Put your money were your mouth is - Will Wiggins win TDF?

13

Comments

  • calvjones
    calvjones Posts: 3,850
    iainf72 wrote:
    Cogidubnus wrote:
    Winner, he climbs as well as Evans and is a better TT'er

    Is he the better TT'er in the 3'rd week of a race when contending for the GC.

    I say no.

    What iain said. A fit Evans and a fit Brad will be very evenly matched.

    On the upside I can see BMC and Sky sharing pulling duties as they both seem like honest, hardworking squads. The biggest threat to Wiggo was Sky being knackered by a week in as no other sprinters teams would want to pull Cav to the finish of flat stages.
    ___________________

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  • Monty Zoncolan
    Monty Zoncolan Posts: 341
    Right now Wiggins is as good a bet as anyone. Big deal one might say, as the best riders know exactly how to peak.

    Singling a particular rider out and considering if they will win is fraught as there are so many uncorntrollable factors which could hamper (or indeed improve) their invididual chances, from an injury, virus, loss of team mates, time-costly crash, mechanical, poor weather in a time trial situation, etc etc. However, assuming that by and large these issues could affect any contender, for me it comes down to this: Is he talented enough? Yes. Is the parcours one he could succeed on? Yes. Will he be in form? As much as we can tell, yes. Can he perform day in, day out when the going gets tough? This is the bit I'm unsure about. Last year's race arguably (and for me) was won in the last week with a block of mountain stages where all of the contenders did well on individual days, but Evans performed on every day. That is of course a very demanding thing, requiring fitness, mental resilience, experience and a bit of good fortune no doubt as well. The closer he is to winning as the stages unfold, the more he'll be attacked.

    I cast my mind back to the 2009 Tour when Wiggins was going great guns and sitting in third, only to lose time on one of the last mountain stages as Armstrong got away from him. In a completely unscientific way, I have a nagging feeling that however well Wiggins is going, something like that will happen again.

    I will, needless to say, be delighted to be proven wrong!
  • phreak
    phreak Posts: 2,907
    Is the 2012 version of Wiggins better than the 2009 version? You'd have to say so.

    Is the competition as strong now as it was then? With Contador missing and the route nullifying Schleck I don't think it is.

    Is the team stronger? I think the Sky squad is better than the squad Wiggins had in 2009.
  • TMR
    TMR Posts: 3,986
    I hope these words don't come back to haunt me, but I don't think he's good enough to win. Podium? For sure.
  • TMR
    TMR Posts: 3,986
    phreak wrote:
    Is the team stronger? I think the Sky squad is better than the squad Wiggins had in 2009.

    It may be, but they have split priorities.
  • bigmat
    bigmat Posts: 5,134
    phreak wrote:

    Is the team stronger? I think the Sky squad is better than the squad Wiggins had in 2009.


    That's a tricky one. Millar / Van de Velde / Zabriskie - he had good support that year. And no Cav to worry about (Farrar doesn't count!)

    I agree that 2012 Wiggins is a major step up from 2009 Wiggins though.
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  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,737
    The Mad Rapper wrote:
    phreak wrote:
    Is the team stronger? I think the Sky squad is better than the squad Wiggins had in 2009.

    It may be, but they have split priorities.

    I don't think they do.

    Wiggins is #1. Cavendish winning stages is #2 priority. Significantly #2.

    That's clear. Cavendish went to sky because they pay him big bucks, not because he would get a dedicated team in the Tour. He knew he'd be in a team with someone who'd be treated as a big favourite for the Tour.

    In that respect, I think Cavendish is very professional. He'll do the job he's paid to do!
    _
  • TMR
    TMR Posts: 3,986
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    I don't think they do.

    Wiggins is #1. Cavendish winning stages is #2.

    That's clear. Cavendish went to sky because they pay him big bucks, not because he would get a dedicated team in the Tour. He knew he'd be in a team with someone who'd be treated as a big favourite for the Tour.

    In that respect, I think Cavendish is very professional. He'll do the job he's paid to do!

    Dave Brailsford himself has said that they are setting their stall out to win the Tour and the Green jersey, not that one was more of a priority than the other. We all know that Cav can jump on someone else's train and still win, but if I were him I'd feel pretty pissed off if the team wouldn't ride on Sprint stages.
  • Monty Zoncolan
    Monty Zoncolan Posts: 341
    Priorities will no doubt be assessed and re-calibrated between now and the last stage of the TDF, but I get the impression that (a) Cav appreciates that Wiggo's GC tilt is the big priority this year and (b) he's OK with that.
  • woody1545
    woody1545 Posts: 322
    I reckon podium. I think going for Yellow and Green is asking too much, although when you have a genuine tour contender and the Fastest Man on Earth (tm) I suppose you don't have much choice.

