Chances of Pogacar winning this Tour

bm5

Jonas only misses white by 21 days. He's 26 on December 10th.

ddraver

tailwindhome said:

It's done. He might even lose time in the TT

It totally wouldn't surprise me if he rode round on one wheel or swiping beers front the roadside

(Although I suspect he doesn't drink beer)

andyrac

Like the other great French race, Le Mans, it's never over until it's over....Toyota in 2016 springs to mind.
However, it would requite something astonishing.....

Pross

bm5 said:

Jonas only misses white by 21 days. He's 26 on December 10th.

Looks about 40 at times though. Those early mornings at the fish market took their toll.

DeVlaeminck

I guess one day if the Tour lasts long enough a yellow jersey will crash out on the last day - hopefully not soon though.

N0bodyOfTheGoat

Last chance saloon tomorrow, a breakaway in Paris.

davidof

DeVlaeminck said:

I guess one day if the Tour lasts long enough a yellow jersey will crash out on the last day - hopefully not soon though.

if it last long enough all manner of things are possible including the race leader getting lost in the desert on the way to Paris

gsk82

How many yellow jerseys do we now think he'll win? I guess not 6 or 8 anymore.

tailwindhome

5 or 6

The thing is, there's an 18 yo no ones heard of yet standing between Pog and the 7th.

m.r.m.

So what does Pogacar learn from this?

Was the only problem that he got 1-2 countered by Roglic (who he could have kept on a leash) and Vingegaard on stage 11, while also trying to lift the pace on the Galibier himself for which he then payed for massively on the Granon?

Is there blame to be placed on UAE for not taking Almeida for example to counter some of JV's super domestiques?

Based off of numbers Pogacar tends to only be stronger than Vingegaard on sub 30 min. efforts. Above 30 min. Vingegaard is equal and sometimes even stronger. It's the physiological flip side to Pogacar being far superior in the sprints.

Should Pogacar have laid off trying to sprint for 1-2 seconds at every other stage and tried to conserve energy or would that have ultimately made no difference?

RichN95.

m.r.m. said:

So what does Pogacar learn from this?

Was the only problem that he got 1-2 countered by Roglic (who he could have kept on a leash) and Vingegaard on stage 11, while also trying to lift the pace on the Galibier himself for which he then payed for massively on the Granon?

When faced with a team with two genuine contenders I think you have to be aggressive early on to force them into choosing one. Sky were always good at reducing the contenders to a manageable small number early on.

Roglic had crashed by then hadn't he? He should have let him go when he attacked and just rode back to him steadily, or left him with an advantage, almost forcing Jumbo to back their weaker horse.

It's easier in retrospect though

m.r.m.

That is what I meant by keeping Roglic on a leash instead of trying to snap closing him.

RichN95.

m.r.m. said:

That is what I meant by keeping Roglic on a leash instead of trying to snap closing him.

I know. I'm agreeing with you

m.r.m.

I'm just not sure that that is the only mistake. Based off of the stuff I've been able to catch up on, I'm not sure Vingegaard was ever in much trouble at all. Doesn't seem like he was ever pushed to the brink. Rather kept control mostly (with great help from the team) and struck when it mattered most.

RichN95.

m.r.m. said:

I'm just not sure that that is the only mistake. Based off of the stuff I've been able to catch up on, I'm not sure Vingegaard was ever in much trouble at all. Doesn't seem like he was ever pushed to the brink. Rather kept control mostly (with great help from the team) and struck when it mattered most.

There were the days when he was sprinting for minor places as well. I think there was a lot of believing he was invulnerable.
Maybe not going full gas in February might be an idea too.

No_Ta_Doctor

I think there are two questions being asked here.
One is "could Pog have raced with a different strategy /tactics?". I think we're all agreed he made a mistake chasing Roglic, but he was baited into that. I also think that if he'd just reeled him in slowly then Vingegaard would have attacked and dropped him anyway - though maybe not by the 3minutes. And if there'd been little real situation change in the GC, they still had the Alpe the next day.

