Labour's last gasp?...

Cressers
Cressers Posts: 1,329
edited January 2016 in The bottom bracket
It seems to me that they're all but throwing in the towel and hoping for a hung parliament...

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/break ... 91606.html

If a third-placed party ended up forming the lead element of a coalition, that would expose our political system for the farce that it is.
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Comments

  • finchy
    finchy Posts: 6,686
    Cressers wrote:
    It seems to me that they're all but throwing in the towel and hoping for a hung parliament...

    http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/break ... 91606.html

    If a third-placed party ended up forming the lead element of a coalition, that would expose our political system for the farce that it is.

    Whoever ends up in power, they are likely to get less than 40% of the vote. So really, Conservative or Lab-LibD we're going to see a farce.
  • Cressers
    Cressers Posts: 1,329
    That'a s given, but Brown staying in Number 10 with or without help while being third in the popular vote ought to be the start of a civil war...

    ...but of course we don't do that sort of thing in the UK now...

    And Cameron has had to cancel his trip to Ni due to the new ash alert, his allies in the Tory/UUP pact are expected not to win any seats there. So in addtion to any West Lothian question we may have an Ulster question to contend with on friday...
  • beverick
    beverick Posts: 3,461
    Unless there's a sudden, late and unexpected swing towards either Labour or the Conservatives it'll be the Liberals who hold the balance of power on Friday morning. It just depends who they decide to ally themselves with - GB or DC.

    Bob
  • Cressers
    Cressers Posts: 1,329
    National opinion poll percentages arn't reflected in the marginal seats that the parties must win to form a govt. There, just tens of votes, or a handfull, can make all the difference...
  • Crapaud
    Crapaud Posts: 2,483
    Cressers wrote:
    ... And Cameron has had to cancel his trip to Ni due to the new ash alert, his allies in the Tory/UUP pact are expected not to win any seats there. So in addtion to any West Lothian question we may have an Ulster question to contend with on friday...
    I heard on the radio this morning that Scotland's only Tory's jacket is on a shakey peg. We could also be a Tory free zone.

    I wonder how that would work: a Tory Government in Westminster, no Torys in N. Ireland and Scotland. Hardly a mandate to govern.

    How are things looking for the Torys in Wales?
    A fanatic is one who can’t change his mind and won’t change the subject - Churchill
  • guilliano
    guilliano Posts: 5,495
    If There are no Tory seats in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland but an elected Tory government will we hear cries for full independence from those countries or are they too reliant on central government for money?
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/guilliano/
  • eh
    eh Posts: 4,854
    Hate to tell you but Scotland isn't of much interest to England really, its already got its own parliment, law & education systems, NHS control, football etc.
  • Smokin Joe
    Smokin Joe Posts: 2,706
    eh wrote:
    Hate to tell you but Scotland isn't of much interest to England really, its already got its own parliment, law & education systems, NHS control, football etc.
    But no money of it's own to pay for it.
  • bill_gates
    bill_gates Posts: 469
    Smokin Joe wrote:
    eh wrote:
    Hate to tell you but Scotland isn't of much interest to England really, its already got its own parliment, law & education systems, NHS control, football etc.
    But no money of it's own to pay for it.

    But Scotland could make a big wad of money from selling it's own oil that it has in its own waters.

    "I like riding in my car, it's not quite a Jaguar."
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    Bill Gates wrote:
    Smokin Joe wrote:
    eh wrote:
    Hate to tell you but Scotland isn't of much interest to England really, its already got its own parliment, law & education systems, NHS control, football etc.
    But no money of it's own to pay for it.

    But Scotland could make a big wad of money from selling it's own oil that it has in its own waters.

    But isn't it the case that a large part of that oil field is in English waters when you continue the border along its trajectory rather than just assume that everything north of Berwick is Scottish?

    Just saying like!

    Edited to add. Are the oil fields being nationalised? If not, it's irrelevant anyway. Apart from some tax revenue, the big bucks won't touch you or I.
  • SteveR_100Milers
    SteveR_100Milers Posts: 5,987
    Cressers wrote:
    That'a s given, but Brown staying in Number 10 with or without help while being third in the popular vote ought to be the start of a civil war...

