US Politics / Biden thread
Comments
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I think there are a few things:
a) Harris isn't going to take it for granted in the same way Clinton did. That immediately makes her a lot more likeable.
b) it's a complex game of motivating your base, attracting swing voters and not providing too much extra motivation to the other side's base.
c) This time around Trump is a known entity and has lost at least a little bit of the attraction of being exciting and different. Getting shot at has really helped him, but I don't see him keeping the energy levels this high up until the election.
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I sort of half follow American politics and the main takeaway I have is all normal logical thought I have about candidates absolutely flies out of the window. It defies analysis that makes sense beyond they’re fucking crackers.
So far from what I understand people are fucking furious about inflation and the price of petrol specifically and hold Biden / democrats responsible because they don’t give full throated support to oil drillers and explore alternative energy.
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Americans don't really deal in hypotheticals. Harris on the bottom of the ticket is very different to Harris top of the ticket.
If she is the nominee, her exposure ramps up dramatically and the debate shifts as well. Americans were fixed on Biden vs Trump and previous polling won't realistically reflect how people viewed Harris as a candidate.
I think the debate now shifts back towards big issues like abortion (which will hammer Trump) and away from one of Biden's age.
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I think this will be a big factor. Harris is very astute and will know how to get under his skin. I could be wrong but I think Harris shows him up quite dramatically in a debate.
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I had a debate at the time with a Prof of Sociology from Uni of Chicago before that election. He was convinced (like many) that only white, working class and poorly educated men would vote trump. To quote this Prof "and there aren't enough of them to elect Trump". I pointed out that these men had wives and families who would also likely vote Trump, plus many other groups that would be potential voters. Pollsters and a lot of poltical commentators misjudged the mood in the US.
I get the impression they are misjudging in Trump's favour this time. I don't think Trump is as popular as many think, and a lot of people who couldn't vote Biden are looking for a viable candidate to vote for.
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And towards Trump's age. He's now older than Biden was last time around. Earlier in the campaign, there was a good deal of talk that they were both way too old.
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Just to play devil's advocate, is it remotely possible that this has been Biden's plan all along? Given his record on putting women of colour and other non-white and LGBT people into post, and his political nous, is it conceivable that he chose Harris as VP so he could pull this stunt with the hope that she'll be the first woman POTUS, and one of colour, at that, and knowing that it would rile Trump, who thought he was running against an old white man?
Yeah, I know, probably ridiculous.
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Yeah I dunno. There are so few swing voters.
so many of them are hardened on both sides and the logic of Americans who are swing voters is barely rational, or at least, the information they’re choosing to consume on the topic leads to illogical decision making.
I do think Trump has coincided with an era of different news consumption and that is why someone as obviously awful as trump is so remarkably popular.
i see all this Harris is this or that - I cannot imagine an American swing voter paying any attention to that. It’s just political masturbation
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Trump is capturing a lot of the hispanic vote and more of the black vote than previously so his base is broader than just working class whites. Apparently it was striking how many of the speakers at their congress were not white - presumably an attempt to build on that broadening of their base.
As has been said time will tell how this changes things. I've heard Kamala Harris isn't that popular but I can't pretend to know why or how she's likely to perform as a candidate - her background in law and politics and an academic family suggest she should be a competent debater anyway. No doubt we'll see more of her on our TVs in the coming weeks.
Is she now a shoe in or could we see a contest ?
[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]0 -
True, a much younger candidate against Trump will be a factor. It also removes Trump's key strategy of hammering Biden's age and declining faculties.
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Harris ripped Brett Kavanaugh apart during his Senate Judiciary confirmation hearings. She is very good at debating and asking difficult questions. She isn't as good when scripted and media managed, if she is the nominee, they need to let her get on with it and find her own approach.
I think shoe in, the Dems will likely coalesce around her now. Never say never, but it would be a surprise if there was any meaningful challenge.
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Yes a lot of the campaign funding is for Biden/Harris so I guess it's simpler from that sense too - can't really give it back at this stage
[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]0 -
Maybe something that doesn't prove my hairbrained notion wrong... the fact that it came after the RNC, when they thought they were running against Biden, could be a cunning plan (or more probably a coincidence, I'll admit).
The initial signs are that the Democrats are getting behind Harris in short order... I think even the sceptics can see the advantages in the campaign. If Trump attacks her on her colour or gender (which is likely), it'll boost her standing on both counts with the relevant portions of the electorate. Goodness knows how women or people of colour can contemplate voting for Trump in the first place, mind.
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I read somewhere that less than 4% of Americans are genuinely undecided. Whether this is likely to make a difference in the 'swing' states I have no idea.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
I've said before that since Obama, the candidates for the US Presidential elections have gotten progressively worse. Trump, Clinton, Biden and now perhaps Harris. Each Democrat worse than the last, although Trump was a constant.
For those on here talking about Harris being good in debate or being astute
If you look around you can find her laughing when asked about Ukrainian refugees when she visited Poland. Tulsi Gabbard ripping her a new one during a debate when they sought the Democrat nominee. Her abject failure to deal with the one job Biden specifically gave her, the southern US border. The list is endless, knock yourselves out!
If she is the answer, America is asking the wrong question.
I suppose whether she gets the nomination may come back to money. Will the Dems be faced with returning donations if both Biden AND Harris drop out?
Carry on.
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Yes, it is absolutely tiny % at stake in swing states. in 2020 Biden turned swing states like Arizona by 10,000 voter, so less than 0.5%. This will likely be the defining scenario in November, a few hundred thousand people will likely decide the election outcome.
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It's fanciful to think anyone is going to 'deal' with that southern border, it's a ridiculous notion.
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Indeed, the very idea of either shouldn't leave the mouth of anyone with a brain.
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You can also watch this for an alternative take on Harris. As someone elected DA for San Francisco and then Attorney General for California, you would have to have a fairly sharp legal mind and the ability to formulate coherent arguments.
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Her issue will be dumbing down the message enough to get people to vote for her. I'm not sure being a serious politician is all that helpful.
The genius of populists is that people think they are brilliant minds who have hit upon simple things no one else has though of, where as in reality they are dumb as toast.
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Could well be. One of the key factors will be what exactly sways genuine swing voters. I don't know enough about the demographics in different states to argue what will likely win their vote (although as Biden shaded it last time I would be inclined to think they are more likely to look at competency rather than cult of personality).
One issue the Democrats could face is from actual Democrat voters and how they perceive the nomination process (should Harris be the nominee). I suspect a fair few will want to see some kind of genuine contest and may not like it if Harris is seen as a shoe in. Part of Clinton's problem was that her nomination was seen as a stitch up to keep the old guard of the party in power (coupled with younger voters enthusiasm for Sanders at the time). Harris could be viewed in a similar light and will probably have to take steps to distance herself from Biden to some degree.
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If you're voting on competency, Democrats will lose out because of the problems around inflation and price of petrol.
I do not share your optimism.
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Someone obviously thought she was a decent candidate at one point
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Weird that he supported someone he now claims isn't competent.
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Look at Vance too, he slagged off Trump something chronic in the past.
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