US Politics / Biden thread
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Or Swifties. Followers of British betting exchanges knew this though.
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Another purveyor of tuneful ditties has spoken.
Meanwhile, the Latin music chap whom Trump misgendered when claiming her/him as a supporter ("Do you know Nicky? She's hot!"), has gone to ground and unendorsed Trump.
I stick with owning up to complete ignorance of popular culture, though I'm not attempting to get elected to anything, even the parish council.
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When I do, it tends to just confirm that it's 'well done pop'... I listened to 'Shake It Off' only after I'd rehearsed a brass arrangement of it for graduations. With all the hype, I thought Adele was going to be something I'd regret having missed, but after a couple of songs, I just thought 'meh' (not least as I don't like her voice).
The first time I heard Wonderwall was in this version, and which I still know much better (as I've played it too) than the original:
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Hang on, I'm not sure that the thread police will approve of this poptastic tangent.
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I’ve got that Paul Anka album. There’s some great covers on there, you sit listening and think a song is vaguely familiar and after a while you realise what it is. Smells Like Teen Spirit was a favourite of mine.
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I've done several of them with various bands, and yes, they work on their own rights... Eye of The Tiger ought to be terrible, but it is just so well done (as is Smells Like Teen Spirit) that it kind of messes with your head when you hear the original afterwards. Anka's got a great voice too, though he is a massive jerk, as evidenced by this (sadly the audio has disappeared from the interweb) :
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I was at a work do thing in Liverpool in 96, we had Mike Flowers Pops performing live, inc of course Wonderwall. And they did lots of toons covers inc I recall Björk. Memories...
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Since RC gives some weight to Theil-funded Nate Silver's reading of the tealeaves... a week ago that was 64% probability for Trump, so I guess the change will exercise Trump somewhat.
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Natesilvers model is the same as before he was funded by thiel.
Maybe it’s just me but people can divorce their political opinions from their work you know.
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It's not, according to his own blog. Lots of 'minor tweaks'. Anyway, apart from my snide dig, just thought it was interesting the change in likelihood he's posted.
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I'm going to give Rick a like too for at least trying to find out what the predictions are, rather than me just disparaging them.
It looks like it's going to be close at the moment. I don't get why there are station votes already though, without Googling?
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Did you read it?
The Silver Bulletin presidential model is the same model that I developed and published when I worked for FiveThirtyEight from 2008 through 2023.1 So with relatively few exceptions, the model is identical to the one I ran at FiveThirtyEight in 2020
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‘Relatively few exceptions’ doesn’t equal ‘the same’. Changing 49% of something could be argued to be relatively few, a single change that makes a massive difference is also relatively few.
Saying something is identical except for these few changes is one for the trivially annoying thread for me.
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Did you read it, past the first nine words?
All sorts of tweaks, and neither you nor I are in a position to assess what differences they make to the output. If it's anything like weather forecasts (maybe not a rubbish analogy, given all the variables), small tweaks can lead to very different outputs in the models.
I cynical person might ask why Theil would have bought Theil and his polling expertise.
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Yes, it then gets contradicted by the words that follow that says there are ‘relatively few changes’ it can’t be both the same and have had changes. It’s the sort of thing that instinctively makes me cynical.
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Blimey, Joe states this has happened in the passed. I'm a bit surprised by it though I can't imagine it happening in a cabinet meeting here.
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Who *do* you respect?
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I mean the internet is gonna internet but when the guy writes “it’s the same model” and I refer to it at the same model, it really ought not be up for debate.
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I'm not sure what the fuss is about. She was there to give an update on an initiative of hers as FLOTUS. Yes, Biden is getting old, but he's going anyway.
Steve Cortes is a Trumpist, BTW, who calls Harris a Radical Marxist.
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You really need to learn the difference between “passed” and “past”
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.2 -
You really take everything written as verbatim?
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Like I said though, I can't imagine it happening during a cabinet meeting here.
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Seriously, did you read the rest of that article where he says all the bits that are different? As Pross says, those first nine words misrepresent the rest of what he wrote. Can you not conceive that he might have an interest in saying that his modelling is unchanging and neutral to give himself credibility in making out everything is consistent, when, actually, he himself then goes on to describe all the things he's altered?
Your in danger of turning me into a @First.Aspect (Take that as you will, FA.)
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I mean, a Nissan Micra is 'the same model', apart from all the things that have changed.
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