Chances of Pogacar winning this Tour
![DeVlaeminck](https://forum.bikeradar.com/uploads/userpics/BS01C9Y3F6MX/nGCQ5W5DAHOD5.jpeg)
DeVlaeminck
Posts: 9,001
in Pro race
[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
0
Comments
-
Now the dust has settled on the last 2 days I just can't see him getting the time back - I think it'll take a crash or some other misfortune for Vingegaard to lose 2 minutes - hope I'm wrong.[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]0
-
The extreme heatwave arriving over the weekend could play havok with GC, different heat tolerances and did I hear the stages can be shortened in such conditions?================
2020 Voodoo Marasa
2017 Cube Attain GTC Pro Disc 2016
2016 Voodoo Wazoo0 -
There's really only one mountain stage that I see as a risk for Vingegaard having a bad day so chances are fairly limited.0
-
Nobody thinking that after yesterday, the odds may have changed slightly?"Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.0
-
blazing_saddles said:
Nobody thinking that after yesterday, the odds may have changed slightly?
He was 3/1 with most bookies. He's now 2/1 with most of them.Twitter: @RichN950 -
I think Vingegaard must be favourite, but there's still plenty of miles and stages to go - so anything can happen.0
-
Well, this proves the odds have changed slightly, but I am not sure that I follow their logic.RichN95. said:blazing_saddles said:Nobody thinking that after yesterday, the odds may have changed slightly?
He was 3/1 with most bookies. He's now 2/1 with most of them."Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.0 -
There's no obvious way for Pogacar to win though. Vingegaard is not bad at TTs, so could lose up to a min there. That means that Pogacar will need to find more than a minute elsewhere.0
-
blazing_saddles said:
Well, this proves the odds have changed slightly, but I am not sure that I follow their logic.RichN95. said:blazing_saddles said:Nobody thinking that after yesterday, the odds may have changed slightly?
He was 3/1 with most bookies. He's now 2/1 with most of them.
Bookies don't sit around thinking logically about the state of the race. The prices move due to people betting. If people bet more money, the price shortens, if they bet less it lengthens. It will mostly be automated.Twitter: @RichN951 -
Their logic is maths - they set odds so they don't lose money whatever happens. If the punters move to Pog they have to adjust their odds in response to that. They are not predicting the outcome; neither are a lot of punters - they are looking for a bet where the risk of losing the stake are outweighed by the odds.blazing_saddles said:
Well, this proves the odds have changed slightly, but I am not sure that I follow their logic.RichN95. said:blazing_saddles said:Nobody thinking that after yesterday, the odds may have changed slightly?
He was 3/1 with most bookies. He's now 2/1 with most of them.
You can't even claim it is the "wisdom of crowds". Obviously 3:1 during the race yesterday looked quite tempting after the crashes and the odds moved in response to bets coming in.
Obviously there is more than one bookmaker so they also operate in a competitive market.BASI Nordic Ski Instructor
Instagramme0 -
It's probably moved a bit with kruiswijk and roglic going, but it's only made things a bit more even between them. The one with a 2 minute lead obviously still has to be strong favourite.
Possible, but I wouldn't put it higher than 20% - it would be a phenomenal week if he pulled it off.0 -
I wonder what odds you could get on Pog winning all four jerseys, could only take a crash/covid positive from WVA to open yellow and green up......0
-
I think he is still the man most likely.
Team wise they are pretty equal now, but he has the previous on whacking Jumbo in a late time trial.0 -
Brave choice Jimmy - agree the withdrawals have shifted the balance somewhat but I'd still see it as a shock on a par with any performance I can remember (with a disclaimer my memory for races isn't that good)[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]0
-
I love an alternate view !
For me he will gain time at some point this week in the mountains and be in touching distance for the tt at the weekend.
It should make for a brilliant week of racing, I hope.0 -
I think the brilliant thing is he's not going to go home wondering.jimmythecuckoo said:I love an alternate view !
For me he will gain time at some point this week in the mountains and be in touching distance for the tt at the weekend.
It should make for a brilliant week of racing, I hope.Warning No formatter is installed for the format1 -
All three pundits on ITV's rest day show went for Pog to win0
-
Vingeboy it is then !Pross said:All three pundits on ITV's rest day show went for Pog to win
BASI Nordic Ski Instructor
Instagramme2 -
not giving up yet !!0
-
Think Pog has three hopes left:
1: Crosswinds tomorrow with JV missing the splits and JV having a bad day
2: JV parks his TT bike in the barriers on Saturday
3: No0 -
Covid ?[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]0
-
I was thinking about this theoretical yesterday. Normally the GC leader isn't challenged on the Paris stage. Are they not going to test the leader (or anyone else) before the stage starts? Simply say they aren't infectious if they test positive (and then myseriously many riders who congratulate the winner test positive next week)? Hand the yellow jersey to the highest place GC rider not positive before Sunday?DeVlaeminck said:Covid ?
================
2020 Voodoo Marasa
2017 Cube Attain GTC Pro Disc 2016
2016 Voodoo Wazoo0 -
Some teams are only testing if there are symptoms. J-V have been testing routinely. They might just skip it on Saturday evening and Sunday morning, I reckonWarning No formatter is installed for the format0
-
Covid is probably the likeliest way for Pogaçar to win. I can't see anyone happy with that. It's worse than a disqualification from a doping offense, because you can't even tell yourself you deserve it because the other guy got caught cheating.0
-
It's done. He might even lose time in the TT“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0
-
its small, tiny, tiny s-m-all consoltionbbutmost deserved winner of the white jersey there..
The camera down the willy isn't anything like as bad as it sounds.
0