    ...but of course we don't do that sort of thing in the UK now...

    And Cameron has had to cancel his trip to Ni due to the new ash alert, his allies in the Tory/UUP pact are expected not to win any seats there. So in addtion to any West Lothian question we may have an Ulster question to contend with on friday...

    I take it you are a active member, certainly wannabee member of the BNP? Do you really think that a Tory party under 'get down with the kids' Dave is going to e significantly different from NL? You should go and check the definitions of parliament and president
    http://www.pontypoolrcc.co.uk/
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  • ynyswen24
    ynyswen24 Posts: 703
    Bill Gates wrote:
    Smokin Joe wrote:
    eh wrote:
    Hate to tell you but Scotland isn't of much interest to England really, its already got its own parliment, law & education systems, NHS control, football etc.
    But no money of it's own to pay for it.

    But Scotland could make a big wad of money from selling it's own oil that it has in its own waters.

    The oil's pretty much used up in the North Sea, that's why the UK government (and whichever party forms the next one ) are so keen on the territorial waters of the Falkland Islands.
  • Mettan
    Mettan Posts: 2,103
    edited May 2010
    Cressers wrote:
    It seems to me that they're all but throwing in the towel and hoping for a hung parliament...

    http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/break ... 91606.html

    If a third-placed party ended up forming the lead element of a coalition, that would expose our political system for the farce that it is.

    If Cameron gets the most seats, he might form a Minority government regardless..... (of what anyone says or does) - if LibLab later decided to go for a vote of no confidence (at a later point), the British Press would utterly slaughter both Labour and the Lib-dems in the run-up to a 2nd General election of 2010 - Cameron would then get a Majority. Nobody in the Markets or Big-Business has the appetite for another General Election this year - they'd just bankroll an even bigger Tory effort next time around....
  • Vino2007
    Vino2007 Posts: 340
    A significant number of skilled labour in England (The big cities) comes from Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, so its really naive to think "You Englishmen" are keeping the other countries out of the third world.
  • Le Commentateur
    Le Commentateur Posts: 4,099
    Even if Cameron wins outright, his majority is likely to be so small that it will be difficult to get any bills through Parliament without the unanimous support of his MPs — that gives the extremists lurking amongst his ranks of MPs a certain degree of bargaining power that they wouldn't get if Cameron had a Tony Blair 1997 type of landslide victory.
    Un uomo solo al commando
  • shouldbeinbed
    shouldbeinbed Posts: 2,660
    Vino2007 wrote:
    A significant number of skilled labour in England (The big cities) comes from Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales,.

    why is that do you think?


    Also I don't recall seeing anyone say its us Englishmen, just the revenue generated in this country (by whoever) that is needed to prop up all of these wannabe independent countries.

    it is the attitude of 'piss off and leave us to govern ourselves, but keep signing the cheques you mugs' that rankles.

    If any of these countries elect a majority government in their own parliaments that have an independence policy then you should go for it. England should withdraw all political influence, along with seats at Westminster and all funding. I'm sure Sean Connery's triumphal return and contribution to the scottish revenue system will help. Maybe Plaid Cymru can persuade Tom Jones to come home too.
  • Mettan
    Mettan Posts: 2,103
    Wonders what the SUN newspaper will put on its front cover this morning or tomorrow:

    Brown plans to let 6 million more Immigrants in.

    :D

    That might do the trick for Cameron.
  • beverick
    beverick Posts: 3,461
    Le Commentateur wrote:
    Even if Cameron wins outright......

    Lets face it, that's not likely to happen is it.

    Bob
  • OffTheBackAdam
    OffTheBackAdam Posts: 1,869
    The number of Scottish MPs in the current cabinet, suggests we're being ruled by the Jocks anyway!
    Remember that you are an Englishman and thus have won first prize in the lottery of life.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,625
    Me thinks that the new found Lib Dem voters are soft enough that the Lib Dems will have done well to get over 28% of the popular vote.


    I'd be quite surprised if Labour come 3rd in the popular vote, especially with most of the latest polls putting Labour even with the Lib Dems on popular vote, compounded with the fact that newly found Lib Dem voters are much more soft compared to the other two.


