2024 Election thread
Comments
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No, that's because of what you say and how you say it. You present the demographics, which are interesting and becoming more extreme. They your conclusions fail to follow them. For one thing you disregard how many old people there are, and seem to argue that they shouldn't be prioritised because they won't live long.
But UK parliamentary terms are only 5 years.
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It’s not because they won’t live long. It’s because we’ve had 13 years of politics that favours the retired at the expense of those who aren’t and look where it has got us.
A crumbling sclerotic country.
And that’s before we get to the broader trends re housing etc.
I mean, look at America. They can’t get out of the habit of voting in boomers even when they both have one foot in the grave for Christ’s sake.
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As an old person I just think old people voting tory is old news, and I won't be voting tory.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
I don't disagree, in the sense that there is no long term plan from this government, other than try to get elected. But it is a leap to presume that voting intentions of older demographics follows the particular policies that bother you because you think they favour the older demographics.
It is more accurate to point to the bubble of non Tory voters a decade either side of my age. That is what is new, and we don't benefit from the triple lock.
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So I fundamentally disagree and I think the alignment around age is because the reality of boomer policy favours for decades at the expense of the young is now so pronounced it overshadows everything else.
I think it is coincidence that the things retirees typically value are similar to what populists focus on.
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From the article I read the thing he can't afford is a divorce, child maintenance and two lots of school fees. The mortgage seems pretty reasonable.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Do you have polling intentions for the 65s over time? If they haven't changed much I can't see your point.
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Here's one to ponder. A 38 year old who voted for Tony Blair is now a 65 year old, and evidently a tory.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
That's not like comparing high tide and low tide and calculating rainfall at all.
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Merely pointing out how a righteous middle aged man can become a gammon. 😉
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
The bigger issue is that he projects the data onto a whole age demographic when in reality for total planning to vote for the Tories is less than half (60% if you chuck in Reform who are basically the same thing). A large proportion of those will simply be stuck in a rut of ‘that’s how I’ve always voted’.
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But I thought we didn’t get into a rut but changed into a tory when we get to a certain birthday, not sure which birthday. A bit like this….
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Does that mean when I hit 70 I involuntarily become a tory/reform voter?
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Yeah you can dig out the polling stats yourself. I’ve brought plenty of polling evidence for my view.
Happy to be proven wrong if you bring out the stats to show. I’m very confident they have changed materially.
If you do bother try starting at the 87 election where you’ll see it’s more of a cohort effect - Tories were popular with the same people then as now (The 43% of 70+s supporting the Tories is v. close to the 45% of 35-54 year-olds who supported them in 1987)
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As the idiots go live with Bwitish Homes for Bwitish People campaign (as if someone else is issuing all those visas) I find myself strongly agreeing with this.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Why is it a "Deliveroo" visa scandal.
Also, surely care workers are never going to pay back student debt. Certainly not if they are paying foreign student fees?
I'm very confused as to the point here.
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Yeahbut, the tories got 46% of the over 65 votes in 1987 (IPSOS).
Does that mean the older tory vote today is dropping to 43%?
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
I was agreeing with Kate Andrews that someone who goes through an expensive and lengthy process to gain UK citizenship is exactly the kind of person we want and not a scandal.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
It's the MPs point I'm a little confused about.
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I think so is he.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
dogwhistle for the 'kipper vote
my bike - faster than god's and twice as shiny0 -
I found a Univ of bath paper that does seem to show a jump from about 2015 onwards towards older voters favouring the Tories. Ob iously this depends on the overall electron result, but there is a steadily increasing divergence between the voting patterns of over 65s and under 35s.
The Tories must know this. Bht I suppose they've deferred doing anything about it until it is in their overall interests. I think they left it a bit late.
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FWIW I think there may be an issue.
If lots of students are coming over amd dropping out then it's not great. Although usually the anti international student story is that the standards are being dropped to keep them studying.
If they are getting into lots of student debt, then getting min wage jobs in care, that seems to be non ideal.
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If they drop out their visa expires and they have to go home. They won't be getting into student debt because student loans won't be available to them.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
I think of the divergence being due to the young being more susceptible to change. The older tory vote has consistently been in the mid 40% range. Now is as good a time as any for any age group to ditch the tories, but old dogs...
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Indeed, so the divergence is not in the age group RC suggests, but in the younger age groups. Basically, those who first started voting in the aftermath of the gfc.
Hypothesis - they grew up learning that "the market" is not some omnipotent self correcting thing that adjusts according to the collective will of the population, but is instead entirely ambivalent to anyone's welfare. Thus, the Tories free market is best for you messaging is falling on deaf ears.
Idiotic flat earth type rhetoric about not being willing to unduly damage business on the altar of climate change is also tone deaf to younger people.
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They don’t always go home. In my previous life I was referred a Chinese student with mental health issues who was not attending his university course. He didn’t engage and was eventually kicked off the course however he just went underground some where.
Strangely to me at least, he was running his own business as well. A shop selling cheap Chinese ornaments and jewellery.
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Sure, some people break the rules. I'm not sure that validates the MP's claim. I somehow doubt your Chinese ex-student is applying for citizenship
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0
