2024 Election thread

MidlandsGrimpeur2

I can't see the hard left taking back any power within Labour. They had their 15mins with Corbyn and were found out for being the loonies they are.

Maybe being naive but I think Momentum and that whole bunch are done.

pblakeney

MidlandsGrimpeur2 said:

I can't see the hard left taking back any power within Labour. They had their 15mins with Corbyn and were found out for being the loonies they are.

Maybe being naive but I think Momentum and that whole bunch are done.

Have they lost their momentum? 😉

mully79

The lesson from Wales is that if you vote for a labour party with a pledge you disagree with they will force it through no matter the opposition.

The lesson from England is that if you vote for a conservative party with a pledge you agree with then they will simply do a u-turn.

rick_chasey

Look Brexit cleared out the centrists and handed the reigns to the nutters and it’s been carnage since.

An embarrassing loss will clear out the nutters and the Tories can rebuild as a more sensible party again.

Labour are a cycle ahead of that process.

MidlandsGrimpeur2

That one made me chuckle PB 😂

tailwindhome

So, when's the election going to be?

pblakeney

tailwindhome said:

So, when's the election going to be?

Political pundits seem to think end of October/start of November.
I'm not that optimistic.

briantrumpet

pblakeney said:

tailwindhome said:

So, when's the election going to be?

Political pundits seem to think end of October/start of November.
I'm not that optimistic.

I wouldn't mind if their trolling was even any good (clever or funny), but the whole thing is just lame, which is probably not surprising given the intellectual paucity in the Cabinet. It's like a poor comedian who's got to go on to the end of his time slot, having lost the audience, half of whom have already gone to the bar or for a plss.

Stevo_666

webboo said:

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

Stevo_666 said:

The only way to be sure of stopping the Labour party leftie loons from emerging from under their rocks is not to vote Labour in. I did my bit to make Labour unelectable back in 2015 by helping to put Jezza in charge but good things don't always last unless we stay vigilant

I’d take some heart. You’re no longer a party member, and your choice of candidate and favourite subject of ridicule have both been expelled.

I'm proud to say I played my part.

The lady is not for turning.🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

No turning needed - the damage has already been done

rick_chasey

Lol American police can't stop shooting people.

UK police can't find anyone to hold a gun.

kingstongraham

super_davo said:

Number one thing has to be getting the Tories out, so please check your postcode on https://tacticalvote.co.uk/ and vote accordingly.

For me the best possible outcome would be a Labour government alongside a resurgence of the Lib Dems; I think some of the wilder voices that pushed Labour to the left under Corbyn and the Tories to become UKIPlite can be countered with a viable centre party. And this will be a likely outcome of widespread adoption of tactical voting.

I assume that website is going to be updated sometime soon, as it seems to pretend the 2019 election never happened.

My constituency feels like a relatively safe "not Conservative" now, where it was very marginal in 2017 ( as in a Conservative win by 45 votes).

surrey_commuter

Pross said:

pblakeney said:

Another thing that is probably just me....
Assuming it is a Labour leadership then I want a strong tory opposition.

It’s a tough one, it needs the right wing to be decimated so they can reform as a centrist Party. A strong opposition would imply that not happening.

If they get decimated they will have a party and celebrate another term in Govt (maybe)

The safest seats tend to be held by the far right nutter dinosaurs so the worse it gets the more extreme the party will become.

The line up of candidates would in all likelihood include Boris, Truss and JRM

rjsterry

surrey_commuter said:

Pross said:

pblakeney said:

Another thing that is probably just me....
Assuming it is a Labour leadership then I want a strong tory opposition.

It’s a tough one, it needs the right wing to be decimated so they can reform as a centrist Party. A strong opposition would imply that not happening.

If they get decimated they will have a party and celebrate another term in Govt (maybe)

The safest seats tend to be held by the far right nutter dinosaurs so the worse it gets the more extreme the party will become.

The line up of candidates would in all likelihood include Boris, Truss and JRM

Rees Mogg is currently polling as a Con/LD marginal. Truss might hang on but Johnson doesn't have a seat yet.

First.Aspect

Johnson won't stand. JRMs achievements will merit a peerage. He's been acting like royalty for some time, so it's a reasonable stepping stone for him.

rick_chasey

First.Aspect said:

Johnson won't stand. JRMs achievements will merit a peerage. He's been acting like royalty for some time, so it's a reasonable stepping stone for him.

By no means JRM’s biggest fan but calling him a nonce is a bit steep.

Pross

rjsterry said:

surrey_commuter said:

Pross said:

pblakeney said:

Another thing that is probably just me....
Assuming it is a Labour leadership then I want a strong tory opposition.

It’s a tough one, it needs the right wing to be decimated so they can reform as a centrist Party. A strong opposition would imply that not happening.

If they get decimated they will have a party and celebrate another term in Govt (maybe)

The safest seats tend to be held by the far right nutter dinosaurs so the worse it gets the more extreme the party will become.

