US Politics / Biden thread
Comments
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For sure, I'd not be wanting to rely on outperforming the polls.
That said, it all seems somewhat contentious:
https://www.salon.com/2024/09/06/nate-silver-faces-backlash-for-pro-model-skewing/
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He got backlash when he put his neck on the line and said trump had a 1 in 3 chance to win the election - the rest of the predictions were much less generous to trump.
i know 538 is sold and he left but his track record is solid til this point.
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Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Clinton 71.4% / Trump 28.6%
Ummm, it wasn't so hot in the passed.
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I bet Nate Diaz would have been more accurate.
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I'm sorry, he predicted the losing candidate. That ain't solid.
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It's more like a jelly.
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I tried to Google Harris with a jelly for parity, nada.
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He is not making predictions. The only use of his percentages is to spot value in the betting markets. He's a gambler.
If someone offers you better than evens that a coin toss will be heads, you should take it. That isn't a prediction.
It's up to you how provable you think the model is for a presidential race, given there isn't another 9 of them with the same situation to see 3 of them going one way and 7 the other.
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Breaking…
“Donald Trump safe after gunshots 'in his vicinity' - campaign”
Dunno what it means.
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In the area, it might not be connected.
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It means he's desperate for a bump (in his poll ratings, not Laura Loomer), and reckons it'll work a second time.
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"What appeared to be the barrel of a gun", on a golf course?
A golf club handle? Just speculating...
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Donald anal probe.🤔
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My cynical mind would suggest that he's got plenty of followers with guns who'd be up for a bit of bang bang near Trump who'd happily martyr themselves for The Orange Chosen One for a bit of fame (even if posthumously). I'd put nothing past him: he is desperate, and those pulling his strings would do anything to secure his victory.
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Since Florida has pretty much open access to guns and you don't need a permit to carry one, it would be kind of surprising if there weren't people carrying them on golf clubs.
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My thoughts exactly. Craves attention and hasn’t been getting enough lately (not Laura Loomer).
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There may be a clue in this news photo. 😉
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
When the tweeter mentioned 'suspicions individual' I thought he meant Trump and that the Secret Service had shot the wrong guy!
(Wishful thinking)
Does feel like a convenient set up by Trump
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The suspect looks suspiciously like a MAGA type.
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I'm longing for the day someone could tag onto the twenty strong motorcade in an ice cream van, music playing full chat.
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"Violence has no place in our country. It's not who we are as a nation."
Erm...
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He must have been embarrassed writing that. I'd imagine Mr Walz lives in a gated community.
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The US has the greatest democracy and the greatest legal system in the world as well.
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It's why they have such high quality competition for the top job and a legal system that is independent of political pressure
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😆
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