Can Wiggins Win the Tour this Year?

Cheesyman99

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/cycling/8439713.stm

He thinks he can

iainf72

He's not likely to say "Well, Contador, Schleck, Evans, Lance and Basso will make mince meat of me, but hey, have you seen my bank balance", will he?

I do wish he'd not say things like "To be honest it is the only race that matters. How we get on will be how the team is judged so it remains the goal."

While the Tour may be what the man in the street knows, why not say something like "while the Tour is great we hope to engage the British fans with the many other great and classic races" After all, is the Tour all that matters to a Flandrian?

mroli

I've just been looking at the squad and thinking who will be in the frame for the team. As there is no team TT and Wiggo is quick enough on the flat to look after himself - will they pick a team of climbers to help him? Will they pick a team of all-rounders (I'm thinking Swift/Sutton/BH)? Or will they mix it up with a couple of sprinters in there as well (is it even worth contesting these against Hushovd/Cavendish?) Any thoughts?

sing_for_absolution

No chance.

Cheesyman99

Will he able to get anything over Contador in the TT's?

Tusher

Agreed- the Tour is not the only race. I gather they'll not be wanting to ride the Vuelta and the Giro then.

No point even taking a sprinter to a race Cav or Greipel are going to. Would take up too much room on the team bus.

If I were Brailsford, I would target the Young Riders Jersey with EBH and Froome.

And take as much climbing support as I could for Brad in the mountains.

Can Wiggins win?
Of course it would be fantastic, but it all depends on what happens to Contador, Baby Schleck, Evans and Armstrong et al between now and July.

Although I suppose Sky do have the budget required to hire a crack team to exterminate them by then.








Oh buggrit, Daleks and David Tennant again. But Daleks should do the trick, Mr Brailsford.
So, to answer your question, yes, Bradley Wiggins can win Le Tour de France 2010 as long as Daleks are employed by Team Sky.

iainf72

Cheesyman99 wrote:

Will he able to get anything over Contador in the TT's?

Contador beat him in both TT's last year.

By the time the TT comes around, I reckon he'll be a bit off the pace.

coxy84

I wouldn t put it past him just finished reading his book the guy is immensley driven and determined, but having said that if contador is on form i can t see it unfortunately just different class

Cheesyman99

Just got a feeling DaveB has a trick up his sleeve for stopping Contador.
Just you wait, he's a genius, he'll know what to do

iainf72

coxy84 wrote:

I wouldn t put it past him just finished reading his book the guy is immensley driven and determined, but having said that if contador is on form i can t see it unfortunately just different class

At Sky, it's all on his shoulders. So he's got to remain healthy and what not for 23 days. What happened just before Beijing?

moray_gub

iainf72 wrote:

Cheesyman99 wrote:

Will he able to get anything over Contador in the TT's?

Contador beat him in both TT's last year.

By the time the TT comes around, I reckon he'll be a bit off the pace.

Agreed if he is top 10 at that point he will be doing well . In answer to the OP if there is a Foinavon kinda thing then maybe he has a chance

dennisn

iainf72 wrote:

He's not likely to say "Well, Contador, Schleck, Evans, Lance and Basso will make mince meat of me, but hey, have you seen my bank balance", will he?

I do wish he'd not say things like "To be honest it is the only race that matters. How we get on will be how the team is judged so it remains the goal."

Once you get to that top level in cycling, maybe winning the TDF somehow becomes a single minded pursuit, a la Lance. Maybe he feels that no other race really puts you in the spotlight like the Tour. Maybe he thinks that people forget who wins Milan-San Remo or the Giro. And maybe he's right(to a point). Maybe your name does stick better in the minds of people after you've won the TDF.

moray_gub

dennisn wrote:

iainf72 wrote:

He's not likely to say "Well, Contador, Schleck, Evans, Lance and Basso will make mince meat of me, but hey, have you seen my bank balance", will he?

I do wish he'd not say things like "To be honest it is the only race that matters. How we get on will be how the team is judged so it remains the goal."

