OT Hung Parliment!

daviesee

lost_in_thought wrote:

gabriel959 wrote:

From this election is clear that there needs to be an electorate reform, its ridiculous that the Lib Dems with 23% of the vote to date and 6.5 million voters have only got 53 seats compared to 29% of the vote and 8.3 million voters for Labour lands them over 250 seats. That is flipping ridiculous.
.

Yeah, that really is.

+ 1

As the big 2 are in power and the situation suits them not to have it be the big 3, I don't see much changing :evil:

davmaggs

Its going to be an interesting time. For those who think that the current system is 'unfair' its worth reading the New Scientist (free online) as they've examined the various options and whichever way you cut it then somebody loses out mathematically. Or you end up like various countries where nutters who get minimal votes actually get top jobs as a pay-off for their support.

In terms of cuts, various respected bodies reckon that all the parties are £60-70bn short (per year) in their manifestos. They all chose to lie by ommission, and the public colluded with them. Ideology doesn't come into this time around, it will be done by whoever runs things.

DonDaddyD

WGWarburton wrote:

The LibDems & Tories are likely to struggle to resolve fundamental issues, though, particularly around PR, and cuts to public services.

Idealogically (if ideology exists in todays politics) they are a long way apart on some issues that each party holds dear.

The Tories might calculate that they could win a referendum on PR... if they can swallow that and reach some sort of compromise on public services then a coalition might be feasible (they are closer in some other areas, like binning the ID system).

I wonder if that might lead to a meltdown in the Conservative party, though. The simmering resentments over Europe (so well concealed during the campaign) would be fanned by the LibDems and might flare up spectacularly. Is there any more divisive issue for the Tories?

Cheers,
W.

Brilliant

unscarred

WGWarburton wrote:

The LibDems & Tories are likely to struggle to resolve fundamental issues, though, particularly around PR, and cuts to public services.

Check the manifestos, the Lib Dems have specified some surprisingly harsh public spending cuts, and even in the NHS which is more than Tories dared! Some good analysis and comment here.
The Tories could potentially be persuaded to support a system that removes some of the bias towards Labour, and they've already got plans for citizen sponsored referenda.

will3

DonDaddyD wrote:

To be honest proportional representation, may empower more of the unsavoury parties and show England up...

I think that's democracy though isn't it? If enough people want to elect someone, however unsavoury then that's what happens - freedom of speech and all that stuff people died defending last century. It's up to the other parties to persuade those who would elect such people of the error of their ways.

After all, you can;t win an argument with someone if you don't let them speak.

Agent57

DonDaddyD wrote:

To be honest proportional representation, may empower more of the unsavoury parties and show England up...

It may enable UKIP or the BNP to get seats, that's true enough. But while they may sit in Westminster, the chances of them having much sway on policy or lawmaking would be minimal to non-existent, I think. Even if the number of MPs were reduced to, say 600, and the BNP had 10 seats, they'd still need the support of 291 other MPs in order to win a vote (assuming a major issue which brings out all representatives).

They wouldn't have much sway in setting budget policy etc.. I'd be surprised if any coalition governments included them.

Sure, they might manage to win on some issues where hardly any MPs turn up (e.g. second reading of the Digital Economy Bill), but if MP turnout was so low, I'd expect that to be a pretty nothing piece of legislation. And even if it got passed, I'd expect it to the kicked out by the Lords.

rjsterry

DonDaddyD wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

DonDaddyD wrote:

Just trying to help. But surely if you know that then you know why Parliment is currently hung to the right but not 'right' enough to announce a Government.

What is unfair is that no matter what happened because where I live leans rigidly to one party, it doesn't matter who I vote. In fact the local Cllr elections propbably have more impact on my life.

Yet another reason to move further south DDD - oooh cross-threading or whatever it's called (What was it they said in Ghostbusters?) - I'd have to admit it was one (admittedly small) factor when we were looking at where to move to.

Outside of London, the rural areas, tend to lean towards ther right side of that wing. I suppose its where all the middle classes fled when lefties invaded the cities back in the 60s and 70s...

