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PYMWYMI II - Will Cav finish the TDF?

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  • iainf72iainf72 Posts: 15,784
    Regardless of what happens, I'll have a graph for it.
    Fckin' Quintana … that creep can roll, man.
  • If he does he'd be mad.

    +1 for this
  • rebsrebs Posts: 891
    Think he'll look to finish but wont be looking at any sprint stages in the later end of the 2nd to 3rd weeks cept the last last stage. But this will only happen I think if he gets afew wins in the first week.

    He'll look to at least win afew stages then look to London. Don't think green is a real target this year.
  • TMRTMR Posts: 3,986
    I hope he completes the Tour and gives it 100%.

    As much as I would like him to, I don't think Cav will win the Olympic RR. Just saying...
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 65,382 Lives Here
    I hope he completes the Tour and gives it 100%.

    As much as I would like him to, I don't think Cav will win the Olympic RR. Just saying...

    Welcome to the correct side of the argument.

    How do you do?
  • mr_pollmr_poll Posts: 1,547
    Given every other sprinter jumped ship when the Giro went up - but Cav stayed on to try and win the Red Jersey makes me think that he and Sky have decided that was his chance of a GT points jersey not the Green Jersey at the TDF.

    Tough ask for him to complete 2 grand tours and then be in tip top shape for the Olympic RR over the period of 3 months.
  • TMRTMR Posts: 3,986
    mr_poll wrote:
    Tough ask for him to complete 2 grand tours and then be in tip top shape for the Olympic RR over the period of 3 months.

    It is.

    I think the issue for me is that, even in top form, the parcours is more suited to say, Tom Boonen or Gilbert. I've ridden Box Hill a number of times, it's not that hard a climb, but I believe they are going to do it 9 times. Cav will get dropped on the climb and won't get back on.

    If I were a competing rider, I'd attack on the climb and try and drop him because I know I couldn't outsprint him if he's still in the mix at the end.
  • Jez monJez mon Posts: 3,809
    I honestly don't think he should ride the tour.

    Looking at the stage he lost the other day, it seems clear that he was getting ever so slightly knackered towards the end of the Giro. Now the tour route may not be as arduous, but it's still a grand tour.

    As for Rick's argument...I remain unconvinced, he's a pretty tough cookie when he's in form...
    You live and learn. At any rate, you live
  • greasedscotsmangreasedscotsman Posts: 6,962
    Jez mon wrote:
    I honestly don't think he should ride the tour.

    Said it a while back, I wouldn't take him to the Tour. I would have the entire Sky Team built around Wiggins, I think he will need all the help he can get. Cavendish goes to the Giro to win as many stages as he can, have a pop at the points comp there and then goes to the Olympics. Not sure if he can win it or not, I don't know the course well enough, but he might as well have a go, it's probably his only chance.

    But pretty sure he will be at the Tour, at least until stage 6, then he'll pull out to prepare for the Olympics. Sky would not want to leave their World Champ at home during the biggest race of the year.
  • tailwindhometailwindhome Posts: 18,147
    I'm sticking to my original posting - He'll pack on the rest day.

    I'm even more sure after he finished the Giro.


    2 questions.

    1) Assuming I'm correct, would Sky be better advised not taking him to the tour and having an extra man in support of Wiggins?

    2) If not Cav who's GBs best hope for the Olympics? Geraint Thomas?
    Believe that a farther shore
    Is reachable from here.
    Believe in miracles
    And cures and healing wells
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 65,382 Lives Here
    I'm sticking to my original posting - He'll pack on the rest day.

    I'm even more sure after he finished the Giro.


    2 questions.

    1) Assuming I'm correct, would Sky be better advised not taking him to the tour and having an extra man in support of Wiggins?

    2) If not Cav who's GBs best hope for the Olympics? Geraint Thomas?

    Thomas isn't in the RR.

    Cav is the best hope, but that doesn't mean I think he'll win.

    Someone like Swift up ahead in a break that people won't want to take back for fear of Cavendish might do OK.
  • greasedscotsmangreasedscotsman Posts: 6,962
    I'm sticking to my original posting - He'll pack on the rest day.

