PYMWYMI II - Will Cav finish the TDF?

greasedscotsman

TailWindHome wrote:

Yeah. Have I missed something?

No, I don't think so. I just wanted to check which one you meant, as there are of course two rest days. He could go to the 2nd one in Pau, but that would mean getting though both Alpine mountain stages and the stage to Foix. Don't see it happening.

Yellow Peril

I think it's once bitten twice shy for Cav.

Remember he jacked in the Tour in 2008 for a fruitless Olympics. If he is winning stages in the TdF and in with a sniff of Green he'll stick it out and take his chances in whatever state he is left in for the Olympic chipper.

ddraver

Interestingly, I think that loosing the red jersey could be really useful. No rider is more dangerous than a Cav that made a mistake!

timoid.

Rick Chasey wrote:

Timoid. wrote:

I agree with Rick, I don't think this is the course for Cav. Although he'd be mad not to try. An Olympics at home is something you just have to aim your season at.

Its all academic anyway as Solvakia will be taking away the gold and the green jersey this year.

All things going well, I think you'd be mad to bet against Boonen.

But you think anyone who bets against Boonen is mad

Boonen will definitely be a top threat, but Sagan can outsprint him and is hard enough for the Box Hill loop.

Pip will also feature, I think he's timing his form for it.

Jez mon

greasedscotsman wrote:

Jez mon wrote:

I guess. But I think a yellow jersey, and four years of Olympic champion, would be worth Sky leaving their world champ at home for the TdF

Totally agree. But just don't think it will happen. Think they will play it safe and bank on Cavendish getting some stage wins in the first week.

You're probably right, just depends how calculating Sky/Brailsford are/is willing to be...

He could always "develop" a slight niggle which gets better for the Tour of Poland?

At the end of the day, how much marketing does Sky get from the rainbow jersey? Surely to the muggles who don't follow cycling, the rainbow bands have very little marketability. Kinda like the green jersey, but with less explaining about the "complex" points system, and how Cav won more stages by far than anyone else, but finished more than 100 places behind the race winner.

A gold medal on the other hand....

I would say, as far as flogging kit to cyclists goes, the rainbow stripes are great. But as far as something to put into advertising literature, Olympic Champion, has a certain ring about it...

If Wiggo rides well, few people will care where Cav is. If Cav finishes the tour, but is knackered for the roadrace, his season goes down as a bit of a failure, regardless of whether he gets another green jersey.

ddraver

Jez mon wrote:

I would say, as far as flogging kit to cyclists goes, the rainbow stripes are great. But as far as something to put into advertising literature, Olympic Champion, has a certain ring about it...

I think this is the crucial factor here,My opinion of iain's charts is well established but, lets face it, the vast majority of british people could nt name a single race on them apart from that french one with the yellow t-shirt that the cancer bloke won a lot and the olympics.

He's done more than enough to sell green or stripy things to suckers like us!

iainf72

Wow - You're all so cynical.

I thought the Olympics was about glory for your country. But it turns out it's all about selling shampoo.

:P

ddraver

well for (male) cyclists it kinda is....

Next time in Rio, when there might not/probably won't be a british person with a shot, none of us will care until the PTP thread starts...

rick_chasey

Timoid. wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Timoid. wrote:

I agree with Rick, I don't think this is the course for Cav. Although he'd be mad not to try. An Olympics at home is something you just have to aim your season at.

Its all academic anyway as Solvakia will be taking away the gold and the green jersey this year.

All things going well, I think you'd be mad to bet against Boonen.

But you think anyone who bets against Boonen is mad

Boonen will definitely be a top threat, but Sagan can outsprint him and is hard enough for the Box Hill loop.

.

That entirely depends on whether it's a chipper or not. Chipper = Sagan beats Boonen. Race that matters = Boonen wins.

tailwindhome

Rick Chasey wrote:

That entirely depends on whether it's a chipper or not. Chipper = Sagan beats Boonen. Race that matters = Boonen wins.

Which comes first, winner or categorisation?


I wouldn't underestimate the prestige the Olympic medal will carry for the British public, more so as it's the first medal to be awarded.

oldwelshman

I dont think Cav will complete TDF, no way now he's completed the Giro, he would be fooked if he completed TDF also.
IMO he will gor for a few stage wins, the team will be for Brad with one or two to support Cav, he can win stages alone anyway.
He will pull out when ready and recover for olympics.
av has ckimbed well in the Giro and Box hillis hardly a cat 1 climb is it ? Unles somehow there is break I dont think Bonen or Sagan will win, I think it will end up as sprint due to distance to run in and mubmer of teams who will work to pull race back.
Cav best shot with Swift a joker in our pack. Would like to have had G in road race also.

cycling5280

TailWindHome wrote:

Put your money where your mouth is II

Will Cavendish finish the TDF?

I say no - He'll quit on the rest day and get ready for London.

Will not finish the Tour and will not win in London.

patchy

I think Cav's unlikely to quit the Tour if he's still within a sniff of the green jersey - regardless of whether that's a wise move or not.

cycling5280

Doesn't matter if Cav drops out. Sagan will be wearing green for the next decade.

DeadCalm

Rick Chasey wrote:

If he does he'd be mad.

Judging from what the Belgians are saying about the route, he won't be anywhere near the front come the mall.

Jens may disagree with you:

3h Jens Voigt ‏@thejensie
We are on the famous" la redoute" climb and 2 of my teammates just attacked and went of the front. Of course some counterattacks behind...

I try to keep them in check and its pretty sticky already, and there is 5riders just ahead of me, and then i look to side and guess what???

I see the worldchampion Marc Cavendish in his yellow jersey shifting 2gears bigger and just jumping to the counterattack, totally easy!!!

I could see how Cav thought" i know i am supposed to be a sprinter, but i dont care!!" And he crossed the Hilltop in first place.

I mean the biggest names in cycling used to fight and suffer with this hard and famous climb and then Cav comes along

Cav totally made this climb his bi..atch, i was sooo totally impressed to eyewitness that!! He is a champ, and watch out for him at olymics!

alwaystoohot

Tusher wrote:

He does want that gold medal very badly though.

Is that fire still alight from Beijing or has he achieved more since?

Commercially he needs one for his collection thats for sure.

alanp23

Tusher wrote:

He does want that gold medal very badly though.

+1

I think he craves it. Is he the only one of his peers not to have "turned left" on the BA flight home?*

I also think that if you look back at the end of the season, it will be clear that there was a strategy that was built around getting him in the position to win.

I can't say whether he will or not but I am sure that they (Sky/GB) will have done everything possible to make it happen.

As for the TDF, I think he may surprise on the early lumpy stages. I don't think he will finish.

* Gold medalists always get to fly home first class

tailwindhome

TailWindHome wrote:

Put your money where your mouth is II

Will Cavendish finish the TDF?

I say no - He'll quit on the rest day and get ready for London.

Wrong diddly wrong wrong wrong.

Wrong