    If he does win I can't see him getting in Yellow until the time trial on the penultimate day like Evans did last year. Hopefully Martins and Spartacus will have already dropped out by then, to concentrate on the Olympics, so he can avoid the list of tour winners without a stage victory.
  • Turfle
    Turfle Posts: 3,762
    Dave_1 wrote:
    Wiggins got third in Vuelta but he was in Froome's slipstream on the big mountains and towed to that position until even Froome couldn't wait for him anymore or lose the Vuelta. This is not the climbing of a TDF winner..and there was very little to test Wiggo's climbing at Romandie or Paris Nice that will indicate his climbing at TDF. Wait till Dauphine to see how Wiggo climbs. He's proven he can last 3 weeks and TT superbly now..but let's see something what his climbing is like in June..he nearly cracked at the last Dauphine on one mountain so he is perhaps vulnerable to big time losses when Schlek or Evans throw down the big hammer .

    Very unfair to say Wiggins "nearly cracked" at the Dauphine, when Evans DID crack on that stage.
  • On_What
    On_What Posts: 516
    Well I will say he has a very good chance, and I hope he will take it.

    The Schleks cannot climb without looking in the rear view the whole time, and looked poor in LBL. Evans is a little unknown and may well be saving himself. I feel Wiggins may have more of a threat from lesser known parties. It will be interesting to see how it pans out, and I am absolutely rooting for the guy - but trying not to get carried away!
  • Abdoujaparov
    Abdoujaparov Posts: 642
    Wiggins has got a great chance, but there are definitely more question marks about him than Evans who I think is rightly favourite.

    I wonder if Evans will be hungry enough though? Could definitely see Brad being more prepared to suffer in training.
  • inseine
    inseine Posts: 5,786
    Dave Brailsford himself has said that they are setting their stall out to win the Tour and the Green jersey, not that one was more of a priority than the other.

    I can't believe that for a second!
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  • dave_1
    dave_1 Posts: 9,512
    Turfle wrote:
    Dave_1 wrote:
    Wiggins got third in Vuelta but he was in Froome's slipstream on the big mountains and towed to that position until even Froome couldn't wait for him anymore or lose the Vuelta. This is not the climbing of a TDF winner..and there was very little to test Wiggo's climbing at Romandie or Paris Nice that will indicate his climbing at TDF. Wait till Dauphine to see how Wiggo climbs. He's proven he can last 3 weeks and TT superbly now..but let's see something what his climbing is like in June..he nearly cracked at the last Dauphine on one mountain so he is perhaps vulnerable to big time losses when Schlek or Evans throw down the big hammer .

    Very unfair to say Wiggins "nearly cracked" at the Dauphine, when Evans DID crack on that stage.

    but when Evans cracks on a climb in a training event for him, we already know what level he can climb at when on full form as he's been second in TDF before and so climbed very well, whereas with Wiggo struggling with accelerations at Dauphine when he doesn't have previous super climbing form/TDF GC results like Evans has shown, it becomes more noteworthy and is fair to ask, can Wiggo handle the climbs? Can Wiggins handle Andy and Franch Schlek and Evans attacking him two cols from the finish this July?
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  • bigmat
    bigmat Posts: 5,134
    He has to hope his team is strong enough to ride at such a fast tempo that any attack will have to be all or nothing rather than repeated attempts to tire him out. I reckon Sky will be able to do that most days, but Wiggins might find himself exposed at some point. Chances for the likes of Schleck will be few and far between though, and he isn't generally the best at taking his chances.
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  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,737
    BigMat wrote:
    Chances for the likes of Schleck will be few and far between though, and he isn't generally the best at taking his chances.

    That's just not true.
    _
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,737
    Schlecks may be horrific in TTs, but don't under-estimate how good they are in the mountains.

    They're better than Evans and certainly better than Wiggins.

    Andy is anyway.

    There's only one rider who is better than Andy in the mountains and that's Contador.

    Even then, uphill, the difference is small.
    _
  • dave_1
    dave_1 Posts: 9,512
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Schlecks may be horrific in TTs, but don't under-estimate how good they are in the mountains.

    They're better than Evans and certainly better than Wiggins.

    Andy is anyway.

    There's only one rider who is better than Andy in the mountains and that's Contador.

    Even then, uphill, the difference is small.


