Put your money were your mouth is - Will Wiggins win TDF?

Turfle

I really don't know.

I think Evans has become somewhat overrated in the mountains due to his terrific Tour performance.
Schleck could rip the legs off everyone on the climbs, but his weakness is a big one. Samuel Sanchez will surely be there or thereabouts, but probably not quite there. Nibali I'm not sure about. Menchov if he's on form poses a real threat, as on his day he's a great climber, and can TT.

There is a good amount of climbing, but no Zoncolan or Angliru. It's hard to see quite where Schleck will put significant time into Wiggins.

If it was a 3 week race and not THE TOUR DE FRANCE I'd be more inclined to say yes.

mroli

RichN95 wrote:

while there's going to be little in the way of dedicated support it's likely that all the riders except Froome and Porte will be ex-HTC Columbia riders and therefore able to put an effective lead-out together in the last 5-10km without to much drain on the riders.

But what you forget there is that if (for example) Wiggins is in Yellow and it is a flat day, Sky will be expected to pull everyone else along all day - double because Cav is favourite for the sprint. Then they'll have to do it all over again in the mountains. It won't be a matter of just doing the last 5-10km. Basically Pate (and someone else) are going to have to get used to sticking it out on the front of the peloton for 3 weeks. They are going to earn every penny of their wages in the tour.

Ringo 68 wrote:

I have seen great riders launch attacks on the Tour which has put them in positions to win but I have never seen Wiggins launch any sort of attack anywhere.

Last year Vuelta. Wiggins and Froome worked people over uphill by effectively setting a pace that people could not live with. Cross-winds, riding in the gutter to ensure there is no draft and TT their socks off. Not a traditional explosive attack, but still an attack.

Turfle

mroli wrote:

But what you forget there is that if (for example) Wiggins is in Yellow and it is a flat day, Sky will be expected to pull everyone else along all day - double because Cav is favourite for the sprint. Then they'll have to do it all over again in the mountains. It won't be a matter of just doing the last 5-10km. Basically Pate (and someone else) are going to have to get used to sticking it out on the front of the peloton for 3 weeks. They are going to earn every penny of their wages in the tour.

There will be other teams, notably Greenedge and Argos, who will want every flat and nearly-flat stage to go to a sprint. Those teams are geared entirely to winning sprints. Unlike HTC, Sky won't be left on their own there.

RichN95.

mroli wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

while there's going to be little in the way of dedicated support it's likely that all the riders except Froome and Porte will be ex-HTC Columbia riders and therefore able to put an effective lead-out together in the last 5-10km without to much drain on the riders.

But what you forget there is that if (for example) Wiggins is in Yellow and it is a flat day, Sky will be expected to pull everyone else along all day - double because Cav is favourite for the sprint. Then they'll have to do it all over again in the mountains. It won't be a matter of just doing the last 5-10km. Basically Pate (and someone else) are going to have to get used to sticking it out on the front of the peloton for 3 weeks. They are going to earn every penny of their wages in the tour.

If Wiggins finds himself in yellow too early, they'll do what US Postal used to and deliberately lose it to a no hoper on a French team

iainf72

phreak wrote:

When they've raced against each other in 2009 Wiggins beat Evans by 20 seconds. I know Evans wasn't on form then but it's fair to say Wiggins is a much better rider now too so don't see how you can say he's going to tank the final TT.

If you do a CQ Ranking and do head2head for Cadel and Brad they split about 50/50 in terms of TT's.

I'm not saying he's going to tank but there is a difference between monstering everyone in a TT in a week long race and at the end of a 3 week race. If you look at the top of the final TT's it's quite often different to the usual TT results as by then it's all about who's recovering well and things like that.

Remember when Sastre won the Tour? Many people thought Evans would take him in the final TT because on paper he was the better guy against the clock.

Rod Ellingworth talked a bit about this in a podcast a while ago as well.