The line up of candidates would in all likelihood include Boris, Truss and JRM

Rees Mogg is currently polling as a Con/LD marginal. Truss might hang on but Johnson doesn't have a seat yet.

Francois has a majority of 31,000, how can that many people think he is worthy of a vote no matter which Party he represents? He's a complete fuckwit. Braverman has a majority of over 26,000 - same question / statement applies.

First.Aspect

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

Johnson won't stand. JRMs achievements will merit a peerage. He's been acting like royalty for some time, so it's a reasonable stepping stone for him.

By no means JRM’s biggest fan but calling him a nonce is a bit steep.

Oof.

Are we still allowed to use that term, or has it been cancelled?

surrey_commuter

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

Johnson won't stand. JRMs achievements will merit a peerage. He's been acting like royalty for some time, so it's a reasonable stepping stone for him.

By no means JRM’s biggest fan but calling him a nonce is a bit steep.

Oof.

Are we still allowed to use that term, or has it been cancelled?

I only found out he is the Earl of Inverness when somebody sent me a joke about him being the Loch Ness Noncer (Andrew not JRM)

rick_chasey

Ok so what do voters apparently think is most important?

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/wellbeing/bulletins/publicopinionsandsocialtrendsgreatbritain/11to22january2023#:~:text=living (93%)-,the NHS (89%),and the environment (59%)


the cost of living (93%)
the NHS (89%)
the economy (76%)
climate change and the environment (59%)
Crime (50%)
Industrial action (45%)

So err, how are the Tories gonna make an inroads on any of those?

kingstongraham

Feels like they're currently cancelling everything so they can work out how to give a pre election income tax cut without the OBR giving a negative outlook.

pangolin

kingstongraham said:

Feels like they're currently cancelling everything so they can work out how to give a pre election income tax cut without the OBR giving a negative outlook.

Would be nice if they put it in a manifesto and let us vote on it first rather than just flailing around now.

First.Aspect

rick_chasey said:

Ok so what do voters apparently think is most important?

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/wellbeing/bulletins/publicopinionsandsocialtrendsgreatbritain/11to22january2023#:~:text=living (93%)-,the NHS (89%),and the environment (59%)


the cost of living (93%)
the NHS (89%)
the economy (76%)
climate change and the environment (59%)
Crime (50%)
Industrial action (45%)

So err, how are the Tories gonna make an inroads on any of those?

They are bringing inflation down, didn't you know?

rick_chasey

Apparently there's been a rebellion in the Lib Dem conference and they reinstated a national housing target which is now higher than Labour's.

rjsterry

rick_chasey said:

Apparently there's been a rebellion in the Lib Dem conference and they reinstated a national housing target which is now higher than Labour's.

Some hope then. The current leadership seem to have lost their money minds almost as much as the Tories.

shirley_basso

180k new starts this year.

Next year forecast 120-160k (depending who you speak to). The 120k comes from the key lobbying body who are using that figure to get the gov't to take action

Likely to return to 180k in 2025 and beyond.

Demand still 300k.

Last new starts housebuilding peak was 2007

rick_chasey

rjsterry said:

rick_chasey said:

Apparently there's been a rebellion in the Lib Dem conference and they reinstated a national housing target which is now higher than Labour's.

Some hope then. The current leadership seem to have lost their money minds almost as much as the Tories.

Give you an indication of the strength of the leadership (i.e. not even second toughest in the infants)

rjsterry

rick_chasey said:

rjsterry said:

rick_chasey said:

Apparently there's been a rebellion in the Lib Dem conference and they reinstated a national housing target which is now higher than Labour's.

Some hope then. The current leadership seem to have lost their money minds almost as much as the Tories.

Give you an indication of the strength of the leadership (i.e. not even second toughest in the infants)

Davey seems pleasant enough, but might as well not be there for all the difference he makes.

Jezyboy

Why would anyone with political ambition join the lib Dems post coalition?

Their USP as basically THE third party that got media time and a few seats seems to have been eroded by a media that is happy to give more time to other third parties and obviously, they've lost tons of seats.

This does leave room for a different middle-y type party, but remember Change UK...thought not.

tailwindhome

Said it before and I'll say it again.
For the the 100 year history of the Irish state either Fine Gael or Fianna Fail have been in power. In the last election they had to form a coalition to keep Sinn Fein out. They are now, even combined, behind on the opinion polls

The biggest issue is housing. An entire generation has been locked out of the housing market both buying and renting

The point?

It would be foolish of either Labour or Conservative to think that this can only happen in Ireland, and that if they don't do something to sort out the UK housing market it won't happen to them.

They may find that Corbyn was a decade early.

tailwindhome

pblakeney said:

tailwindhome said:

So, when's the election going to be?

Political pundits seem to think end of October/start of November.
I'm not that optimistic.

I thought it was nuts to start with, but I'm starting to think he may go in the spring