Ronde van Vlaanderen

rick_chasey

It's the race everyone's been talking about since Milan San Remo finished - and some since Het Volk.

Every movement in the warmup races has been analysed, as will the movements mid-week in the driedaagse.

So - thoughts, predictions?

Going into this one there isn't the same buzz as last year - Canc is clearly head and shoulders above the rest - even Boonen who usually refuses to let anyone consider anyone a bigger favourite than him - he settles for joint favourite - sees Canc as the super favourite.

Even Gilbert is hoping Pozzato will stick to Canc's wheel like glue to neutralise him. It seems there are only 2 riders who don't fear him - Gilbert and Boonen, and I'd suggest the latter is in denial...

Cervelo's hype hasn't lived up to much has it? Best ride from them in the classics was from Vanmarke on Saturday.

pitchshifter

Rick Chasey wrote:

Cervelo's hype hasn't lived up to much has it? Best ride from them in the classics was from Vanmarke on Saturday.

Too many cooks in the kitchen with no one wanting to do the dishes..

Tom Butcher

Canc is going to be a marked man - he's the favourite but I'd have it as odds against his winning. If Canc doesn't win I think Boonen has as much chance as anyone else.

Fwiw I think Cancellera has more chance of breaking away at Roubaix.

Pross

Marking Cancellara is one thing, staying with him when he goes is something else. Will anyone not choose him for PTP?

le_patron

Agree, sounds good but not sure what 'marking' Cancellara involves in reality. Staring at his back wheel as it gets smaller and smaller I suspect.

More a question of timing for me, before, on or after the Muur.

greasedscotsman

Wasn't he marked out of the race in 2007? Seem to remember a big line of riders on his wheel everytime he went to the front during that race. Maybe he's stronger now? And I think he caught alot of riders off guard by attacking so early in the race last year.

Flanders is a much more tactical race than Roubaix, could see a winning break going at any point from the Oude Kwaremont. Should be good, looking forward to it!

rick_chasey

I also heard the weather will turn mid week - so it may not be a dry (or at least sunny) Ronde...

csp

Devolder was a marked man in 2009, yet he could win in the exact same fashion as he had done in the previous year.

blim

More a question of timing for me, before, on or after the Muur.

Totally agree. It's going to be very tactical. Can't wait!

rick_chasey

csp wrote:

Devolder was a marked man in 2009, yet he could win in the exact same fashion as he had done in the previous year.

Was he a marked man?

I thought the consensus both times was that he profited from everyone watching Boonen.

greasedscotsman

Rick Chasey wrote:

csp wrote:

Devolder was a marked man in 2009, yet he could win in the exact same fashion as he had done in the previous year.

Was he a marked man?

I thought the consensus both times was that he profited from everyone watching Boonen.

Yes, Boonen was the marked man that year, he called Pozatto his "shadow".

afx237vi

blim wrote:

More a question of timing for me, before, on or after the Muur.

Totally agree. It's going to be very tactical. Can't wait!

Hmm, tactical races can be pretty dull, though. Tactical often equals negative, with teams doing their best to ensure others don't win, instead of going out and taking the win for themselves. It's already been mentioned, but Devolder's victories weren't exactly classic editions of the Ronde.

Art Vandelay

Pross wrote:

Marking Cancellara is one thing, staying with him when he goes is something else. Will anyone not choose him for PTP?

100 odd players - I predict 60 for Fab, 15 Gilberts, 8 Boonens and a handful for Hushovd, Haussler, Flecha, the Shadow etc. 1 sympathy vote for Hincapie.

csp

Rick Chasey wrote:

csp wrote:

Devolder was a marked man in 2009, yet he could win in the exact same fashion as he had done in the previous year.

Was he a marked man?

I thought the consensus both times was that he profited from everyone watching Boonen.

I'm not saying he was the marked man, but I believe he had been the second highest ranked rider on any betting site. It could surely have been anticipated that he was going to make his move, after the trio of him, Boonen and Pozzato broke away from the bunch.