I'm morally a leftie who has some rightie aspirations/values....

EDIT: [oops typed my coment into DDD's post] Not that far south mate, just to the LibDem Utopia that is the Borough of Sutton

rjsterry

WGWarburton wrote:

I wonder if that might lead to a meltdown in the Conservative party, though. The simmering resentments over Europe (so well concealed during the campaign) would be fanned by the LibDems and might flare up spectacularly. Is there any more divisive issue for the Tories?

Cheers,
W.

All part of the cunning plan?

Kieran_Burns

It's a little bizarre watching Nick Clegg in full flow when your best mate is stood right behind him:

Nick Clegg

the last scene is hysterical - Dave literally stands head and shoulders above everyone else.

Eau Rouge

DonDaddyD wrote:

To be honest proportional representation, may empower more of the unsavoury parties and show England up...

Or it might kill them off. It's easy to vote BNP, they aren't actually going to get anywhere near winning, so they become a f**k you vote against the main three parties for most of their voters. Make that vote actually count though, and a lot of people will start to think again about voting for them. It's like what happens to UKIP, who get a lot more votes in the doesn't-really-matter European elections than they ever muster in an actually-counts general election.

On the other hand, PR makes it worth while voting for the candidate you actually want rather then the one most likely to beat the Tory/Labour one. In any "two horse race" constituency people from the third party will vote tactically, that would change under PR and could have a big impact on some seats.

unscarred

If anyone is as sad as me and actually likes statistics and maths and wants to know about why and how the system seems to favour Labour so much, then take a look at this:

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/index.html?analysis_index.html

Conclusion is basically that most of it is actually probably valid and if you changed to a different voting system the behaviour of voters would change too.

tailwindhome

Fireblade96 wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

In other business I'm sure you all have overlooked the happenings in the constituency of Fermanagh South Tyrone. They are currently on their 6 sixth recount. Sinn Fein lead from the independant Unionist by 2 votes! In each of the previous 5 counts the lead has changed but has never been more than 10 votes.

Anybody know what happens? Do they keep counting til someone gives in?

Yes. Remember the US Presidential Elections in 2000 ?
Alternatively, someone might realise how many times the same person has voted for Sinn Fein, assuming that the old mantra of "vote early, vote often" still applies ;-)

Sinn Fein have just won the seat with a declared majority of 4

Thats astonishing

Not from a political allegiance POV, it's just the maths which astounds me. How will the second place candidate sleep tonight?? Did all his friends and family remember to vote???

Eau Rouge

TailWindHome wrote:

Fireblade96 wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

In other business I'm sure you all have overlooked the happenings in the constituency of Fermanagh South Tyrone. They are currently on their 6 sixth recount. Sinn Fein lead from the independant Unionist by 2 votes! In each of the previous 5 counts the lead has changed but has never been more than 10 votes.

Anybody know what happens? Do they keep counting til someone gives in?

Yes. Remember the US Presidential Elections in 2000 ?
Alternatively, someone might realise how many times the same person has voted for Sinn Fein, assuming that the old mantra of "vote early, vote often" still applies ;-)

Sinn Fein have just won the seat with a declared majority of 4

Thats astonishing

Not from a political allegiance POV, it's just the maths which astounds me. How will the second place candidate sleep tonight?? Did all his friends and family remember to vote???

If there are any questions about spoilt votes or any other irregularities it may well be challenged in the courts and result in a by-election. That happened in my new constituency in 1997 when the incumbent was beaten by just 2 votes, only to lose the by-election by a sizable margin.

CiB

Did anyone else stay up through the night for the whole lot, and is now busy trying not to fall asleep before facing a 20 mile trek home into a headwind? No? Ho hum...

TommyEss

Went to bed at about 01:30 - stupidly thought it was looking quite positive for the Tories, what with 8, 9 and 10% swings in Labour heartland seat, so perhaps a little miffed (but not greatly surprised) to see a hung parliament this morning.

