Can Wiggins Win the Tour this Year?

bobtbuilder

He'll finish somewhere between 6th - 10th.

Last year he had the surprise factor, having never threatened on GC before. The real GC favourites won't give him an inch next year.

TheStone

El Imbatido wrote:

TheStone wrote:

Very early odds has Brad 5th favourite.

Contador Velasco, A 1.70
Schleck, Andy 6.50
Armstrong, L 7.00
Evans, C 20.00
Wiggins, B 22.00
Basso, I 25.00
Gesink, R 25.00
Valverde, A 25.00
Menchov, D 30.00
Rasmussen, M 30.00
Sanchez, S 35.00
Nibali, V 35.00
Leipheimer, L 40.00
Sastre, C 45.00
Klöden, A 50.00
Kreuziger, R 50.00
Schleck, Frank 50.00
VandeVelde, C 50.00
Vinokourov, A 50.00
Pellizotti, F 60.00
Martin, Tony 65.00

Is this a piss take...........Michael Rasmussen? Isn't he riding with some third rate continental team. Highly doubt he will be there in July and even if his team was invited i can't see the ASO letting him race

From unibet. Some of the odds are a bit strange, I guess they're trying to cover every
option. Can't see Rasm or Vino riding. If I was having a outside bet it would be Basso.

But really, it's a shootout between Contador and thin Schleck, who at 24 (!) should still
be improving.

Belv

I don't think he can but that should be his target - "shoot for the stars" and all. Before last year, who'd have given him a shot at 4th?

Not sure the element of surprise counts for much over a 3 week stage race? As soon as he became a threat this year, the leaders teams moved against him. VdV was a huge help to Bradley in the mountains last year. Is there anyone in Team Sky strong enough to do that this year?

jerry3571

I think if Schleck junior and Contador have reasons not to start the Tour then Wiggo may have a chance. Wiggo has gone from a Team who had Vandevelde, who helped him in the high mountains, to a Team without great climbing prowess. Serge Pauwels, Cioni, Michael Barry, Thomas Lofkvist are good but not amazing. (Cioni could be very good though)
I think a move to Cervelo would've made more sense as he could have worked with Sastre. Sastre would fire off down the road and Wiggo could follow the wheels. Wiggins could try to hang on in the Mountains and then do a good TT. (I think I am entering cloud cuckoo land here; it's not happening is it ). It probably happens like this: Wiggins doesn't quite get his form back (Vandevelde style) then gets top 15. Not good.
Also, for 2010, again, Sastre looks as though he will be riding in the Mountains on his own again; bonkers!


-Jerry

singlespeedexplosif

I still think Wiggins should aim for a win in the Giro
the Giro is even more of a b@stard than the Tour this year!

FJS

cougie wrote:

Of course cycling fans know that there are other races - but to 95% of the population - (and thats the market that Sky are after) its the Tour de France and nothing else.

That's the situation now, but I imagine Sky will try to get some coverage for the team throughout the year, and perhaps boost races with easy media appeal like Paris-Roubaix a bit. It's not like they don't have access to mass media....

FJS

TheStone wrote:

Very early odds has Brad 5th favourite.

Contador Velasco, A 1.70
Schleck, Andy 6.50
Armstrong, L 7.00
Evans, C 20.00
Wiggins, B 22.00
Basso, I 25.00
Gesink, R 25.00
Valverde, A 25.00
Menchov, D 30.00
Rasmussen, M 30.00
Sanchez, S 35.00
Nibali, V 35.00
Leipheimer, L 40.00
Sastre, C 45.00
Klöden, A 50.00
Kreuziger, R 50.00
Schleck, Frank 50.00
VandeVelde, C 50.00
Vinokourov, A 50.00
Pellizotti, F 60.00
Martin, Tony 65.00

It'll be between Bertie and Andy, and of this list Andy Schleck is a good bet - in fact really good.

singlespeedexplosif

that's a really good price for Shrek the younger. Time to remortgage.
Armstrong at 7s? Crazy.

josame

Iainf72:
While the Tour may be what the man in the street knows, why not say something like "while the Tour is great we hope to engage the British fans with the many other great and classic races" After all, is the Tour all that matters to a Flandrian?