Tom Butcher

Yes but I don't think anyone is going to let Cancellera ride off because they are marking Frank Schleck (or whoever Leopard are starting with) - which is pretty much how Devolder won.

rick_chasey

Tom Butcher wrote:

Yes but I don't think anyone is going to let Cancellera ride off because they are marking Frank Schleck (or whoever Leopard are starting with) - which is pretty much how Devolder won.

Indeed - but who can stay with Cancellara if he puts the hammer down?

ozzzyosborn206

i think other riders will have to be careful marking canc too much, O Grady is probably capable of pulling off a win, if he goes up the road there will come a time they have to chase him down and when that happens it will give fab a chance to get the jump on them or just sit in and see if they catch Stuey

rick_chasey

ozzzyosborn206 wrote:

i think other riders will have to be careful marking canc too much, O Grady is probably capable of pulling off a win, if he goes up the road there will come a time they have to chase him down and when that happens it will give fab a chance to get the jump on them or just sit in and see if they catch Stuey

Stuey's 38. He maybe a smart rider but he won't have it over 260km of Flander's finest.

greasedscotsman

Rick Chasey wrote:

Tom Butcher wrote:

Yes but I don't think anyone is going to let Cancellera ride off because they are marking Frank Schleck (or whoever Leopard are starting with) - which is pretty much how Devolder won.

Indeed - but who can stay with Cancellara if he puts the hammer down?

Not sure many can, but does it then depend on riders working together? Think that was the "problem" at Roubaix last year. Or maybe it comes down to a strong team. In the past you could see Quick Step being the strongest, not sure that's the case now. Garmin don't seem to be the classic team they might be on paper, so then who has the strongest team?

inkyfingers

Funnily enough I can see Sky being the team most likely to keep Cancellara in check at Paris-Roubaix. Wiggins, Thomas, Stannard and Hayman could all help and be sacrificed in aid of Flecha. The problem for them is going to be finishing it off as Flecha needs to get away solo to have any chance of winning and it doesn't look like EBH is going to fit enough to make it that far into the race.

When Cancellara goes they either all need to work together or you need a big team (Quick Step/Garmin/Sky) to have 4 or more riders in the front group to form a serious chase. Even then he still has a fair chance of getting away. Hopefully it will make for good racing rather than just sitting there watching Spartacus TT for 40km which, while impressive is not what we want to see in a one day classic.

Tom Butcher

Rick Chasey wrote:

Tom Butcher wrote:

Yes but I don't think anyone is going to let Cancellera ride off because they are marking Frank Schleck (or whoever Leopard are starting with) - which is pretty much how Devolder won.

Indeed - but who can stay with Cancellara if he puts the hammer down?

I might be out of step with the majority but I don't see Cancellara being able to ride the likes of Boonen, Gilbert, Pozzato etc off his wheel on a flat road - maybe on the cobbles of Paris Roubaix but not in Flanders. On a climb - maybe he'll be able to drop a few of them - not others. Yes he's a strong favourite but like in all bike races nobody is strong enough just to ride away regardless.

smithy21

5/4 on Bet 365. Seems ridiculous in a bike race of this magnitude.

Impressive last weekend but I still think the depth of strength in the field was thin.

Not saying he wont win but better value elsewhere I think on this one.

inkyfingers

Tom Butcher wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Tom Butcher wrote:

Yes but I don't think anyone is going to let Cancellera ride off because they are marking Frank Schleck (or whoever Leopard are starting with) - which is pretty much how Devolder won.

Indeed - but who can stay with Cancellara if he puts the hammer down?

I might be out of step with the majority but I don't see Cancellara being able to ride the likes of Boonen, Gilbert, Pozzato etc off his wheel on a flat road - maybe on the cobbles of Paris Roubaix but not in Flanders. On a climb - maybe he'll be able to drop a few of them - not others. Yes he's a strong favourite but like in all bike races nobody is strong enough just to ride away regardless.

I'm sorry but that's just what he did last year and just what he did on wednesday!

Tom Butcher

Last year in Flanders - on a flat road ? He attacked them on the climbs.