    Why go to the rest day? It's the day after the Bescanson TT and the two stages before are quite hilly, one of those finishing on a climb. I reckon he'll pull out after the Metz stage.
  • Jez monJez mon Posts: 3,809
    Jez mon wrote:
    I honestly don't think he should ride the tour.

    Said it a while back, I wouldn't take him to the Tour. I would have the entire Sky Team built around Wiggins, I think he will need all the help he can get. Cavendish goes to the Giro to win as many stages as he can, have a pop at the points comp there and then goes to the Olympics. Not sure if he can win it or not, I don't know the course well enough, but he might as well have a go, it's probably his only chance.

    But pretty sure he will be at the Tour, at least until stage 6, then he'll pull out to prepare for the Olympics. Sky would not want to leave their World Champ at home during the biggest race of the year.

    I guess. But I think a yellow jersey, and four years of Olympic champion, would be worth Sky leaving their world champ at home for the TdF
    You live and learn. At any rate, you live
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 65,382 Lives Here
    What's the advantage of stopping the Tour early anyway?

    People who seem really intent on going for gold are doing Poland.
  • greasedscotsmangreasedscotsman Posts: 6,962
    Jez mon wrote:
    I guess. But I think a yellow jersey, and four years of Olympic champion, would be worth Sky leaving their world champ at home for the TdF

    Totally agree. But just don't think it will happen. Think they will play it safe and bank on Cavendish getting some stage wins in the first week.
  • greasedscotsmangreasedscotsman Posts: 6,962
    What's the advantage of stopping the Tour early anyway?

    How many days are there between the end of the Tour and the Olympic RR? Doesn't give much time to recover.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 65,382 Lives Here
    What's the advantage of stopping the Tour early anyway?

    How many days are there between the end of the Tour and the Olympic RR? Doesn't give much time to recover.

    2 weeks of TdF is going to f*ck your bespoke 1 day training anyway.

    The tour is hard work, even if you're Cavendish. Doing the Tour in not 100% form is super tough on the body.
    Starting the Tour 100%, which I believe nowadays is absolutely necessary, means you've already peaked come the olympics.

    I think they're incompatible.
  • greasedscotsmangreasedscotsman Posts: 6,962
    2 weeks of TdF is going to f*ck your bespoke 1 day training anyway.

    The tour is hard work, even if you're Cavendish. Doing the Tour in not 100% form is super tough on the body.
    Starting the Tour 100%, which I believe nowadays is absolutely necessary, means you've already peaked come the olympics.

    I think they're incompatible.

    So would you send him to Poland then? If it's assumed he wants to have a crack at the Olympics?
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 65,382 Lives Here
    2 weeks of TdF is going to f*ck your bespoke 1 day training anyway.

    The tour is hard work, even if you're Cavendish. Doing the Tour in not 100% form is super tough on the body.
    Starting the Tour 100%, which I believe nowadays is absolutely necessary, means you've already peaked come the olympics.

    I think they're incompatible.

    So would you send him to Poland then? If it's assumed he wants to have a crack at the Olympics?

    For sure.

    I mean, using the TdF as prep. for a race seems utterly mad to me. It's SO fast ALL the time. Relentless in a way other races just aren't, let alone all the press, attention. Especially being the world champ too. He can handle it for sure, but it takes its toll.
  • tailwindhometailwindhome Posts: 18,147
    What's the advantage of stopping the Tour early anyway?

    People who seem really intent on going for gold are doing Poland.


    The advantage of going to the Tour is 5 flat stages before the rest day. I havn't looked at the finishes in detail but I'd think 3 wins out of those 5 would be a reasonable expectation

    Thats 3 stage win in the TDF versus a 'chipper' in Poland.

    Why go to the rest day?

    Marginally more respectful to the tour.
    Believe that a farther shore
    Is reachable from here.
    Believe in miracles
    And cures and healing wells
  • tailwindhometailwindhome Posts: 18,147
    Me wrote:
    The advantage of going to the Tour is 5 flat stages before the rest day. I havn't looked at the finishes in detail but I'd think 3 wins out of those 5 would be a reasonable expectation.