Also, I think if you look at Radioshack they can probably put together a team which could make the race really hard.

greasedscotsman

Let's not forget that Evans has a very similar "problem" to the one Wiggins has with Cavendish. I assume that both Hushovd and Gilbert will be at the Tour.

I managing the Sky team I would be sending Cavendish to the Giro to have a crack at the points classification there and then the Olympics and have the entire TdF squad riding for Brad. I feel he has a very good chance this year, but needs everything in his favour.

But that won't happen of course. Cavendish will start the TdF and pull out before the first TT to prepare for the Olympics.

No_Ta_Doctor

Personally I've reckoned for a while that he'll get a podium, and his performances in P-R and Romandie have convinced me he's got a bloody good shot at the yellow. I've been impressed by his positioning and concentration, I think he's riding smarter now.

His climbing is pretty good, and he's smart enough not to blow up chasing attacks - he knows his limits and rides to them (in his Worlds TT silver ride he didn't have a radio, just rode to his own ability, while Cancelara panicked when he heard he was losing time to Martin and ended up losing it on a corner).

Looking back to the Vuelta it was probably only the savagery of L'Angliru that stopped him winning it. The other climbs he TTed up.

On paper it's between him and Evans. I can't see Andy Schleck being able to do enough damage on the climbs to compensate for his abysmal TT.

Obviously plenty of luck needed, but this is the first time I've ever seen a real chance of a British rider winning a TdF.

No_Ta_Doctor

RichN95 wrote:

mroli wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

while there's going to be little in the way of dedicated support it's likely that all the riders except Froome and Porte will be ex-HTC Columbia riders and therefore able to put an effective lead-out together in the last 5-10km without to much drain on the riders.

But what you forget there is that if (for example) Wiggins is in Yellow and it is a flat day, Sky will be expected to pull everyone else along all day - double because Cav is favourite for the sprint. Then they'll have to do it all over again in the mountains. It won't be a matter of just doing the last 5-10km. Basically Pate (and someone else) are going to have to get used to sticking it out on the front of the peloton for 3 weeks. They are going to earn every penny of their wages in the tour.

If Wiggins finds himself in yellow too early, they'll do what US Postal used to and deliberately lose it to a no hoper on a French team

And the longer TV Tommy holds onto it the better ;-)

josame

my shout is yes esp with majors pulls in the mountains by froome (if well) and EBH (one of last years was pdg)

RichN95.

Would anyone disagree with me that the team (barring injuries) will be:

Wiggins, Porte, Froome, Rogers, Sivtsov, Pate, Boasson Hagen, Eisel, Cavendish

Turfle

That's the 9 I have too.

Tusher

I have a niggle that Froome won't be fully recovered by July.

RichN95.

Tusher wrote:

I have a niggle that Froome won't be fully recovered by July.

He looked pretty good this week. I know he came 100 and something on GC, but he was doing some big pulls on the front of the peloton. He did one on Saturday which took the final minute out of the break (and about six strong riders trying to bridge) in an amazingly short time.

bigmat

I see him as the genuine favourite right now, not just looking through red white and blue tinted glasses. I was pleased to see him looking a bit tired and stretched in the last few stages of Romandie suggests to me that he is not on peak form yet and yet still winning. I actually think he could have won last year's tour, his form was immense and he was peaking at just the right time. I remember the shock in Cav's voice when he heard he'd crashed out and he sounded genuinely gutted, like he knew Wiggo had a real chance. As for attacking, expect Indurain style "attacks" if his form is as good as I think it might be - use Rogers, Porte and hoefully Froome to set a killer pace then take it on with a few km to go, on the right kind of climb (and the tour is full of them) I can see him riding away from most of the peloton of he gets everything right.

As for Evans, is he maybe getting a bit overrated? Great ride last year, but he was lucky with a lot of contenders crashing out and Bertie cooked from the Giro. Plus he seemed to be in the form of his life. Until last year he was seen as past his best at GT level and it will be interesting to see whether he can get his form back to that level. I'm not convinced. Also funny how people point to his final week time trial last year but forget his failures against Contador and Sastre in previous years. Good guy though, I hope he arrives in form.

