Can Wiggins Win the Tour this Year?

bolshiebob

Bradley established that he has the stuff to be a contender in 2009. All he needs for 2010 is a team capable of supporting his strengths; the determination to win an edge over Contador and Andy Schleck in the mountains and a dollop of luck.

There was an episode in the mountains when Bradley dropped back to support Lance Armstrong and I wonder whether that might have been his chance.

redddraggon

bolshiebob wrote:

There was an episode in the mountains when Bradley dropped back to support Lance Armstrong and I wonder whether that might have been his chance.

:?:

afx237vi

redddraggon wrote:

bolshiebob wrote:

There was an episode in the mountains when Bradley dropped back to support Lance Armstrong and I wonder whether that might have been his chance.

:?:

^ What he said.

shockedsoshocked

Timoid. wrote:

teagar wrote:

Pross wrote:

But that's one win out of how many? Plus, from memory, conditions changed towards the end of the race or am I thinking of a different TT :?

You're right. As the race went on, by the final third week, Cancellara's condition compared to Contador's was worse.


Final week TTs in GTs are a different kettle of fish.

Contador had two big advantages. That friendly motorbike and Bruyneel's ace GT recovery programme.

:roll:

Philip S

afx237vi wrote:

redddraggon wrote:

bolshiebob wrote:

There was an episode in the mountains when Bradley dropped back to support Lance Armstrong and I wonder whether that might have been his chance.

:?:

^ What he said.

I seem to remember him towing Armstong up that final clmb before Le Grand Bornand, but I don't think that was intentional...

mroli

If he needs climbing support - I guess they're picking the team from:
Augustyn, Cioni, Nordhaug, Possoni, Pauwels, Portal, Gerrans, Lofkvit.
Froome and Hagen there for the experience? What about Arvesen, Thomas, Barry and Carlstrom?
Guess they just leave the sprinters (Calzati, Vegano, Sutton, Downing and Henderson) at home, Flecha and Haymans are classics riders and Kennaugh/Swift too young?

pedro118118

I don't necessarily think climbing super-domestiques are the answer for Brad. He can pretty-much hold the wheel of any rider in the mountains, except for AC and AS on the final climbs/summit finishes. Frankly, I don't think it matters how many good team-mates he has, there's no one in world cycling that can cut loose like Berto when he attacks.

I suppose one option is to ride a crazy temp throughout the stage (a la US Postal) and hope this tactic tires AC out and takes his fast finish away.

But then there's the ITTs, where he still takes time from the other GC contenders - Wiggo included!

coventryeagle

To be honest a cyclist should be winning the sports personality of the year every year in my book.

I don't think Wiggins will win the Tour but I know negative comments like this spur him on to prove people wrong, thats why I wrote it ....

I have my Union Jack ready

warrior4life

If it is a drug free tour then i dont see why he cant do better than last year, He's hitting his peak age and why cant he come in a little fitter than last year?
All the other contenders have been the same level for quite a while and cyclists seem to usually have a couple of years where they improve...
Its a massive long shot and it feels so wrong talking about a british winner, there seemed to be nobody who could even podium 12 months ago..

There seems to be a lot of possitive buzz about sky from all involved.. With better support, a slight gain in fitness and more self belief i can see him doing very well again... How well, only time will tell..

pat1cp

iainf72 wrote:

redddraggon wrote:

I think that's Iain's point - it'd be good to see the general UK population knowing more about the great sport of cycling rather than just knowing the "tour".

Yes, I'd just like if they tried to engage the public a bit more. Mind you, I had a peek at The Sun today and the launched merited about 3 line tiny article. So I guess we've not got much hope of that happening.

The Sun ??? Iain, what are you doing ??

Mind you, that's a Ruppey rag too. If they're not getting coverage in there, we've no hope.

Edit. To OP, no. Top 10 will be a good result "this" year for Brad. Anything better is an improvement on last years result IMHO.

edhornby

I'd love to see it but I think that Contador will win again, he can attack repeatedly on a climb, and this is something that no one can compete with, don't get me wrong, BW has massive talent but contador can beat him in the hills and Contador can drop the schlecks & LA as well

Although last year brad did ride the whole season from the classics, the Giro and tour, and the end season races (as a great big conditioner for 2010!) - so this year he will specialise for the tour which will help to close the gap

but he'll be a marked man again, Sastre and Evans will be in the mix....