    If Andy is aggressive in 2012 as he was in the Alps at the 2011 TDF..attacking with two cols to go each day, making long breaks...then Wiggo will struggle..Evans could hang on and win the TDF again..! But , I am going to make a guess..age is catching up with Evans and what we see this year is probably a natural decline. I was surprised by his Tour of Romandie, especially the TT at Crans Montana...Indurain went down very fast..1995 to 1996-career over for Mig
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  • finchy
    finchy Posts: 6,686
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    There's only one rider who is better than Andy in the mountains and that's Contador.

    I reckon Andy has become a better climber than even Contador in the past couple of years.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,737
    johnfinch wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    There's only one rider who is better than Andy in the mountains and that's Contador.

    I reckon Andy has become a better climber than even Contador in the past couple of years.

    Perhaps.

    We write them off, but someone like Wiggins can only give them so much room.
    _
  • finchy
    finchy Posts: 6,686
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    johnfinch wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    There's only one rider who is better than Andy in the mountains and that's Contador.

    I reckon Andy has become a better climber than even Contador in the past couple of years.

    Perhaps.

    We write them off, but someone like Wiggins can only give them so much room.

    Something like 100 TT kms - how much time can he give to Schleck on the mountains - a few minutes, maybe?
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,737
    johnfinch wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    johnfinch wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    There's only one rider who is better than Andy in the mountains and that's Contador.

    I reckon Andy has become a better climber than even Contador in the past couple of years.

    Perhaps.

    We write them off, but someone like Wiggins can only give them so much room.

    Something like 100 TT kms - how much time can he give to Schleck on the mountains - a few minutes, maybe?

    You'd start getting squeeky bum time if Andy has more than two - two and a half minutes I recon.
    _
  • bigmat
    bigmat Posts: 5,134
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    BigMat wrote:
    Chances for the likes of Schleck will be few and far between though, and he isn't generally the best at taking his chances.

    That's just not true.

    It will be if Sky get their tactics / performance right. Keep the pace high and constant which will suit Wiggins. It'll also help Evans so BMC may well cooperate. That will make it a lot more difficult to attack off the front, certainly it would have to be a committed attack, and however good the Galibier stage attack from Schleck was, he didn't really make it stick did he? The other contenders came back to him on the final climb and time gaps weren't massive. And he managed that once, in three weeks. I just don't think it'll be easy for him to zoom off the front every mountain stage. There will be opportunities, but not that many (in my opinion).
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  • finchy
    finchy Posts: 6,686
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    johnfinch wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    johnfinch wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    There's only one rider who is better than Andy in the mountains and that's Contador.

    I reckon Andy has become a better climber than even Contador in the past couple of years.

    Perhaps.

    We write them off, but someone like Wiggins can only give them so much room.

    Something like 100 TT kms - how much time can he give to Schleck on the mountains - a few minutes, maybe?

    You'd start getting squeeky bum time if Andy has more than two - two and a half minutes I recon.

    Yeah, squeaky bum, but I think that a time gap of up to 3 minutes is manageable. Assuming that last year's TdF TT was as good as it gets for Andy, he lost 2 mins 31 s to Cadel Evans over 42.5 km. So I'm going to assume that Wiggins could take back 3 minutes over the TT kms this year.
  • phreak
    phreak Posts: 2,907
    In 2010 over 52km Wiggins took the best part of 3 minutes out of Schleck.
  • inkyfingers
    inkyfingers Posts: 4,400
    Unless Schleck has put in some serious work on his TT I think Wiggins will take 4 minutes out of him in the combined TTs. I also suspect that Wiggins will take time out of Evans in the TTs, though nowhere near as much...could work out well as Evans would then have to drop Wiggins on the climbs.

    If Andy properly goes for it like he did last year (i.e. attacks with 50KM to go on a couple of stages) then I think we might see Evans and Wiggins working together to bring him back as they both have a similar climbing style.
    "I have a lovely photo of a Camargue horse but will not post it now" (Frenchfighter - July 2013)
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,737
    Wiggins took roughly a minute out of Andy in the Annecy TT.

    Andy also TT'd better in the 2010 final TT than 2009.

    Last year wasn't good for Andy TT wise though.

    It's interesting. Andy's not totally out of it. That's all I really meant.
    _
  • TMR
    TMR Posts: 3,986
    Ooh! The poll is getting close! ;)
  • finchy
    finchy Posts: 6,686
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    It's interesting. Andy's not totally out of it. That's all I really meant.

    No, Andy definitely isn't out of it. I always have to laugh when people post that Andy will be an eternal second just because he hasn't won the TdF at the age of 26.

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