Who else is there? Menchov could be a threat, Van Den Broek will be focused on it, Nibali, Schleck? - it will take some epic performances for a climber to win it this year. The biggest threat could well turn out to be someone from completely leftfield riding a stormer a la Cobo at the Vuelta (he's been quiet this year - I wonder...)

RichN95.

BigMat wrote:

As for Evans, is he maybe getting a bit overrated? Great ride last year, but he was lucky with a lot of contenders crashing out and Bertie cooked from the Giro. Plus he seemed to be in the form of his life. Until last year he was seen as past his best at GT level and it will be interesting to see whether he can get his form back to that level. I'm not convinced. Also funny how people point to his final week time trial last year but forget his failures against Contador and Sastre in previous years. Good guy though, I hope he arrives in form.

The thing with Evans is, to use horse racing parlance, he has proven form over course and distance - and that counts for a lot. Despite having a bad Romandie, a usual tester for him, I still see him as clear favourite.

Turfle

Interesting thing about the mountains is that Evans and Wiggins would both like a strong, steady, attack-unfriendly pace set up the climbs. Sky and BMC could really strangle the life out of most mountain stages. The danger is on those multi-climb stages if Wiggins finds himself with just Porte for company. At that point Radioshack can fire riders up the road.

RichN95.

Turfle wrote:

Interesting thing about the mountains is that Evans and Wiggins would both like a strong, steady, attack-unfriendly pace set up the climbs. Sky and BMC could really strangle the life out of most mountain stages. The danger is on those multi-climb stages if Wiggins finds himself with just Porte for company. At that point Radioshack can fire riders up the road.

The problem with Radioshack firing riders up the road is that the person calling the shots has in his career as DS shown himself to use one tactic - the one that you rightly suggest Sky and BMC should use. Can he adapt or is it like asking FC Barcelona to play a long ball game.

And Sky will have more than just Porte, I think. In my suggested team, there's five riders, including Wiggins, who have been top ten in a Grand Tour.

I remember the 2004 & 2005 Tours. Patriotic Brits had to pretend Backstedt, McEwen and Cioni were British. There may only be four Brits in 2012, but times have certainly changed.

Turfle

RichN95 wrote:

Turfle wrote:

Interesting thing about the mountains is that Evans and Wiggins would both like a strong, steady, attack-unfriendly pace set up the climbs. Sky and BMC could really strangle the life out of most mountain stages. The danger is on those multi-climb stages if Wiggins finds himself with just Porte for company. At that point Radioshack can fire riders up the road.

The problem with Radioshack firing riders up the road is that the person calling the shots has in his career as DS shown himself to use one tactic - the one that you rightly suggest Sky and BMC should use. Can he adapt or is it like asking FC Barcelona to play a long ball game.

And Sky will have more than just Porte, I think. In my suggested team, there's five riders, including Wiggins, who have been top ten in a Grand Tour.

I remember the 2004 & 2005 Tours. Patriotic Brits had to pretend Backstedt, McEwen and Cioni were British. There may only be four Brits in 2012, but times have certainly changed.

You'd think with the amount of TT kilometres in the race, that Schleck will be going in with an attacking mindset. The problem is he doesn't seem to realise how awful a time trialist he is.

If the Sky fivesome were all riding their own race, then sure they'd all hope to be there on the final climb. But if their plan, day after day, is to force the pace on the final climb there could well be a wearing down process. They just have to be careful they don't try and control more than they can control. As well as they controlled the race in Romandie, even yesterday they were left with only Porte to pace Wiggins on the final climb. I'm sure a calculation went into that, but even so.

Times certainly have changed. Not only are we, bizarrely, talking about the possibility of a British rider challenging at the Tour, but before that there are five Brits riding the Giro for Sky, and all of them good quality riders. Heady days.

liquor box

I was lucky enough to get on Wiggins at 9/1, he is now 2/1 in Australia.