    I'm not a fanboi, I'm not even British, but when you start thinking in these terms about Grand Tour stage wins you know you're talking about a very special rider.
    Believe that a farther shore
    Is reachable from here.
    Believe in miracles
    And cures and healing wells
  • greasedscotsmangreasedscotsman Posts: 6,962
    He'll pack on the rest day.

    You did mean the first rest day, right?
  • tailwindhometailwindhome Posts: 18,147
    2) If not Cav who's GBs best hope for the Olympics? Geraint Thomas?

    Thomas isn't in the RR.

    Cav is the best hope, but that doesn't mean I think he'll win.

    Someone like Swift up ahead in a break that people won't want to take back for fear of Cavendish might do OK.


    Yeah. Forgot Thomas was going round in circles again.
    Believe that a farther shore
    Is reachable from here.
    Believe in miracles
    And cures and healing wells
  • timoid.timoid. Posts: 3,133
    I agree with Rick, I don't think this is the course for Cav. Although he'd be mad not to try. An Olympics at home is something you just have to aim your season at.

    Its all academic anyway as Solvakia will be taking away the gold and the green jersey this year.
    It's a little like wrestling a gorilla. You don't quit when you're tired. You quit when the gorilla is tired.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 65,382 Lives Here
    Timoid. wrote:
    I agree with Rick, I don't think this is the course for Cav. Although he'd be mad not to try. An Olympics at home is something you just have to aim your season at.

    Its all academic anyway as Solvakia will be taking away the gold and the green jersey this year.

    All things going well, I think you'd be mad to bet against Boonen.
  • nferrarnferrar Posts: 2,511
    I reckon a home Olympics gold is worth more to him than a second TdF green jersey (even if the latter might be a better reflection of his ability). He was obviously going for the Giro points jersey, I would have thought he'd have abandoned like the others before the mountains if his main target was TdF green.
    I reckon he'll just try and win a few early stages, ride a bit for the team after and then abandon and prep for the Olympics. I don't really get how you can say the TdF green is worth more - financially and in terms of fame outside of the microcosm of pro cycling the TdF green is nowhere near the same level and given he's already won it I'm betting he's willing to pass on it one year.
  • avoidingmyphdavoidingmyphd Posts: 1,154
    Thats 3 stage win in the TDF versus a 'chipper' in Poland.
    I thought a sprint stage of the TDF was only a chipper?
    The Olympic course is basically the easiest the UCI would let the organisers get away with. So unless Cav is the kind of cyclist who'd never win the olympics anywhere ever, he'll win it. He has a history of winning events that he isn't supposed to be strong enough for.
  • thamacdaddythamacdaddy Posts: 590
    I want him to do the tour all the way.

    I want to see what I haven't seen before, and what everyone here is saying can't be done, a dual attack on green and yellow by one team.

    I honestly think it would be amazing for him to do all that and then go for gold. No one will question the balls of that. If he climbs off or doesn't go to the tour no matter everyone here now says he should do that, all that will happen is he will be criticized, probably.

    Either way I think his team, trainers and himself will do what they think they can do successfully. I would be very suprised if he starts the Tour and climbs off before the end if he feels he can go on. Every race is a risk, you would feel worse climbing off while doing well in the Tour to get dropped or crash out of the olympics
  • B3rnieMacB3rnieMac Posts: 384
    I want him to do the tour all the way.

    I want to see what I haven't seen before, and what everyone here is saying can't be done, a dual attack on green and yellow by one team.


    Telekom, 1997, won yellow and green - Der Jan and Zabel.
  • tailwindhometailwindhome Posts: 18,147
    Thats 3 stage win in the TDF versus a 'chipper' in Poland.
    I thought a sprint stage of the TDF was only a chipper?


    It's not. There's a chart somewhere.
    He'll pack on the rest day.

    You did mean the first rest day, right?


    Yeah. Have I missed something?
    Believe that a farther shore
    Is reachable from here.
    Believe in miracles
    And cures and healing wells
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