2024 Election thread

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  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660

    No just stupid actuaries

  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 19,540

    This is quite the New Year's Eve party chit chat! 😉

  • pangolin
    pangolin Posts: 6,603

    Unlike most pensions you're not really "paying in" to anything though, you are just paying the benefits of those currently retired, and crossing your fingers that the same will apply when you retire.

    - Genesis Croix de Fer
    - Dolan Tuono
  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 7,393

    Male life expectancy was 64 when the State Pension was introduced after WWII. It is now around 20 years longer.

    If you are still working and under State Pension age, you still pay NI even if you have more than the 35 qualifying years required for a full State Pension.

    Whilst technically the NI you pay goes to pay the pensions of those drawing the State Pension, you are doing so on the promise that you will also get the state Pension in time. A number of other public sector pension schemes are also un funded.

  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 60,615

    We'll make up for it by sending a load of rich Boomers round to Ricks house after midnight to do some 'first footing' 😇

    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    edited December 2023

    10/10 no disagreement:



    The United Kingdom, much like the patients of Mann's sanatorium, watches life unfold, seemingly powerless to alter its course, consumed from the inside. It’s all still elegant, proper and nice: UK still has a Royal Family to remind them of the good old times. There are numerous other signs of a glorious past: just walking along the streets of Cambridge and Oxford reminds me of that. Go to a Formal Dinner in one of the colleges in these institutions and you’ll see Fellows taking themselves very seriously and reminding everyone of the past glory through countless little rituals that have been preserved through centuries. But peel that sheen away, and the rot is showing: trains do not arrive in time, houses are getting old and you cannot build new ones because of weird regulations, wages are stagnating and so on. Britain, captured by the comfortable illusion of its past, seems to observe the world's relentless march from afar, reluctant to emerge from the cocoon of inaction. In stark contrast, one observes the trajectory of the United States, a nation charting a different course.


    There have been many pieces written on UK’s economic stagnation and people have identified a bunch of material reasons for it: from an ageing population, to limited housing supply and so on. But if you believe at all in the power of the zeitgeist, I’m here to offer another (complementary) diagnosis for what is happening now. The spirit of stagnation is in the air. When I first arrived in Oxford, I was surprised by how many of my (well off) colleagues’ parents were retired in their 50s. There is much less of the hunger for success seen in young Americans: it seems the dream here is in many ways to retreat to a cozy life in your middle age, living off some property investments. And here we turn to the worst tweet of the year, promised in the title of the piece:


    Lee Anderson is a Conservative MP and his tweet captures everything that’s wrong the British zeitgeist. The centre right party in UK celebrates not the possibility of achievement, but rather getting by on a stagnant and insufficient median wage by saving and not complaining. The highest virtue the youth can attain is not bothering the older rent seekers. Unlike their more rambunctious neighbors (the French), the Brits have a “stiff upper lip”- they do not complain and do not show too much emotion. That would be improper. An admirable trait in many ways. But this too has been weaponised against the younger generation, which has been convinced that living in a sort of state of submission is somehow desirable."

  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,097

    Fair, schmair. A universal state pension is not sustainable and needs to change. Have long assumed that I won't be getting it in any meaningful way. Am quite surprised that people still think they are entitled to it just because they pay income tax and NIC. You don't get a refund for the healthcare you don't use, so why should you get a general refund on the tax you've paid? Why should you not be responsible for your own financial security once you stop earning, especially when you are now almost required to pay into a pension? Don't have a problem with a safety net for those who for whatever reason genuinely need it, but people need to stop thinking they are owed an income by the state for up to a third of their life.

    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • pangolin
    pangolin Posts: 6,603

    The problem is the minimum employee pension is what, 3% each for employee and employer? On an average UK salary that is currently a little over £2k per year. That ain't gonna cut it.

    - Genesis Croix de Fer
    - Dolan Tuono
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,097

    Don't see why part of the transition away from a universal state pension would be ratcheting up this minimum contribution to something more workable.

    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • pangolin
    pangolin Posts: 6,603

    Sure, but you need to do that decades before you wind back the state pension. If you're doing it sensibly (big if I admit).

