Chances of Pogacar winning this Tour

DeVlaeminck
DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,106
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  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,106
    Now the dust has settled on the last 2 days I just can't see him getting the time back - I think it'll take a crash or some other misfortune for Vingegaard to lose 2 minutes - hope I'm wrong.
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • N0bodyOfTheGoat
    N0bodyOfTheGoat Posts: 6,057
    The extreme heatwave arriving over the weekend could play havok with GC, different heat tolerances and did I hear the stages can be shortened in such conditions?
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  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    The bookies have him at 3/1, which translates to about 23% (factoring in the bookie's profit margin)
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    There's really only one mountain stage that I see as a risk for Vingegaard having a bad day so chances are fairly limited.
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,700
    Jonas is in control for sure, and in contrast to Pog, has the team to help. But it's one minor crack and a devastating TT from Pog - which we know he can do - and it's very tight again...
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  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,728
    Nobody thinking that after yesterday, the odds may have changed slightly?
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    blazing_saddles said:

    Nobody thinking that after yesterday, the odds may have changed slightly?


    He was 3/1 with most bookies. He's now 2/1 with most of them.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • singleton
    singleton Posts: 2,523
    I think Vingegaard must be favourite, but there's still plenty of miles and stages to go - so anything can happen.
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,728
    RichN95. said:

    blazing_saddles said:

    Nobody thinking that after yesterday, the odds may have changed slightly?


    He was 3/1 with most bookies. He's now 2/1 with most of them.
    Well, this proves the odds have changed slightly, but I am not sure that I follow their logic.
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,927
    There's no obvious way for Pogacar to win though. Vingegaard is not bad at TTs, so could lose up to a min there. That means that Pogacar will need to find more than a minute elsewhere.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    blazing_saddles said:

    RichN95. said:

    blazing_saddles said:

    Nobody thinking that after yesterday, the odds may have changed slightly?


    He was 3/1 with most bookies. He's now 2/1 with most of them.
    Well, this proves the odds have changed slightly, but I am not sure that I follow their logic.

    Bookies don't sit around thinking logically about the state of the race. The prices move due to people betting. If people bet more money, the price shortens, if they bet less it lengthens. It will mostly be automated.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • davidof
    davidof Posts: 3,124
    edited July 2022
    blazing_saddles said:

    RichN95. said:

    blazing_saddles said:

    Nobody thinking that after yesterday, the odds may have changed slightly?


    He was 3/1 with most bookies. He's now 2/1 with most of them.
    Well, this proves the odds have changed slightly, but I am not sure that I follow their logic.
    Their logic is maths - they set odds so they don't lose money whatever happens. If the punters move to Pog they have to adjust their odds in response to that. They are not predicting the outcome; neither are a lot of punters - they are looking for a bet where the risk of losing the stake are outweighed by the odds.

    You can't even claim it is the "wisdom of crowds". Obviously 3:1 during the race yesterday looked quite tempting after the crashes and the odds moved in response to bets coming in.

    Obviously there is more than one bookmaker so they also operate in a competitive market.
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  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    The cycling betting market is also fairly small, so it doesn't take much money to move the price.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,168
    edited July 2022
    It's probably moved a bit with kruiswijk and roglic going, but it's only made things a bit more even between them. The one with a 2 minute lead obviously still has to be strong favourite.

    Possible, but I wouldn't put it higher than 20% - it would be a phenomenal week if he pulled it off.
  • commuterlegs
    commuterlegs Posts: 271
    I wonder what odds you could get on Pog winning all four jerseys, could only take a crash/covid positive from WVA to open yellow and green up......
  • jimmythecuckoo
    jimmythecuckoo Posts: 4,719
    I think he is still the man most likely.

    Team wise they are pretty equal now, but he has the previous on whacking Jumbo in a late time trial.
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  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,106
    Brave choice Jimmy - agree the withdrawals have shifted the balance somewhat but I'd still see it as a shock on a par with any performance I can remember (with a disclaimer my memory for races isn't that good)
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • jimmythecuckoo
    jimmythecuckoo Posts: 4,719
    I love an alternate view !

    For me he will gain time at some point this week in the mountains and be in touching distance for the tt at the weekend.

    It should make for a brilliant week of racing, I hope.
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  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 14,656
    jimmythecuckoo said:

    I love an alternate view !

    For me he will gain time at some point this week in the mountains and be in touching distance for the tt at the weekend.

    It should make for a brilliant week of racing, I hope.

    I think the brilliant thing is he's not going to go home wondering.
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  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    All three pundits on ITV's rest day show went for Pog to win
  • davidof
    davidof Posts: 3,124
    Pross said:

    All three pundits on ITV's rest day show went for Pog to win

    Vingeboy it is then !
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  • jimmythecuckoo
    jimmythecuckoo Posts: 4,719
    not giving up yet !!
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  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 7,579
    Think Pog has three hopes left:
    1: Crosswinds tomorrow with JV missing the splits and JV having a bad day
    2: JV parks his TT bike in the barriers on Saturday
    3: No
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,106
    Covid ?
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • N0bodyOfTheGoat
    N0bodyOfTheGoat Posts: 6,057
    edited July 2022
    DeVlaeminck said:

    Covid ?

    I was thinking about this theoretical yesterday. Normally the GC leader isn't challenged on the Paris stage. Are they not going to test the leader (or anyone else) before the stage starts? Simply say they aren't infectious if they test positive (and then myseriously many riders who congratulate the winner test positive next week)? Hand the yellow jersey to the highest place GC rider not positive before Sunday?

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  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 14,656
    Some teams are only testing if there are symptoms. J-V have been testing routinely. They might just skip it on Saturday evening and Sunday morning, I reckon
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  • drhaggis
    drhaggis Posts: 1,150
    Covid is probably the likeliest way for Pogaçar to win. I can't see anyone happy with that. It's worse than a disqualification from a doping offense, because you can't even tell yourself you deserve it because the other guy got caught cheating.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    I don't image there is going to be any more testing until the end of the Tour
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,439
    It's done. He might even lose time in the TT
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  • MattFalle
    MattFalle Posts: 11,644
    its small, tiny, tiny s-m-all consoltionbbutmost deserved winner of the white jersey there.
    .
    The camera down the willy isn't anything like as bad as it sounds.

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