TDF 2024:- Stage 15: Loudenvielle – Plateau de Beille, 197.7km ***Spoilers***
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Meh. JV had the beating of Remco. Why not roll the dice and see if you can spin second into first? They're not much worse off now than if they'd let UAE control things and Pogaçar still shoots unstoppably off the front.
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What else were they supposed to do? They have the second best rider in the race and don't really need to worry about Remco or the others. Vingegaard has no issues riding defensively when necessary to defend his position.
They had to try to test Pogacar on a very hard stage and see if his legs/fuelling hold up. This stage was as good as any to try after a massive workload. The only issue was, that Vingegaard isn't at his very best and Pogacar is. Was 100% worth the shot they took. UAE had practically no team advantage today. All of their domestiques were dropped by VLAB or Jonas.
PTP Champion 2019, 2022 & 20230 -
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Don't think they expected to burn them up so quickly, tbh. Sort of a reverse Ineos thing, who have loads of hardworking super-domestiques to drive everything onwards but nobody to do anything once it gets real.
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I don't think that works on an up and down parcours like today. That only means Pogacar comes even fresher to the final climb. That is already his biggest strength. The final domestique tempo will not tax him enough and will tax him less than current Vingegaard form. He will easily counter it for the same result.
The Pogacar counter isn't a hard final ascent tempo; it's a high tempo the whole day over multiple climbs. That is exactly what they tried to maintain today.
PTP Champion 2019, 2022 & 20231 -
Make it a tussle for 3rd
"If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm0 -
He snuck into that break as a GC man
"If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm0 -
Which was my OP. There are two riders head and shoulders above all the rest.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
My thoughts on team strategy. Does it matter if you are 6th man in a strong train, or 7th rider on the road*?
I don't think so. Who wins from 6th or 7th is down to the strength/enduance/fitness of those two riders.
*Mechanicals aside.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
I don't see why you burn off your riders before the last climb as helping. It was always going to be a showdown on the final climb. Might as well save some of their energy for later in the race and at least have a team that can keep to closer for longer on the climb.
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Riders always say this, it feels like yet another meaningless post race comment.
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The race was on from the very base of the climb, Jorgensen's impressive turn was dropping fringe podium contenders towards the end, then Vingegaard rode as hard as he could to see if he could break Pogacar so it should be no surprise to anyone that they rode up it faster than anyone has previously.
Who knows on the numbers, but that was a stage that was ridden hard all day so it was impressive how they tackled that final climb. Ultimately it was fruitless for VLAB, but they died with their boots on.
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I totally appreciate the tactics lent themselves to a fast time, but still, they were very very fast. Just outright athletic performances, they are remarkable, and so I'm inclined to believe him when he says the numbers are near the best he's done for a third week in a major tour.
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For reference, while it's not clear precisely when Pantani attacked, he was out on his own for about 35 minutes, so it's fair to say he attacked from pretty near the bottom.
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As I recall, Ullrich had punctured in the valley road before the climb, and Pantani waited until he was back in the front group before he attacked, so he definitely didn't go full gas from the bottom like they did yesterday.
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He demolished everyone except Pog, and a hot day is obviously the ideal day to try something to work him over.
It didn't work because he's on another level at the moment, but from Visma it was exactly the right thing to try.
Only one stage left where they go over 2000m, so makes sense for them to give it another go then.
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That clearly explains how Pogacar took 4 minutes out of him then. Like I said, he attacked and was solo for the last 35 minutes or so of his ascent, so that would make only 7 minutes at the bottom for Ullrich to get back on. Even without that, Pogacar would have put minutes into Pantani's time yesterday.
You can see from 2002 to 2015, times are all in and around the 45 minutes mark. Then along comes Pogacar and knocks 6 minutes off that, going 3kmh faster than Froome, Basso, Contador, Armstrong et al.
2024:15,9 km@7,9%---39:50---average speed 23.95 km/h(Tadej Pogacar)-RECORD
2015:15,9 km@7,9%---45:30---average speed 20.97 km/h(Valverde-Froome-Quintana-Pinot-Van Garderen-Contador-Rolland-Nibali-Thomas)
---47:44---average speed 19.99 km/h(Joaquim Rodriguez)
2011:15,9 km@7,9%---46:20---average speed 20.59 km/h(Jelle Vanendert)
2007:15,9 km@7,9%---44:08---average speed 21.62 km/h(Contador-Rasmussen)
2004:15,9 km@7,9%---45:31---average speed 20.96 km/h(Armstrong-Basso)
2002:15,9 km@7,9%---45:55---average speed 20.78 km/h(Lance Armstrong)
1998:15,8 km@7,9%---43:20---average speed 21.88 km/h(Marco Pantani)
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What are you actually going to use those riders for on this last climb? To set a tough pace until you get to the less steep sections that favour Pog? Jonas needed to attack from far out to try and push Pog over the edge on the steep part. Pog was just too good.
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I was agreeing with you, phenomenal performances from Jorgensen, Vingegaard and Pogacar.
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Can someone give me a brief synopsis on this data?
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Synopsis:
Various people have cycled up a mountain at different speeds over a period from 1998-2024, as befits a sport where the aim is to cycle faster than other people.
The one who won yesterday was also the fastest of all the times, even though they weren't actually in a race with riders in the earlier times and the rides weren't standardised for equipment, nutritional science, tactics, weather, road surface and historical context
Pleased I could help :-)
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Cheers
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To add some analysis to that thorough synopsis, you may be wondering what that means for your prejudices. Thankfully it confirms them in all aspects, regardless of what they actually were.
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2015 - first proper attack was with about 4.5km to go, Thomas was basically tempoing to the front after all the attacks in the pissing rain.
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Bit unique to have the first 5km being the Paris Nice winner giving it everything, next 5km last year's TdF winner giving it everything, leading out the current best rider in the world for the last 5km.
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Yes, I saw an interview yesterday in which he said he rode his best race but Pog was in another world. Of course it may be his best 2024 race.
Also an interview with Arnaud Démare when he was on the ground. He was desperate not to arrive over the limit (as at Tignes 3 years ago) and didn't believe the grupetto would make it at 68km so set off on his own before the last but one col only to be recaught and dropped at the foot of the last climb. He realised he'd have to ride at 12-13kph to make the cut but was out of gas making "just" 300 watts.
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