He did it last week admittedly - perhaps if Tankink hadn't cramped up at that moment he'd have got his wheel - but it's a bit different doing it in Flanders isn't it. I think he's made a mistake showing his hand last week - if people were wondering if he was in the same form this year he's left them in no doubt.

moray_gub

Tom Butcher wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Tom Butcher wrote:

Yes but I don't think anyone is going to let Cancellera ride off because they are marking Frank Schleck (or whoever Leopard are starting with) - which is pretty much how Devolder won.

Indeed - but who can stay with Cancellara if he puts the hammer down?

I might be out of step with the majority but I don't see Cancellara being able to ride the likes of Boonen, Gilbert, Pozzato etc off his wheel on a flat road - maybe on the cobbles of Paris Roubaix but not in Flanders. On a climb - maybe he'll be able to drop a few of them - not others. Yes he's a strong favourite but like in all bike races nobody is strong enough just to ride away regardless.

He is strong enough to do that on both flat and cobbled climb as he proved last year on two succesive Sundays

LangerDan

So it begs the question - if you were the DS of any team (except Leopard), how do you deal with Chinny?
The only options seem to be i) a long distance break (preferably with a Leopard rider in it so they won't chase) that makes it to the finish, ii) a big bunch sprint. iii) spend the day attacking Cancellara to hopefully tire him out or iv) hire some large drunken gentleman to knock Spartacus ass-backwards into the hedge at the foot of the Koppenberg. Of these, I think iv) is the only one with with some chance of success.

rick_chasey

LangerDan wrote:

So it begs the question - if you were the DS of any team (except Leopard), how do you deal with Chinny?
The only options seem to be i) a long distance break (preferably with a Leopard rider in it so they won't chase) that makes it to the finish, ii) a big bunch sprint. iii) spend the day attacking Cancellara to hopefully tire him out or iv) hire some large drunken gentleman to knock Spartacus ass-backwards into the hedge at the foot of the Koppenberg. Of these, I think iv) is the only one with with some chance of success.

I think if you have a strong team - or at least more than one big rider - you have to chance it and throw a big rider into the mix with around 60-40km to go. Maybe Ballan for BMC or Van Avermaert with Chavanel and a Hincape style guy. Just put a lot of responsibility and pressure on the leopard team, which, beyond Canc and O'Grady, who's smart rather than strong nowadays - the leopard team is a little weak.

greasedscotsman

Moray Gub wrote:

He is strong enough to do that on both flat and cobbled climb as he proved last year on two succesive Sundays

Don't think it's that simple. If you take last year's Roubaix, when he attacked everyone else just looked at Boonen. Next thing he has a reasonable gap and then nobody wants to chase.

LangerDan wrote:

So it begs the question - if you were the DS of any team (except Leopard), how do you deal with Chinny?

Maybe do some deals with other teams? Actually, depending which team I'm DS for, I'm not sure I would change too much. Better to ride to your team's own strengths rather than focus just on one rival.

And are team radios being used/allowed for this race?

rick_chasey

Radio are allowed. It's only in non-world tour events.

Anyone know what place in the car queue Leopard and QS are?

I know at Gent it was HTC first, Rabo 2nd, Leo near the front QS last....

RichN95.

Rick Chasey wrote:

Radio are allowed. It's only in non-world tour events.

Anyone know what place in the car queue Leopard and QS are?

I know at Gent it was HTC first, Rabo 2nd, Leo near the front QS last....

It's done on the latest rankings isn't it? If it is, then:

1 HTC-Highroad 371 pts
2 Lampre - ISD 249
3 Team Garmin-Cervelo 247
4 Team Radioshack 231
5 Sky Procycling 228
6 Rabobank Cycling Team 226
7 Bmc Racing Team 198
8 Liquigas-Cannondale 168
9 Omega Pharma-Lotto 168
10 Leopard Trek 158
11 Saxo Bank Sungard 119
12 Movistar Team 109
13 Ag2R La Mondiale 101
14 Quickstep Cycling Team 90
15 Euskaltel-Euskadi 61
16 Katusha Team 56
17 Vacansoleil-Dcm Pro Cycling Team 20
18 Pro Team Astana 17

rick_chasey

It is.

14th is still a long way back...