Pog v Vin, who win?

24

Comments

  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 27,226

    If Vingegaard is not on top form and hoping to ride into form, there's a couple of opportunities to seriously test him in the first 4 stages.

  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 7,145

    Van Baarle and Kruijswijk both out of the Tour now so 2 more important Visma domestiques out.

    Pogi's voodoo doll is working overtime!

  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 8,854

    Yes the pundits on The Move podcast were of the opinion Pog should try and distance Ving in the first week in case he does ride into form.

    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 13,978

    Interestingly, in last year's edition Jonas tempted Pog into burning matches in the first week that he paid for badly in the third. If I was Vingegaard I'd play up any first week weakness in the hope that it would work like that again (assuming there's some actual form there and he's not just broken)

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  • andyp
    andyp Posts: 10,261

    But the situation was reversed last year, Pogacar's preparation was compromised by the injuries he sustained at Liege. His enforced absence from training hampered his endurance in that third week. I can't see how Vingegaard's injuries, which were more severe, haven't had exactly the same outcome on his durability in the final week.

  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 13,978

    Visma believe third week vulnerability/being tempted to race too much is a general weakness for Pog, not a product of poor form from injury coming into the tour. They've exploited this in both of Jonas's wins

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  • super_davo
    super_davo Posts: 1,194

    Yeah but they still need to tempt him to race too much, which they will struggle to do with half a team and half a Jonas.

  • roscoe
    roscoe Posts: 482

    I’m sure they’ll still have a full team there.

    They’ll be hoping for some very hot days too, Pog apparently doesnt like it too hot.

  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 7,145

    Last year was very different, with Pog coming in well under cooked. He was always likely to fade in the third week.

    This year, Vinegarman has had even worse injuries, was unable to do any training for a longer period. If he arrives in winning form then visma have some miracle medicines. Jonas is likely to improve as the tour progresses, but he could (and given his injuries should) be out of contention by the end of week one.

  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 74,417
    edited June 7

    Is riding into form even a thing anymore?


    I thought in the modern age it was more you look like you’re riding into form if you have come in in such good form that it is noticed in week 3.


    Pog like to spend his energy more recklessly than Vingers and I think Vingers recovers better in the heat and that adds up by the final week.

  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 13,978

    Riding into form = timing your peak for week 3.

    I've always assumed it was about coming in with a touch more body fat than ideal weight and burning it off over two weeks - leaving you with better reserves when you hit week 3, but I'm no performance expert.

    Can't remember where I read it, but there was an article the claimed Jonas's nutrition and performance was so dialed in that he had a scheduled weight drop at the end of week 2.

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  • wakemalcolm
    wakemalcolm Posts: 748

    That's nothing: I have a scheduled weight drop at 8:23 each morning.

    ================================
    Cake is just weakness entering the body
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 8,854


    Why was Pog likely to fade due to lack of prep but Ving is likely to get better because he's coming in lacking prep ?

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  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 42,099
    edited June 8

    Visma should probably get behind Jorgensen instead (I assume he’s riding?).

  • JimD666
    JimD666 Posts: 2,163
    edited June 8

    There’s three weeks yet. Plenty of time for him to fall off and break something…..

    Not going to believe Vin is riding until he actually turns up on the start line

  • andyp
    andyp Posts: 10,261

    Kuss looks way off the pace at the Dauphine. Is he sick?

  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 13,978
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  • takethehighroad
    takethehighroad Posts: 6,747

    Was thinking about this while cycling to work this morning.

    I think on peak form, Vingegaard edges it over 3 weeks, but on current form (as we know it) you would say Pog will be favourite.

    There was a suggestion Roglic could challenge Pog but I just don't see it, and Remco seems to be another step down from Primoz, although about a similar level at their best.

    On current form I would say it goes

    Tier 1a - Pog

    Tier 1b - Jonas

    Tier 2a - Rog

    Tier 2b - Remco

  • daniel_b
    daniel_b Posts: 11,746

    Correct me if I am wrong, but Jonas hasn't raced since the crash has he?

    His form is a total unknown I would have thought.

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  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 13,978

    Yes, that's the main assumption here. Jonas's form could be anywhere from 1a+ to z- (not starting), we just don't know.

    Remco struggled badly in the Dauphiné but said he regarded it as training, Roglic was the clear best rider but also got dropped by Jorgensen and others on the final stage

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  • takethehighroad
    takethehighroad Posts: 6,747

    We have to make assumptions about Jonas' form, but even though VLAB say he won't race if he's not "100%" you would imagine he will start if they think he can win.

    I just think neither Remco nor Roglic get anywhere near Jonas or Pog this year, given any assumptions we have to make about either of their respective form

  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 26,431
    edited June 12

    My current take.

    Pog - Tired after the Giro? Never went in the red, will recover easily. Favourite.

    Vingegaard - In recovery. Even if fully recovered has no race training. Needs Pog to have at least one really bad day.

    Roglic - On the wane.

    Remco - Needs a relatively "easy" parcourse to beat the other three.

    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • takethehighroad
    takethehighroad Posts: 6,747

    My thoughts (pretty much) exactly. Although I'm not sure Roglic is "on the wane", more he came into the Dauphine relatively fresh and suffered relative to the others on the last day

  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 26,431
    edited June 12

    Primoz is now 34. Sure, he still has a win or two in him, but not against the current crop of top youngsters in full fitness.

    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 8,854

    I heard some power estimates for Roglic that he was sustaining sort of 6.5ish w/kg for 20 minutes peak at the Dauphine while Pog was close to 7w/kg for similar durations at the Giro.

    With the caveat that the numbers for Roglic are an estimate and I assume the same for Pog (they didn't state) that does reinforce that even Roglic's good days at the Dauphine were not good enough.

    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • stage_hunter
    stage_hunter Posts: 263

    Someone up there has said that it might be a very open tour with Vingegaard struggling, Pog tired, Remco & Rog not quite there…

    I think that’s right. If I was UAE, I would protecting Yates or Ayuso in addition to Pog.

    I think Pog, but no one has the double, clean, for a long time.

  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 26,431
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.