Yes we must consider the needs of the Flandrians - I'd be supprised if that many people know who they are. Not likely to pop up in that many concversations on cycling by your average joe.

Tom Butcher

Agree Schleck looks a fair price - on form Contador is pretty much unbeatable but he's got to make the start line in decent form and then get through 3 weeks without serious mishap.

Of the others Basso looks OK for the money - partly depends on what was fuelling his pre-ban form. Is Valverde expected to ride this year ?

thomasmc

FJS wrote:

TheStone wrote:

Very early odds has Brad 5th favourite.

Contador Velasco, A 1.70
Schleck, Andy 6.50
Armstrong, L 7.00
Evans, C 20.00
Wiggins, B 22.00
Basso, I 25.00
Gesink, R 25.00
Valverde, A 25.00
Menchov, D 30.00
Rasmussen, M 30.00
Sanchez, S 35.00
Nibali, V 35.00
Leipheimer, L 40.00
Sastre, C 45.00
Klöden, A 50.00
Kreuziger, R 50.00
Schleck, Frank 50.00
VandeVelde, C 50.00
Vinokourov, A 50.00
Pellizotti, F 60.00
Martin, Tony 65.00

It'll be between Bertie and Andy, and of this list Andy Schleck is a good bet - in fact really good.

To me an each way on Frank @ 50/1 looks good value

mididoctors

no

FJS

thomasmc wrote:

FJS wrote:

It'll be between Bertie and Andy, and of this list Andy Schleck is a good bet - in fact really good.

To me an each way on Frank @ 50/1 looks good value

Hmmm, I don't see a scenario of Frank winning anything with a TT in it

redddraggon

josame wrote:

Iainf72:
While the Tour may be what the man in the street knows, why not say something like "while the Tour is great we hope to engage the British fans with the many other great and classic races" After all, is the Tour all that matters to a Flandrian?

Yes we must consider the needs of the Flandrians - I'd be supprised if that many people know who they are. Not likely to pop up in that many concversations on cycling by your average joe.

I have a Belgian (from Flanders) friend who has very little interest in cycling but still seems to know what's going on cycling.

I think that's Iain's point - it'd be good to see the general UK population knowing more about the great sport of cycling rather than just knowing the "tour".

frenchfighter

singlespeedexplosif wrote:

I still think Wiggins should aim for a win in the Giro
the Giro is even more of a b@stard than the Tour this year!

The main reason for my point was that Contador, Andy or Frank aren't participating.

oldwelshman

RichN95 wrote:

chriskempton wrote:

Hate (a lot) to say it but Vino looks the value there - coming back to form rapidly at the back of last season and could be worth a long shot at 50/1.

Of course I don't think he'll win it though

I'd sooner go for Vande Velde than Vino as a 50/1 outsider.

+1 good bet that.
Anything can happen over the month of riding, Contador could always bonk and loose time like previously.

As for Brad he just has to hang ion as much as possible on the climbs. I am not convinced all the talk of team help counts for too much on climbs, you dont get pushed up the hills More important to have good team on flat stages.

Contador has won loads with little support in the hills so if your god enough you will do ok.

gabriel959

Unlikely though. The traditional sports in this country are Football, Rugby and Cricket.

I have a few basque friends that are not into cycling but know more than your average cycling enthusiast, heck they know things I don’t know! That is because the Basque region of Spain has got a traditional cycling culture.

iainf72

redddraggon wrote:

I think that's Iain's point - it'd be good to see the general UK population knowing more about the great sport of cycling rather than just knowing the "tour".

Yes, I'd just like if they tried to engage the public a bit more. Mind you, I had a peek at The Sun today and the launched merited about 3 line tiny article. So I guess we've not got much hope of that happening.

pedro118118

Of course, he has a chance, albeit an outside one.

The main problem is Alberto Contador - he is a far more explosive climber than Wiggo and is as good as/better TT rider these days. Begs the question, where is Wiggo going to gain time? Like everyone else, he's hoping something goes wrong for AC early in the race and he loses too much time to gain it back in the mountains.

Add to that the likes of Schleck, Evans, Basso, Armstrong (and AK, LL) and the new blood (Kreuziger, Gessink, Nibali etc) and it is a BIG ask.

Top 5 would be a good result.

afx237vi

gabriel959 wrote:

Unlikely though. The traditional sports in this country are Football, Rugby and Cricket.