I honestly think that 4th will be his placing again

wicked

I keep hearing he struggle to get top 10 as its a climbers course. Who are these climbers? Gesink. The others are not really climbers.
When AC and AS go no-one will able to match them, that's no shame on Wiggo. I do not see any other rider that Wiggo should fear.
The fact is on the climbs last year the lead group was a select group that Brad was consistently a member of and for me the majority of time looked comfortable. With another year to prepare and some actual knowledge of the cols this year there is no reason why he cannot match 09. Last year was the first real serious attempt so why can that not be impoved on? Everyone keeps saying its a tougher parcours well yes it is, for everyone not just Wiggo. IMHO a fit Brad will be top 5.

iainf72

wicked wrote:

Everyone keeps saying its a tougher parcours well yes it is, for everyone not just Wiggo. IMHO a fit Brad will be top 5.

A harder course suits some more than others. The mountain top finishes in 09 weren't that hard either. If Ventoux had been raced properly the result probably would've been different.

I posted this a while ago

http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtop ... t=12661013

wicked

iainf72 wrote:

wicked wrote:

Everyone keeps saying its a tougher parcours well yes it is, for everyone not just Wiggo. IMHO a fit Brad will be top 5.

A harder course suits some more than others. The mountain top finishes in 09 weren't that hard either. If Ventoux had been raced properly the result probably would've been different.

I posted this a while ago

http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtop ... t=12661013

Yes I see that but life is full of ifs (no pun). If this ,if that, but it didn't. You could say this about every tour and every sport and really tie yourself in knots. We will see. It will certainly be very, very interesting this year and as a classics fan I can say that I cannot wait for the tour!

RichN95.

wicked wrote:

I keep hearing he struggle to get top 10 as its a climbers course. Who are these climbers? Gesink. The others are not really climbers.
When AC and AS go no-one will able to match them, that's no shame on Wiggo. I do not see any other rider that Wiggo should fear.
The fact is on the climbs last year the lead group was a select group that Brad was consistently a member of and for me the majority of time looked comfortable. With another year to prepare and some actual knowledge of the cols this year there is no reason why he cannot match 09. Last year was the first real serious attempt so why can that not be impoved on? Everyone keeps saying its a tougher parcours well yes it is, for everyone not just Wiggo. IMHO a fit Brad will be top 5.

It's not so much that there's lots more mountains, which there isn't especially, it's that there's a lot less time trialling, where Wiggins gains time on everyone bar Contador.

paulcuthbert

No

DaveyL

You going to tweet him "See I told you, you suck?" the first time he gets dropped?

Jez mon

If this time last year, he had come out and said "I'm going for a top ten placing next year" I'm guessing the reaction would have been pretty similar to this. i.e. no! However, he had a great ride and finished in a very respectable finish. If he continues his improvements as a GC rider, even a little bit, this year he could get on the podium...

RichN95.

Jez mon wrote:

If this time last year, he had come out and said "I'm going for a top ten placing next year" I'm guessing the reaction would have been pretty similar to this. i.e. no! However, he had a great ride and finished in a very respectable finish. If he continues his improvements as a GC rider, even a little bit, this year he could get on the podium...

Why go that far back when you have the first week of this year's Tour:

http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=12635233&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0

It even has a picture of a flying pig

frenchfighter

Wiggins will likely be better than last year given he is happy, has very good team personel, is more focused on one event, will have a better bike fit for climbing (according to him) and will have another year of training in him.

But then Schleck will also be better as his TTing will improve.

Contador will be better also if simply because his mind will be free from stupid outside influences.

thamacdaddy

Suprised at people having a go at him for saying the tour has to be the focus. The irony of that statement bringing scorn here when we all know should sky not do well at the tour they will also be universally panned here. Stopped jumping on the guy and wait for the team to show what they can do.

I am excited for the new season, that being all the races and checking out all the teams. Bring it on!!!!!

Pross

wicked wrote:

iainf72 wrote:

wicked wrote:

Everyone keeps saying its a tougher parcours well yes it is, for everyone not just Wiggo. IMHO a fit Brad will be top 5.