Pogacar could probably have reserved his efforts a little earlier in the race, and maybe used them better later as well, but I doubt this had much overall effect - Vingegaard was making the same efforts in order to match him.

The other question is "could his season prep have put him in a better place going into the Tour?"
That's probably the crucial one, looking at next year. On the form they showed this year I don't think there's all that much Pogacar could do to win. Vingegaard had the bettering of him in both the high mountains and the TT.

DeVlaeminck

I don't know - genuinely don't know - if Vingegaard was stronger than Pogacar. Pogacar had to do quite a lot that Vingegaard didn't and they were close enough that that could have been the difference.

For me the difference was the team and the tactics. UAE could have ridden more conservatively at times, save energy, hand the jersey over and *maybe* have enough left on the Galibier stage to control Jumbo's attacks rather than let Pogacar control them.

Then his chasing of Roglic - when if he'd just stuck to Vingegaard's wheel until his team got back to him - could have seen him finishing with Vingegaard. It was a difficult call as Roglic and even Thomas may have taken time but with hindsight those two would not have been able to hold any gains they made.

Pross

RichN95. said:

m.r.m. said:

I'm just not sure that that is the only mistake. Based off of the stuff I've been able to catch up on, I'm not sure Vingegaard was ever in much trouble at all. Doesn't seem like he was ever pushed to the brink. Rather kept control mostly (with great help from the team) and struck when it mattered most.

There were the days when he was sprinting for minor places as well. I think there was a lot of believing he was invulnerable.
Maybe not going full gas in February might be an idea too.

But one of the reasons Pogacar is popular is because he was prepared to do those other races and take them seriously. Unfortunately the Tour result might mean riders go back to the thinking of the last 30 years that they have to pick their main target and everything else is training towards that which would be a shame.

Lulu93

Do we think that Pogi could win next year if there is no significant team change for either Jumbo-Visma or UAE? Or could team strategy and preparation make enough of a difference for him? It so often felt like Pogi was racing alone, when Vingegaard just had the most formidable back up with the likes of Kuss/ Van Aert.
I get that Pogi made some mistakes but I don't think that's just his failing - it strikes me as more of a team failing because he ended up isolated and sort of forced into those decisions.

Lulu93

No_Ta_Doctor said:

I think there are two questions being asked here.
One is "could Pog have raced with a different strategy /tactics?". I think we're all agreed he made a mistake chasing Roglic, but he was baited into that. I also think that if he'd just reeled him in slowly then Vingegaard would have attacked and dropped him anyway - though maybe not by the 3minutes. And if there'd been little real situation change in the GC, they still had the Alpe the next day.

Pogacar could probably have reserved his efforts a little earlier in the race, and maybe used them better later as well, but I doubt this had much overall effect - Vingegaard was making the same efforts in order to match him.

The other question is "could his season prep have put him in a better place going into the Tour?"
That's probably the crucial one, looking at next year. On the form they showed this year I don't think there's all that much Pogacar could do to win. Vingegaard had the bettering of him in both the high mountains and the TT.

I agree about the high mountains, but the TT is up for debate. Pogi was quicker in the first one, Vingegaard in the second. But I don't know that Pogi was going all out on stage 20 - if he'd been riding for the win, I'd have put money on him being faster.

Ultimately it was those two mountain stages that really separated them. Part strategy, part team strength and part Jonas just being stronger on the climb. I don't know if Pogi can counter that but I genuinely can't wait to find out!

Dorset_Boy

Lulu93 said:

Do we think that Pogi could win next year if there is no significant team change for either Jumbo-Visma or UAE? Or could team strategy and preparation make enough of a difference for him? It so often felt like Pogi was racing alone, when Vingegaard just had the most formidable back up with the likes of Kuss/ Van Aert.
I get that Pogi made some mistakes but I don't think that's just his failing - it strikes me as more of a team failing because he ended up isolated and sort of forced into those decisions.

