Pro Tour Pundit 2011

inkyfingers

Rick Chasey wrote:

AFX - do you keep all the PTP spreadsheets on record?

For restrospective testing?

rick_chasey

inkyfingers wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

AFX - do you keep all the PTP spreadsheets on record?

For restrospective testing?

Ah I have a little project in mind.

inkyfingers

Rick Chasey wrote:

inkyfingers wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

AFX - do you keep all the PTP spreadsheets on record?

For restrospective testing?

Ah I have a little project in mind.

I'd like to say for the record that I only ever thought about cheating.

afx237vi

Rick Chasey wrote:

AFX - do you keep all the PTP spreadsheets on record?

Yes, from 2008 onwards. What's on your mind?

rick_chasey

afx237vi wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

AFX - do you keep all the PTP spreadsheets on record?

Yes, from 2008 onwards. What's on your mind?

I'm temted to see how accurate PTPers are at predicting the future ( in this case, the result of pro-bike races), and draw some statistical conclusions.


Given that it's all on excel, I figured it'd be quite straightforward.

How often do groups of people who spuriously predict stuff have all their predictions versus results neatly aligned in a spreadsheet?

afx237vi

If you PM me your email, I can send you a .rar with all the spreadsheets in.

The only problem I see is that it isn't a collection of who picked what riders, only what they scored (although that'd still work if you're only interested in the percentage of winners etc).

Tusher

Although, would their actual, named, picks not be buried deep in the forum on the PTP threads? It would take an age to plod through that.

afx237vi

Tusher wrote:

Although, would their actual, named, picks not be buried deep in the forum on the PTP threads? It would take an age to plod through that.

I can't even begin to imagine how long that would take :shock:

andyp

It'd be easier just to look at the race results surely?

afx237vi

andyp wrote:

It'd be easier just to look at the race results surely?

Yeah the points system hasn't changed, so it's fairly easy to look at the scores and figure out who picked what rider.

rick_chasey

I'm only interested (at the moment) in when a winner is picked (and perhaps top 3 if I can be bothered), so it's pretty straightforward.

Not interested in which rider was picked, only how accurate the 'winning' prediction is.

rick_chasey

So, for example, the 2011 Amstel Gold Race, of the 97 pickers, 51% odd picked the winner.

That's a pretty good hit rate.

You can draw loads of comparisons,

stage picks versus classic picks, MTF pics versus Sprint picks,

top 10 overall pickers that year versus 10-20 place.

etc etc.

inkyfingers

You've got too much time on your hands....

rick_chasey

inkyfingers wrote:

You've got too much time on your hands....

I need something to keep me occupied when the cycling season finishes.

afx237vi

rozzer32 still leads, but Snorebens had a good Worlds and has now moved into 2nd overall. Just 6 points in it with two races to go :shock:

Overall scores after the World Championships

Name                 Score
------------------------------
1   rozzer32              1524
2   Snorebens             1518
3   Richrd2205            1497
4   jp1985                1463
5   Art Vandelay          1424
6   ShockedSoShocked      1407
7   StrawberryFields      1401
8   andyp                 1384
9   TheBigBean            1382
10  camerone              1355
11  inkyfingers           1343
12  archieboy             1341
13  Kléber                1319
14  Tom BB                1319
15  ratsbeyfus            1316
16  stanislav             1302
17  FJS                   1290
18  stfc1                 1281
19  alanjay               1269
20  slimreaper            1256

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub ... utput=html

cal_stewart

right afx I'm off to afghan for 6 months

can you smash me down for

cav p-t
and
pip for tdl

Snorebens

afx237vi wrote:

rozzer32 still leads, but Snorebens had a good Worlds and has now moved into 2nd overall. Just 6 points in it with two races to go :shock:

Wow - that is close !

Can we send you PM picks for the last two races Afx?