Like you say - ho hum!

rjsterry

CiB wrote:

Did anyone else stay up through the night for the whole lot, and is now busy trying not to fall asleep before facing a 20 mile trek home into a headwind? No? Ho hum...

I've never seen the point of staying up late to see the first few results come in (with massive amounts of pseudo-analysis/filler to pad it out until they get a better idea of how things are going). Surely it's just easier to wait till the morning, and get the full picture in one go. Try not to fall asleep at the... err... bars.

will3

CiB wrote:

Did anyone else stay up through the night for the whole lot, and is now busy trying not to fall asleep before facing a 20 mile trek home into a headwind? No? Ho hum...

:oops:

DonDaddyD

CiB wrote:

Did anyone else stay up through the night for the whole lot, and is now busy trying not to fall asleep before facing a 20 mile trek home into a headwind? No? Ho hum...

So that is what that throbbing pain on the left side of my brain is. I need sleep!

Darn, I thought I needed food and alcohol....

Ho hum...

always_tyred

DonDaddyD wrote:

gabriel959 wrote:

From this election is clear that there needs to be an electorate reform, its ridiculous that the Lib Dems with 23% of the vote to date and 6.5 million voters have only got 53 seats compared to 29% of the vote and 8.3 million voters for Labour lands them over 250 seats. That is flipping ridiculous.
.

Proportional representation!

Now that's something I'll march for not some bleeding critical mass (see what I did there *cough* andy manc *cough*).

Whose with me? Where are my Lib Dem supporters? Voting labour where the vote counts.

To be honest proportional representation, may empower more of the unsavoury parties and show England up...

Would you be okay with 12 BNP members of parliament? That's the flip side.

Personally I would - they are such morons that there would be fewer than 12 the next time around.

CiB

rjsterry wrote:

CiB wrote:

Did anyone else stay up through the night for the whole lot, and is now busy trying not to fall asleep before facing a 20 mile trek home into a headwind? No? Ho hum...

I've never seen the point of staying up late to see the first few results come in (with massive amounts of pseudo-analysis/filler to pad it out until they get a better idea of how things are going). Surely it's just easier to wait till the morning, and get the full picture in one go. Try not to fall asleep at the... err... bars.

Fine - don't stay up then; if you just want the shrink-wrapped 'here's what happened' precis to wake up to. I find it captivating, not endless pseudo-filler or whatever. And there's never a point where it's convenient to give up. The results just keep coming, just like the drivel from Mandy's pug-ugly face desparately trying to justify what's happened & what will happen, and why this is not like previous elections with his lot on the end of a stuffing this time. Shame there was no Portillo Moment for Labour though - was really hoping for one.

unscarred

Always Tyred wrote:

Would you be okay with 12 BNP members of parliament? That's the flip side.

I assume you're basing that on the 1.9% share of the popular vote they got?
Chances are they wouldn't get that under PR. There's good evidence that a lot of people don't bother voting in seats where their favoured party is "safe" because they know they don't need to.
If they weren't safe more supporters of the mainstream parties would make the effort to vote, so the BNP's 1.9% would probably shrink a lot.

zanes

Always Tyred wrote:

Personally I would - they are such morons that there would be fewer than 12 the next time around.

+1

rjsterry

Always Tyred wrote:

DonDaddyD wrote:

gabriel959 wrote:

From this election is clear that there needs to be an electorate reform, its ridiculous that the Lib Dems with 23% of the vote to date and 6.5 million voters have only got 53 seats compared to 29% of the vote and 8.3 million voters for Labour lands them over 250 seats. That is flipping ridiculous.
.

Proportional representation!

Now that's something I'll march for not some bleeding critical mass (see what I did there *cough* andy manc *cough*).

Whose with me? Where are my Lib Dem supporters? Voting labour where the vote counts.

To be honest proportional representation, may empower more of the unsavoury parties and show England up...

Would you be okay with 12 BNP members of parliament? That's the flip side.

Personally I would - they are such morons that there would be fewer than 12 the next time around.