    - Genesis Croix de Fer
    - Dolan Tuono
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,161

    Not sure that helps the younger generation with their struggle to afford mortgage payments, child care etc. if they than have to put more into a pension. Maybe NI could be reduced to cover it as it would be funding less if there was no longer a state pension.

  • secretsqirrel
    secretsqirrel Posts: 2,028

    It will also eat into disposable income of the young families looking for somewhere to live etc. ?

  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660

    It is much more straightforward to just raise the age of the state pension substantially.

    Which I think we all expect to happen.


    IFS does not think means tested is the solution.

  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,097
    edited January 1

    The lack of housebuilding and the consequent inflation of property prices is an entirely different issue. I've already bored everyone enough about the drag that the planning system has on this. Reducing the cost of operating the state pension frees up money for other public spending. Health is the obvious one to address but there's no shortage of options.

    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 16,701
    edited January 1

    So after all of this, you are proposing what is already happening.

    So, moving on... if we accept that the problems with public finances isn't in fact people on small boats, but an ageing population in general poor health to begin with, what's the solution for the NHS? Charging for GP appointments won't make much of a dent, will it....

  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,161

    Sure, I understand those issues more than most but not sure extra funding will help. The problem is spineless politicians that won’t simplify the system no matter how many times they make it an election pledge.

  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,097

    After all what? There are no proposals to wind down the universal state pension. There are very gentle steps to encourage people to pay into workplace pensions, which have been around for the last decade and a half. If health is the thing that is knocking a big hole in national productivity and our health expenditure is slightly below our peers that seems like an obvious priority to redirect public spending .

    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 16,701

    IFS said just increase the age at which it starts. Which is already happening.

  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660

    I don’t think they are necessarily correct fwiw. But if we’re talking solutions their opinion is worth noting.

    How do we expect to handle an aging population? And why are those most in need of care and healthcare (due to aging) most against importing the necessary workers needed to support said care/healthcare.

  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 7,393

    Workplace pensions have not been around for a decade and a half. The first schemes were introduced in October 2012 and were phased in over 6 years. They have been a huge success after the joke that was stakeholder (introduced in 2001 post Brown's £5bn pa raid on UK pension schemes). Contribution rates are likely to be increased in the future. 8% is a decent start from a situation where there was no compulsion.

    Of course employers have been free to offer pension contributions and or schemes to their employees for decades.

  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 26,974

    The reason people think they are owed a pension because they pay N.I. is that is a justification for the tax.

    Any government can remove that justification and maintain current N.I. levels if they wish but I doubt it would poll well, even if people have less expectation of receiving the state pension.

    They could propose stopping new state pensions from a set date in return for a lower N.I. rate. Wasn't that tried before where you could opt out? Nobody in their right mind would choose to do that so it would have to be enforced. Imagine the Millenial outrage!

    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • pangolin
    pangolin Posts: 6,603

    You need to pick a younger generation, I'm a millennial and I'm already 2/3 of the way to 30 qualifying years of contributions.

    - Genesis Croix de Fer
    - Dolan Tuono
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 26,974

    Possibly, probably even.

    How outraged would you be if they made the cut-off 2030? Extrapolate that forward. It will happen at one point.

    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • pangolin
    pangolin Posts: 6,603
    - Genesis Croix de Fer
    - Dolan Tuono
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 26,974
    edited January 1

    Starting collecting the state pension.

    Aren't people thinking the state pension is coming to an end at some point as it is unaffordable?

    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660

    It is already unaffordable. They’re just taxing the sh!t out of working people to pay for it.

  • pangolin
    pangolin Posts: 6,603

    So when you say "it will happen at some point" the "it" is a hard cutoff with no taper of NI contributions up to that point? I disagree.

    I don't think I'd be outraged, I am not planning on relying on it. I'd give more serious thought to leaving the country.

    - Genesis Croix de Fer
    - Dolan Tuono
  • Jezyboy
    Jezyboy Posts: 3,537

    I vaguely recall an argument that the state pension would be more affordable in a few years, as boomers are a particularly large cohort (although this might be bollocks).

    Either way I do struggle to see the pension being dropped completely.

  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,660

    I think there are a fair few millennials who are so jaded that they think theel state pension will be "as good as" worthless by the time they retire. Not least because the age they can start claiming it will go up and up and up...

    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver