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Put your money were your mouth is - Will Wiggins win TDF?

tailwindhometailwindhome Posts: 14,412
edited June 2012 in Pro race
Well not money but you know...

Will Wiggins win the TDF?

(I'll change the thread title later)

I'm going no > Top 5 finish.

Will Brad win the Tour? 112 votes

Yes
41% 47 votes
No - but he'll be on the Podium
40% 45 votes
No - Top 5 but off the podium
8% 10 votes
No - 5th to 10th
6% 7 votes
No - Not even Top 10
2% 3 votes
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Posts

  • inkyfingersinkyfingers Posts: 4,397
    I've voted for him to get on the podium, but he could win if he arrives in 100% form and has some luck.
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  • tailwindhometailwindhome Posts: 14,412
    Er. Anonymous voting isn't putting you money were your mouth is.
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  • NervexProfNervexProf Posts: 4,202
    Brad oozes talent, but the question is: 'Does he have the grinta' ?
    My impression is that he is vulnerable to setbacks but I would so enjoy his proving me wrong, wrong and wrong again.
    I vote for a podium finish.
    Common sense in an uncommon degree is what the world calls wisdom
  • mrolimroli Posts: 3,622
    I think Podium. I think if Sky took a team just to get Wiggins to yellow (ie Rogers, Lofkvist, Nordhaug, Porte, Froome, Sivuvustov (sp?!), Uran, Pate, Wiggins), he could win, but I think they will give Cav some support and allow EBH to hunt stages and that will weaken the Sky team sufficiently to mean that at some stage he gets exposed in the Mountains.

    I hope I'm wrong, but Sky could take a team dedicated to ensuring they win it and they won't. But he's classy enough to virtually do it anyway with a fair wind.
  • Ringo 68Ringo 68 Posts: 441
    Podium for me but I don't think that he can stay with Evans/Schlek in the mountains when the attacks come.
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  • graeme_s-2graeme_s-2 Posts: 3,382
    I'm saying yes he will, which is probably a bit optimistic. Realistically I think he'll make the podium, but with so much TT'ing this time he could win it. if he doesn't win it this year then I don't think he ever will. He's in great shape, he's got a lot of confidence, I can see him limiting his losses effectively in the mountains, then blitzing the TTs and riding into Paris in yellow.
  • Yes.

    I can't see anyone who he'll be up against in the mountains really blowing it apart and causing him time losses that he can't make up in the time trial.

    Evans is as good in the time trial but just as good in the mountains. Nibs isn't good enough on the mountains. Andy Schleck can put minutes into him in the mountains which he'll more than lose in the TT.
    My Men 2020 - Mark Cavendish, Ben Swift, Fernando Gaviria, Alejandro Valverde, Edvald Boassen Hagen, Zdenek Stybar, Vincenzo Nibali, Geraint Thomas.
  • Ringo 68Ringo 68 Posts: 441
    How many TT's are there in this years Tour?
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  • graeme_s-2graeme_s-2 Posts: 3,382
    Ringo 68 wrote:
    How many TT's are there in this years Tour?
    Prologue - 6.1km
    Stage 9 - 38km ITT
    Stage 19 - 52km ITT
  • Ringo 68Ringo 68 Posts: 441
    Graeme_S wrote:
    Ringo 68 wrote:
    How many TT's are there in this years Tour?
    Prologue - 6.1km
    Stage 9 - 38km ITT
    Stage 19 - 52km ITT

    Ah thanks, didn't realise there was a TT in the middle of the race.

    Is that normal? I thought there was usually just a Prologue and a TT on the penultimate day.
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  • Judging by the way the tour panned out last year, had Brad been there, I think he'd have had an excellent shot at a podium if not winning. He was quite aggressive on some climbs in 2009 when he was fit and with a team around him.
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  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 46,579 Lives Here
    It's still tough to say.

    For sure, everything is pointing in the right direction, but 3 weeks is so different to one week.

    I remember in 2009 he seemed to lose a little in week three - his annecy TT wasn't the best.

    Evans rides a very fast TT - especially in third week TTs, and he's no slouch.


    Just because he's less of an uknown and has more experience racing for overall in a GT, you've got to put Evans ahead of Wiggins.

    Can't really see past those two though.

    If the Schlecks are in good form they'll be really very exciting in the mountains.
  • Tom BBTom BB Posts: 1,001
    I went for podium....I think that he'll run Evans close, but just maybe Evans will stick with a Schleck acceleration that Wiggo cant go with, and just maybe Evans' TT will hold up better in the 3rd week (Brad lost time to Froome in the TT in the Vuelta as I remember?)

    I very undecided though....Evans has the past form and experience, but Wiggo ceratinly has the better form this year
  • finchyfinchy Posts: 6,889
    Yes, Wiggins will win. I think.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 46,579 Lives Here
    Having said all that, Evans was a good 100 seconds down today. He's been ill right?
  • iainf72iainf72 Posts: 15,774
    He's in very good form and the Tour route suits him. However, everyone now knows what kind of form he's in now and I think that will count against him somewhat. His team could also end up stretched with Cavendish, especially if they lost a couple of riders through crashes.
    Fckin' Quintana … that creep can roll, man.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 46,579 Lives Here
    iainf72 wrote:
    He's in very good form and the Tour route suits him. However, everyone now knows what kind of form he's in now and I think that will count against him somewhat. His team could also end up stretched with Cavendish, especially if they lost a couple of riders through crashes.