If he is still in the race in Paris then I think he will win, he looked very comfortable when I have seen him this year and I think he has all of the skills to win.

If he does not win then I fear it will be because he had pulled out of the event, if this was to happen very early then I think that Michael Rogers will get into the top 3, and think he could win the GC.

dave_1

Wiggins got third in Vuelta but he was in Froome's slipstream on the big mountains and towed to that position until even Froome couldn't wait for him anymore or lose the Vuelta. This is not the climbing of a TDF winner..and there was very little to test Wiggo's climbing at Romandie or Paris Nice that will indicate his climbing at TDF. Wait till Dauphine to see how Wiggo climbs. He's proven he can last 3 weeks and TT superbly now..but let's see something what his climbing is like in June..he nearly cracked at the last Dauphine on one mountain so he is perhaps vulnerable to big time losses when Schlek or Evans throw down the big hammer .

phreak

If the Vuelta had a time trial in the last week though would anyone here have betted against Wiggins winning it?

bigmat

@Phreak

Froome might have won then. We have to remember though that Wiggins was coming back from injury and almost certainly wasn't in top shape.

@Dave_1, I agree there's a risk he could crack on a big mountain stage, but I think that and crashing / sickness are the only risks now.

dave_1

phreak wrote:

If the Vuelta had a time trial in the last week though would anyone here have betted against Wiggins winning it?

true, i agree..the TDF course favours wiggins but Froome did a hell of a TT in the first week of the vuelta I think too...this could be REALLY close between the two of them

dave_1

BigMat wrote:

@Phreak

Froome might have won then. We have to remember though that Wiggins was coming back from injury and almost certainly wasn't in top shape.

@Dave_1, I agree there's a risk he could crack on a big mountain stage, but I think that and crashing / sickness are the only risks now.

I can't decide re Wiggo's injury. His 2009 TDF climbing looked like he was hanging on for dear life a lot of the time..and in the Vuelta 2011 too...he had a week of TDF in his legs and top form so the time off to let collar bone heal might not have been so detrimental and he had time to recover form in August..wasn't close to Vuelta. so from the 2009 and 2011 grand tour climbing form Bradley showed I wonder if that might be his limit. 2009 and 2011 look so similar in terms of Brad's climbing. Time will tell. I hope Wiggins wins TDF though.

inseine

Funny how things change. Seems like everyone was saying last year was Evans one and only chance to win the Tour, now he's favorite. Also that Sky's five year plan was a smokescreen, but that suddenly seems doable. Taking Contador out of the equation has changed everything.
FWIW I think Wiggins will do it.

rick_chasey

Of course, Evans so far hasn't had the best run in. Illness etc.

ddraver

Well....

I think he.is as near as dammit nailed on for a podium place. That plus.the recent victories can be spun into a great season for sky and soothe.the.hurt of the classics. He has as genuine a chance of winning ad anyone else in the race I reckon. Yes he ll need some luck, sky will have make judicious choices of when to pull - and that doesn't mean pull all the time, cav s chances be dammed - bit that's true for BMC too. Anything less than a podium will be.abject failure really!

The most important job for.the Sky DS will beakimg sure they dont become the new HTC.because.of.Cav

rick_chasey

He'll need to get a little lucky too.

The Tour has a pretty high attrition rate. Those Belgian roads are quite crash friendly.

Pross

I think he'll win but there are too many variables for me to say definitively that he will win so I went for podium. Are there any particularly steep climbs? My memory of the route launch is that there's nothing severe and it was really only the severity of the Angliru that caused in problems in the Vuelta last season.

Pross

I also don't think that having a team split for Cav and Wiggo will be a problem as it is likely that Wiggins could be in yellow after stage 9 and the likes of Eisel and Stannard will serve both masters when controlling the race. They won't be much help in the mountains but will be crucial to maintaining yellow as well as winning green. A team of climbing domestiques wouldn't be much use on the transition stages when people might try to put Wiggins under pressure.