey proud, he won't want his year in rainbow to be remembered as a poor one
  • TMRTMR Posts: 3,986
    I personally feel that the TdF is far more important than the Olympics, so I'd like to see him complete the whole Tour.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 47,999 Lives Here
    RichN95 wrote:
    Judging from what the Belgians are saying about the route, he won't be anywhere near the front come the mall.

    On the other hand, the Italians seem to think it's definitely a sprinter's race.

    I think that with only five riders per team, not many of the big teams will want to burn their matches too soon and a fairly conservative race will ensue.


    Who's going to be the Italian sprinter?

    There was quite a reasonable selection during the warm up race this summer- and that was only one or two jaunts up it.

    It's basically a little less bendy Poggio 9 times. And as ever with sprinters, once they're dropped, most people ahead will want to carry on working. You'd hope / expect most Italians and Belgians to still be there - so they'd certainly work, and a few other nations too.
  • rc856rc856 Posts: 1,139
    I personally feel that the TdF is far more important than the Olympics, so I'd like to see him complete the whole Tour.

    Me too. Being in the rainbow jersey and winning the green jersey and on the Champs Élysées has got to be better.
    Hopefully the Olympic teams from other countries will be equally tired.
  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 23,086

    Who's going to be the Italian sprinter?

    Modolo or Viviani (who is also doing track), seemingly.

    I don't think Box Hill is nearly as big as the Poggio is it? I don't know it very well.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 23,086
    I personally feel that the TdF is far more important than the Olympics, so I'd like to see him complete the whole Tour.

    Generally it is. But there will be another Tour de France next year. There is unlikely to be another sprinter friendly Olympics in Cavendish's career and unlikely to be another British Olympics in any of our lifetimes.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 47,999 Lives Here
    RichN95 wrote:



    I don't think Box Hill is nearly as big as the Poggio is it? I don't know it very well.

    http://www.climbbybike.com/climb.asp?Co ... inID=10887

    http://www.climbbybike.com/climb.asp?co ... ntainID=41

    The stats seem veeery similar.
  • DeadCalmDeadCalm Posts: 3,014
    RichN95 wrote:



    I don't think Box Hill is nearly as big as the Poggio is it? I don't know it very well.

    http://www.climbbybike.com/climb.asp?Co ... inID=10887

    http://www.climbbybike.com/climb.asp?co ... ntainID=41

    The stats seem veeery similar.

    I've not ridden either but from that, if anything, it seems that Box Hill would be marginally the harder. However, as I've found out to my own cost, profiles can be somewhat misleading. Some climbs are simply harder than the profile suggests.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 47,999 Lives Here
    DeadCalm wrote:
    RichN95 wrote:



    I don't think Box Hill is nearly as big as the Poggio is it? I don't know it very well.

    http://www.climbbybike.com/climb.asp?Co ... inID=10887

    http://www.climbbybike.com/climb.asp?co ... ntainID=41

    The stats seem veeery similar.

    I've not ridden either but from that, if anything, it seems that Box Hill would be marginally the harder. However, as I've found out to my own cost, profiles can be somewhat misleading. Some climbs are simply harder than the profile suggests.

    For sure, I'd, having only ridden one, and heard about the other, Box Hill is a little easier because it twists and turns less, and inevitably the surface will be billiard-table smooth - nor will the descent be as technical. But 9 times?

    That's going to do a lot of damage. Even Boonen's not sure he'll get through that, but recons 'on top form' he might - hence his indecision about the Tour.
  • okgookgo Posts: 4,368
    If he's going well and his team are working well for him, I can't see the 9 reps doing too much damage. You get plenty of rest after you go passed that Tex Mex place, also the road will be smooth, and with any luck he won't be taking any wind either.
    Blog on my first and now second season of proper riding/racing - www.firstseasonracing.com
  • I think this is a really tough call, but my best guess at the plan at least (which could be torn up at any time once the race is underway, of course) is for Cav to get some stage wins early on, hang in there in the mid-part of the race, possibly targeting the odd further stage but as much by his own efforts and using other teams as his own team mates, and then (hopefully!) a sky showcase on the Champs-Elysee where his full train, including Wiggo in yellow, set him up for three in a row.
  • BeatmakerBeatmaker Posts: 1,092
    No, I think he'll go for a couple of stage wins, not contest any intermediate sprints and climb off in the mountains, enabling Sky to concentrate in Wiggins yellow jersey campaign. Since to all intents and purposes Sky and the GB team are one and the same, I think their preferred result must be Wiggo winning the Tour and Cav picking up the gold in the Olympics.
  • ProssPross Posts: 22,595
    I think it will depend if Sky are really looking good for yellow. If they are then I can see Cav dropping out on th erest day with a few more stages under his belt leaving Sky to only worry about yellow. If Wiggins has another disaster or a big loss of form I reckon Cav will remain for as long as he is in green jersey contention.
  • bigmatbigmat Posts: 5,108
    Cav wants the Olympics. I think he'll keep riding the tour until he feels it is detrimental to his Olympic prospects. I'm sure he'd love to win on the Champs in the rainbow jersy, but it might be a step too far this year. Don't see Sky supporting him at all for the second half or the Tour if Wiggo going well, other than Eisel. That in itself shouldn't be a problem though as any other team wanting a sprint finish will soon realise that they will have to reel the breakaways in.

    Anyway, on balance I think he'll want to finish, but probably won't.

    As for the Olympics, he has a chance if he is in great form and if he manages to slim down a bit. The route looks attritional. There will be plenty of riders looking to break off the front and by the 7th or 8th time up Box Hill, there will be some tired legs. Not beyond Cav, but it would be a real achievement if he won (e.g. bigger on a performance level than the Worlds).
  • If he makes it to the Champs he quite probably won't be "in" the rainbow jersey. If he is in Green early in the race, I wouldn't imagine he'd want to quit, but if he's not, it'll make the decision easier.

    As pross says though, I would imagine Wiggins' performance will also have a bearing on it.

    As for whether Cav can manage Box Hill, he's been doing alot of training in the Peak District with Rob Hayles on a moped. Not sure what his normal prep is for the Tour, but I'm sure that with the motivation he'll have for London, Box Hill won't be too much trouble for him.
  • ProssPross Posts: 22,595
    As for whether Cav can manage Box Hill, he's been doing alot of training in the Peak District with Rob Hayles on a moped. Not sure what his normal prep is for the Tour, but I'm sure that with the motivation he'll have for London, Box Hill won't be too much trouble for him.

    I'm all for modern training techniques but I think riding a bike might be better preparation ;)
  • tailwindhometailwindhome Posts: 14,701
    Anyone want to change their vote post Giro?
    Believe that a farther shore
    Is reachable from here.
    Believe in miracles
    And cures and healing wells
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