    Lib Dems over 30% on popular vote would be a mega victory!*


    *for the lib dems...
    _
  • Mettan
    Mettan Posts: 2,103
    edited May 2010
    Not looking good for Labour tonight - The Tories are looking like the largest party in a hung parliment (or a small chance of a majority) - 2 possibilities:

    If the Tories are ~ 20 seats short of a majority - Cameron becomes PM with the support of the DUP. Cameron will lead a Conservative administration.

    If the Tories are ~30-40 seats short of a majority - Cameron becomes PM with the "support" of the LibDems. There will be "negotiations" in this scenario but Cameron will still become the PM. (have a read around to see why this is). If Clegg causes too much trouble, the establishment would crush him in the run-up to a 2nd general election (of this year).

    Looks like its over for Labour......
  • bennett_346
    bennett_346 Posts: 5,029
    You are joking me? Did i read that correctly, cameron is likely to be our PM?

    Ah well, i've always wanted to travel to cananda...
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,310
    Crapaud wrote:
    I wonder how that would work: a Tory Government in Westminster, no Torys in N. Ireland and Scotland. Hardly a mandate to govern?

    We (NI) have no Labour or LibDem MPs either

    Mainly beause neither of the 3 main parties field candidates in NI.

    We will have a block of 9-10 DUP MPs for sale to the highest bidder in the event of a hung parliment
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • carl_p
    carl_p Posts: 989
    If the exit polls are correct than Brown has first dabs on a deal with the Lib Dems, but even then a slim working majority to force bills through.

    What with the financial markets going tits up yet again we are in for some tough times.
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  • Pokerface
    Pokerface Posts: 7,960
    I'm reading that Labour and Lib Dems still can't make a majority together. So it'll have to be the Tories and Lib Dems.
  • Mettan
    Mettan Posts: 2,103
    Carl_P wrote:
    If the exit polls are correct than Brown has first dabs on a deal with the Lib Dems, but even then a slim working majority to force bills through.

    What with the financial markets going tits up yet again we are in for some tough times.

    Nick Cleeg said last week that he will allow the party with the most seats and the biggest share of the vote to have 1st go at forming a Government - It will be a Tory Minority government supported by the DUP.
  • Pokerface
    Pokerface Posts: 7,960
    edited May 2010
    Mettan wrote:
    Carl_P wrote:
    If the exit polls are correct than Brown has first dabs on a deal with the Lib Dems, but even then a slim working majority to force bills through.

    What with the financial markets going tits up yet again we are in for some tough times.

    Nick Cleeg said last week that he will allow the party with the most seats and the biggest share of the vote will to have 1st go at forming a Government - It will be a Tory Minority government supported by the DUP.


    Just checked the rules - and it's actually the sitting party (Labour) have first crack at forming a coalition government, regardless of which party gets the most seats (short of a majority).

    Problem is - even a Lab-Lib Dem coalition still won't form a majority, so it could be a Tory-DUP govt.
  • Mettan
    Mettan Posts: 2,103
    Pokerface wrote:
    Mettan wrote:
    Carl_P wrote:
    If the exit polls are correct than Brown has first dabs on a deal with the Lib Dems, but even then a slim working majority to force bills through.

    What with the financial markets going tits up yet again we are in for some tough times.

    Nick Cleeg said last week that he will allow the party with the most seats and the biggest share of the vote will to have 1st go at forming a Government - It will be a Tory Minority government supported by the DUP.


    Just checked the rules - and it's actually the sitting party (Labour) have first crack at forming a coalition government, regardless of which party gets the most seats (short of a majority).

    It doesnt matter - Clegg has already said that he wont put Brown back in.

    Further - Clegg wouldn't support Miliband or whoever becoming PM (in the next 7 days or whatever) - the electorate haven't even voted for Miliband (that really would be strange on many levels :) ) - It'll be Tory minority government with Cameron as PM.
  • Cressers
    Cressers Posts: 1,329
    How can you 'check the rules' when we have no written constitution?

    We are indeed living in interesting times...
  • Smokin Joe
    Smokin Joe Posts: 2,706
    Another election in October.

    A coalition won't last.

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