US Politics / Biden thread
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Just listened to his book Hillbilly Elegy on Spotify - not a bad listen and not very long. His background is very much what I imagine are core Trump supporters.
[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]0 -
People calling this for Trump already are forgetting 2 fundamentals
1 Trump isn't popular
2 America dumped Trump as soon as they seen a candidate they could hang their vote on once already
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Some big endorsements coming out for Harris
Elizabeth Warren
AOC
Nancy Pelosi
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
https://abcnews.go.com/538/polls-harris-trump-matchup/story?id=112162146
538 people (they got bought by ABC) are not especially bullish on Harris so far, albeit on limited data.
Basically doing roughly the same as Biden on average, maybe marginally better, but worse in some key states.
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Not enormously positive here either:
The straw to clutch to is lack of data, but I think all these people making out it's a done deal aren't reading the polls.
It's definitely better than having a declining Biden in the race, but that's about it.
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To be fair she hasn’t had a chance to do anything to win people over (or push them away).
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But that doesn’t seem to be what US voters judge their candidates on, debates and speeches seem to be where they win or lose (or certainly where Biden started to lose). Has she been as invisible in the US for the last 4 years as she has been on the international stage?
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Luckily, she only has half of an election campaign for everyone else to find out .
I don't share the optimism beyond the relief of Biden going.
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Fair comment Rick yes optimism at this point is perhaps just wishful thinking.
I think we have to wait and see how she's judged as the candidate rather than as Biden's running mate. There's also the opportunity to for her to get a boost by choosing the right running mate. So it has at least introduced some uncertainty into how the polls might react whereas under Biden it was hard to see him turning things around unless Trump committed some monumental act of self inflicted damage.
[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]0 -
J D Vance might not have been the best choice, now that Harris is who they are running against... two oldish white guys, one of whom is a felon and old, the other who is about as charming as Ron DeSantis.
I'm not yet dissuaded that Biden's timing wasn't entirely accidental. He might not be outwardly as sharp & nimble as his younger self, but he's still got a sharp political mind born of 50 years experience of weird US politics.
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Trump isn’t going to like Harris being the centre of attention. I can see him pulling some kind of stunt to get the media focus back on him, hopefully he’ll do something dumb. Harris can also turn the age card around and point out Trump will be older if he regains the Presidency than Biden was last time. I think he’s going to really go off on one in their first debate along the lines of when hr lost last time.
Again, maybe it’s optimism but coming in late could help with momentum.
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Possibly blind optimism but using a cycling analogy, you don't want to be the front rider only to lose the sprint.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
All too early to tell. There is still no running mate, even.
What this has done, incidentally, has stolen the news cycle from Trump. I think this is a silver lining rather than a cunning long term plan, but even so it seems to mean the Dems are starting well within the margin of error.
It is going to be interesting and as always it's going to be close.
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Yep, I reckon it's going to be a close one.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
JD Vance is 39, that's 20 years younger than Harris ...
He does lack charm though.
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Also, like Trump he is going to be deeply unpopular with women (anti abortion, made comments in the past that women should stay in abusive relationships etc.). They picked a VP based on Biden and now they are left with two candidates who don't sit well with women, running against possibly the first female President.
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Also, the big factor that Trump's entire campaign to date has been based around Biden. He now has a very short window to try and come up with a new strategy. With Biden he could sit back and watch him implode but now he has to actually do something to win key votes. Throw in the fact that he clearly does not like or respect women and will hate being shown up by a woman, and we have a potential route to Trump losing the plot (even more than he already has).
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Hence there will now be a series of spurious legal challenges claiming that campaign donations for Biden Harris don't apply to Harris.
Pointless as she's generated $80M already and can return and reaccept a good deal of the rest before it is spent.
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Vance is claiming she lacks experience. She has 7 years as a DA, 6 years as an AG, 4 years as a Senator and 4 years as Vice President. Vance has 18 months as a Senator. He isn't really on strong ground with that argument.
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I have a feeling that by the time this election is over there will be a whole raft of spurious legal challenges floating around!
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Why are we pretending what Trump and Trump’s mates base anything they say on reality?
Plenty of Republicans referred to a conspiracy theory that made our Hillary Clinton was running a paedo ring, come on.
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I presume that event is based on Trump losing. Can’t see Harris going down that road.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Indeed, they will be issuing legal challenges in virtually every state.
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What evidence is there that Harris can run a good campaign? I remember her run for the gig before ended abruptly and did not go well.
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As yet, there is none. I think running a Presidential campaign is a different prospect though. For a start she will have a massive war chest to call upon, so funding won't be an issue like it was when she ran for the nomination last time. She will also have the entire Democratic party machine behind her. One of the main criticisms last time was her indecisiveness which allowed massive infighting and factions to develop in her team. That is still a risk this time around, but the party elders will likely be on hand to stamp out any trouble. If she gets the VP pick right, this will also help stability and take some of the pressure of of her.
Lots of unknowns at this stage but essentially she will have huge backing and support this time around and lots of people in place to steady the ship if needed. To be fair she also has 4 years experience as VP under her belt as well, which one would assume counts for something.
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Meh, to an extent Vance is unpopular with the type of woman who isn't going to vote Republican anyway, so it doesn't matter. From what I remember of his book, his success is genuinely impressive given his start in life (as opposed to Trump). That doesn't excuse him being a bit of a tit now of course, but it is the type of story that would draw people in.
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TBH I think a mop in a bucket as leader would run Trump close as the system and he particularly is that polarising.
Close doesn't win it though.
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