Once you get to that top level in cycling, maybe winning the TDF somehow becomes a single minded pursuit, a la Lance. Maybe he feels that no other race really puts you in the spotlight like the Tour. Maybe he thinks that people forget who wins Milan-San Remo or the Giro. And maybe he's right(to a point). Maybe your name does stick better in the minds of people after you've won the TDF.

He is right as far as the British public in terms of winning other races goes as Cavendish won Milan San Remo last year but you wouldnt have know it in the mainstream press and public in general. Apart from people like us who follow the sport your avergae Joe knows nothing about the Spring classics or the two other Gts or the Eneco Tour The Tour De France is really the only gig in town.

frenchfighter

I don't think Sky expect a win in the Tour with all the talk of having one in the next 5 years. I think Wiggins will be top 10 if he doesn't have an awful day but this is a real climbers Tour thankfully so the mountains will decide and Frank, Andy and Contador are in a class of their own.

I agree Iain about saying 'the only race that matters' - maybe to those of the English public who only having a passing interest but to a true fan that is long from being the case (I wouldn't mind if Contador didn't ride the Tour and crushed the Giro and Vuelta).

I still think Wiggins should aim for a win in the Giro although given the class of rider rocking up this year, a podium is also unlikely even if he is at full gas.

iainf72

Moray Gub wrote:

Apart from people like us who follow the sport your avergae Joe knows nothing about the Spring classics or the two other Gts or the Eneco Tour The Tour De France is really the only gig in town.

Yeah, but it would be nice if they tried to at least let people know there's more to the sport than the Tour and riding around a wooden circle every 4 years.

moray_gub

iainf72 wrote:

Moray Gub wrote:

Apart from people like us who follow the sport your avergae Joe knows nothing about the Spring classics or the two other Gts or the Eneco Tour The Tour De France is really the only gig in town.

Yeah, but it would be nice if they tried to at least let people know there's more to the sport than the Tour and riding around a wooden circle every 4 years.

Of course but you know as well as me that the average Joe is not interested in that its just not a sport thats ingrained in our culture and you cant really change that . Look at the move to try and get American Football mainstream it just didnt work i think professional cycling is kinda the same a niche sport if you like But i do agree it would be nice if they werent so Tour focused and did make comment on other objectives.

TheStone

Tusher wrote:

If I were Brailsford, I would target the Young Riders Jersey with EBH and Froome.

I think Andy Schleck still qualifies as young rider (as crazy as that sounds).

Can see Wiggins finding it harder this year.
Contador and Schleck are a given.
Armstrong and Basso could do anything.
Evans without the pressure.
plus a whole heap of contenders (who else from Liquigas are likely to go?)

al2098

Sure he can do it. Just needs to be stronger than Contador in the mountains, thats all. Forget the TT's. Contador will win them.
They have to take him apart in the mountains and last year I just thought that Contador was all too comfortable. He could have blown them all to bits but was constrained by a whinging 'lets see Lance come good' team..
So if Contador is let loose on the mountains this year, lets hope Brad is on some serious pasta if he wants to win.

afx237vi

TheStone wrote:

Tusher wrote:

If I were Brailsford, I would target the Young Riders Jersey with EBH and Froome.

I think Andy Schleck still qualifies as young rider (as crazy as that sounds).

He still qualifies in 2011 too... he'll probably beat Ullrich's record.

coxy84

you can see why he wants to win it badly it is by far the biggest cycle race in the world.
if he won the tour whats the bet he d get sports pesonality of the year !?

cougie

Of course cycling fans know that there are other races - but to 95% of the population - (and thats the market that Sky are after) its the Tour de France and nothing else.

Contadors not with Bruyneel now - and Lances ex Teammates havent covered themselves in glory in the past - so maybe theres something there ?

Anything is possible in cycling - I'd be amazed if he won it - but he does stand a fairly decent chance. Lets see how it goes in July ?

TheStone

Very early odds has Brad 5th favourite.