A harder course suits some more than others. The mountain top finishes in 09 weren't that hard either. If Ventoux had been raced properly the result probably would've been different.
I posted this a while ago

http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtop ... t=12661013

Yes I see that but life is full of ifs (no pun). If this ,if that, but it didn't. You could say this about every tour and every sport and really tie yourself in knots. We will see. It will certainly be very, very interesting this year and as a classics fan I can say that I cannot wait for the tour!

How does anyone know that it wasn't raced properly? Perhaps everyone was too knackered tackling that beast at the end of a 3 week tour to race 'properly'?

coxy84

think it depends whether last tour he had reached his full potential or whether he still has room for improvement, i fear it may be the former.

still may put some money on him to win just incase

ju5t1n

...well I’m going to have a punt on him

@TheStone - where did you find odds of 22-1? ...William Hill have him at 4th favourite with a measly 14-1

DaveyL

RichN95 wrote:

Why go that far back when you have the first week of this year's Tour:

http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=12635233&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0

It even has a picture of a flying pig

Good to look back over that one.

aurelio - banned wrote:

afx237vi wrote:

I wonder what CVV thinks of Wiggo's GC ambitions?

Tour record

2007, DNF, Cofidis withdrew after stage 16 due to Moreni positive
2006, 123rd

Giro record

2009, 71st
2008, 134th
2005, 123rd
2003, DNF, outside time limit stage 18

With a record like that we may see him win the Tour a number of times. After all Indurain, Riis and Armstrong all won the Tour after having a similarly mediocre early Grand Tour record. It's almost a pity that Wiggins is so anti-doping.

Dgh

The answer to the question is, yes, but unlikely.

AC, on form, is the best GT rider around right now. He's showed that he can cope with mind games. He's tactically sound. Injury or positive test aside, he should win. But, what will his team be like.

AS is a better climber than BW, but can't TT so well.

LA is likely to be in good shape, but he can't turn back time. I'd expect to see him in a similar position to last year.

We can expect BW to turn up in good shape. He showed that he can stick with the big boys in most of the climbs. However, I'm concerned that he may not be able to turn on the power burst like AC, or like LA in the past, to drop people rather than just stick with them. I'm also concerned about how he'll last - last year he faded slightly towards the end. But, Dave B knows how to plan to win, we can expect Sky to have a plan, here's hoping.

gabriel959

Indurain’s record wasn’t so bad in the GTs. He had been improving for quite a long time:

Tour Record:

1985: Withdrew, 4th stage
1986: Withdrew, 8th stage
1987: 97th
1988: 47th
1989: 17th
1990: 10th
1991: 1st
1992: 1st
1993: 1st
1994: 1st
1995: 1st
1996: 11th

Vuelta Record:

1985: 84th
1986: 92nd
1987: Withdrew
1988: Withdrew
1989: Withdrew
1990: 7th
1991: 2nd


Even Riis had a decent record previous to him winning it. He finished in the top ten twice before winning it.

Regarding Armstrong he was a bit of an unknown quantity after his cancer surgery but he had some extremely good results prior to the illness as well (although no remarkable placings in a overall GT classification)

iainf72

frenchfighter wrote:

Wiggins will likely be better than last year given he is happy, has very good team personel, is more focused on one event, will have a better bike fit for climbing (according to him) and will have another year of training in him.

He had all of those things last year (aside from bike) This year he'll have the pressure of expectation too.

Without a TTT last year he would've been 5'th. Funnily, without a TTT Frank and Lance would've been on same time for 3'rd spot.

iainf72

frenchfighter wrote:

Wiggins will likely be better than last year given he is happy, has very good team personel, is more focused on one event, will have a better bike fit for climbing (according to him) and will have another year of training in him.

He had all of those things last year (aside from bike) This year he'll have the pressure of expectation too.

Without a TTT last year he would've been 5'th. Funnily, without a TTT Frank and Lance would've been on same time for 3'rd spot.

jerry3571

Sastre is a good outside bet there. I'd put him close to Evans.
I think he'll get his form better this year; last year he didn't get it right at all.
Something would have to happen to Contador (he does bonk from time to time and screw up in the tactics department and Shrek jnr needs to somehow not perform; crash a bit like big brother Shrek snr).
Sastre's got to be worth a fiver!
-Jerry

+ Last time I bet on a rider it was when Michael Rogres first came on to the scene winning everything in sight. Got to the Tour and he ran out of gas. I don't think he won the Prologue or any TT in that Tour. I lost a whole pound!! I was gutted..