I also noted this from the thread above which might put a spanner in the works:
"Over the next few weeks, the BikeRadar forums are going to be upgraded from phpBB 2 (with various hacks) to phpBB 3. We want to have this done by mid-October and due to the massive amount of data that we have to migrate, the forums could be offline for up to a week. A further update will be posted nearer the time."
Will have to see what happens i guess.

afx237vi

Yeah, selections by PM are fine. That's what's happened in past years too. If the forum goes offline, email is OK too - my username at gmail dot com.

ms_tree

Do you mean dot . or actually dot afx? Sorry confused.

LeicesterLad

he means dot .

afx237vi

PTP 2011 goes down to the final race of the season with rozzer32, Snorebens and Richrd2205 all still in with a chance of winning. 27 points separate the top 3... 50 points on the line in Lombardy. Game on!

Overall scores after Paris-Tours

Name                 Score
------------------------------
1   rozzer32              1524
2   Snorebens             1518
3   Richrd2205            1497
4   jp1985                1463
5   Art Vandelay          1424
6   ShockedSoShocked      1407
7   StrawberryFields      1401
8   andyp                 1384
9   TheBigBean            1382
10  camerone              1355
11  inkyfingers           1343
12  archieboy             1341
13  Kléber                1319
14  Tom BB                1319
15  ratsbeyfus            1316
16  stanislav             1302
17  FJS                   1290
18  stfc1                 1281
19  alanjay               1269
20  slimreaper            1256

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub ... utput=html

Kléber

Close. Last year I was in with a chance of winning and we agreed to submit picks via the forum's message system. That way people can't "slipstream" others picks.

afx237vi

Well done again to rozzer32, PTP champion for 2011. Not much change after Lombardia, with a 6 point gap back to his nearest rival, Snorebens. 2008 champion Richrd2205 rounds out the final podium with a solid 3rd place.

Well done to everyone who lasted the whole season. See you again in February for Het Volk!

PTP 2011 - Final Classification

Name                Score
-----------------------------
1   rozzer32             1534
2   Snorebens            1528
3   Richrd2205           1507
4   jp1985               1473
5   Art Vandelay         1434
6   ShockedSoShocked     1417
7   StrawberryFields     1401
8   andyp                1394
9   TheBigBean           1392
10  camerone             1365
11  inkyfingers          1343
12  archieboy            1341
13  Kléber               1329
14  Tom BB               1329
15  stanislav            1317
16  ratsbeyfus           1316
17  FJS                  1315
18  stfc1                1291
19  alanjay              1269
20  Moomaloid            1259

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub ... utput=html

shockedsoshocked

Cheers AFX, once again really enjoyed this years edition! Won't be long till Omloop Het Nieuwsblad is rolling round again!

Out of interest, would you be able to look at where I've fininished in the last few years editions? Very happy with 6th, think I just missed out on top ten last year?

FJS

Congratulations Rozzer! Enjoy your lucrative post-PTP criteriums

Also well done Snorebens after being up there last year already, and Richard2205 for leading for so long

rozzer32

Just want to say a big thanks to Afx again! Does a really good job and PTP would be nothing without Afx.

afx237vi

ShockedSoShocked wrote:

Cheers AFX, once again really enjoyed this years edition! Won't be long till Omloop Het Nieuwsblad is rolling round again!

Out of interest, would you be able to look at where I've fininished in the last few years editions? Very happy with 6th, think I just missed out on top ten last year?

11th in 2010:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub ... utput=html

24th in 2009:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub ... utput=html

DNS in 2008:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub ... utput=html

(That's as far back as I have the spreadsheets.)

And thanks for the kind words, everyone, it's much appreciated.

Tusher

Most excellent. I've climbed from 58th to 40th position in a season, due solely to my special PTP diet and rigorous training.

If only I could pick the correct winner of a GT, and remember to post my choice before the race starts, I may hope to reach the heady heights of the top 30.


afx, you sexy little monkey, you bring me so much joy. *mwah*
Roll on next year.

ms_tree

Thank you for your hard work afx. Same time next year?

Tom BB

Many thanks afx....I've really enjoyed my debut year I'm pretty chuffed with 14th overall too....see you next year!