Contador Velasco, A 1.70
Schleck, Andy 6.50
Armstrong, L 7.00
Evans, C 20.00
Wiggins, B 22.00
Basso, I 25.00
Gesink, R 25.00
Valverde, A 25.00
Menchov, D 30.00
Rasmussen, M 30.00
Sanchez, S 35.00
Nibali, V 35.00
Leipheimer, L 40.00
Sastre, C 45.00
Klöden, A 50.00
Kreuziger, R 50.00
Schleck, Frank 50.00
VandeVelde, C 50.00
Vinokourov, A 50.00
Pellizotti, F 60.00
Martin, Tony 65.00

chriskempton

Hate (a lot) to say it but Vino looks the value there - coming back to form rapidly at the back of last season and could be worth a long shot at 50/1.

Of course I don't think he'll win it though

afx237vi

chriskempton wrote:

Hate (a lot) to say it but Vino looks the value there - coming back to form rapidly at the back of last season and could be worth a long shot at 50/1.

Of course I don't think he'll win it though

Did you miss the Vuelta? He got pasted on the first mountain stage and quit a day later.

RichN95.

chriskempton wrote:

Hate (a lot) to say it but Vino looks the value there - coming back to form rapidly at the back of last season and could be worth a long shot at 50/1.

Of course I don't think he'll win it though

I'd sooner go for Vande Velde than Vino as a 50/1 outsider.

dougzz

With this course it's hard to look beyond Contador and Schleck. Wiggo may find it hard to match last year's place, do Sky have climbing support to match what he had at Garmin?

teagar

Surprised VdV doesn't have shorter odds.

He's a good rider. I'd even go as far to suggest that there's little separating him and Wiggins.

He wasn't properly prepped for the 2009 Tour but still did some sterling work in the mountains, esp in the final week.


Anyone else think Wiggins will lose a podium spot in the final week? I think his recovery will be his undoing for any stab at top three.

richard wants a baum

I think Bradley is one of a few riders that benefited from a strong TTT, which in my view killed off half the contenders by the 4th stage. He wont win it (in my opinon ) his best chance for a podium is that Contador gets a massive amount of time early and everyone else starts watching each other. If not eveyones going to be blowing themselves up on the mountain stages, and as good as he rode this year i think he was helped with the controlled way Astana brought back attacks.

SpaceJunk

If Wiggins gets top 5 he will surpass his achievement. Barring injury, non-invites or positive dope tests, it looks like a shoot-out between Andy and AC.

There really are a good 10 riders who will be vying for the next places:

- Gesink
- Valverde (pending)
- Frank Schleck
- Armstrong
- Wiggins
- Evans
- Kreuziger
- Nibali
- Vande Velde
- Sastre

These 10 riders could finish in any order. However, I reckon most of these riders still have the edge on Wiggins when it comes to the HIGH mountains.

Wiggins could in theory finish as low as 8-10 and still technically have a better race than in '09.

Moontrane

To answer your question: Can? Yes. Will? No.

He would need his rivals to have crashes, injuries, or illnesses to the extent that they would be out of the running.

Love to see him succeed.

El Imbatido

TheStone wrote:

Very early odds has Brad 5th favourite.

Contador Velasco, A 1.70
Schleck, Andy 6.50
Armstrong, L 7.00
Evans, C 20.00
Wiggins, B 22.00
Basso, I 25.00
Gesink, R 25.00
Valverde, A 25.00
Menchov, D 30.00
Rasmussen, M 30.00
Sanchez, S 35.00
Nibali, V 35.00
Leipheimer, L 40.00
Sastre, C 45.00
Klöden, A 50.00
Kreuziger, R 50.00
Schleck, Frank 50.00
VandeVelde, C 50.00
Vinokourov, A 50.00
Pellizotti, F 60.00
Martin, Tony 65.00

Is this a piss take...........Michael Rasmussen? Isn't he riding with some third rate continental team. Highly doubt he will be there in July and even if his team was invited i can't see the ASO letting him race