UAE lost their climbing domestiques early on to illness / injury, leaving Pogacar far more isolated than they planned.
Jumbo's tactic of putting Wout up the road, and his other worldly recovery ability meant that other climbing domestiques weren't needed for the whole stage - look at Kuss pulling over as soon at the bridge to Wout was made.
UAE and the others will be wiser to that tactic next time.

bobmcstuff

Pross said:

RichN95. said:

m.r.m. said:

I'm just not sure that that is the only mistake. Based off of the stuff I've been able to catch up on, I'm not sure Vingegaard was ever in much trouble at all. Doesn't seem like he was ever pushed to the brink. Rather kept control mostly (with great help from the team) and struck when it mattered most.

There were the days when he was sprinting for minor places as well. I think there was a lot of believing he was invulnerable.
Maybe not going full gas in February might be an idea too.

But one of the reasons Pogacar is popular is because he was prepared to do those other races and take them seriously. Unfortunately the Tour result might mean riders go back to the thinking of the last 30 years that they have to pick their main target and everything else is training towards that which would be a shame.

I mean, there's a reason why athletes periodise their training and it's that it works. I don't really think it's unfortunate, it's just a fact.

I suppose riders always did it to some extent (no big ring after Lombardia etc.).

RichN95.

Pross said:

RichN95. said:

m.r.m. said:

I'm just not sure that that is the only mistake. Based off of the stuff I've been able to catch up on, I'm not sure Vingegaard was ever in much trouble at all. Doesn't seem like he was ever pushed to the brink. Rather kept control mostly (with great help from the team) and struck when it mattered most.

There were the days when he was sprinting for minor places as well. I think there was a lot of believing he was invulnerable.
Maybe not going full gas in February might be an idea too.

But one of the reasons Pogacar is popular is because he was prepared to do those other races and take them seriously. Unfortunately the Tour result might mean riders go back to the thinking of the last 30 years that they have to pick their main target and everything else is training towards that which would be a shame.

But those races aren't in February. I realise that the UAE Tour is important to the sponsor, but he'd be better of going for PR, meeting all the right people and ride for a temmate. Similarly if he wants to do some spring classics, then in the two and half months between them and the Tour he needs to do something a little more substantial than the Tour of Slovenia.

Pross

RichN95. said:

Pross said:

RichN95. said:

m.r.m. said:

I'm just not sure that that is the only mistake. Based off of the stuff I've been able to catch up on, I'm not sure Vingegaard was ever in much trouble at all. Doesn't seem like he was ever pushed to the brink. Rather kept control mostly (with great help from the team) and struck when it mattered most.

There were the days when he was sprinting for minor places as well. I think there was a lot of believing he was invulnerable.
Maybe not going full gas in February might be an idea too.

But one of the reasons Pogacar is popular is because he was prepared to do those other races and take them seriously. Unfortunately the Tour result might mean riders go back to the thinking of the last 30 years that they have to pick their main target and everything else is training towards that which would be a shame.

But those races aren't in February. I realise that the UAE Tour is important to the sponsor, but he'd be better of going for PR, meeting all the right people and ride for a temmate. Similarly if he wants to do some spring classics, then in the two and half months between them and the Tour he needs to do something a little more substantial than the Tour of Slovenia.

But in general the reaction to him seems to have been 'it's great to see him turn up and race to win'. Given he had already won two Tours at the age of 22 I can understand him possibly getting a bit over-confident and not be as focussed purely on one or two races. You only have to look on these pages in the first week and very few saw him being realistically challenged. Ultimately his loss came down to one bad day where a combination of naivety, lack of team support and, possibly, not feeding correctly meant he lost a load of time. JV played their two cards very well and managed to just hold on the bluff with Roglic's condition long enough to make it count.

jimmythecuckoo

I have been keeping my head down based on my rest day 2 assessment !