I have a few basque friends that are not into cycling but know more than your average cycling enthusiast, heck they know things I don’t know! That is because the Basque region of Spain has got a traditional cycling culture.

They aren't the only sports though. If you give any sport the proper amount of coverage and promotion, then it's likely to get a bigger fanbase.

Go to any general sports forum right now and I guarantee one of the most talked about sports will be darts. Why? Because Sky Sports have pumped money into it, hyped it up and given it excellent TV coverage.

Obviously, Sky won't do that for cycling, but I see no reason another channel can't, especially since there is loads of British interest now. Take the classics, show them live on a mainstream TV channel - BBC 2 or something - and there's no reason that cycling can't be on the same level as, say, tennis or F1.

Philip S

pedro118118 wrote:

The main problem is Alberto Contador - he is a far more explosive climber than Wiggo and is as good as/better TT rider these days. Begs the question, where is Wiggo going to gain time? Like everyone else, he's hoping something goes wrong for AC early in the race and he loses too much time to gain it back in the mountains.

The only place I can see this happening is in the first week over the cobbles. I'm hoping that leads to some pretty tasty racing in the first week...

frenchfighter

Philip S wrote:

pedro118118 wrote:

The main problem is Alberto Contador - he is a far more explosive climber than Wiggo and is as good as/better TT rider these days. Begs the question, where is Wiggo going to gain time? Like everyone else, he's hoping something goes wrong for AC early in the race and he loses too much time to gain it back in the mountains.

The only place I can see this happening is in the first week over the cobbles. I'm hoping that leads to some pretty tasty racing in the first week...

Yeah I hope Wiggins has a few minutes on Contador and the Schlecks come the Pyrenees.

shockedsoshocked

I don't think he'll win the Tour. Maybe some of the smaller stage races containing a TT, the Dauphine, Paris-Nice, Tirreno Adriatico etc.

grahamg123

I don't think wiggo will win it but I think he'll be closer to the Schlecks and Contador on the climbs. His climbing improved massively in the 10 months leading to the 09 Tour and he knows he needs more so surely, with the support and know-how of BC and, by extension, being at team Sky, this could be achieved. After all, there is a proven track (no pun intended) record of identifying weakness and eliminating it at BC.

Pross

al2098 wrote:

Sure he can do it. Just needs to be stronger than Contador in the mountains, thats all. Forget the TT's. Contador will win them.
They have to take him apart in the mountains and last year I just thought that Contador was all too comfortable. He could have blown them all to bits but was constrained by a whinging 'lets see Lance come good' team..
So if Contador is let loose on the mountains this year, lets hope Brad is on some serious pasta if he wants to win.

:? I think Cancellara might have something to say about that or do you mean Contador will be the best placed of the GC contenders?

redddraggon

Pross wrote:

al2098 wrote:

Sure he can do it. Just needs to be stronger than Contador in the mountains, thats all. Forget the TT's. Contador will win them.
They have to take him apart in the mountains and last year I just thought that Contador was all too comfortable. He could have blown them all to bits but was constrained by a whinging 'lets see Lance come good' team..
So if Contador is let loose on the mountains this year, lets hope Brad is on some serious pasta if he wants to win.

:? I think Cancellara might have something to say about that or do you mean Contador will be the best placed of the GC contenders?

Who won the Annecy TT?

Pross

But that's one win out of how many? Plus, from memory, conditions changed towards the end of the race or am I thinking of a different TT :?

afx237vi

Contador beat Cancellara in both TTs in 2007 (excluding the prologue).

teagar

Pross wrote:

But that's one win out of how many? Plus, from memory, conditions changed towards the end of the race or am I thinking of a different TT :?

You're right. As the race went on, by the final third week, Cancellara's condition compared to Contador's was worse.


Final week TTs in GTs are a different kettle of fish.

timoid.

teagar wrote:

Pross wrote:

But that's one win out of how many? Plus, from memory, conditions changed towards the end of the race or am I thinking of a different TT :?

You're right. As the race went on, by the final third week, Cancellara's condition compared to Contador's was worse.


Final week TTs in GTs are a different kettle of fish.

Contador had two big advantages. That friendly motorbike and Bruyneel's ace GT recovery programme.