    I'm not sure how much him being a favourite will count against him.

    He's not really one to launch the kind of attack where that counts!
  • David Harmon made a good point yesterday about "back in the day" when the favourites would all gang up against the big favourite. But it doesn't seem to happen nowadays, I mean you can't see people specifically attacking early in the mountains to test his team.
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  • gsk82gsk82 Posts: 2,419
    i don't think sky will give cavendish much support other than eisel. they aren't stupid and if wiggins has a chance at yellow i reckon cavendish will sacrifice his own chances to an extent.

    top 2 i reckon.
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  • Ringo 68Ringo 68 Posts: 441
    iainf72 wrote:
    He's in very good form and the Tour route suits him. However, everyone now knows what kind of form he's in now and I think that will count against him somewhat. His team could also end up stretched with Cavendish, especially if they lost a couple of riders through crashes.

    I'm not sure how much him being a favourite will count against him.

    He's not really one to launch the kind of attack where that counts!

    This ^^^

    I have seen great riders launch attacks on the Tour which has put them in positions to win but I have never seen Wiggins launch any sort of attack anywhere.

    His one chance to win, imho, is to generate time in the TT's and hold onto the shirt tails of those trying to catch him in the mountains with help from his team.
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  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 46,579 Lives Here
    gsk82 wrote:
    i don't think sky will give cavendish much support other than eisel. they aren't stupid and if wiggins has a chance at yellow i reckon cavendish will sacrifice his own chances to an extent.
    .


    I know Cavendish has made rumbles about dropping out of the Tour early to go for gold at the olympics, but judging by Boonen's comments about the route, I'd suggest that'd be a mistake for him.
  • cogidubnuscogidubnus Posts: 860
    Winner, he climbs as well as Evans and is a better TT'er
  • afx237viafx237vi Posts: 12,630
    I voted yes. Inkyfingers basically sums up my thoughts in the main Romandie thread, but since the Dauphiné last year he seems to have become the real deal in terms of all-round ability.

    People say he might be vulnerable in the mountains, but any rider who can hold their own in a Vuelta with the Angliru in the route seems to doing OK to me.
  • phreakphreak Posts: 2,030
    Just looking at his rivals:

    Schleck can undoubtably take time in the mountains but Wiggins will surely be able to cover his losses enough to regain those in the time trials.

    Evans is not as good as Wiggins in the time trial and I don't think can ride away from him in the mountains.

    Not sure who else there is. Frank falls into the same boat as Andy really.

    I'd say that Sky have as good a team as anyone, and with guys like Porte, Froome and Rogers he'll have decent support in the mountains.

    I don't think Cavendish will have much support this time round. It's in Wiggins interest to stay near the front on the flat stages but I don't think there will be a big train for Cavendish. He'll probably have Eisel to nurse him through the mountains so he has a shot at the Champs Elysee but other than that I think Sky would be mad to jeopardise such a good shot at the Yellow for the Green. Stage wins for Cav, Yellow for Wiggins.

    Of course saying all of that he'll need a bit of luck as he could easily crash out or something. If he makes it to Paris though you have to fancy him.
  • iainf72iainf72 Posts: 15,774
    cogidubnus wrote:
    Winner, he climbs as well as Evans and is a better TT'er

    Is he the better TT'er in the 3'rd week of a race when contending for the GC.

    I say no.
    Fckin' Quintana … that creep can roll, man.
  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 22,891
    As far as Sky's team goes for supporting Cavendish, while there's going to be little in the way of dedicated support it's likely that all the riders except Froome and Porte will be ex-HTC Columbia riders and therefore able to put an effective lead-out together in the last 5-10km without to much drain on the riders.
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  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 46,579 Lives Here
    iainf72 wrote:
    cogidubnus wrote:
    Winner, he climbs as well as Evans and is a better TT'er

    Is he the better TT'er in the 3'rd week of a race when contending for the GC.

    Indeed, though we don't have much to go on re evidence.

    Basically the Annecy TT in '09.
  • NapoleonDNapoleonD Posts: 18,632
    Speculate all you want fellas, one thing is for sure I'm going to put my feet up and enjoy it whatever happens :)
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  • phreakphreak Posts: 2,030
    iainf72 wrote:
    cogidubnus wrote:
    Winner, he climbs as well as Evans and is a better TT'er

    Is he the better TT'er in the 3'rd week of a race when contending for the GC.

    I say no.

    When they've raced against each other in 2009 Wiggins beat Evans by 20 seconds. I know Evans wasn't on form then but it's fair to say Wiggins is a much better rider now too so don't see how you can say he's going to tank the final TT.
  • tailwindhometailwindhome Posts: 14,412
    There's every chance he'll be in Yellow after the first TT.

    That's a long time to defend it .
    Believe that a farther shore
    Is reachable from here.
    Believe in miracles
    And cures and healing wells
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