Exactly. From what I've heard, the few BNP local councillors are pretty farcical (when they're not picking fights). Saw one being interviewed on the local news the other day, and he could barely string a sentence together. Might also make the other parties up their game a bit, which is no bad thing.

greg66_tri_v2.0

gabriel959 wrote:

From this election is clear that there needs to be an electorate reform, its ridiculous that the Lib Dems with 23% of the vote to date and 6.5 million voters have only got 53 seats compared to 29% of the vote and 8.3 million voters for Labour lands them over 250 seats. That is flipping ridiculous.
.

Or...

Only the Lib Dems stood for PR, and they took 23% of the vote. So there isn't a majority in favour.

And no, I don't believe for one second Con or Lab are interested in electoral reform.

Agent57

Always Tyred wrote:

Would you be okay with 12 BNP members of parliament? That's the flip side.

Personally I would - they are such morons that there would be fewer than 12 the next time around.

I gave a previous response on this topic higher up this page, but the point you make here is also relevant. Aside from the fact that 12 MPs can't really do much without broad support, they likelihood is that they'll be so ineffective and laughable that they'd be shown up even more as a truly wasted vote, and they'd find it a lot harder to hide their horrible politics over the course of 4 or 5 years of attention (as opposed to a few weeks here and there).

Also, if there were PR, I wouldn't be surprised if support for a party like the BNP decreased. I think there'd be less "protest" voting, since it would be much easier to make a vote for a party count. Plus, with something like STV, it's most likely that BNP candidates would be amongst the first to fail to make the grade, and to have their votes redistributed to other candidates. That depends on the type of PR that's put in place, of course.

rjsterry

CiB wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

CiB wrote:

Did anyone else stay up through the night for the whole lot, and is now busy trying not to fall asleep before facing a 20 mile trek home into a headwind? No? Ho hum...

I've never seen the point of staying up late to see the first few results come in (with massive amounts of pseudo-analysis/filler to pad it out until they get a better idea of how things are going). Surely it's just easier to wait till the morning, and get the full picture in one go. Try not to fall asleep at the... err... bars.

Fine - don't stay up then; if you just want the shrink-wrapped 'here's what happened' precis to wake up to. I find it captivating, not endless pseudo-filler or whatever. And there's never a point where it's convenient to give up. The results just keep coming, just like the drivel from Mandy's pug-ugly face desparately trying to justify what's happened & what will happen, and why this is not like previous elections with his lot on the end of a stuffing this time. Shame there was no Portillo Moment for Labour though - was really hoping for one.

Sorry, that came across as unnecessarily snipey. I just haven't got the stamina for it, and would only end up shouting at the TV, which is not a good thing for anyone. Have to say though, that I don't think I could stand a night of the tortured paving-stone-to-number-ten metaphor. Agree with you on Mandy.

Eau Rouge

Greg66 wrote:

gabriel959 wrote:

From this election is clear that there needs to be an electorate reform, its ridiculous that the Lib Dems with 23% of the vote to date and 6.5 million voters have only got 53 seats compared to 29% of the vote and 8.3 million voters for Labour lands them over 250 seats. That is flipping ridiculous.
.

Or...

Only the Lib Dems stood for PR, and they took 23% of the vote. So there isn't a majority in favour.

And no, I don't believe for one second Con or Lab are interested in electoral reform.

The election wasn't fought solely on PR. It all depends on public opinion, how the public view the skewing of the results when translated from votes to seats. Any proposed change is likely to need a referendum anyway, where the public can really have their say.

DonDaddyD

wht is PR, public relations?

tailwindhome

CiB wrote:

The results just keep coming, just like the drivel from Mandy's pug-ugly face desparately trying to justify what's happened & what will happen, and why this is not like previous elections with his lot on the end of a stuffing this time. Shame there was no Portillo Moment for Labour though - was really hoping for one.

I can't be 100% sure but I'm beginning to think you're not a labour supporter

tailwindhome

DonDaddyD wrote:

wht is PR, public relations?

Seriously?